Foster McCollum White & Associates

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1 Hoekstra has establishment edge but not insurmountable margin in the final days before the Republican primary for United States Senator, per (F M W) B poll. July 31, 2012 Contact: Eric Foster Cell efoster@fostermccollumwhite.com Contact: Tarek Baydoun Cell baydounconsulting@gmail.com Contact: Jacqueline McCollum Cell jmccollum@fostermccollumwhite.com Forme r U.S. Congressman Pete Hoe kstra has a healthy advantage going into the August 7 th Republican Prima ry for U.S. Senate. In spite of the advantage, Hoe kstra has not yet sealed the deal and has allowe d enough room for late cha rging C la rk Durant to pull togethe r a prima ry voting coalition of Tea Pa rty, I ndependents, African A me ricans and othe rs simila r to Gove rnor Rick Snyde r in In the national battle between the Republican Party and Democratic Party for control of Congress, the Michigan Senate Seat held by two term Senator Debbie Stabenow is considered attainable to most observers. Early on, it looked as if Pete Hoekstra would have an easy road to the Republican nomination. However missteps in campaign messaging and the surprising challenge of businessman and Cornerstone In spite of significant name identification and institutional organization advantage, Hoekstra does not have the insurmountable margin one would expect. With the Republican primary less than one week away Pete Hoekstra has a 39.76% to 23.59% lead over Clark Durant, with 15.31% selecting another candidate and 24.04% being undecided. With candidate and leading Tea Party advocate Gary Glenn throwing his support to Durant and late spending by a Pro Durant Super PAC, this race should go down to the wire. Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 general election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences for: The baseline for likely United States Senate general election match ups. The baseline for the Republican senate nomination primary contest (filter question subset of total aggregate universe). 1

2 Representatives. This ten question automated poll survey was conducted on July 28, 2012 and was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit. The margin of error for the respondents who filtered to the Republican Nominating Ballot Test section is 3.83% with a confidence level of 95%. To view the reports of our polling studies on the United States Senate and other political topics for Fox 2 News online, please click the following link - Key F indings Analysis United States Senate Republican Primary E lection Contest We asked our aggregate universe a filter question to determine their intention to participate in the August Republican Primary for United States Senate. Six hundred and fifty-six (656) respondents identified that they will either vote in the primary or have already voted by absentee ballot. Our polling study reflects that the August Primary Election contest for the Republican nomination for United States Senate will be very competitive. Former Congressman Pete Hoekstra has a sizable lead against Cornerstone Schools founder Clark Durant and other candidates, yet nearly a quarter of the Republican primary electorate is undecided. The interesting fact we identified in our findings is that there is significant interest among Democratic and independent self identified voters in participating in the Republican Senate primary. This is comparable to the interest that Democrats and independents had in participating in the 2010 Republican Gubernatorial Primary, which propelled businessman Rick Snyder to victory over traditional Republican establishment candidates. The data suggests that these groups are interested primarily because of Clark Durant versus the establishment candidate Hoekstra. We also found that 12.84% of the respondents who have planned to participate in the Republican Senate Primary are non white, including 7.19% African American respondents. Additionally, we found that Clark Durant is leading Hoekstra among Tea Party supporters. The Tea Party has waged a string of successful intra- across the country. The data suggests that the Michigan primary may shape up as the Nebraska and Texas senate primaries where Tea Party supported candidates upset establishment Republican leaders. 2

3 We ballot-tested the Republican primary for the United States Senate contest. We former Congressman Pete Hoekstra has a point lead versus Clark Durant with 24.04% of the voters being undecided and 15.31% selecting another candidate on the ballot. The aggregate results for the ballot test matchup are listed below: State-wide Republican Prima ry Respondents Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gende r and ethnicity of electorate) 656 Respondents M O E +/- 3.83% Question #4: The 2012 Republican Primary for United States Senate will be held on August 7, If you plan on voting or have already voted in the Republican Primary, who is your choice in this election? (Only for respondents to question 3, selection 1 & 2) (Former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra): 39.76% (Republican Cornerstone Schools Founder Clark Durant): 23.59% (Another candidate): 15.31% (Undecided): 24.04% 3

4 Be yond the topline aggregate, we analyze d the following cross tabular groups to bette r de fine the dynamics of the Michigan Unite d States Se nate Republican Primary e lection most like ly match ups. A. Congressman Pete Hoe kstra positive c ross tabula r groupings for the prima ry election Contest: Republican-Prima ry Favorable C ross Tabula r groups Our findings reflect creditable areas of support for Congressman Hoekstra in the cross tabular groups in the Republican Primary matchup against Clark Durant. Cross Tab Grouping Pete Hoe kstra Cla rk Durant Anothe r Candidate/Undecided Se lf ide ntifie d Re publican 50.46% 22.94% 26.61% Se lf ide ntifie d M ale 45.69% 25.47% 28.84% Se lf ide ntifie d Je wish 45.45% 9.09% 45.45% Southweste rn M ichigan 52.50% 24.38% 23.13% Re publican M ajor 7 Counties 50.00% 26.03% 23.97% Cluste r Next 7 Counties Cluste r 50.00% 16.67% 33.33% 1 st Congressional 45.59% 22.06% 32.35% 2 nd Congressional 54.67% 26.67% 18.67% 3 rd Congressional 50.00% 25.00% 25.00% 6 th Congressional 50.00% 17.65% 32.35% western and central regions of Michigan and traditional Republican voters and Republican counties. The data suggests that Hoekstra has not attained a comparably strong base of support on the eastern side of the State, female voters and with voters that will make up the broader universe in November. Hoekstra can be hurt if the eastern side of Michigan has an increased level of primary primary election victory over Hoekstra in Hoekstra could also be suffering from the backlash regarding his opening campaign ad during the Super Bowl. The Republican Primary electorate in the Thumb, Central and Southeastern Regions of Michigan tend to be more diverse and generate more interest from Independents than the Southwestern and Northern Lower Peninsula regions of Michigan. Those voters 4

5 may be turned off by the ad and the initial defense of the ad by Hoekstra, which may be helping to keep this contest very competitive. B. Cla rk Durant positive c ross tabula r groupings for the Prima ry election: Our findings reflect strong areas of support for Cornerstone School Founder Clark Durant across diverse and unique cross tabular groups in the Primary election matchup against Congressman Hoekstra. We also found a number of C ross Tab Grouping Pe te Hoekstra Clark Durant Anothe r Candidate/Undecide d Se lf ide ntifie d 23.56% 17.24% 59.20% De mocratic Se lf ide ntifie d Te a Party 37.93% 41.38% 20.69% Se lf ide ntifie d 29.61% 26.32% 44.08% Inde pende nt ages 18 to 21.05% 31.58% 47.37% 30 ye ars old Se lf ide ntifie d African 21.28% 23.40% 55.32% Ame rican Se lf ide ntifie d M ulti % 28.57% 50.00% Racial Se lf ide ntifie d No 18.42% 36.84% 44.74% Re ligious Affiliation Wayne County Region 23.19% 17.39% 59.42% O ak land County Region 27.03% 21.62% 51.35% Thumb Region of 31.94% 23.61% 44.44% M ichigan De mocratic M ajor % 22.09% 46.63% Counties Cluste r 4 th Congressional 28.36% 26.87% 22.39% 5 th Congressional 33.33% 29.17% 37.50% 10 th Congressional 29.73% 21.62% 48.65% 11 th Congressional 25.53% 17.02% 57.45% 13 th Congressional 16.67% 16.67% 66.67% 5

6 Durant has a very diverse and unique base of voter support in the primary electorate. Durant has the advantage over Hoekstra among Tea Party respondents, voters ages 18 to 30, African American, multi-racial Americans and respondents with no religious affiliation and is statistically tied among independent voters. The Tea Party is a core base among the Republican Party, Independents, and Democrats and makes up a significant portion of the winning coalition for Governor Snyder in the 2010 primary election. An interesting fact within our findings was that 7.19% of the Republican primary respondents were African American. The interest from Democrats, Independents and African Americans creates a narrative that Durant is better positioned in the November election to compete and may have success in getting significant cross over voters to the primary. The data also suggests that Tea Party respondents in Michigan are not comfortable with the establishment candidacy of Hoekstra. The findings suggest they are leaning towards serious pushback against the traditional Republican leadership. Data Summa ry We found that the Republican Primary is very competitive going into the August primary. Hoekstra has a current point lead over Durant but 39.35% of the respondents are either undecided or considering other candidates. Durant still has a chance to catch Hoekstra with a unique coalition of Tea Party, Democratic cross over and Independent voters. The data also suggests that Hoekstra may be suffering from the same type of incumbent/establishment backlash that has given rise to Tea Party victories in Indiana, Nebraska, Florida and recently Texas. Additionally, heavy amounts of campaign spending in recent days attacking Hoekstra may give Durant a boost. 6

7 Methodology - Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 general election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences on the United States Senate potential general election match-ups, the US Senate Republican nomination and control of the Michigan House of Representatives. - This ten question automated poll survey was conducted on July 28, The population surveyed consisted of a sample of traditional Michigan high participation registered voters and voters that fit Michigan general election and Republican Primary election voting patterns. The majority of these voters have participated in a significant majority of the available primary and general election and odd year municipal and county elections in Michigan since their registration. Additionally, our call file does allow for random moderate and low participation voters to be included in the sample. Our call file was randomized to allow for the maximum range of participation and randomization. - An initial qualifying statement was read to respondents asking them to participate only if they were very likely to vote in the US Senate Election for Michigan. - Forty-four thousand nine hundred and ninety-nine (44,999) calls were placed, and 1,046 respondents fully participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 2.32%. - Our list-based sample pool was pre-weighted for the gender, ethnicity and age demographics, geographical regions and political participation regions and the congressional districts in Michigan. For reporting purposes, we will focus our findings on the following issue-based categories: A. The baseline for likely United States Senate general election match ups. B. The baseline for the Republican senate nomination primary contest (filter question subset of total aggregate universe). C. Representatives. 7

8 - We have made weighting adjustments to the aggregate baseline responses based on the following four groups who were underrepresented in our aggregate polling respondents: Male respondents 41.18% of respondent universe versus 46% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. African American respondents 10.08% of respondent universe versus 17.5% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. Voters ages 18 to 30 years old 2.77% of respondent universe versus 16% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. Voters ages 31 to 50 years old 13.10% of respondent universe versus 25% of (FMW) B PVBA model projections for 2012 November general election. - The margin of error for this total polling sample is 3.03% with a confidence level of 95%. The margin of error for the respondents who filtered to the Republican Nominating Ballot Test section is 3.83% with a confidence level of 95%. Our polling study produced subpopulations within each of the surveyed election contest. Results within the sub-populations will be reported with respect to the individual cross-tab and sub-population group as it exist. C ross tabulation groups for comparison purposes Age Ge nde r M ichigan Geographical Vote r Regions M ajor 17 voting counties (Counties combine d that traditionally re present 75% to -wide e lections) Next 7 M ichigan County and O the r 59 M ichigan County regions Race/Ethnicity Re ligious affiliation Evange lical Christian, Catholic, B aptist, Non Evangelical Christian, Je wish, M uslim and othe r re ligious affiliations Vote r Political Party Pre fe re nce De mocratic, Re publican and Inde pende nt M ichigan Congressional s Urban marke t communities (Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint, Saginaw and othe r urban population ce nte rs in M ichigan) Participation in Re publican Primary Ele ction for U.S. Se nate Nomination This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW) B and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. 8

9 Data Analysis Statement The data has been separated analytically into cross tabulation results that are statistically significant with respect to Michigan General and Primary election cycle statewide Any sectional analysis within the aforementioned categories can be useful when inferring strengths and weaknesses and possible strategy. For the assessment of individual cross tabulation categories, we use a correlation coefficient model based on the Pearson r correlation, also called linear or productmoment correlation. Pearson correlation (hereafter called correlation), assumes that the two variables are measured on at least interval scales and it determines the extent to which values of the two variables are "proportional" to each other. The value of correlation (i.e., correlation coefficient) does not depend on the specific measurement units used. Our proportional model for correlating the statistical relevance of a geographical region, age grouping or congressional district is based on the random proportionality of our responde weight to the aggregate model. The correlation coefficient (r) represents the linear relationship between these two variables (aggregate and cross tabular category). The aggregate Michigan Statewide polling study sample size of 1,046 respondents has a 3.03% margin of error, with a confidence level of 95%. The aggregate Michigan Statewide polling study sample size for the respondents who filtered to the Republican Nominating Ballot Test was 656 respondents and has a margin of error of 3.83% with a confidence level of 95%. We project that any review of the polling report can allow for the statistical relationship between the aggregate and cross tabulation margin of error for the reported clusters. The poll sample was pre weighted for gender and ethnicity based upon Foster McCollum White Baydoun Predictive Voter Behavior Analysis Model for historic General Election and Republican primary election participation demographics throughout Michigan. This poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization. We strive to adhere to the principles and standards of the National Council on Public Polls and the American Association for Public Opinion Research in the gathering and reporting of polling data. 9