Policy Deliberation and Electoral Returns: Evidence from Benin and the Philippines. Léonard Wantchékon, Princeton University 5 November 2015

Transcription

1 Policy Deliberation and Electoral Returns: Evidence from Benin and the Philippines Léonard Wantchékon, Princeton University 5 November 2015

2 Two decades of sustained economic growth in Africa

3 But growth is not necessarily leading to poverty reduction

4 In some countries, this reflects high inequality: 7 of 10 most unequal countries are in SSA

5 Poverty and inequality are often accompanied by poor service delivery in education Source: World Bank Service Delivery Indicators Project

6 and poor service delivery in infrastructure provision Source: World Bank Logistics Performance Index

7 Democracy matters, and it is not a foreign concept

8 There is a relationship between independence movements, a culture of participation and deliberation, and democracy levels today

9 Democracy matters: A history of inclusive and peaceful democratic processes has implications for growth

10 Personal experience: Democracy is a political dividend from social movements in 70s and 80s

11 Though democracy has come a long way, it has still further to go

12 Even in democracies, clientelist policymaking is widespread today Clientelism shapes both the conduct of democratic elections and government policies State resources used for short-term electoral gains Voters decisions influenced by immediate material gains rather than longterm policy Platforms based on patronage outperform those based on policy Clientelism generates a relationship between candidate and voter as candidates use discretion when distributing transfers to voters who support them

13 Can deliberative electoral campaigns reduce clientelism and make voters more responsive to policy positions? We tested a voter engagement intervention: Party-endorsed town hall meetings where voters and candidates debate policies in Benin and the Philippines Deliberative campaigns may affect attendees: Voter coordination: Learn about other voters preferences and beliefs Platform transparency: Better understand a candidate s platform Platform customization: Actively influence policy by debating with the candidate Deliberative campaigns may affect those who do not attend: Information sharing: Learn about the candidate s platform from others in a social network

14 Why town hall meetings? Democratic institutions are a deep part of African culture Growth of democracy in the region is not surprising; African culture is profoundly democratic Democratic institutions like town halls have a rich history here The town hall is not a foreign concept To encourage politicians to change behavior, we tried to perfect an intervention that is already a part of local tradition Working directly with politicians can address one type of external validity : Will politicians continue to engage with voters in a deliberative, interactive, and policy-oriented manner?

15 Benin, 2011 Presidential Election Poor economic performance may be linked to electoral corruption and patronage politics Top three candidates, including incumbent, collaborated with study Treatment candidates offered universalistic policies: education, health, employment, corruption Comparison candidates offered mix of clientelistic and universalistic policies Tested impact of town hall technology and campaign platforms based on universalistic policies

16 Philippines, 2013 Party-List Legislative Election 50% of elected politicians are dynastic Two party-lists collaborated with study Both parties offer programmatic platforms targeted at minority groups, do not have means to engage in clientelism Isolated impact of town hall meeting technology

17 Treatment villages: Town hall meeting Meetings followed standard format: Introduction to candidate s platform Deliberation about platform, participants invited to propose amendments Summary of meeting and commitment to transmit feedback to party leadership

18

19

20

21

22 Comparison villages: Business-as-usual campaigns Festive political rallies, sometimes with gift distribution Speech by candidate or representative about policy agenda One-way communication Mobile propaganda teams Posters in public spaces

23 Effect of town hall meetings on voter behavior, vote share, clientelism Town hall meetings increased turnout by 3.3% in Benin and had no impact on turnout in Philippines Increased electoral support for some candidates or parties that engaged in deliberation Benin: 8.6% increase in vote share for opposition; no increase in incumbent vote share Philippines: Vote share for treatment parties increased 50% Deliberative campaign reduced index of clientelism 0.23 standard deviations in Benin

24 Effect of town hall meetings on turnout in Benin

25 Effect of town hall meetings on vote share in Benin

26 Effect of town hall meetings on different types of voters Homogeneous effects of town hall meetings on citizens in Benin Heterogeneous effects of town hall meetings by education, income, and gender in Philippines, consistent with party platforms

27 Why might town hall meetings have an impact on voter turnout and vote share? Several possible mechanisms: They generate transparent policy platforms They facilitate coordination among voters Voters who attend meetings share information with others

28 Key mechanisms for impact in Benin: Audience heard transparent policy platforms and shared information with others who did not attend

29 Conclusions, open questions, ongoing research Deliberative campaigns can limit the electoral appeal of clientelism Voters seem to reward this campaign strategy at the polls If we want to change politicians behavior, choose interventions that are a part of local tradition, not adopted from outside Open questions: Do informational effects arise vertically, by debating platform positions with candidates, or horizontally, by engaging with other voters? Through which channels do voters share information with others? How do attendees social networks affect non-attendees in their networks? What is the impact on post-election policy outcomes? Ongoing research in Benin: Piloting policy deliberation to improve bureaucratic cohesion Impact of town hall meetings in primary elections on candidate quality