War Economy of Syrian Crisis

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1 War Economy of Syrian Crisis Syrian Center for Policy Research WB/IMF Spring Meeting April 21, 2017

2 Syria War Actors Subjugating powers ( political tyranny, fanaticism, fundamentalism, conflict elite) vs civil powers External Foreign governments West: War on terror, Sanctions, humanitarian support, military support East: Rising south, military support, and humanitarian support Regional: military including personnel, identity politics, humanitarian and social support Transnational conflict elite UN Global civil society Internal Regime Opposition ISIS YPG Conflict elites Civil society People

3 Global crisis Size of the Syrian economy and its resources are not enough incentives for the battle between global and regional actors at this magnitude The size of loss is far beyond the Syrian economy capacity Direct involvement of various internal and external subjugating powers Shrinking role of global civil society Institutionalising of war economy Investment in identity politics Fragmentation of geography, economy High exposure to the external influence: Humanitarian aid, diaspora, governments

4 Billions SYP Economic Impact Unbearable Economic losses GDP crisis and accumulated GDP loss in constant 2000 prices in billion SYP ( ) By 2015, the crisis total GDP loss reached USD billion: three times Syria s GDP in 2010 seven times of the projected GDP in GDP (crisis scenario) Accumulated GDP loss scpr-syria.org 4

5 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Internal trade Transport & commmunication Finance & real estate Government Services Social Services Economic Impact Unbearable Economic losses Real GDP accumulated loss by sector till the end of 2015 and real sector GDP in 2010 (in billion SYP) GDP Accumulated loss GDP loss (till2015)/ GDP 2010: o Utilities sector 3.65 times o Manufacturing 3.51 times o Finance 3.40 times o mining 3.39 times GDP growth 2015: + positive growth of agriculture, internal trade, finance, and NGOs -- recession for the rest scpr-syria.org 5

6 Economic Impact Unbearable Economic losses Acumulated Economic Losses and GDP 2010 in constant SYP Loss/GDP 4,7 Loss/GDP 12,7 26% GDP2015 By 2015, the crisis total GDP loss reached 254,7 USD billion: 4,7 times Syria s GDP in ,7 times of the projected GDP in 2015 Military expenditure 26% of GDP GDP loss Capital stock damaged Increase in military expenditure Oil Loss Total economic losses GDP 2010 GDP 2015 Military exp 2015 scpr-syria.org

7 % of GDP Economic Impact Huge deficit and military expenditure The budget deficit decreased from 41.2 % in 2014 to 28.1 % in This reflects the government strategy to increase public revenue based on subsidies rationalization policy that reduced dramatically the subsidies. However, this strategy has adversely impacted the economy and contributed to deeper recession as, it increased the cost of domestic production and the inflation pressures, and thus, devaluated the currency Fiscal policy and reduction of subsidies * Revenue Expenditure Budget Balance Deficit with Off Budget Subsidies Plus military scpr-syria.org 7

8 Means of War Economy Means of War Economy - Destruction - Weapons - Pillage of wealth and resources - Using fear and subordination of people - Reallocation of resources towards conflict related activities - Discrimination in services and basic goods - Impoverishment Policies - Economic elite privileges - Inequality of subsidies and aids distribution - Transnational conflict related networks Means of identity politics - Invest in rejection of the other - Triggering hater through killing - Media - Education - Discrimination policies - Destroying the social capital networks and trust

9 Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q Means of War Economy - Destruction and dispersion Estimated level of Capital Stock, from 2010 to 2015-Q4 at constant prices (2010=1) The Syrian population pyramid by age and gender (continuous and crisis scenarios 2016) to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 0 to 4 F_16_crisis_withinSYR F_16 M_16_crisis_withinSYR M_16 Source: Population survey 2014 and SCPR s calculations

10 Means of War Economy Reallocation of resources to conflict Consumption GDP by its components in constant prices 2000, (SYP Billion) Sectors (SYP Billion) Public Semi public Private Consumption GDP 2010 and accumulated loss till 2015 in constant prices of 2000, SYP billions Private Consumption: Recession by 2.6% in 2015 Increase of poverty Public consumption: - A substantial fall in by 33.1%, A decline to 31.6 % of GDP in It includes projected military expenditure semi-public consumption: Increasing share from 2.1 % in 2012 to 13.2 % in 2015 A shift in public economic policies Sectors (SYP Billion) Q Public Semi public Private scpr-syria.org 10

11 Means of War Economy Impoverishment Policies Overall poverty incidence in Syria by governorate (2014, 2015, a map for each year) Overall Poverty Syria 2014 Overall Poverty Syria SCPR projections SCPR projections scpr-syria.org 11

12 Means of War Economy Discrimination in services provision HeRAMS Composite Index for health centers in Syria 2014 HeRAMS Composite Index for public hospitals in Syria 2014

13 Means of War Economy Workers for violence Number of employed and unemployed (in thousand) Involved in illegal activities Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 military personnel (formal and informal) Employed Unemployed 13

14 Questions What is the cost of the Syrian crisis on the global economy? including: 1- the military and intelligence costs by the main global actors who directly involved in the battle 2- The indirect cost related to the contested relation triggered by Syrian crisis: Russia vs Turkey Saudi vs Iran Eu, US vs Russia 3- The cost of refugees crisis 4- The cost of resurgence of political tyranny 5- The cost of resurgence of terrorism Can we face the war economy in Syria on the national level?

15 Dismantiling War Economy Institutional dimension to create just and trustful governance - Ceasing the killing - Decomposing the institutional foundations and powers associated with the violence and oppression. - Activating the role of de facto nonviolent institutions towards resolving the crisis - Expanding the participation regardless political, social, cultural, and economic backgrounds. - Raising the level of accountability and integrity. - Developing national political tools to resolve the crisis through developing a shared vision at national level. - Constructing efficient institutions through strengthening the values of work, participation and accountability. - Achieving the political and developmental independency. The war main message that oppression can repeatedly destroy any developmental achievements

16 Dismantiling War Economy Economic dimension to create negative incentives to the war economy - Decomposing the foundations of violence and rent-oriented economy. - Supporting private sector development and increase the constraints on conflict elite - Institutionalizing and activating of a civil society economy. - Development role of the state is crucial to overcome the war economy - Constructing a flexible, comprehensive, and participatory plan. - Applying effective and accountable policies to alleviate poverty and inequality. - Creating job opportunities through public and civil work programs. - Supporting local production process in all sectors. - Achieving an independent, efficient, and just economic policy. - Increasing productivity by enhancing the role of knowledge and technology. Conflict elite cannot be part of build sustainable development

17 Dismantiling War Economy Social dimension to decompose the identity politics and polarisation - Restoring social fabric and trust, and dismantling the tools of fragmentation and hatred. - Respecting the right to life. - Activating the role of NGOs and civil society organizations. - Building a new social contract based on the culture of rights, equal citizenship, justice, and collective national identity through open public dialogue. - Empowered human capital, protecting fair opportunities, and safeguarding the environment of freedom of speech and intellectual production. - Investing in health and wellbeing for all, on individuals and society levels. - Preserving natural resources and reducing pollution. Reinvest in society and solidarity, and countering identity politics for peace and prosperity

18 Thank You

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