STRUCTURAL INTERDEPENDENCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Transcription

1 STRUCTURAL INTERDEPENDENCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

2 Structural Interdependence and Economic Development PROCEEDINGS OF AN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INPUT-OUTPUT TECHNIQ.UES, GENEVA, SEPTEMBER 196 I EDITED BY TIBOR BARNA IN COLLABORATION WITH WILLIAM I. ABRAHAM and ZOLTAN KENESSEY Palgrave Macmillan 1963

3 Additional material to this book can be downloaded from ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Copyright Macmillan & Co Ltd 1963 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition MACMILLAN AND COMPANY LIMITED St Martin's Street London WC 2 also Bombay Calcutta Madras Melbourne THE MACMILLAN COMPANY OF CANADA LIMITED Toronto ST MARTIN'S PRESS INC New York

4 Preface by WASSILY LEONTIEF The papers brought together in this book were presented at the Third International Input-Output Conference held in September 1961 in Geneva. The meetings were sponsored jointly by the Secretariat of the United Nations and the Harvard Economic Research Project. Over two hundred economists and statisticians, coming from forty-one different countries, took part in them. The first international conference on interindustrial relations met in 1951 in Driebergen, Holland; its programme centered on the construction and empirical implementation of the basic theoretical systems [1]. Continued work on analytical, statistical and computational procedures is reflected in the proceedings [2] of the second conference which took place in in Varenna, Italy. The application of the input-output techniques to economic projection and developmental planning appeared on its programme among other 'special applications.' The tide of the present volume indicates that the proceedings in Geneva were dominated by these two subjects. For the first time experts from the Soviet Union and other socialist countries and planners from underdeveloped areas shared their ideas and practical experiences in the study of interindustrial relationships with economists working on the same problems in countries of private enterprise. Direct and indirect interdependence between the input and the output flows of all goods and services governs the intersectoral balance of every economic system. In one way or another such a balance is maintained in industrialized countries as weil as in countries still in the early stages of economic growth. The same is true of the necessary intertemporal connection between capital accumulation, i.e., investment in productive capacities of specific kind and the expansion rates of various outputs. Depending on the nature of the social and economic institutions of the particular country, such a balance is established and such an intertemporal dependence maintained either through a more or less effective operation of the impersonal forces of the market mechanism, through a more or less efficient planning action or through so me combination of both. In either case the input-output method is used as an effective projection or a planning too1. In the development of this analytical technique and of its variouapplications, economists and statisticians from private enterprise econos mies and from socialist states, from highly industrialized areas as weil as v

5 vi Preface from areas that are just entering the steep path of economic growth, can profitably work together since the scientific problems they are facing are, in this particular instance, essentially the same. The present exchange of methodological ideas should naturally lead to international cooperation of a more substantive kind. A national input-output table permits us to analyse the interindustrial relationships between the sectors of the economy of a given country in great detail, but when it comes to the description of the ftow of goods and services connecting that economy with the economies of other countries, it traces them up to the geographie border - but not beyond. Thus, the analytical schemes based on such data must of necessity be kept 'open' in respect to external trade: the foreign demand for any good or service exported from a given country is treated not as an integral element of the picture, but rather as apart of its external frame, and so is the supply of imports obtained from abroad. This procedure restricts severely the analytical power and consequently also the practieal usefulness of national input-output computations, particularly for the small and the developing economies in whose internal balance exports and imports play an important and frequently even a dominant role. Establishment of effective statistieal and analytical links between the national input-output tables of countries trading with each other would obviously increase the usefulness of the factual information contained in each one of these tables. The lively discussion of the international standardization of input-output statistics summarized in the last chapter of this volume deserves, because of that, particular attention. A proper conceptual and numerical alignment of the import and export figures entered in the tables of interindustrial ftows prepared for individual countries would represent a most significant advance in the development of input-output techniques. In the name of the Sponsoring Committee of the Geneva Conference I want to thank Professor Tibor Barna for the effective discharge of his responsibilities as Chairman of the Editorial Committee; Dr. Zoltan Kenessey and Professor William Abraham cooperated with him in the performance of that demanding task. REFERENCES [1] The Netherlands Economic Institute, ed., Input-Output Relations, Proceedings of a Conference on Inter-industrial Relations held at Driebergen, Holland. (Leiden, 1953.) [2] Barna, Tibor, ed., The Structural Interdependence 0/ the Economy, Proceedings of an International Conference on Input-Output Analysis, Varenna, 27 June-lO July (New York and Milano, 1956.)

6 Contents CHAPTER Preface, by W ASSILY LEONTIEF PAGE Introduction, by TIBOR BARNA 1 PART I. MODELS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 1 The Use of Interindustry Analysis in Development Programming, by HOLLIS B. CHENERY 2 Decomposition and Optimization of Short-run Planning in a Planned Economy, by JERZY MYCIELSKI, KRZYSZTOF REy and WITOLD TRZECIAKOWSKI 28 3 An Efficient Path for the Technological Transformation of an Economy, by PURUSHOITAM NARAYAN MATHUR 39 4 The Food and Agricultural Sectors in Advanced Economies, by KAHL A. Fox 57 5 Models of Agriculture and Industry in Less Developed Economies, by J. K. SENGUPTA 76 Comments on papers by Professor Fox and Mr. Sengupta, by RICHARD H. DAY 93 Reply by KARL A. Fox and J. K. SENGUPTA 99 PART 11. REGIONAL MODELS 6 Application of Input-Output Techniques to Regional Science, by W ALTER ISARD and EUGENE SMOLENSKY 105 Comments on paper by Professors Isard and Smolensky, by H. I. LIEBLING Multiregional Input-Output Analysis, by WASSILY LEONTIEF in collaboration with ALAN STROUT Application of Input-Output Techniques to Urban Areas, bywernerz. HIRSCH 151 PART 111. INPUT-OUTPUT TECHNIQUES AND NATIONAL PLANNING 9 The Use of Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Soviet Planning, by V. S. NEMCHINOV 171 vü I I V

7 viii Contents CHAPTER PAGE 10 Collection and Organization of Data for Interindustry Study in France, by GEORGES DELANGE The Input-Output Model in a Developing Economy: Egypt, by GAMAL E. ELEISH 199 Addendum to paper by Mr Eleish, by A. R. ABDEL MEGUID Some Applications of Input-Output Techniques to the Analysis of the Structure and Development of Israel's Economy, by MICHAEL BRUNO Construction and Use of Input-Output Tables in Latin American Countries, by MANUEL BALBOA 245 PART IV. PROBLEMS OF ESTIMATION AND STATISTICS 14 The Labour Coefficient and the Size of Establishment in Two Japanese Industries, by RYUTARO KOMIYA and TADAO UCHIDA Incremental Flow Coefficients for adynamie Input Output Model with Changing Technology, by ANNE P. CARTER Changes in Input-Output Coefficients, by PER SEVALDSON 303 Comments on paper by Mr Sevaldson, by TSUNEHIKO WATANABE Problems of Standardization of Input-Output Statistics: a Debate, by V. CAO-PINNA and B. ROELANTS DU VIVIER, W. I. ABRAHAM and M. HOFFENBERG, M. R. GOLDMAN, O. AUKRUST, Z. KENESSEY and A. NOVAK 333

8 List of Contributors The position 0/ contributors given is that at the time 0/ the con/erence ABDEL MEGUID, A. R., Director of Research, Bank of Alexandria, Cairo. ABRAHAM, WILLIAM 1., Statistical Office, United Nations. AUKRUST, ODD, Director of Research, Central Bureau of Statistics of N orway. BALBOA, MANUEL, Director, Economic Development and Research Division, Economic Commission for Latin America. BARNA, TIBOR, Assistant Director, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London. BRUNo, MICHAEL, Research Department, Bank of Israel. CAO-PINNA, VERA, Lecturer, University of Rome. CARTER, ANNE P., Senior Research Associate, Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard University, U.S.A. CHENERY, HOLLIS B., Professor ofeconomics, Stanford University, U.S.A. DAY, RICHARD H., Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. DELANGE, GEORGES, Department of Economic and Financial Research, Ministry of Finance, Paris. ELEISH, GAMAL, Head of Input-Output Unit, National Planning Commission, Cairo. Fox, KARL A., Head, Department of Economics and Sociology, Iowa State University, U.S.A. GHOSH, AMBICA, Reader in Economics, Jadavpur University, Calcutta, India. GOLDMAN, MORRIS, Office of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Commerce, HIRSCH, WERNER Z., Professor of Economics and Director of the Institute for Urban and Regional Studies, Washington University, St. Louis, U.S.A. HOFFENBERG, MARVIN, Operations Research Office, Johns Hopkins University, U.S.A. ISARD, WALTER, Professor of Regional Science, Wharton School of Finance and Commerce, U niversity of Pennsylvania, U. S.A. KENESSEY, ZOLTA.N, Chief of Section, Hungarian Central Statistical Office KOMIYA, RYUTARo, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. LEONTIEF, WASSILY, Professor of Economics and Director of Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard University, U.S.A. LIEBLING, HERMAN, Director of Economic Studies, National Science Foundation, Washington. MATHUR, PURUSHOTTAM N., Professor, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Poona, India. IX

9 x List 0/ Contributors M YCIELSKI, JERZY, Institute of Physics, Polish Academy of Sciences. NEMCHINOV, V. S., Director of the Laboratory of Economic-Mathematical Sciences, Academy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R. NOVAK, ANTE, Director, Federal Statistical Office, Belgrade. REY, KRZYSZTOF, Economic Adviser, Computing Centre, Polish Academy of Sciences. ROELANTS DU VIVIER, B., O.E.E.C., Paris. SENGUPTA, J. K., Fulbright Fellow at Iowa State University (U.S. Educational Foundation in India). SEVALDSON, PER, Central Bureau of Statistics ofnorway SMOLENSKY, EUGENE, Assistant Professor of Economics, Haverford College, U.S.A. STROUT, ALAN, Technical Associate, Harvard Economic Research Project, Harvard University, U.S.A. TRZECIAKOWSKI, WITOLD, Head of Research Project, Polish Ministry of Foreign Trade. UCHIDA, TADAO, Assistant Professor, FacuIty of General Education, U niversity of Tokyo. WATANABE, TSUNEHIKO, Research Center in Economic Growth, Stanford University, U.S.A.