ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN THE BEGINNING OF A NEW STAGE OF POLITICAL TURBULENCE LEVAN ASATIANI

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1 ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN THE BEGINNING OF A NEW STAGE OF POLITICAL TURBULENCE LEVAN ASATIANI 91 EXPERT OPINION

2 ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ÏÍÃÉ GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES EXPERT OPINION LEVAN ASATIANI ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN THE BEGINNING OF A NEW STAGE OF POLITICAL TURBULENCE

3 The publication is made possible with the support of the US Embassy in Georgia. The views expressed in the publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not in any way represent the views of the Embassy. Technical Editor: Artem Melik-Nubarov All rights reserved and belong to Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, including electronic and mechanical, without the prior written permission of the publisher. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. Copyright 2017 Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies ISSN ISBN

4 This year s presidential elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran went in a relatively peaceful manner as opposed to the 2013 presidential elections when President Rouhani had a serious opponent such as the then Mayor of Tehran, the former Minister of Internal Affairs of Iran and conservative politician, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. 1 Ebrahim Raisi from the so-called Conservatives, currently heading the Imam Reza Foundation and the former General Prosecutor of Iran, was presented by the Islamic Republic s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and was the main competitor for Hassan Rouhani during the May 2017 presidential elections. However, the support of the country s spiritual leader turned out to be insufficient to win the elections Raisi was short on both political experience as well as charisma. President Rouhani and his team (the so-called Reformists) had a great advantage during the pre-election marathon. They had the support of a significant part of the population, including those living in large cities, and younger generation, which was due to the successful negotiations with the West on nuclear issues and the historic agreement reached as a result, and to the lifting of economic sanctions in parallel with the prospect of an end to international isolation. Several circumstances characteristic to Iran s internal political discourse must also be taken into account all of the previous Iranian presidents, both religious as well as civilian figures (Mahmud Ahmadinejad was the only civilian person among the elected presidents) were elected for the maximum period determined by the Islamic Constitution of Iran two terms in a row. It should also be pointed out that Iran s presidential elections are held by the Ministry of Internal Affairs (which instituted unprecedented security measures all over the country) which increases the possibilities for the incumbent regime to use administrative resources on the ground. Taking these conditions into account we can say that the results of the 2017 presidential elections in Iran were not difficult to predict. The results were also foreseeable as compared to the 2013 elections when Rouhani got slightly more than half of the votes (50.7%), his victory in the very first round of the May 2017 elections was more confident (57%). 23 During the inter-election period, the political confrontation between the conservatives and the pragmatists acquired news dimensions. First, it must 3

5 be pointed out that the elections of both the Majlis (Iranian Parliament) and the Assembly of Experts, a very powerful structure responsible for the selection of the leader of the country, were held at the same time in February This rather tense political cycle was supposed to turn into an important event in Iran s political life. For the past several years, the traditional divide of the Iranian political spectrum into the Conservatives and the Reformists has undergone a certain type of mutation. The Conservative wing was divided into two camps the hardliners and the pragmatists (principlists). At the same time, part of the Reformists has moved ideologically towards the pragmatists. As a result, the elections of the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, held in the same election cycle in 2016, showed us that the fragile balance in the Iranian establishment has not been upset. The winners of this year s elections, Hassan Rouhani and his team, will lead the country for another four-year cycle and if the previous promises are not fulfilled, which will be very hard to do taking the results of the US presidential elections into account, the pragmatist/reformist wing will find it very hard to retain public support. The Iranians were expecting unprecedented numbers of delegations from all over the world to attend President Rouhani s inauguration. Inauguration day, on Saturday, August 5, 2017, was declared a holiday. According to the statements of Iranian officials, the level and people involved in the delegations attending President Rouhani s inauguration is a clear indicator of the international prestige of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 4 As for the presidential elections of the United States of America, some observers found it highly unlikely that the American people would support a Democratic Party s candidate for the third time in a row. Despite this, the pre-election battles turned out to be more unpredictable in the United States, as compared to Iran, and developed quite dramatically. Until the last minute, it was unclear whether or not the Republican candidate, billionaire Trump, would be able to defeat the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, whose experience of being the First Lady of the United States and participating in pre-election campaigns, as well the political capital she had accumulated during her tenure as the Secretary of State of the United States in the Obama Administration, should have been enough for her to conclude the pre-election campaign successfully. This 4

6 was the reason why Trump s victory turned out to be quite unexpected for many inside the United States as well as abroad. The dramatic effect of the election campaign was generated by the revelation that the databases of the election headquarters of the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, had been breached by Russian hackers. By revealing the unprotected nature of the Democratic Party s databases, Russia put the well-functioning of the United States election system under suspicion. Immediately after assuming office, President Trump and his foreign relations team changed the attitudes of the United States towards the Middle East almost completely, thereby changing the attitude towards the Islamic Republic of Iran as well. The most important foreign policy achievement of President Barack Obama, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, was considered to be the 2015 deal brokered with Iran on nuclear weapons issues. 5 Instead of the new administration building its Middle East policies on this deal with Iran as the United States top partner in the region, Trump chose Iran s old geopolitical rival and spawn of the extremely radical Wahhabi ideology of Islam, Saudi Arabia. The confirmation of this was that for the first time in the history of the United States, the US President went on his first official presidential visit to the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, alongside his statements made to the leaders of the Persian Gulf countries. Given the events unfolding in the Middle East, when the main political players in the region, including Shia Iran, agree on the fact that the so-called Islamic State (which until a short while ago controlled large parts of the territories of Iraq and Syria, including the cities of Mosul and Raqqa) must be destroyed, the inevitable defeat of the Islamic State poses a question: who exactly will be controlling these territories the Sunni coalition led by Saudi Arabia or Shia Iran? Aside from the fact that the United States and Russia (the latter s official appearance in the region took place during Obama s tenure) are supporting opposing sides in this conflict, the very distinct and vital interests of Turkey are also becoming noticeable in the region. The short or long-term interests of all of these players are so entangled that the region might actually face prolonged political chaos. Iran s involvement in the Syrian civil war and later in the conflict against the Islamic State, which manifested itself by the appearance of Lebanese 5

7 Hezbollah and Shia militias in order to support the Bashar Assad regime, partly coincided with Russian interests as well. Such actions taken by Tehran and especially the frequent demonstrative ballistic missile tests have been perceived by the United States as a violation of the so-called Nuclear Deal by the Islamic Republic. This created a basis for the incumbent administration to impose new sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The bill prepared by the United States Senate, imposing sanctions against Russia, Iran and North Korea, was signed by President Trump albeit with a slight lack of enthusiasm (probably because of Russia more than anything else). Already during his pre-election campaign, the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, has heard serious criticism from the spiritual leader of the country, Ayatollah Khamenei, for his excessive Westernization. During an open debate, Rouhani called the vital basis of the conservative wing, the Revolutionary Guard, an alternative armed government. It must be pointed out that the Revolutionary Guard is directly involved in the fights taking place in the region and only takes orders from spiritual leader Khamenei. The achievement of bringing Iran out of international isolation, which was accomplished by the group of reformists led by President Rouhani and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zarif, by reaching a nuclear deal with the West during the first Presidential tenure of Rouhani, will be facing a serious challenge. The attempts of the reformists to resolve the vital political and social problems facing the country through economic cooperation with the West will be put under serious risk by the imposition of new economic sanctions from the United States. This will probably influence both the domestic as well as the foreign policies of the country and might push Iran to seek closer cooperation with other countries subject to the US sanctions. 6

8 References 1. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was also involved in the 2017 pre-election campaign but later suspended his candidacy in favor of Raisi. 2. A second round of voting was required in 2005 when Mahmud Ahmadinejad, as the then Mayor of Tehran, scored a surprise victory over former President Rafsanjani. This was determined by the open support of the spiritual leader as well as the passiveness of young voters who were alienated from politics. In Iran, this case created a perception of the unpredictability of the second round of voting which might have caused increased activity during this year s elections. 3. In any case, Rouhani s victory in the elections was spoiled. In July, several weeks before his inauguration, the President s former Special Representative in Nuclear Programs, his brother, Hussein Fereydoun, was arrested for alleged financial violations during his work in state structures. 4. The inauguration was attended by delegations from more than 90 countries. These included: neighboring Iraq, Afghanistan, Armenia as well as the presidents of Zimbabwe, Moldova, Uganda and North Korea and complemented by the High Representative of the European Union, Federica Mogherini; Russian Vice Prime Minister, Rogozin, and government representatives of a large number of countries (mainly from the Non-Aligned Countries) and foreign ministers or their deputies. 5. From Obama s 2009 speech at Cairo University: In the middle of the Cold War, the United States played a role in the overthrow of a democratically-elected Iranian government. This history is well known. Rather than remain trapped in the past, I have made it clear to Iran s leaders and people that my country is prepared to move forward 7