Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll # Page 1

Transcription

1 1 Month To North Carolina Gubernatorial Primary, Incumbent Republican McCrory and Democrat Cooper Both Lead Party Challengers; In Head-to-Head November Matchup, McCrory, Backed by Whites, Evangelicals & Very Conservative Voters, Runs 3 Pts Ahead of Cooper: 2 weeks till voting begins in the North Carolina primary for Governor, neither party's primary nomination is closely contested, according to SurveyUSA research conducted for Time Warner Cable News North Carolina. But the November general election may go to the wire. * In the GOP primary, incumbent Pat McCrory leads Robert Brawley 67% to 17%. 16% are undecided or not focused on the contest. * In the Democratic primary, Roy Cooper leads Ken Spaulding 50% to 21%. 29% are undecided or not focused on the contest. McCrory, elected Governor in 2012, polls in the Republican primary above 60% among men, women, voters of all ages, whites, voters of all income levels and voters of all education levels. McCrory will coast to an easy 03/15/16 win, barring something extraordinary. Cooper polls in the Democratic primary at or above 50% among men and women, voters age 50+, whites, Strong Democrats and liberals. Cooper is disproportionately favored in greater Greensboro and greater Raleigh. He polls less well, but still leads, in greater Charlotte and in Southern NC. Cooper is an overwhelming favorite at this hour. Among all NC voters, McCrory has a Minus 4 Net Job Approval: 42% of voters approve of the job McCrory is doing as Governor; 46% disapprove. In November's highly anticipated Gubernatorial duel, McCrory leads Cooper by a nominal 3 points, 45% to 42%, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error. Cooper leads by 46 points among African American voters, but that is not enough to make up for the 16-point advantage the sitting Governor has among white voters. McCrory leads in Southern NC by 13 points, in greater Charlotte by 8 points and in greater Greensboro by 9 points. Cooper leads in greater Raleigh by 13 points. McCrory leads 2:1 among evangelical voters, and leads by 10 points among men. Cooper leads by 4 points among women. To win, Cooper must do better than the 40% support he has among men, and he must make inroads among white voters. McCrory leads by 19 points among high-school educated voters. Cooper leads in single digits among the poorest and wealthiest North Carolinians. Cooper leads by 3 points among moderates and by 8 points among independents. NC voters (Democrat, Republican or unaffiliated) will have a chance to vote 03/15/16 on a $2 billion bond issue known as Connect NC. At this hour, "Yes" leads "No" 43% to 19%. But: opposition to ballot measures increases as election day approaches (in all geographies, not just NC), and this "Yes" lead, though by more than 2:1, should not be considered a "lock." Strong Republicans oppose the measure, which would finance higher education construction, parks, safety, recreation, and water-sewer infrastructure. Strong Democrats back the measure 7:1. Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,650 NC adults after the New Hampshire primary, between 02/14/16 and 02/16/16. Of the adults, 1,444 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 437 were identified by SurveyUSA as likely to vote in the Republican primary, 449 were identified as likely to vote in the Democratic primary. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of registered voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of registered voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 1 Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Pat McCrory is doing as Governor? 1444 Registered Voters Credibility Interval: +/-2.6 pct points Male Female White Black Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Approve 42% 48% 37% 38% 38% 43% 49% 38% 45% 45% 30% 68% 56% 53% 31% 28% 32% 17% Disapprove 46% 41% 50% 37% 48% 50% 44% 44% 47% 43% 58% 23% 31% 29% 50% 61% 56% 75% Not Sure 13% 12% 13% 26% 13% 8% 7% 18% 7% 12% 12% 9% 13% 17% 19% 11% 12% 8% Composition of Registered Voters 100% 48% 52% 19% 28% 31% 22% 47% 53% 71% 21% 14% 17% 17% 11% 11% 16% 14% - Page 1

2 1 Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Pat McCrory is doing as Governor? 1444 Registered Voters Credibility Interval: +/-2.6 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Yes No <20 Yrs 20+ Yrs High Sc Some C 4-year < $40K $40K - > $80K Cell Ph Landlin Approve 42% 66% 56% 37% 20% 19% 53% 32% 40% 43% 48% 43% 38% 38% 44% 46% 38% 44% Disapprove 46% 26% 32% 47% 69% 74% 37% 55% 44% 46% 37% 42% 51% 46% 44% 45% 41% 48% Not Sure 13% 9% 12% 16% 11% 7% 10% 12% 16% 11% 15% 14% 11% 16% 13% 9% 21% 7% Composition of Registered Voters 100% 18% 22% 32% 15% 6% 45% 48% 36% 64% 18% 38% 44% 35% 36% 29% 38% 62% 1 Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Pat McCrory is doing as Governor? 1444 Registered Voters Credibility Interval: +/-2.6 pct points Charlott Greens Raleigh Souther Econo Health Terroris Approve 42% 41% 37% 43% 46% 50% 36% 57% Disapprove 46% 45% 49% 47% 40% 38% 56% 26% Not Sure 13% 13% 14% 10% 14% 13% 8% 16% Composition of Registered Voters 100% 36% 19% 29% 16% 41% 19% 9% 2 If the Republican Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Pat McCrory? Or Robert Brawley? 437 Likely Republican Primary Voter Credibility Interval: +/-4.5 pct points Male Female White Black Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Pat McCrory 67% 71% 63% 62% 66% 64% 75% 64% 69% 68% ** 77% 64% 60% 53% ** ** ** Robert Brawley 17% 18% 15% 15% 18% 19% 13% 17% 17% 15% ** 12% 18% 17% 34% ** ** ** Undecided / Not Focused 16% 11% 22% 23% 16% 17% 11% 19% 15% 17% ** 11% 19% 23% 13% ** ** ** 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 0% Composition of Likely Republican Pri 100% 53% 47% 14% 27% 35% 24% 41% 59% 85% 5% 38% 33% 22% 5% 1% 0% 0% - Page 2

3 2 If the Republican Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Pat McCrory? Or Robert Brawley? 437 Likely Republican Primary Voter Credibility Interval: +/-4.5 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Yes No <20 Yrs 20+ Yrs High Sc Some C 4-year < $40K $40K - > $80K Cell Ph Landlin Pat McCrory 67% 75% 68% 61% ** ** 71% 61% 67% 67% 67% 65% 68% 61% 67% 69% 58% 71% Robert Brawley 17% 12% 16% 16% ** ** 15% 20% 14% 18% 13% 19% 16% 16% 16% 18% 15% 18% Undecided / Not Focused 16% 13% 16% 23% ** ** 14% 19% 19% 15% 20% 15% 16% 23% 17% 12% 27% 11% Composition of Likely Republican Pri 100% 35% 34% 24% 3% 2% 60% 35% 35% 65% 17% 34% 49% 22% 46% 33% 32% 68% 2 If the Republican Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Pat McCrory? Or Robert Brawley? 437 Likely Republican Primary Voter Credibility Interval: +/-4.5 pct points Charlott Greens Raleigh Souther Econo Health Terroris Pat McCrory 67% 64% 59% 78% 68% 72% 61% 70% Robert Brawley 17% 15% 22% 11% 22% 13% 25% 12% Undecided / Not Focused 16% 21% 19% 11% 10% 15% 14% 18% Composition of Likely Republican Pri 100% 39% 20% 23% 18% 45% 16% 14% 3 If the Democratic Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Roy Cooper? Or Ken Spaulding? 449 Likely Democratic Primary Voter Credibility Interval: +/-4.7 pct points Male Female White Black Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Roy Cooper 50% 51% 50% 33% 48% 57% 57% 42% 57% 56% 44% ** ** ** ** 48% 51% 53% Ken Spaulding 21% 21% 20% 27% 17% 20% 21% 21% 20% 16% 26% ** ** ** ** 17% 20% 21% Undecided / Not Focused 29% 29% 29% 41% 35% 23% 22% 37% 23% 28% 30% ** ** ** ** 35% 29% 25% Composition of Likely Democratic Pri 100% 43% 57% 16% 28% 32% 23% 44% 56% 56% 36% 1% 2% 5% 5% 14% 33% 40% - Page 3

4 3 If the Democratic Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Roy Cooper? Or Ken Spaulding? 449 Likely Democratic Primary Voter Credibility Interval: +/-4.7 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Yes No <20 Yrs 20+ Yrs High Sc Some C 4-year < $40K $40K - > $80K Cell Ph Landlin Roy Cooper 50% 41% 39% 52% 57% 56% 47% 53% 40% 55% 36% 42% 60% 42% 50% 60% 33% 59% Ken Spaulding 21% 25% 27% 25% 19% 6% 24% 18% 26% 18% 32% 21% 17% 24% 21% 15% 19% 21% Undecided / Not Focused 29% 34% 33% 23% 24% 37% 28% 29% 34% 27% 32% 37% 23% 34% 29% 25% 48% 19% Composition of Likely Democratic Pri 100% 10% 10% 29% 31% 12% 32% 62% 34% 66% 13% 37% 50% 36% 33% 31% 34% 66% 3 If the Democratic Primary for North Carolina Governor were today, and you were filling out your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Roy Cooper? Or Ken Spaulding? 449 Likely Democratic Primary Voter Credibility Interval: +/-4.7 pct points Charlott Greens Raleigh Souther Econo Health Terroris Roy Cooper 50% 45% 54% 55% 42% 45% 55% ** Ken Spaulding 21% 25% 17% 15% 32% 23% 26% ** Undecided / Not Focused 29% 30% 28% 30% 26% 32% 19% ** Composition of Likely Democratic Pri 100% 30% 17% 40% 13% 38% 24% 5% 4 On the $2 billion dollar Connect NC bond referendum to finance higher education construction, parks, safety, recreation, and water-sewer infrastructure, are you...? Certain to vote for the referendum? Certain to vote against the referendum? Or not certain? 1000 Likely Primary Voters Credibility Interval: +/-3.2 pct points Male Female White Black Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong For 43% 45% 41% 66% 45% 35% 38% 52% 36% 41% 48% 25% 34% 29% 46% 58% 53% 64% Against 19% 21% 16% 8% 17% 24% 19% 14% 22% 20% 12% 33% 21% 25% 18% 8% 9% 9% Not Certain 38% 34% 43% 26% 38% 40% 44% 34% 42% 39% 40% 42% 45% 46% 36% 33% 38% 27% Composition of Likely Primary Voters 100% 49% 51% 15% 28% 34% 24% 43% 57% 70% 21% 18% 16% 15% 10% 8% 15% 18% - Page 4

5 4 On the $2 billion dollar Connect NC bond referendum to finance higher education construction, parks, safety, recreation, and water-sewer infrastructure, are you...? Certain to vote for the referendum? Certain to vote against the referendum? Or not certain? 1000 Likely Primary Voters Credibility Interval: +/-3.2 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Yes No <20 Yrs 20+ Yrs High Sc Some C 4-year < $40K $40K - > $80K Cell Ph Landlin For 43% 25% 32% 46% 66% 70% 33% 53% 50% 39% 36% 39% 48% 43% 42% 45% 58% 36% Against 19% 34% 21% 15% 9% 9% 23% 14% 12% 22% 22% 17% 18% 16% 19% 21% 13% 22% Not Certain 38% 40% 47% 39% 26% 21% 43% 33% 38% 39% 42% 43% 34% 42% 39% 34% 29% 43% Composition of Likely Primary Voters 100% 22% 21% 29% 16% 7% 46% 49% 34% 66% 15% 36% 49% 29% 39% 32% 33% 67% 4 On the $2 billion dollar Connect NC bond referendum to finance higher education construction, parks, safety, recreation, and water-sewer infrastructure, are you...? Certain to vote for the referendum? Certain to vote against the referendum? Or not certain? 1000 Likely Primary Voters Credibility Interval: +/-3.2 pct points Charlott Greens Raleigh Souther Econo Health Terroris For 43% 41% 47% 43% 44% 42% 47% 28% Against 19% 22% 16% 16% 20% 19% 21% 22% Not Certain 38% 38% 37% 41% 36% 39% 33% 50% Composition of Likely Primary Voters 100% 37% 17% 31% 15% 41% 20% 9% 5 If the November election for North Carolina Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper, who would you vote for? Credibility Interval: +/-2.8 pct points Male Female White Black Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Pat McCrory (R) 45% 50% 41% 42% 45% 45% 49% 44% 46% 53% 19% 86% 78% 69% 33% 15% 16% 6% Roy Cooper (D) 42% 40% 45% 39% 38% 45% 46% 38% 46% 37% 65% 8% 13% 18% 41% 61% 75% 86% Undecided 12% 10% 14% 20% 16% 10% 6% 18% 8% 11% 16% 6% 9% 12% 25% 24% 9% 8% Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 48% 52% 17% 28% 33% 22% 45% 55% 71% 20% 16% 16% 16% 10% 11% 15% 16% - Page 5

6 5 If the November election for North Carolina Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper, who would you vote for? Credibility Interval: +/-2.8 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Yes No <20 Yrs 20+ Yrs High Sc Some C 4-year < $40K $40K - > $80K Cell Ph Landlin Pat McCrory (R) 45% 71% 72% 40% 10% 5% 60% 33% 42% 47% 51% 48% 42% 40% 52% 44% 41% 48% Roy Cooper (D) 42% 22% 17% 43% 82% 90% 30% 55% 42% 43% 32% 40% 48% 45% 37% 45% 39% 44% Undecided 12% 6% 11% 17% 8% 5% 11% 12% 16% 10% 16% 13% 11% 15% 12% 10% 20% 8% Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 20% 22% 32% 16% 6% 45% 49% 36% 64% 16% 38% 46% 32% 37% 31% 36% 64% 5 If the November election for North Carolina Governor were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Roy Cooper, who would you vote for? Credibility Interval: +/-2.8 pct points Charlott Greens Raleigh Souther Econo Health Terroris Pat McCrory (R) 45% 48% 47% 38% 50% 51% 40% 71% Roy Cooper (D) 42% 40% 38% 51% 37% 37% 51% 15% Undecided 12% 13% 15% 11% 13% 12% 9% 14% Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 37% 17% 30% 16% 41% 19% 9% 6 What if it were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Ken Spaulding? Credibility Interval: +/-2.8 pct points Male Female White Black Strong Republi Indy Le Indepen Indy Le Democr Strong Pat McCrory (R) 48% 54% 42% 42% 46% 47% 53% 45% 50% 55% 21% 87% 78% 72% 38% 16% 20% 7% Ken Spaulding (D) 38% 35% 40% 36% 36% 40% 38% 36% 39% 31% 62% 7% 11% 14% 33% 55% 68% 83% Undecided 15% 11% 17% 22% 17% 13% 9% 19% 11% 13% 17% 7% 11% 14% 29% 29% 12% 10% Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 48% 52% 17% 28% 33% 22% 45% 55% 71% 20% 16% 16% 16% 10% 11% 15% 16% - Page 6

7 6 What if it were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Ken Spaulding? Credibility Interval: +/-2.8 pct points Very Co Conser Modera Liberal Very Li Yes No <20 Yrs 20+ Yrs High Sc Some C 4-year < $40K $40K - > $80K Cell Ph Landlin Pat McCrory (R) 48% 75% 75% 41% 13% 4% 63% 34% 43% 50% 58% 49% 42% 42% 53% 47% 42% 50% Ken Spaulding (D) 38% 17% 15% 39% 74% 88% 24% 52% 40% 37% 26% 36% 44% 41% 33% 41% 37% 38% Undecided 15% 8% 11% 20% 12% 8% 13% 14% 18% 13% 16% 14% 14% 17% 14% 13% 20% 11% Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 20% 22% 32% 16% 6% 45% 49% 36% 64% 16% 38% 46% 32% 37% 31% 36% 64% 6 What if it were Republican Pat McCrory and Democrat Ken Spaulding? Credibility Interval: +/-2.8 pct points Charlott Greens Raleigh Souther Econo Health Terroris Pat McCrory (R) 48% 51% 50% 41% 49% 53% 42% 72% Ken Spaulding (D) 38% 34% 33% 47% 36% 33% 46% 14% Undecided 15% 15% 18% 12% 15% 13% 12% 14% Composition of Likely November Vot 100% 37% 17% 30% 16% 41% 19% 9% ** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful. - Page 7

8 Statement of Methodology: SurveyUSA is an independent, non-partisan, apolitical research company that conducts opinion surveys for media, academic institutions, commercial clients, non-profits, governments, agencies and elected officials. SurveyUSA opinion research is conducted using a methodology optimized for each particular project. In some cases, this means data is collected 100% by telephone, in some cases, 100% online, and in other cases a blend of the two. For those projects that are conducted mixed-mode (or multi-mode ): Respondents who have a home (landline) telephone are interviewed by phone, sometimes using live interviewers, other times using the recorded voice of a professional announcer. The youngest male is requested on approximately 30% of calls to home phones, the youngest adult is requested on approximately 70% of calls. This method of intra-household selection reduces the potential for age and gender imbalance in the unweighted sample. Re-attempts are made to busy signals, no-answers and answering machines. For surveys using random-digit-dial (RDD) to call landline phones, sample is purchased from SSI of Shelton CT. For surveys using voter-list (RBS) sample to call landline phones, sample is purchased from Aristotle of Washington DC. Respondents who do not use a home telephone are interviewed on an electronic device, which means, for some projects, that call-center employees hand-dial cell phones and interview respondents verbally on the respondent s cell phone, and means, for other projects, that SurveyUSA displays the questions visually on the respondent s phone, tablet, or other device. Sample for respondents who do not use a home telephone is purchased from SSI, from Aristotle, or from one of several other research companies that provide access to cell respondents. Where meaningful, SurveyUSA indicates the percentage of respondents who use a home phone and the percentage who do not, and crosstabs by this distinction. If sample of adults is drawn from SSI, responses are minimally weighted to U.S. Census targets for gender, age and race. If sample of voters is drawn from Aristotle, responses are minimally weighted to the known demographics of the voter file, which include gender and age but, typically, not race. Target (cell) weighting is used. On questionnaires that ask about political party identification, SurveyUSA may or may not weight to Party ID, depending on client preference. Where necessary, questions and answer choices are rotated to prevent order bias, recency and latency effects. On some studies, certain populations are over-sampled, so that the number of unweighted respondents exceeds the number of weighted respondents. Each individual SurveyUSA release contains the date(s) on which interviews are conducted and a release date. If interviewing for a particular study is conducted in Spanish, or in any other foreign language, it will be noted on the specific release. If no notation appears, interviews are conducted in English. Where respondents are filtered, such as adults, filtered to registered voters, in turn filtered to likely voters, SurveyUSA describes the filtering on the specific release. On pre-election polls in geographies with early voting, SurveyUSA differentiates between respondents who have already voted and those who are likely to vote but have not yet done so. SurveyUSA assigns to each question within the instrument a theoretical margin of sampling error, but such error is useful only in theory. Though commonly cited in the presentation of research results, sampling error is only one of many types of error that may influence the outcome of an opinion research study. More practical concerns include the way in which questions are worded and ordered, the inability to contact some, the refusal of others to be interviewed, and the difficulty of translating each questionnaire into all possible languages and dialects. Non-sampling errors cannot be quantified. This statement conforms to the principals of disclosure as recommended by the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP). Questions about SurveyUSA research can be addressed to editor@surveyusa.com. - Page 8