Applica'on of UQ Principles to Calibra'on, Sensi'vity, and Experimental Design

Transcription

1 Applica'on of UQ Principles to Calibra'on, Sensi'vity, and Experimental Design Omar Knio Center for Material Genomics Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science Duke University SRI Center for Uncertainty Quan'fica'on in Computa'onal Science and Engineering Applied Mathema'cs and Computa'onal Science King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

2 Acknowledgment H.N. Najm, B.J. Debusschere, R.D. Berry, K. Sargsyan, C. SaQa, K. Chowdhary, F. Rizzi, M. Khalil Sandia Na'onal Laboratories, CA R.G. Ghanem U. South. California, Los Angeles, CA O.P. Le Maître CNRS, Paris, France Y.M. Marzouk Mass. Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA Work Supported by: Ø DOE Office of Advanced Scien'fic Compu'ng Research (ASCR), Scien'fic Discovery through Advanced Compu'ng (SciDAC) Ø Office of Naval Research Ø Defense Threat Reduc'on Agency Ø King Abdullah University of Science and Technology

3 Outline Ø Introduc'on Ø UQ Challenges in Materials Modeling Ø Forward UQ / Surrogates Ø Sensi'vity Analysis Ø Calibra'on? Ø Examples? Ø Op'mal Experimental Design

4 Forward Problem x y = f(x) y

5 Inverse and Forward Problems /)$%&0+ 2'3'#.&.30+!"#$%&'(")'*+,"-.*+ y = f(x) 1%&$%& (")0+ x+ y+,.'0%3.#.)&+,"-.*+ z = g(x) + 6'&'+

6 Inverse and Forward Problems /)$%&0+!"#$%&'(")'*+,"-.*+ 1%&$%& (")0+ x+ 2'3'#.&.30+ y = f(x) y+,.'0%3.#.)&+,"-.*+ z = g(x) + 6'&'+ z d+ Data uncertain'es lead to predic'on uncertain'es

7 Inverse and Forward Problems y d+ y ={f 1 (x), f 2 (x)7+87+f M (x)}+ /)$%&0+!"#$%&'(")'*+,"-.*+ 1%&$%& (")0+ x+ 2'3'#.&.30+ y = f(x) y+,.'0%3.#.)&+,"-.*+ z = g(x) + 6'&'+ z d+ Data and model uncertain'es Inverse & Forward UQ Model validation & comparison, Hypothesis testing

8 Uncertainty Quan'fica'on UQ is the end- to- end es'ma'on and analysis of uncertainty in Ø models and their parameters assimila'on of experimental/observa'onal data model fibng and parameter es'ma'on Ø model predic'ons forward propaga'on of parametric uncertainty to model outputs Analysis, comparison and selec'on among alternate plausible models

9 Case for UQ Ø Assessment of confidence in computa'onal predic'ons Ø Valida'on and comparison of scien'fic/engineering models Ø Design op'miza'on, decision support Ø Use of computa'onal predic'ons for decision- support Ø Assimila'on of observa'onal data and model construc'on Ø Mul'scale and mul'physics model coupling

10 Valida'on Challenge Valida'on of a computa'onal model Ø Establish agreement between predic'on of quan''es of interest under given opera'ng condi'ons and empirical observa'ons Ø Establishing model validity requires error bars on computa'onal predic'ons Disagreement without error bars cannot be used to conclude that a par'cular model is not valid Disagreement within the range of uncertainty of the results can be due to parametric uncertainty

11 Sources of Uncertainty in Computa'onal Models Ø model structure par'cipa'ng physical processes governing equa'ons cons'tu've rela'ons Ø model parameters transport and thermodynamic proper'es cons'tu've rela'ons, equa'ons of state source term rate parameters Ø ini'al and boundary condi'ons Ø geometry Ø numerical errors Ø bugs Ø faults, data loss, silent errors

12 Forward propaga'on of parametric uncertainty Ø Forward model: Ø Local sensi'vity analysis and error propaga'on is ok for: small uncertainty low degree of non- linearity in Ø Non- probabilis'c methods Fuzzy logic Evidence theory y = f(x) Dempster- Shafer theory Interval math Ø Probabilis'c methods this is our focus Global sensi'vity analysis Probabilis'c UQ methods f(x)

13 Probabilis'c forward UQ Represent uncertain quan''es using probability theory Ø Random sampling, (Monte Carlo) MC, QMC, etc Generate random samples {x i } N i=1from the PDF of x, p(x) Bin the corresponding {y i } to construct p(y) f(x) Not feasible for computa'onally expensive slow convergence of MC/QMC methods very large N required for reliable es'mates Ø Build a cheap surrogate for f(x), then use MC Colloca'on interpolants Regression fibng Ø Galerkin methods Polynomial Chaos (PC) Intrusive and non- intrusive PC methods

14 Inverse UQ Es'ma'on of model/parametric uncertainty Ø Expert opinion, data collec'on Ø Regression analysis, fibng, parameter es'ma'on Ø Bayesian inference of uncertain models/parameters Sta's'cal inverse problem Bayesian framework for probability theory Bayes rule

15 Types of Uncertainty Ø Reducible uncertainty Variable has one par'cular value, but it is not known Reducible: by taking more measurements, we can get to know the value of the variable beger Examples: The mass of the planet Neptune Wind speed a par'cular loca'on and 'me Ø Irreducible uncertainty Aleatory uncertainty Intrinsic or inherent uncertainty: variable is random; different value each 'me it is observed Irreducible: taking more measurements will not reduce uncertainty in the value of the variable Examples: Variability in manufactured part dimensions Wind speed at a par'cular loca'on

16 Bayesian viewpoint Ø Concep'on of probability as a degree of belief or certainty Uncertain quan'ty Random Variable/Process Encompasses both reducible (epistemic) and irreducible (aleatory) uncertainty Ø Dis'nct from the frequen(st viewpoint Only aleatoric quan''es represented with probability theory Epistemic variables handled using non- probabilis'c methods Ø We will follow the Bayesian view: Probability represents degree of belief Any uncertain quan'ty can be represented using probability

17 Sta's'cal inverse problem Ø UQ in predic'ons requires knowledge of uncertainty in: the model model parameters, inputs These are available from prior knowledge and/or data Ø Inverse problem: g() y : model : predic'on observable, data : model parameters g( )=y

18 Challenges with inverse problem Ø Inverse problem solu'on is difficult g 1 oqen non- local, non- causal. Ø Inverse problems are typically ill- posed: No solu'on may match the data (existence) Many solu'ons may match the data (uniqueness) Ill- condi'oning or lack of stability Small changes in y can lead to large changes in Sensi'vity to noise

19 Noise and ill condi'oning Acceleration (m/s) True Input Forward Model + 5% noise Time (s) Inverse Problem Solution Time (s) Aster 2004 Acceleration (m/s) Time (s)

20 Determinis'c methods Ø Regulariza'on and op'miza'on (e.g. least- squares) impose smoothness and posi'vity Ø Issues: Choice of regulariza'on parameters regulariza'on may lead to bias, inconsistency Choice of op'mal number of fit parameters No general means for handling nuisance parameter Es'ma'on of Uncertainty in inferred parameter values relies on assumed linearity of the model in the parameters

21 Bayes formula for parameter inference Data Model (fit model + noise): Bayes Formula: p( y) = posterior likelihood prior p(y )p( ) p(y) evidence y = f( )+ Prior: knowledge of prior to data Likelihood: forward model and measurement noise Posterior: combines informa'on from prior and data Evidence: normalizing constant for present context

22 Advantages of Bayesian methods Ø Formal means of logical inference and machine learning Ø Means of incorpora'on of prior knowledge/ measurements and heterogeneous data Ø Full probabilis'c descrip'on of parameters Ø General means of handling nuisance parameters through marginaliza'on Ø Means of iden'fica'on of op(mal model complexity Only as much complexity as is required by the physics, and no more Avoid fibng to noise

23 Prior Ø Prior p( ) comes from Physical constraints Prior data Prior knowledge Ø The prior can be uninforma)ve Ø It can be chosen to impose regulariza)on Ø Unknown aspects of the prior can be added to the rest of the parameters as hyperparameters

24 Prior modeling Ø Informa've prior Ø (Mostly) Uninforma've prior Improper prior Objec've prior Maxent prior Reference prior Jeffreys prior Ø The choice of prior can be crucial when there is ligle informa'on in the data rela've to the number of degrees of freedom in the inference problem Ø When there is sufficient informa'on in the data, the data can overrule the prior

25 Likelihood modeling I Ø Where does probability enter the mapping in p(y )? Ø Through a presumed error model Ø Example: Model: y y m = g( ) Data: Error between data and model predic'on: y = g( )+ Ø Model this error as a random variable Ø Example Error is due to instrument measurement noise Instrument has Gaussian errors, with no bias = N(0, 2 )! y

26 Likelihood modeling II Ø For any given, this implies y, N(g( ), or p(y, )= 1 (y g( )) 2 p exp Ø Given N measurements, (y 1,y 2,...,y N ), and presuming independent iden'cally distributed (iid) noise y i = g( )+ i i N(0, L( )=p(y 1,y 2,...,y N, NY )= p(y i, ) i=1 2 ) 2 )

27 Likelihood modeling III Ø It is useful to use the log- Likelihood ln L( )= 1 2 N ln 2 N 2 ln NX i=1 apple yi g( ) 2 Ø Frequently, signal noise amplitude is not constant e.g. varies with signal amplitude then ln L( )= 1 2 NX i=1 ln 2 i N 2 ln NX apple yi g( ) 2 i=1

28 Likelihood modeling IV Ø This is frequently the core modeling challenge Error model: a sta's'cal model for the discrepancy between the forward model and the data composi'on of the error model with the forward model Ø Error model composed of discrepancy between data and the truth (data error) model predic'on and the truth (model error) Ø Mean bias and correlated/uncorrelated noise structure Ø Hierarchical Bayes modeling, and dependence trees p(, D) =p(,d)p( D) Ø Choice of observable constraint on Quan'ty of Interest?

29 Experimental data Ø Empirical data error model structure can be informed based on knowledge of the experimental apparatus Ø Both bias and noise models are typically available from instrument calibra'on Ø Noise PDF structure A coun'ng instrument would exhibit Poisson noise A measurement combining many noise sources would exhibit Gaussian noise Ø Noise correla'on structure Point measurement Field measurement

30 Posterior I p( y) / p(y )p( ) Con'nuing the above iid Gaussian likelihood example, consider also an iid Gaussian prior on λ with N(m, s 2 ) p( )= 1 p 2 s exp ( m) 2 2s 2

31 Posterior II Then the posterior is p( y) / exp( ky g( )k)exp( k mk) and the log posterior is ln p( y) = ky g( )k k mk + C Thus, the maximum a- posteriori (MAP) es'mate of λ is equivalent to the solu'on of the regularized least- squares problem argmin (ky g( )k + k mk) The prior plays the role of a regularizer

32 Exploring the posterior Ø Direct calcula'on generally not feasible, especially in high number of dimensions Ø Rely instead on sta's'cal approach, based on genera'ng a large number of samples: Efficiency is a problem, especially when model evalua'ons are expensive Address later through use of cheap surrogates Ø Overview of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Illustra'on based on simple line fibng example

33 Remarks Ø Always analyze: behavior of chains decay of autocorrela'on nuisance parameters Ø If you happen to have a (good) surrogate: can accelerate MCMC can use alterna've adjoint- like formalism (to es'mate MLE, spread, hyperparameters)

34 Adjoint based formalism Ø Going back to " Bayes rule NY p(, 2 1 (Mi T T ) / p i ) 2 # exp p(, 2 v 2 i i=1 Ø Taking logarithm NX apple L(, 2 (Mi T i ) 2 )= i=1 2v 2 i 2v 2 i ln(2 v2 i ) DX ln(p( d)) 2 ln(p( )) ln(p(v max )) ln(p(m)) d=1 Ø Both Adjoint and Hessian can be readily evaluated 2 )

35 Adjoint based formalism II Ø Parameters and hyper parameters can be found by minimizing cost func'onal: J (, 2 )= 1 2 (M T )T R 1 (M T )+ 1 2 ln R +ln S where R is a is a diagonal observa'on error covariance matrix and S is a diagonal matrix with entries given by the variances

36 Adjoint based formalism III Ø Deriva'ves of the cost func'on take the form: J (, 2 ) = A T R 1 (M T ) 2J (, 2 )=@ 2 J = 2 ) = 1 (M T (M T ) {Tr(R 1 d )}D d= J 7 2 2, 2, 2J Ø Solu'on can be readily found using line search algorithm Ø Assuming locally symmetric (Gaussian- like) distribu'on, Hessian at minimum provides es'mate of the spread of op'mal parameters

37 UQ Challenges in Materials Modeling Ø Mul'scale Ø Model error, mesh error Ø Simula'on cost Ø Predic'ons oqen subject to noise Ø Experimental data limita'ons, informa'on loss, mul'ple data sources Ø Coupled models