Repertoires and Violence in Contentious Politics. Spath 385 Arab Politics & Society Spring 2010

Transcription

1 Repertoires and Violence in Contentious Politics Spath 385 Arab Politics & Society Spring 2010

2 Defining a Repertoire of Contention Contentious repertoires: arrays of contentious performances that are currently known and available within some set of political actors. (Tilly & Tarrow, 2006) Set of tools available for use by political activists that the general public would recognize as a form of political protest. BRAINSTORMING repertoires in various settings

3 Technology in the Repertoire Avoiding Technological Determinism Innovations in communications technology must be analyzed dynamically operates in two opposing ways: lowers the costs of coordination among activists who are already connected with each other; facilitates mobilization BUT excludes those who lack access to the new means of communication, increasing communications inequality and prevents potential activists from joining Facilitate larger state coordination and the ability for states to use repression.

4 Violence in the Repertoire Differentating between Conflict and Violence Difference in degree and in kind (strategy) Popular View Islamic activists are radical fanatics engaged in irrational, deviant, unpredictable violence Does not explain why violence is used in certain places at certain times More social-scientific view we can at least try to explain why we observe the use of violence when and where we do by examining human behavior and political context

5 Protests in Bahrain ( ) Fred Lawson reading 2 Key Questions: Why did discontent lead to mass protest WHEN it did? Why did it take on the different forms (modes) of contention it did at different times? Q1 4 key developments in 93 and 94 Merchants & Shopkeepers (Shi i) replaced by state-run business Entrepreneurs w/ skilled domestic labor replaced by foreign labor Shrinking economy prevented development of industrial sector Social regulation of women affected prospects for jobs and higher ed. TRIGGER EVENTS imprisoning 3 prominent Shi i Activists

6 Protests in Bahrain Dynamic Repertoires Early 90s contention petitions to the ruler Example: Elite Petition vs. Popular Petition to restore parliament and release activists same goals, different approach Changes in repertoires as RESPONSE to state behavior Regime response was mildly coercive; not accommodating People took to the streets using localized mobilization (Shi i neighborhoods) Still petitions, but demonstrations & sit-ins became the dominant mode of contention Followed by increased selective repression Pacting for a Pacified Public Deal between detained influential societal leaders and the regime Short period of passivity Failure of Pact, targeted harsh repression violence as strategy Collective punishment and back to demonstrations Leadership change and moderation in repressive tactics

7 Hafez & Wiktorowicz Violence in Egyptian Islamic Movement 2 Questions Specific Why did Islamists turn to violence in EIM? General -Why do social movements utilize violence as contention given the presence of other tactics? What explains variation across countries and over time? 2 Forms of the Popular View Ideational Factors - Political or Religious ideologies can completely explain the use of violence. Psychological Factors - Socioeconomic background tells us something about grievances and therefore participation violent groups (deprivation theories)

8 Hafez & Wiktorowicz Violence in Egyptian Islamic Movement It is more effective to view violent activists as rational actors operating within a context of opportunities and constraints that inform decisions about appropriate tactics to use. Political Opportunity Structure Focus on TWO Accessibility to institutionalized politics o Access versus Exclusion State Repression o Timing and Targeting What does this mean for political strategy?

9 TARGETING Selective Indiscrim. Timing and Targeting Pre-Emptive TIMING Reactionary FACILITATE VIOLENCE DETER VIOLENCE

10 Hafez & Wiktorowicz 3 Important Changes in Pol. Opportunity Structure contributed to emergence of violence as a tactic First, Egypt witnessed the deliberalization of institutional politics in the 1990s (esp. Ikhwan) Second, the authorities in Egypt began to dismantle the network of the Gama a in Upper Egypt Finally, repression against the Gama a was indiscriminate;

11 Empirical Work - Event Analysis The fundamental unit of analysis in this study is the contentious event. Event analysis is widely recognized as a tool for studying waves of mobilization. It is essentially a way of tracking over time the rise and fall of particular types of events and the features associated with them (Beissinger 2002: 42).

12 Subject Verb - Object Transcription subject verb object the same night the mob (gathered) mob #gather none the mob committed great violences in Surry-Street, in the Strand, particularly at the Coach Office, not a window was left with a whole pane of glass mob #break owner of Coach Office

13 My research team found multiple accounts of these attacks in 1829 s Times of London. Here Example is how we transcribed from Charles and classified Tilly s the major Study actions on within Great a cutting Britain incident on May 4 th : Transcription Verb Broad Verb Category certain evil-disposed persons riotously assembled assemble move entered the dwellings of the journeymen silk weavers enter move and maliciously cut and destroyed the silk in the looms destroy attack #end #end end a reward of 200L is hereby offered offer negotiate The left hand verb presents our simplified transcription of the phrase s central action. The right hand column shows our placement in one of eight extremely broad categories of verbs: attack, control, end, meet, move, negotiate, support, and other. (More on verb categories in a moment.) Source: Tilly. Contentious Performances Chapter 2. Unpublished draft 2007.

14 Cumulative Number of Events 1987 Source: Data Supplied by Mark Beissinger Empirical Work Event Data Analysis Figure 5.4: Demonstrations and Violent Events in the Soviet Union and Successor States, Violent Events Demonstrations Year

15 From Hector Forero s Student Memorandum