Democratization Introduction and waves

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1 Democratization Introduction and University College Dublin 18 January 2011

2

3 Outline

4 Democracies over time

5 Period Democracy Collapse (Huntington 1991, as cited in Kurzman 1998)

6 Transitions over time (Doorenspleet 2000: 398)

7 Democracies over time

8 Outline

9 Slow wave until 1920s.

10 Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc.

11 Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc. Competition first, participation later.

12 Slow wave until 1920s. Related to modernization, urbanization, etc. Competition first, participation later. Example: The Netherlands (1848)

13 The Netherlands Economic development = burghers

14 The Netherlands Economic development = burghers Burghers dissatisfied with financial situation Belgian conflict Textile industry subsidies Lack of income from Indonesia Lack of transparency

15 The Netherlands Economic development = burghers Burghers dissatisfied with financial situation Belgian conflict Textile industry subsidies Lack of income from Indonesia Lack of transparency No protection of new Protestant church

16 The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility

17 The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility 1840 New slightly more liberal constitution = king resigns Ne veut-on plus de moi? On n a qu à le dire; je n ai pas besoin d eux.

18 The Netherlands 4 ministers resign - ministerial responsibility 1840 New slightly more liberal constitution = king resigns 1845 Group of MPs propose constitutional reforms, but are rejected

19 The Netherlands Further economic problems around 1845: Potato harvest fails Food prices increase Unemployment on the rise Riots in the north

20 The Netherlands Further economic problems around 1845: Potato harvest fails Food prices increase Unemployment on the rise Riots in the north Liberal prime minister resigns considering new constitutional changes too limited

21 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe

22 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution

23 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution 1848 New constitution

24 The Netherlands 1848 Revolutions throughout Europe King Willem II gets scared and appoints liberal Thorbecke to write new constitution 1848 New constitution 1860s Conflicts between king and parliament settle informal rules

25 The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population)

26 The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population) 1887 Constitutional change = ability

27 The Netherlands Voting rights for men over 23 y.o. with a minimum of direct taxes (11% of population) 1887 Constitutional change = ability 1894 Electoral campaign around suffrage rights Liberals in favour of extension Conservatives, Catholics, Anti-Revolutionaries against

28 The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910)

29 The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910) 1917 Constitutional change: men above 23 can vote (In exchange for Christian schools)

30 The Netherlands 1896 New electoral law (23% to 30% in 1910) 1917 Constitutional change: men above 23 can vote 1919 Female suffrage

31 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy

32 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments

33 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments Competition first, participation later

34 The Netherlands Noticeable features: Related to modernization of economy Role of international developments Competition first, participation later Very slow transition ( )

35 Outline

36 After World War II.

37 After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization

38 After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization but also transitions in Latin America.

39 After World War II. Related to war victory and decolonization but also transitions in Latin America. Example: Venezuela (1958)

40 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies

41 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms

42 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms 1936 General strike brutally suppressed; opposition stymied

43 Venezuela 1935 Dictator Gómez dies Successor López introduces limited reforms 1936 General strike brutally suppressed; opposition stymied Economic, but not political reforms

44 Venezuela 1941 Medina succeeds López Further economic reform hindered by war

45 Venezuela 1941 Medina succeeds López Further economic reform hindered by war 1944 Elections won by democratic party 1945 Medina puts forward liberal Escalante as presidential candidate

46 Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead

47 Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead 1945 Opposition and junior officers overthrow Medina Junior ranks unhappy with cronyism and lack of military professionalism

48 Venezuela Due to illness, Escalante cannot stand; puppet of Medina instead 1945 Opposition and junior officers overthrow Medina Junior ranks unhappy with cronyism and lack of military professionalism 1946 Junta implements new electoral law

49 Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers

50 Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers 1948 Military coup Restoration of 1936 constitution

51 Venezuela 1947 Election victory for Betancourt Implements new constitution social justice and better conditions for the workers 1948 Military coup Restoration of 1936 constitution 1950 Junta leader assassinated for refusal to implement full dictatorship

52 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president

53 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment

54 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment Support from US government 1957 Referendum shows 85% support for president

55 Venezuela 1952 Election halted; Pérez appoints himself president Concentration camps University shut down Labor unions harrassed Elite enrichment Support from US government 1957 Referendum shows 85% support for president 1958 Massive demonstrations; Pérez flees

56 Venezuela 1958 Betancourt wins presidential elections

57 Venezuela 1958 Betancourt wins presidential elections More inclusive approach to government, including concessions to Conservatives Catholic Church Military

58 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military

59 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure

60 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure Role of oil and self-enrichment

61 Venezuala Noticeable features: Role of military Role of popular pressure Role of oil and self-enrichment Inclusive ( pacted?) solution

62 Outline

63 Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?).

64 Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?). Elections first, rule of law later (?)

65 Beginning with Portugal, Greece, Spain in 1970s and in early 1990s the collapse of the Soviet Union (or Fourth Wave?). Elections first, rule of law later (?) Examples: Spain (1975) & Indonesia (1998)

66 Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain

67 Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain Authoritarian / military regime, including Systematic suppression of dissident views Imprisonment of opponents Forced labour in prisons

68 Spain Francisco Franco Bahamonde, head of state in Spain Authoritarian / military regime, including Systematic suppression of dissident views Imprisonment of opponents Forced labour in prisons 1969 Designates Prince Juan Carlos de Borbon as successor. Dies November 20, 1975.

69 Spain Carlos announces constitutional monarchy in coronation speech.

70 Spain Carlos announces constitutional monarchy in coronation speech. Elites divided in: Francoists Radical leftist opposition Reform-minded moderates (incl. king)

71 Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government.

72 Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government. Struggles with: Increase in ETA attacks Violent street protests and riots Wave of strikes in large industries and public sector Strengthening / unification of anti-francoist opposition

73 Spain Former Franco prime-minister Navarro as first head of government. Struggles with: Increase in ETA attacks Violent street protests and riots Wave of strikes in large industries and public sector Strengthening / unification of anti-francoist opposition July 1977, forced to resign by king.

74 Spain Christian-democrat Suarez runs reform-minded government

75 Spain Christian-democrat Suarez runs reform-minded government 1977 First democratic elections 1978 New Spanish Constitution

76 Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions.

77 Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions Col Tejero of the Guardia Civil occupies the Congress of Deputies

78 Spain Increased terrorist violence from ETA and Maoists and internal party struggles in UCD leads to renewed tensions Col Tejero of the Guardia Civil occupies the Congress of Deputies The next day he surrenders to police

79 Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition

80 Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition Pacted transition - moderates cooperating

81 Spain Noticeable features: Quick but solid transition Pacted transition - moderates cooperating Role of popular pressure

82 Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of.

83 Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of Implementation of guided Based on nationalism, religion, and communism

84 Indonesia 1950 Declaration of Independence. Foundation of Implementation of guided Based on nationalism, religion, and communism 1966 Military coup after supposed communist coup

85 Indonesia Dwifungsi of army: both defenders of the nation and as a social-political force in national development.

86 Indonesia Dwifungsi of army: both defenders of the nation and as a social-political force in national development. Pancasila: one God; civilized humanity; guided ; social justice.

87 Indonesia

88 Indonesia Economic crisis and waning popularity of president Student protests Megawati Sukarnoputri

89 Indonesia Economic crisis and waning popularity of president Student protests Megawati Sukarnoputri Students occupy parliament Ministers refuse to join new cabinet Army withdraws support (?)

90 Indonesia 1999 Parliamentary elections 2004 Presidential elections

91 Indonesia 1999 Parliamentary elections 2004 Presidential elections Rampant corruption Partial military reform

92 Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy

93 Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy Link popular pressure - elite actions

94 Indonesia Noticeable features: Importance of economy Link popular pressure - elite actions Corruption and military reform as limits on consolidation

95 Outline

96 What do you think comparative politics is about?

97 Cases studies vs comparative

98 Cases studies vs comparative Small N vs large N

99 Cases studies vs comparative Small N vs large N Techniques and methodologies History Interviews Statistics Theory and models Formal theory

100 Reading questions Some questions you might ask when reading: Is the paper theoretical, empirical, or policy oriented?

101 Reading questions Some questions you might ask when reading: Is the paper theoretical, empirical, or policy oriented? If empirical, what theories or hypotheses are tested? If theoretical, what theories or hypotheses are posited?

102 Reading questions: empirical What cases are being studied? How many?

103 Reading questions: empirical What cases are being studied? How many? What methodologies have been used? On what evidence are the conclusions based?

104 Reading questions What are the main conclusions?

105 Reading questions What are the main conclusions? How does this relate to / compare with the other readings?

106 Outline

107 topic This course discusses the various theories explaining: why some countries make a transition to and others do not

108 topic This course discusses the various theories explaining: why some countries make a transition to and others do not and why some new democracies survive and others do not.

109 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of

110 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project

111 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project Research paper

112 Structure Lectures and seminars 1. General introduction 2. Transitions to 3. Consolidation of Group project Research paper Syllabus

113 Readings Background / textbook style Classics Applied, contemporary Example country

114 Readings: math Statistics Formal theory

115 Readings: math Statistics Formal theory Don t panic!

116 Assignments Reaction papers

117 Assignments Reaction papers = create groups

118 Assignments Reaction papers = create groups paper Deadline proposal: 22/3 Deadline: 26/4

119 Contact Newman Building, room F304 No regular office hours

120 Outline

121 Plagiarism

122 Plagiarism Details can be found in the syllabus.

123 References in text Transitions to have to be seen as a dynamic process (Rustow 1970). The divisions in political science are detrimental to scientific progress (Pye 1990: 3-4).

124 Quotations in text Thus, today, neither content nor method provides an essential core for the discipline as a whole (Pye 1990: 4).

125 References: article Pye, Lucian Political Science and the Crisis of Authoritarianism. American Political Science Review 84: 3-19.

126 References: book Shively, W. Phillips The craft of political research. 6th ed. London: Prentice-Hall.

127 References: internet Schafersman, Steven An Introduction to Science: Scientific thinking and the scientific method. downloaded 18 January 2008.

128 References: internet Schafersman, Steven An Introduction to Science: Scientific thinking and the scientific method. downloaded 18 January and make sure you have a print-out or copy saved.

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