Madagascar. FAST Update 3 / June August Mag. Hannelore Wallner

Transcription

1 Berne, September 2001 F A S T Madagascar FAST Update 3 / 2001 June August 2001 Mag. Hannelore Wallner Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs

2 Contents Risk Assessment Madagascar 3 Analytical Framework 6 Chronology 7 Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 2

3 Risk Assessment Madagascar 1 Based on the FAST Analytical Framework there is no likelihood of armed conflict in Madagascar in the upcoming three to six months. However, the agitations evolving around the presidential election bear the possibility of an increase in localised violence in urban areas. Factors increasing the potential for localised violence In our last update we outlined the centralisation of power in the hands of the President, demonstrated by the election of the senators. The leading position of the Arema party was reconfirmed in June when Arema won all 6 seats in the election of the provincial governors. Thus, it should come to no surprise that the preparations for the presidential elections, presumably taking place at the end of this year, have caused some concerns as President Ratsiraka announced on June 26 that he would campaign again. Insecurity factors for the near future are demonstrated in the following events: Uncertainty around the presidential election as no official date has yet been announced also there are rumours of the government wanting to change the constitution in order to confine the suffrage to the grands électeurs. 2 University teachers and students began a strike to voice their critique against the government which is destabilizing the current situation in Madagascar. The fact that police is trying to suppress the insurgent university staff and striking students by randomly arresting people only further adds to instability. Journalists have also been targets of harassment and unfounded arrest. The frustration of the people which has presently increased through the unfair and biased treatment by the police, and the fact that the government is allowing 1 The following assessment is based on the analysis of events and developments during the past three months along the FAST Analytical Framework for Madagascar. 2 The grands électeurs include the mayors and provincial councillors, half of them being members of Arema. Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 3

4 erratic police behaviour and human rights violations, could in view of the upcoming elections lead to more violence and riots especially in Antananarivo and the capitals of the provinces. Even though there is no likelihood of nationwide armed conflict in the short-term, we see a potential for localised violence in the main urban areas. The growing availability of small arms could further fuel this violence. Positive tendencies for a political change Despite the destabilisation potential due to government and police action, activities of the political opposition and the civil society are counter-balancing violence and assure us of a positive long-term trend. Even if the opposition will not win the elections this time, there is a great likelihood that they will consolidate their power in order to bring about long-term change in the political sphere. The threat to Ratsiraka s position from within Arema and from opposition politicians could lead to an increase of repression in the short-term. Still, we are convinced that in the longterm a strengthened civil society and a more active opposition will have a stabilising effect on the country, as it is a move towards more democratic means of politics that the present government will be unlikely to withstand for a sustained period. The following positive signs led to our assessment: First, the Christian authorities have enforced their claim regarding the characteristics of a future president, making clear that they are not satisfied with the President and that they want a change. Still, they decided not to support one particular candidate. Second, the engagement of the churches and NGOs in the preparation of the election. FFKM, Justice et Paix and the Comité national d observation des elections (CNOE) have organised joint seminars to unify their forces to prepare the monitoring of the presidential elections. With the support of Christians they plan to cover all ballot boxes throughout the whole of Madagascar to prevent any fraud. Third, the presence of the opposition in the election campaign. Many opposition parties have already announced the participation in the presidential election and nominated their candidates. Other parties and organisations have announced Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 4

5 that they will support Marc Ravalomanana, the major of Antananarivo, who is an independent candidate. Finally, the opposition faction within Arema is becoming more obvious in challenging Ratsiraka. 1 Arema executives, ex-officials and former Ratsiraka supporters are now openly criticising the politics of the President. While acknowledging the potential of the above-analysed events to escalate conflict and tensions in Madagascar in the short-term, especially in the run-up to the elections, we are assured of a positive trend towards building a strong civil society and political opposition, which can only be interpreted as a stabilising factor in the long-term. 1 Vice Premier Minister Pierrot Rajaonarivelo has announced that he wants to campaign for Arema in the presidential elections. In case Ratsiraka does not accept that he will support Marc Ravalomanana. Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 5

6 Analytical Framework F A S T ROOT CAUSES Historic History of manipulated identity along different lines Regional (highland / côtiers) Ethnic (region vs. region, Malagasy vs. Foreign) Social (Merina / others / descendants of slaves) Spread of resources by a feudalist pattern (due to identity along social status) Political / Institutional Authoritarian rule (legacy of socialist adapted divide et impera) Socio-demographic Unequal opportunities Regional disparities / rural-urban Economic Bad infrastructure Insufficient transportation networks Export driven economic system depending on agricultural (primary) goods Unequal spread of resources Natural disasters Famine Deforestation Land degradation Ecological PROXIMATE CAUSES Political / Governance Constitution 1998 and its negative implications: Centralisation of Power of President Politicisation of ethnicity Ethnisation of politics Growing number of regional strongmen Corruption Security Isolated clashes between different regional and ethnic groups Decreasing state control in the provinces Misuse of new resources for police and armed forces Socio-Demographic Population pressure Poverty Seasonal Famine Economic Structural Dependence on foreign aid Dependence on terms of trade for agricultural goods and heightened vulnerability INTERVENING FACOTRS DECREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONFLICT Opposition politicians trying to break up political structure NGOs and Christian organisations uniting: information of public and preparation of election monitoring Shared cultural customs and tradition of peaceful conflict resolution (esp. on the local level) Emancipation of civil society (long-term) Foreign aid and well reflected (non-ethnic) allocation thereof Economic reforms (IMF) if working INTERVENING FACTORS INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONFLICT Centralisation of power with the President Continued execution of constitutionally implied (politicised) ethnisation Continued process of ethnisation of opposition parties Small arms proliferation and access to small arms Insufficient emancipation of civil society (short-term) Allocation of foreign aid along ethnic / regional lines Corruption A R M E D C O N F L I C T Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 6

7 Chronology Reuters/IRIN June June 2001 August 2001 Crime and Violence A hundred men from a young man's family who was shot to death by the police forces at Amboasary, equipped with locally made guns and spears threatened the police station of Amboasary. Police forces from surrounding areas were called to help their colleagues. (25.06.) Several students were arrested by the police after throwing stones at buildings of the University of Mahajanga. (25.06.) The office buildings of the municipalities of Toliara city were burnt by unidentified persons. Several Molotov cocktails were found on the site, nobody committed to it. (30.06.) Public Unrest / Strikes The University teachers are on strike since may Lead by the union Syndicat des Enseignants Chercheurs de l'enseignement Superieur (SECES). The administrative staff of the University of Fianarantsoa joined the University teachers who have been striking since April 2001 and who are backed by SECES as well as by some students.(21.06.) The administrative staff of the University of Antananarivo joined the teachers who are on strike. Together they founded the Comité de Coordination de la Greve Universitaire (CCGU). (21.06.) The civil servants main union (Federation Nationale des Agents e l'etat, FNAE) decided to support the university strikes. (23.06.) CCGU declared that it will boycott all the examinations that will take place during the month of July. (28.06.) While on strike, the University teachers of Fianarantsoa elected a rector as opponent to the rector who was nominated by the government. (29.06.) The employees of the state owned telecommunication company Telecommunication Malagasy (TELMA) went on strike to protest against the modalities of privatisation. (29.06.) Government / Presidency / Opposition movements The governors elections of the provinces autonomes took place on 10 June in Toliara, Mahajanga, Fianarantsoa and Toamasina. The elections in the other two regions Antananarivo and Antsiranana were postponed due to discrepancies of the quorum and were then held on 12 June. AREMA won all chairs. The opposition parties boycotted the festivities of June 26 organised by the authorities, for the occasion the independence day. Tabera Randriamanantsoa, former leader of the Federalist movement from 1991, member of the parliament in Farafangana, and member of AREMA, claimed for a revision of the constitution in favour of more autonomy for the provinces. (21.06.) Voninahitsy Jean Eugene, an important member of the Rassemblement pour la Sociale democratie (RPSD) an opposition party, was released after six months in jail. (23.06.) Following his condemnation, Jean Eugene Voninahitsy lost his position as MP and the rights to be re-elected. He intends to ask for a repeal in order to recover his civil rights and to be able to be reelected. (23.06.) During the festivities of the Independence day the state owned electricity company, JIRAMA, switched off the electricity at the Place du 13 mai, where the city mayor of Antananarivo organised festivities. (26.06.) Presidential Election preparations Jean Eugene Voninahitsy proposed to be the candidate of the unified opposition at the presidential elections at the end of the year. President Ratsiraka announced to stand for elections again in November at the presidential elections. This will be his fifth campaign for presidential elections. (26.06.) Ratsirahonana, leader of the AVI party, declared that the opposition parties have not yet announced a candidate for the presidential election. (27.06.) July Crime and Violence 10 students from the University of Fianarantsoa were arrested by the Gendarmerie Nationale at Ihosy where they went to see the solar eclipse. They were accused of doing propaganda for the University strike. One of the students was seriously injured. (10.07.) 6 persons were arrested by the Gendarmerie Nationale after about hundred men tried to harass the local gendarmerie post. Some protesters shot with locally made guns at the police. One policeman Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 7

8 was wounded. (11.07.) 9 students were arrested by the police forces following fights between pro and anti strike students at the University of Fianarantsoa. (11.07.) During a CCGU protest march in Fianarantsoa some protesters were beaten up by the police. According to SECES, 6 students disappeared, one of them a disabled female. Two students were arrested and one of them was severely injured. (27.07.) Public Unrest / Strikes The students of the Ecole Nationale de l'administration went on strike as from 2 July to protest against the firing of the director of the ENAM. After two months of striking, students and University teachers in Antsiranana agreed to carry on the courses and to finish the academic year. The CCGU wants the dismissal of Joseph Sidson, the Minister of Higher Education. Employees of the sugar factory SIRAMA and the farmers who provide it with sugar cane have been on strike since June to protest against the non-payment of their wages. SECES organised a meeting of its members from the six universities where they discussed the strategy following the minister's refusal to meet the representatives of the Union. They decided to carry on with strikes. (18.07.) CCGU refused to accept the decisions taken by the rectors of the six universities of Madagascar: They want direct negotiations with the Minister. The strikes continue. (13.07.) After the Minister of Higher Education refused to receive CCGU representatives, CCGU decided to carry on with the strikes at the University of Antananarivo. (26.07.) As a protest against the violence of the police, three teachers of five composing the panel managing the University of Fianarantsoa resigned. (30.07.) After the clashes with the police at the University of Fianarantsoa, CCGU and the SECES decided to go on strike again to protest against the arrests. CCGU had decided to stop the strike a week before, working under the authority of the "illegally elected" rector. At the same time a panel of teachers, "legally appointed" by the government is supposed to run the University. (30.07.) Government / Presidency / Opposition movements Maurice Tsiavonona, a former Ratsiraka supporter and famous journalist at the Ratsiraka radio station RTV, criticised his former boss declaring that Ratsiraka is reproducing the bad habits of the Second Republic, especially the authoritarian and centralised way of management and the business activities of Ratsiraka's children. (03.07.) The minister of Higher Education declared the election of the rector of the University of Fianarantsoa illegal. (04.07.) The Ministry of Health Care has not been paying the wages of 161 of its employees for six months. Honoré Rakotomanana, President of the Senate and Ratsiraka supporter, declared that the Autonomous Provinces will die if important financial reforms are not rapidly planned. (07.07.) Albert Zafy accused some Ratsiraka supporters to have stolen many thousand millions from the sugar company SIRAMA in order to fund AREMA and its candidates. SIRAMA is in serious financial difficulties. (12.07.) Laurent Ramaroson, member of parliament and secretary general of the opposition party AVI, accused the government of harassing the Merina ethnic agents. (13.07.) The Ministry of Higher Education appointed a new rector at the University of Fianarantsoa. A panel had replaced the previous rector appointed by the authorities, who resigned officially for health reasons. The new rector is the head of the panel, a member of the local branch of SECES and spokesman of the strikers in Fianarantsoa. The strikers were interpreting this as a manoeuvre from the government to divide them. (23.07.) Vice Prime Minister Pierrot Rajaonarivelo declared that the government had not created specific taxes for Marc Ravalomanana's Tiko enterprise. The tax exemption agreement between Tiko and the government will end in October and will not be renewed. (30.07.) Election preparations Norbert Lala Ratsirahonana, the leader of the opposition party AVI, declared that he will stand for elections at the end of the year. (02.07.) Pierre Andriananatenaina, an opposition party leader, criticised the Cellule de Crise as being a useless party. Since Voninahitsy s release from jail they have been unable to assign a candidate for the presidential election. (10.07.) The opposition parties plan to present six candidates (one in each province) in order to impede Ratsiraka to win more than 50% at the first turn. Then the opposition could unite for the second turn of the presidential election and present a common candidate. (16.07.) Foreign Relations Ratsiraka declared that Mauritius economic success was relying on the collaboration with Apartheid South Africa. Paul Beranger, Mauritius Vice P.M. and a friend of Ratsiraka criticised Ratsiraka's interpretation. (31.07.) Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 8

9 August Crime and Violence Two students arrested during the protest march organised by the CCGU in Fianarantsoa were released from jail. (01.08.) More than 30 bandits were involved in stealing about 200 cows in Fenoarivo (Ihosy), 18 of thieves carried guns. (10.08.) In a suburb of Fianarantsoa city 70 cows were stolen. 12 of the 18 bandits that were arrested carried guns. (14.08.) Public Unrest / Strikes The majority of the teachers are back on duty at the University of Antananarivo. Nonetheless, the CCGU is looking for a new strategy to obtain their claims. (07.08.) The panel of teachers (Direction Collegiale) appointed by the Ministry of Higher Education, which manages the University of Fianarantsoa resigned. The University of Fianarantsoa is since closed. (22.08.) Government / Presidency / Opposition movements Marc Ravalomanana, Antananarivo's city mayor, provided food and tents to 505 homeless persons from Antohomadinika, one of the poorest quarters of Antananarivo inhabited mainly by slave descendants, where 107 houses were burnt down by unknown. (02.08.) Herivelona Ramanantsoa, Ministre de l'amenagement du Territoire, himself is a slave descendant and Pascal Rakotomavo, Antananarivo province governor, donated gifts to the homeless people of Antohomadinika. (03.08.) The leaders of the Conseil National Electoral (CNE) were renewed. The CNE is an independent body in charge of monitoring elections. The three new leaders were appointed by President Ratsiraka, the Senate and the parliament, leaving the CNE heavily controlled by AREMA. (03.08.) A former supporter of Ratsiraka, Reverend Andrianalijohn, called on the chief of the army, Marcel Ranjeva, to seize the power and to form a government composed by representatives from all the political parties. (03.08.) James Ramaroson, president of Ordre des Journalistes (OMJ), complained at the Observatoire de la vie politique (SEFAFI), an independent local NGO, about officials putting pressure on journalists and threatening them. Journalists are also frequently summoned to the police station. (09.08.) Slave descendants from the poorest quarters of Antananarivo created the association ZMM (Zatovo Miaradia amin'ny Mazava - Young people walking in the day light). They accuse the Minister de l'amenagement du territoire, Herivelona Ramanantsoa, as well as the singer Rossy, to manipulate them in favour of Ratsiraka during each election. (18.08.) The FFKM claimed the revision of the Constitution by demanding that the civic associations, including the churches, would be able to directly propose laws to the National Assembly. (21.08). Tabera Randriamanantsoa, a former federalist and a fervent AREMA member, was assigned as the new president of the association Amitié Lybio Malgache. The association was dying during Zafy's presidency now spreading again all over Madagascar. It is directed mainly towards the Muslim communities (10% of the Malagasy population) and is funded by Libya. (27.08.) The Bemiringa association, created by the singer Rossy, linked to the AREMA and designated to integrate the slave descendants of Antananarivo, claims to have members. (25.08.) Election preparations The Antananarivo branch of Leader Fanilo proposed for Herizo Razafimahaleo, the party leader, to be the candidate for the presidential elections. Manandafy Rakotonirina, leader of the MFM, Party for Madagascar's Progress, one of the main opposition parties and member of the Cellule de Crise, announced that his party will present a candidate to the next presidential elections. (02.08.) FFKM published a document to make aware of the fact that the president has to be elected by all the citizens. This is to prevent that only the Grands Electeurs will be allowed to vote, which was Ratsiraka s plan according to rumours. (07.08.) Patrick Rajaonary, a businessman who stands for elections, declared that he supports the CCGU. The FFKM (Council of Christian Churches), Justice et Paix (Catholic) and the Comité national d observation des élections (CNOE) organised joint seminars to unify their actions in order to monitor the presidential elections. (10.08.) Marc Ravalomanana announced that he will stand for election. He is the sixth candidate after Ratsiraka, Ratsirahonanana, Rajaonary, Tahina Jacky, Daniel Rajakoba. (06.08.) Rakotomalala Manan'Ignace, currently president of the NGO Manaovasoa and former leader of the AKFM party which supports Ratsiraka, called on the opposition parties to support Marc Ravalomanana. Until now he succeeded to pursue maitre Willy Razafinjato to resign in favour of Marc Ravalomamana. (11.08.) Vice PM Pierrot Rajaonarivelo intends to stand for elections which will generate a major crisis within AREMA. In case Ratsiraka will not let him campaign he will support Marc Ravalomananan. (13.08.) Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 9

10 Honoré Rakotomanana, the president of Senate and a Ratsiraka supporter declared that "the president will be elected by all the citizens above 18 years old" and not by the Grands Electeurs. The FFKM declared that it will not support any candidate during the presidential election. (13.08.) Despite some calls to support Marc Ravalomanana, Norbert Lala Ratsirahonana, the AVI leader, maintains his candidateship. (14.08.) Albert Zafy has not yet confirmed campaigning at the presidential election. He is still mobilising funding to support his campaign. (16.08.) Some members of the former Forces Vives Rasalama which used to support Albert Zafy, declared that they will support Marc Ravalomanana during the presidential election. (22.08.) AREMA will organise regional conventions in Toamasina, in Mahajanga, and in Antananarivo; after these regional conventions the party will present its candidate for the presidential election. The Consortium des Observateurs des Elections plans to cover all the ballot posts in the 110 districts composing Madagascar during the presidential election. The Council of Ministers decided that every candidate must give 125 millions of FMG, with this it will fund the printing of bulletins. Only the candidates who win more than 10% of votes will be reimbursed. The Minister of Education, Jacquit Simon, declared that the enemies are inside AREMA. They are those people who spread the rumours that Ratsiraka won't campaign at the presidential elections. (25.08.) Despite everybody s expectation the Council of Ministers did not announce the date of the presidential elections after its weekly meeting. (29.08.) Foreign Relations Italy closed its Embassy in Anatananarivo for unknown reasons. (28.08.) Swiss Peace Foundation Institute for Conflict Resolution / SDC Department of Foreign Affairs 10