Geopolitical Futures in the Press 2017 November

Transcription

1 Geopolitical Futures in the Press 2017 November Previous Geopolitical Futures Press Request an interview Nov. 30, 2017 Real Clear World - Iran Reshapes the Middle East Iran has always seen itself as being in competition with the Arab states for domination of the Persian Gulf. - George Friedman Nov. 30, 2017 The Epoch Times - The Cracks in China s Economy The challenge however, is that limiting the funds available to the real estate industry can also lead to a crisis. China s difficult task, then, is to decrease the amount of off-balance-sheet debt while preventing a downturn in real estate that could threaten the economy, the Geopolitical Futures report states. Nov. 29, 2017 Business Insider - Here's how Nazi Germany lost on the Eastern Front to the Soviet Union in World War II The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of World War II. - George Friedman Nov. 29, 2017 Huffington Post - Iran Reshapes the Middle East Iran has always seen itself as being in competition with the Arab states for domination of the Persian Gulf. - George Friedman Nov. 29, 2017 Real Clear World - Why the Next U.S. Recession Could Be Worse Than the Last In January, we forecast that the signs of just such a recession would emerge by the end of the 1 / 9

2 year. And emerge they have. The yield curve between short-term and long-term US Treasuries is the flattest it has been at any point in the past 10 years. - Jacob L. Shapiro Nov. 29, 2017 CITY A.M. - A US recession is imminent, and Germany may suffer the most "'We have to wait for Germany to make its move,' George Friedman declared at the 2017 CFA Institute European Investment Conference." Nov. 28, 2017 Real Clear World - In Israel, Danger Is on the Horizon The fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq put a number of issues on hold in the Middle East. But the Islamic State is now all but defeated, and with the loss of a common enemy has come the loss of a common purpose for the anti-is coalition. - Jacob L. Shapiro Nov. 28, 2017 interest.co.nz - George Friedman & Xander Snyder probe what's behind the recent rise in oil prices For weeks, developments in Saudi Arabia have been cited in commentary on oil markets. It all comes down to the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran - a rivalry that plays out throughout the region, in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and elsewhere. - George Friedman & Xander Snyder Nov. 27, 2017 Real Clear World - China's Reform Troubles Start at the Local Level Two cities in China's Inner Mongolia region recently canceled planned mass-transit rail lines, and several other cities are struggling to get approval for projects of their own. These cancellations and delays mark the latest step in Beijing's efforts to rein in local government debt. - Matthew Massee Nov. 25, 2017 The Epoch Times - Who s Responsible for the Booming Economy? [The president], after all, will only be the president and his unilateral powers will be limited. For most of the things he wants to do, he needs Congress to go along, writes George Friedman of research firm Geopolitical Futures. Nov. 23, 2017 CFA Institute Enterprising Investor - George Friedman: A US Recession Is Imminent, So Watch Germany 2 / 9

3 "In his presentation to financial professionals in Berlin, [George Friedman] explained that 'there is one last piece' of the global financial crisis that must play out 'before we can move on.'" Nov. 22, 2017 ValueWalk - A Nationalist Movement Is Brewing In India-And Indians Seem To Support It Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi s revolutionary vision for his country s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision. Nov. 22, 2017 The Market Oracle - India's Brewing Nationalist Movement Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi s revolutionary vision for his country s future bears little resemblance to its present. Yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision. Nov. 21, 2017 Real Clear World - War, Nuclear War and the Law The U.S. Senate held hearings last week on the president's authority to use nuclear weapons. The trigger for the hearings was the North Korea situation, and the fear among some that President Donald Trump might launch a reckless nuclear attack against the North Koreans. - George Friedman Nov. 18, 2017 Real Clear World - A Vision for India s Future According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in. - Jacob L. Shapiro Nov. 18, 2017 interest.co.nz - George Friedman takes a look at Chinese authorities efforts to keep the country's burgeoning financial sector in check and highlights the extent of the challenges they face Top government officials in China understand, and aren t afraid to talk about, the problems in the financial system. But there are no simple solutions. Creating new committees and regulations is easy; pre-empting problems and enforcing changes are not. - George Friedman and Matthew Massee 3 / 9

4 Nov. 17, 2017 Super Express - George Friedman dla Super Expressu: Rządy PiS to nadal demokracja liberalna What Trump says is a catastrophe. What he does is insignificant, says American political scientist George Friedman in a conversation with Super Express Nov. 15, 2017 Газета ЛИТЕР - «Астана клуб» эффект есть The third meeting of the Astana Club has finished its work in the Nazarbayev Center. The largest figures of the global expert community included George Friedman. Nov. 14, 2017 Real Clear World - In the Ukraine Peace Process, Kyiv Makes Itself Heard President Donald Trump's recent meeting with President Vladimir Putin has overshadowed a week's worth of developments in Ukraine, a country that Russia and the U.S., ironically, have a shared interest in pacifying. - Allison Fedirka Nov. 13, 2017 The Trumpet - German Military Plans for a Possible Collapse of the West Antonia Colibasanu wrote for Geopolitical Futures: The release of details about Germany s first national defense strategy in decades is a signal to the world that it doesn t intend to sit idle. For 70 years, Germany has been content to sit in America s shadow and hasn t bothered doing this kind of planning. That time is over. Nov. 12, 2017 Bloomberg Markets - Lebanon's Hariri Says He's Free in Saudi Arabia, Back Soon Hariri is stuck in the middle, said Kamran Bokhari, senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures. He wants to counter Iran and Hezbollah but does not want to simply be a Saudi pawn on this chessboard. Nov. 12, 2017 Channel One Russia - Год за три: с чем Дональд Трамп подходит к концу первой четверти своего президентского срока? "When Trump became president, it turned out that he could not make decisions on his own. I think that Trump really did not understand this before. And it still makes him furious," says 4 / 9

5 political scientist George Friedman. Nov. 12, 2017 Вестник Кавказа - Turkey: political implications of financial problems Turkish President Erdogan intends to increase access to credit to stimulate economic activity. This is a political goal, although motivated by economic reasons. Analysts of Business Insider George Friedman and Xander Snyder in the article 'Turkey faces economic dilemma that will have global implications' came to this conclusion. Nov. 11, 2017 Polskie Radio - "He was treated like a friend." Trump in China George Friedman was a guest on Polskie Radio during the Warsaw Security Forum. Nov. 11, 2017 Real Clear World - Profiling Lebanon: The Western Front of a Proxy War If the Middle East is at least in part a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, then Lebanon may be called its western front. - Kamran Bokhari Nov. 11, 2017 Business Insider - Turkey faces an economic dilemma that will have global implications Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. - George Friedman and Xander Snyder Nov. 10, 2017 dsnews.ua - MCKINSEY & COMPANY ОТМЕТИЛА 15-ЛЕТИЕ РАБОТЫ В УКРАИНЕ More than 250 leaders of the private and social sectors of Ukraine, as well as representatives of the diplomatic corps and international financial institutions took part in the event. Invited 5 / 9

6 speaker George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and former chairman of Stratfor, called on the Ukrainian government to create solutions for the country's economic problems and seize opportunities. Nov. 10, 2017 BBC World - Video: Kamran Bokhari talking to BBC World about KSA vs Iran in Lebanon Nov. 10, 2017 Newsmax Finance - Turkey Faces Economic Dilemma That Will Have Global Implications Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. - George Friedman and Xander Snyder Nov. 10, 2017 Business Insider - 5 maps that explain China's strategy There is a gap between what is generally expected of China and what China actually does. To understand what China s actual national strategy is, it is helpful to follow the logic inherent in the following five maps. - George Friedman (originally written January 2016 Nov. 9, 2017 The Market Oracle - Turkey Faces Economic Dilemma That Will Have Global Implications Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase available credit to spur economic activity. This is a political goal, though one motivated by economic objectives. - George Friedman and Xander Snyder Nov. 8, 2017 ValueWalk - Why Spain Is More Fractured Than You Think Geography has confounded every ruler from Isabella I to Mariano Rajoy. But it s not that simple. If geography alone defined political power, Spain would never have unified as a country, let alone become one of the richest and most powerful empires in the modern world. 6 / 9

7 Nov. 8, 2017 Huffington Post - Saudi Arabia s Saturday Night Massacre Saudi Arabia's 32-year-old crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman, has extravagant plans for economic development, and last week arranged for the arrest of some of the most powerful ministers and princes in the country. - George Friedman Nov. 8, 2017 Real Clear World - India Banks on a New Stimulus Plan India's central government is taking a bigger role in managing the country's financial system through a new stimulus plan that will inject cash into banks and infrastructure. - Xander Snyder Nov. 8, 2017 Equities - Here s Why Spain Is More Diverse Than You Think Geography has confounded every ruler from Isabella I to Mariano Rajoy. But it s not that simple. If geography alone defined political power, Spain would never have unified as a country, let alone become one of the richest and most powerful empires in the modern world. Nov. 8, 2017 Interest.co.nz - George Friedman & Xander Snyder probe the broader regional importance and challenges of Turkey's capital shortfall leading it to borrow overseas Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing to increase investment by increasing available credit to spur economic activity. The problem Erdogan encountered, however, is that there was not enough domestic capital available to meet Turkey s lending needs. - George Friedman & Xander Snyder Nov. 8, 2017 The Trumpet - Are German Politics Broken? As Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman noted about a month ago, perhaps the most surprising thing about Europe s crises is that so few believe there is a serious problem. On October 9, he wrote, I see a pattern of disintegration that requires the energy generated by panic if it is to be solved. Nov. 7, 2017 CTV News Channel - Video: Saudie Arabia Accuses Iran of "Direct Military Agression" Kamran Bokhari on Saudi Arabia accusing Iran of "direct military aggression" following an intercepted missile headed for the capital of Riyadh. Nov. 6, 2017 Eurasia Review - Saudi King Orders Arrest Of 38 Officials For Corruption OpEd As Bloomberg notes, changing the head of the National Guard, an institution that s been controlled by the clan of the late King Abdullah, is not like changing the minister of oil, said Kamran Bokhari, a senior analyst with Geopolitical Futures and a senior fellow with the Center 7 / 9

8 for Global Policy. I wouldn t be surprised if this leads to greater fissures within the royal family. Nov. 6, 2017 Bloomberg Markets - Video: Geopolitical Futures Says Crown Prince Moving Too Boldly Kamran Bokhari, senior analyst at Geopolitical Futures, discusses Saudi Arabia's corruption crackdown and what it means for the kingdom. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: Middle East." Nov. 6, 2017 Real Clear World - Saudi Arabia, at War With Itself Forget Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, just a few of the countries in which Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war with Iran, its long-time enemy. The Saudi royal family now appears to be at war with itself. Regardless of who wins, the conflict could destabilize Saudi Arabia, which was already weakening anyway. - Kamran Bokhari Nov. 3, 2017 The Market Oracle -Here s Why Catalonia Has Put The EU In Danger Catalonia is vying to become Europe s newest nation-state, but this is a battle Catalonia ultimately can t win. - Jacob L. Shapiro Nov. 3, 2017 CTV News Channel - Video: ISIS Loses Another Stronghold Kamran Bokhari on ISIS losing another stronghold as the Syrian army have recaptured the city of Deir el-zour. Nov. 2, 2017 Real Clear World - Containing China on the Open Seas China s maritime presence is slowly spreading, and as it does, the outlines of a loose coalition to stop that spread are gradually taking shape. - Phillip Orchard Nov. 1, 2017 DELFI - G. Friedmanas: Lietuva užima kritinę poziciją Lithuania and U.S. share common strategic goals and interests. - George Friedman Nov. 1, 2017 Huffington Post - Kennedy s Death and the World of Conspiracy Theories Half the electorate believes that the president is linked to Russia and the other half believes that the deep state is trying to destroy him. The trail of distrust that began in 1963 and 8 / 9

9 Powered by TCPDF ( Geopolitical Futures mushroomed into a political culture of fear and loathing is at the root of the problem. - George Friedman Nov. 1, 2017 Equities - Almost All Countries In Europe Have Border Issues The European Union promised universal prosperity if everyone suspended the question of borders and ignored their identities. It was a good bargain. But times have changed, and economic problems make borders much more important. Europe, of course, has no solution to the problem. - George Friedman Nov. 1, 2017 Real Clear World - First Cut at a Theory In all types of analysis, the main problem for any analyst is distinguishing the noise from the signal as you comb through the daily release of reports, news and intelligence. This is, of course, the hardest task in analysis. - George Friedman Previous Geopolitical Futures Press Request an interview 9 / 9