Democracy. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 1

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1 Democracy Definitions: The rule by many (as oppossed to Monarchy, or Oligarchy Aristotle). Form of government exhibiting high levels of contestation and participation (Robert Dahl). Form of government in which who rules is decided by elections.(przeworski) 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 1

2 Democracy is rare By any definition, Democracy is historically rare, though recently, it appears ubiquitous. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 2

3 What explains why some countries are democractic and others are not? Cultural explanations Social/Economic explanations Institutional Explanation 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 3

4 Cultural explanations Democracy depends on certain attitudes (equality, individual freedom, non-violent conflict resolution, rule of law, etc.) that are alledged to be inherent in cultures and inconsistent with others. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 4

5 Social/Economic Explanations Modernization Theory Class Analysis 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 5

6 Modernization Theory Societies develop through a series of stages 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 6

7 Strong Relationship between wealth and democracy 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 7 Source: Przeworski and Limongi (1997)

8 But is this because: Countries are more likely to become democratic as they become rich. Or Countries that become democratic are more likely to stay democratic if they are rich 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 8

9 Modernization Theory As (countries) gevelop, social structure becomes complex, labor processes begin to require active cooperation of employees, and new groups emerge and organize. As a result, the system can no longer be effectively run by command: the society is too complex, techological change endows the direct producers with some autonomy and private information, civil society emerges, and dictatorial forms of control lose their effectiveness. (Przeworski and Limongi, 1997:157). 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 9

10 Dictatorship is more common in poor countries, Democracy is more common in Rich countries Country Years Under Different Regimes Total number of years under regime Years under Aut Years Under Dem Per Capita GDP (1985 PPP) 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 10

11 Virtually all rich countries are democracies Share of democracies as a function of wealth years of democracy/(years of dem + years of dictatorship) Wealth 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 11

12 These results are consistent with Modernization Theory, but Are countries Democractic because the got Rich? Possible that rich countries have something else that makes them inclined to be democracies, in which case, the observed correlation between wealth and democracy is accidental. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 12

13 If modernization theory was correct, we would observe Poor countries that were stable autocracies until they got sufficiently rich, then they would become democracies. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 13

14 Alternative Explanations Rich countries have more educated people, democracy functions better with an educated electorate. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 14

15 Poor countries are not stable Number of Regime Transitions as a Function of Wealth #(Dem) #(Aut) # transitions /21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 15

16 The kind of transition a country experiences is a function of wealth A transition to authoritarianism becomes less likely and transition to democracy becomes more likely as wealth increases Probability of Regime Transitions as a function of Wealth Prob(Transition) Per Capita GDP (1985 PPP) p(dem) p(aut) p(transition) 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 16

17 So, we observe countries at all levels of development experimenting with democracy But if a country is rich and it become democratic (for some reason) it is likely to stay a democracy. Rich dictatorships are also more stable than poor dictatorships, But because rich democracies are MORE stable than rich dictatorships, rich dictatorships will eventually fail and when they do, they are likely to stay democracies. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 17

18 Why are rich democracies stable? Choice between democracy and autocracy can be thought of as a choice between a system where you are guaranteed a minimal standard of consumption (democracy), vs. a system where you win or lose everything (autocracy). When you have a lot (I.e. when you are rich), getting a bigger share only effects your welfare a little, where as losing everything could be disastrous. So, if you re rich, autocracy is a big gamble, but when you re poor, its not. 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 18

19 Alternative explanation There are more educated people in rich countries than poor countries. Democracy works better when the electorate is educated. Therefore, democracies survive because of high levels of education, not wealth. How would you test this argument? 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 19

20 Institutional Explanations Future lectures 3/21/2002 Comparative Politics NYU 20