Political and Social Transition in Egypt. Magued Osman

Transcription

1 Political and Social Transition in Egypt Magued Osman

2 Content Methodology Main Results Arab Spring and its consequences Perceptions towards democracy Economic status and satisfaction Corruption and trust Religion, political rights and gender

3 Methodology

4 Methodology The poll was conducted on a sample of 1574 Egyptian citizens in the age group 18 years and over. Seven Egyptian governorates were selected to reflect the Metropolitan area (Cairo, Alexandria, urban Giza), Lower Egypt (Damitta, Kafr el-sheikh), Upper Egypt (Fayoum, and Assuit). 62 PSUs were selected from the 7 governorates to collect the data. The data collection was conducted during the period from November 5 th to 24 th, 2014.

5 Sample Characteristics Residence Gender Urban Rural Male Female <30 Percentage 45% 55% 46% 54% 26% Age % % Level of education Less than intermediate Intermediate/ above intermediate University and higher 51% 36% 13%

6 Main Results

7 Arab Spring and its consequences

8 Self identification and interest Interest in politics: 34% not interested at all, 44% somewhat interested, 15% interested and 7% very interested. Over half of the respondents choose their nationality as Egyptians to identify themselves, at 57%. The second dominating affinity was by Religion with 39%.

9 Name for the political events that happened during the last 5 years Revolution Conspiracy against Arabs Arab destruction Arab uprising Arab Spring Don't know

10 Why do you think people went to the streets? % of Egyptians stated that they supported the Arab Revolution (Arab Spring) beacuse of economic problems to protest against corruption because of lack of basic services Dont know to demand more political freedom to oppose authoritarian leaders to promote foreign interest

11 Security of your household/family The majority of the respondents have a positive outlook of on their security situation in the near future five years ago present time in the future (five years) Very bad Bad Moderate Good Very good

12 To what degree are you worried about? High Worry Moderate Worry Low Worry No possibility to give children good education (76%). A terrorist attack in my country (74%). Losing my (spouse s) job or not finding a job (68%). A war involving my country (59%). A civil war in my country (56%). Being robbed on the street (54%). Being harassed or threatened on the street (52%). Having things stolen from your house (50%). Increase in sectarian or ethnic violence (48%). Being sexually molested (44% among females).

13 Perceptions Regarding Democracy

14 Features of a democratic political system The majority agree with the statement: A democratic system may have problems, yet it is better than other systems, at 93%. The most important characteristic essential to democracy was diminishing the income gap (24%), followed by the provision of basic needs for all (21%). Whereas 57%, agree (or strongly agree) with the notion Citizens must support the government s decisions even if they disagree with them. Over half of the respondent, 56%, strongly agree with the notion Political reform should be introduced little by little instead of all at once.

15 Demand for democracy (D4D) in Egypt The average score of rating democracy in Egypt was 5, whereas the average score of suitability of democracy in Egypt was 6.2. Democracy rating > Democracy suitability Democracy rating = Democracy suitability Democracy rating < Democracy suitability 18% 31% 51% Demand for less democracy Demand for more democracy

16 Freedom of the media Completely free, 32 Not free at all, 13 Not very free, 10 Somewhat free, 45

17 Economic status and satisfaction

18 How would you rate the national economy? The majority of the respondents are aware of the current turbulence in the national economy. However, 75% of the respondents have a positive outlook of on the national economy in the future five years ago present time in the future (five years) Very bad Bad Moderate Good Very good

19 How would you rate your household/family economic situation? The majority of the respondents rate their HH/family economic situation as moderate. However, 76% of the respondents have a positive outlook of on their economic situation in the near future five years ago present time in the future (five years) Very bad Bad Moderate Good Very good

20 Compare living conditions with other people in country. Much better 1.0 Better 15.1 Similar 55.2 Worse 22.2 Much worse

21 Statement comes closest to describing household income of respondents Our household income covers our expenses well and we are able to save Our household income covers our expenses without notable difficulties Our household income does not cover our expenses and we face some difficulties in meeting our needs Our household income does not cover our expenses and we face significant difficulties in meeting our needs 37

22 Satisfaction of citizens Respondent s satisfaction on life in general (86%) High Low The system of social security (86%). The healthcare system in our country (71%) The way the local authorities are solving the region s affairs (68%). The educational system in our country (66%) The way the economy is developing in our country (43%). The way democracy is developing in our country (39%). The way the government performs its duties in national office (39%).

23 Corruption and Trust

24 Perception of corruption within the state agencies and institutions. The majority (89%) view at least a medium degree of corruption within the state agencies and institutions. Where 63% view corruption within the government extensive. Furthermore, 73% found getting a job by wasta extremely wide-spread Not at all, 4 To a large extent, 63 To a small extent, 8 To a medium extent, 26

25 To what extent is the Government working to crackdown on corruption and root out bribes? To a large extent, 34 Not at all, 18 To a small extent, 18 To a medium extent, 30

26 Are most of other people trustworthy? Most people are not trustworthy, 71 Most people are trustworthy, 29

27 Trust of citizens in public institutions High Trust (>60%) Moderate Trust (40% - 60%) Courts and legal system (62%) Low Trust (<40%) Civil society (38%). Media (27%). Local government (20%). Political parties (12%). The parliament of 2012 (8%). Police (60%). Government (Council of Ministers) (57%). Religious leaders (49%).

28 Religion, political rights and gender

29 Majority Agree Acquiescence with controversial religious concepts Religious clerics should not influence how people vote in elections (92%) Religious practice should be separated from socioeconomic life (82%) Banks in Muslim countries must be forbidden from charging interest on loans (69%) If a Muslim converts to another religion, s/he must be punished by execution (67%) Acceptable in Islam for male & female university students to attend classes together (65%)

30 Majority Disagree Acquiescence with controversial religious concepts Democracy is a Western form of government that is not compatible with Islam (93%). In a Muslim country the political rights of non- Muslims should be less to those of Muslims (88%). Prefer a religious party over a non-religious based political party (81%). Religious clerics should have influence over the decisions of government (78%). In Islam a woman should dress modestly, but Islam does not require that she wear a hijab (63%).

31 Majority Agree Acquiescence with controversial religious concepts concerning women s rights Women can refuse to marry someone chosen by her parents without their consent (90%) Men make better political leaders than women do (88%) Men should have priority getting a job when jobs are limited (84%) The first wife s consent is a prerequisite to allow the man to marry another woman (72%) Men and women should have equal rights when making the decision to divorce (62%) A married woman can work outside the home if she wishes (55%) Women can assume judicial office (55%)

32 Majority Disagree Acquiescence with controversial religious concepts concerning women s rights Women should have equal inheritance rights (91%). A woman can travel abroad by herself if she wishes (82%). The law should not allow a man to marry more than one woman (80%). A university education is more important for a boy than a girl (79%) In Islam woman can stipulate to divorce her husband in the marriage contract (73%) A woman can be President or Prime Minister of a Muslim country (53%)

33 Thank you

34 Acquiescence with current political freedom compared to 3 years prior to the Arab Spring High Improvement (>60%) Low Improvement (<40%) Moderate Improvement (40% - 60%) People can live without fear of unlawful arrest (55%). Everybody is treated equally and fairly by the government (49%). Everybody is free to decide whether or not to practice a religion (48%). Everybody is free to take part in demonstrations (75%). Each person can decide whether or not take an interest in politics (72%). Everybody is free to say what he or she thinks (69%). Everybody is free to have access to information (68%). People can join any organization they want (65%). Ordinary people can influence what government does (61%).