Who chooses dynastic candidates?

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Godwin Bruce
6 years ago
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1 Who chooses dynastic candidates? Philippine Senatorial Elections Clarissa C. David, PhD Professor, UP College of Mass Communication

2 Starting points and questions Assume that political dynasties are unhealthy for a democracy, economic development, inclusivity Know that dynasties dominate Philippine politics, especially at the local level What about the national-level offices? The senate. What types of voters tend to select dynastic families in national-level elections? Reports consolidated findings from 3 papers Does not include 2016 election

Dynasts remain in power because people vote for them May not be true for local elections, but true for national ones Lot of important work about the worsening breadth and depth of dynastic

3 Dynasts remain in power because people vote for them May not be true for local elections, but true for national ones Lot of important work about the worsening breadth and depth of dynastic politics Mendoza et al s fat and thin dynasty classification especially powerful way of communicating the scale and scope of the problem How do they remain in power? Capital of different kinds

4 Dynastic Senatorial Line-up 16th Congress 2 sets of siblings 3 sons of former presidents Daughter of former vice president 8 children of former senators Wife of a former senator 17th Congress not as bad, has 8/24 clearly part of national dynasties

5 2016 election Dominated by incumbents And former senators

6 Candidates from national dynasties have better chances of winning Defined as being a close relative of a nationally elected official (current or former P, VP, Senator) Outcome of % votes received, and whether candidate won ( 01, 04, 07, 10) Controlling for: senator in past, married to celebrity, media celebrity, incumbent RESULT: after incumbency, dynasty is best predictor of votes gaining on average 11% more votes than another candidate, first-time candidates of political families have 8% advantage Dynastic candidates are 3.6X more likely to win an election Source: David & San Pascua. (2015). Who votes for dynastic candidates? Building Inclusive Democracies in ASEAN, (eds Mendoza et al)

7 Vast international literature on vote choice Filipino voting patterns Embarrassment of data, but limited knowledge Local studies important because of myriad contextual factors that influence choice: - Electoral laws Party system Voter options Institutional set-ups Do any of these help us understand why people vote for dynasts?

8 Local vs National Dynasties Local elections National elections Vote-buying and other forms of retail cheating or patronage-style campaigning Votes, retail cheating gets too expensive Locals know their candidates People know almost nothing about candidates for national office, outside of Pres and Vice Pres Higher stakes Lower stakes (impact on daily life is lower, impact on behavior of the Senate is lower) =what s the harm in letting Manny Pacquiao have a seat? Candidate-selection cognitive task is (A) or (B) A + B + C + D + E up to 12 <= 12 names

9 Nationally elected Voting for 12 people in one election Unique to the Philippines The odd experience of voting for Senator Low-stakes decision, consequences aren t local, and selecting one is not a deselection of another Easy to add names (Ave national 7-8 names) Parties * slates/tickets

10 Voter decision 12 Names + low information environment = High cognitive burden on voter reliance on heuristics = advantage celebrity/dynasty

11 How voters combine candidates on a ballot Method 2010 Exit Poll data from SWS (actual voted vs. vote intentions) n=52,573 Cluster analysis: how often candidates co-occur on a voter s set, network quantifies strength of co-occurrence, which candidates almost always together on a voter s list? Source: David & Legara. (2015). How voters combine candidates on the ballot: The case of the Philippine Senatorial Elections. Intl J of Public Opinion Res

13 Voters for Celeb + Dynast more likely: Rural Poor Low fill-up rate Low education Voters likely to vote for celebrities are also likely to vote for dynastic candidates for national elections (fame advantage)

14 Voting for dynastic candidates Previous paper looks at vote patterns for the cluster, putting together dynasties with celebrities. What is it for just dynastic candidates? Method 2004, 2007, 2010 pre-election surveys N range 1,177-1,916 For each voter how many dynastic candidates did they vote for? Hi/Lo categories then logistic regression to predict Source: David & San Pascual. (2016). Predicting vote choice for celebrity and political dynasty candidates in Philippine national elections. Philippine Political Science Journal.

15 Predictors of dynasty votes Paper 1* (pre-election polls) Paper 2** (exit polls) Higher education (+) Social class (ns) Visayas (slightly more) Fill-up rate (+) Higher education (+) Social class (D class more likely) NCR more likely in recent years Fill-up rate (+) Urban (recent elections) Mechanism for education association? Possibly: Privileging of educational status of candidates, the highly educated will vote for the highly educated, and those are more likely to be dynastic As a group, the highly educated elite is not a big enough bloc to change the outcome of an election (save for the borderline candidates) * PPSJ paper **Book chapter

Dynastic Senatorial Candidates Advantage Inherited fame, voter recall gives heuristic advantage (probably biggest) Positive regard for familial ties Political capital of family (getting in the

16 Dynastic Senatorial Candidates Advantage Inherited fame, voter recall gives heuristic advantage (probably biggest) Positive regard for familial ties Political capital of family (getting in the right parties, slates, machinery support) Elite support, selected by the wealthier and more educated voters (small advantage, not a lot of voters) In an important way, national dynasty=celebrity

17 Self-selection into the Senatorial election If you or your spouse are not nationally (in)famous then don t run for Senate If you want to run for Senate and are not famous join a TV show Chicken or egg? Does it matter? Major player in healthy democracy: media

18 Challenges How to fix? Anti-dynasty law Affirmative action policy solutions to support non-dynastic candidates Diversify field of candidates Shore up political and electoral knowledge and education through the formal education system and the media system (not just during election years) Is this all moot if/when federalism changes the landscape?

19 Thank you.

AP US GOVERNMENT & POLITICS UNIT 2 REVIEW

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