POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon

Transcription

1 POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon (08th May, 2013) Institute for Strategic Studies; Research and Analysis (ISSRA) National Defense University Islamabad

2 POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon (08 th May, 2013)

3 Mr. Ian Dudgeon at the NDU Courtesy call on the President NDU A view of the Roundtable

4 POST 2014 AFGHANISTAN SCENARIO: INTERESTS OF MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon (08 th May, 2013) Introduction Presentation by Mr. Ian Dudgeon Presentation by AM (R) Masood Akhtar Interactive discussion Wrap-up remarks Annexes Work Plan CVs of the Speaker and Discussant List of Participants The compilation is based on minutes recorded by RA Ms Beenish Sultan, RA Mr. Muhammad Shabbir, RA Ms. Mehroona and RA Ms. Asma Sana under sponsorship of Global Studies-ISSRA.

5 Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon 08th May, 2013: hrs INTRODUCTION The roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon, former President of Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA), aimed at discussing the key interests of major stakeholders in the context of post 2014 Afghanistan scenario. It was a two-hour long exercise participated by policy-relevant experts and scholars from within the NDU and various think-tanks in Islamabad. President NDU Lieutenant General Nasser Khan Janjua was in Chair. To recall, Mr. Ian Dudgeon is a Canberra-based consultant who specializes on national security issues. He served previously in the domains of foreign affairs, trade, and defence; and also contributed to the development of concepts related to information warfare and information operations. He has held the distinguished portfolio of President, Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA). Currently, he is engaged in carrying a study on the evolving Afghan scenario for which he is carrying extensive tour of countries in the region. At the outset of the roundtable, the Chair welcomed the guest speaker while taking note of his policy-relevant scholastic pursuits. He expressed the hope that the guest s presentation, together with discussion amongst a galaxy of scholars and intellectuals, would enable him to better appreciate the dynamics of the evolving scenario. The roundtable comprised of a presentation by Mr. Ian Dudgeon (about 20 mins), followed by a presentation by distinguished visiting faculty: AM (R) Masood Akhtar (about 20 mins). Another one hour or so was dedicated to an interactive discussion amongst the participants. Annexes to this compilation carry the roundtable Workplan (A), Profiles (B), and List of Participants (C). 1

6 SALIENTS OF MR. IAN DUDGEON S PRESENTATION Mr. Ian Dudgeon first introduced his current endeavor to better understand the dynamics of the evolving Afghanistan scenario and the perceived interests of major stakeholders in this context. He is engaged in travels to Kabul and Delhi, besides Pakistan in order to meet policy-relevant elite and scholars and to prepare a comprehensive paper on the theme which should be of interest to policy-relevant circles across the regions. The salients of the guest speaker s presentation are itemized in the paras below:- The Post-2014 Afghanistan situation has the potential of unfolding multiple scenarios. In this context, efforts of reconciliation amongst various stakeholders have brought forward less optimistic results. At this critical juncture, Afghanistan is looking ahead to the upcoming general elections and there is a great deal of concern about the country s next President and the composition of the Afghan National Assembly. Further, the situation is marked by complexity as the Taliban remain inflexible in their posture and vision with regard to negotiations pertaining to the future of Afghanistan. Clearly, as one may notice, the US is not yet at a point of achieving a breakthrough and still many factors from the grass root level are unknown to us. Furthermore, the ability of Afghan National Army to handle post-2014 scenario is doubtful which would have bearings on Taliban s modus operandi in the near future. Another factor is Taliban s probable refusal to join the new set up and at the same time, the possibility that Pashtuns would not be sufficiently represented in the new Assembly. However, one deciding factor would be the performance of the present government as to whether they were able to make any inroads into the promotion of education, health, infrastructure and good governance in the country. All indicators show that the current government failed to deliver and this may be the primary reason behind the fact that Taliban s influence cannot be minimized. The Taliban have also very cleverly used propaganda by branding the invaders. In the wake of this, there is a general consensus that change is needed in the socio-economic and security landscape of the country but the question is, will the new President be able to bring the desired change in order to make Afghanistan a land of opportunity? The new 2

7 government will only be able to pursue a national agenda if it manages to rise above short term parochial interests. At this stage, Afghanistan is divided in two areas: The Taliban area, which is alleged to carry linkages with Pakistan despite the clear distinction between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistani Taliban, and the non-taliban area. In the neighborhood, what concerns the CARs and Russia the most is the Islamic extremism manifested through the increasing influence of these Taliban in terms of conditioning the minds of Afghan people and exporting extremism to the other countries. Australia is a small player in this scenario, but the idea of Islamic extremism being exported across the globe is worrisome for it aswell. Terrorist incidents like the one in Bali, Indonesia about ten years ago was enough to serve as a wakeup call for the Australians. However, it must be understood that Australia is very comfortable with the religion of Islam and holds nothing against it, being itself home to a large number of Muslim population. India, on the other hand offers another complexity to the end game in Afghanistan. The US had earlier desired India to take the lead but the community at large remained skeptical. This includes Pakistan which is set to play an absolutely critical role in the future stability in Afghanistan. Its role will also be effective because of the shared ethnicities across the Durand line. However, it considers the Afghan Taliban and India as major challenges to its national security. The grievances on both sides cannot be denied but a breakthrough can be achieved if driven by mutual interests, both with Afghanistan and India. Pakistan s business community has been quite forthcoming on this idea and believes that a way for rapprochement must be found, invariably through increased trade and all issues should be solved politically. Concurrently, Pakistan must realize that, though India stands to benefit any way, but these steps would also extend Pakistan s influence globally and at the same time, Afghanistan will benefit as well. On a similar note, one can foresee a prospective role of the UN as a neutral body, for developing infrastructure, health, education and gender equality. The US, NATO and ISAF have already earmarked $ million for development purposes in Afghanistan and chances are, they would be needing more money in addition to that amount. Main reason being that the US may be leaving Afghanistan but is not going to 3

8 withdraw completely; therefore it is looking for an exit strategy to save face. It is likely to leave back Special Forces in Afghanistan for combat operations and a sizeable number of non-operational forces for the same purposes. Global implications of this bigger bubble of post-2014 scenario need to be seen in totality. At the end of the day, it is hoped that all the countries will be brought on board, for which Regional Integration seems to be a very winning concept. An increase in trade will benefit all and serve everyone s interests, including those of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Along with that, the world community will be interested in knowing clearly spelt out national interests which Pakistan seeks to pursue in such a situation. 4

9 PRESENTATION BY AIR MARSHAL (R) MASOOD AKHTAR At the outset of the presentation, Air Marshal Masood Akhtar (Retd) highlighted the importance of the topic particularly in the backdrop of Obama s second term. The speaker opined that 2014 will not be an easy year as Obama administration is going to be more decisive. The US would wish to eliminate Al-Qaeda and Taliban in order to diminish the possibility of any future attack on the West therefore; it would leave back a sufficiently strong force in view of the counter insurgency operations inside Afghanistan. In this regard any terrorist network like Al Qaeda, Afghan Taliban, Punjabi Taliban and TTP, do not pose any clear mission or objectives. Thus Pakistan has been put into a very difficult situation. On one hand where it continues to support ISAF efforts while on the other hand, these operations carry the potential of making things difficult for Pakistan. Like the ISAF in Afghanistan, Pakistan too needs to win this war. Thus, it is looking for a balanced Counter Terrorism Strategy. It is obvious that if Pakistan fails, others may also not succeed. Furthermore, India and Pakistan are two important regional players in the overall scenario. For stability and long-term interests the two states have to proceed towards negotiations. Pakistan is a victim of terrorism not only from within but also from the Indian and the west; illustrations found in incidents like the five terrorists captured in Sargodha (Pakistan) who received training in the United States. The peace talks and trade relations between Pakistan and India must not be held hostage to various incidents. In addition, India s presence in Afghanistan and its role in Asia pivot strategy is neither in interest of Pakistan nor Australia. Consequently, the success of the ISAF s roadmap is therefore linked with number of factors including the result of the ongoing negotiations, transparency in election process in Afghanistan, Pakistan s ambition, fears/expectations, the role of international community especially in the context of their sustainable economic support and the interests of other regional stakeholders. There are three major reasons due to which Pakistan owns this war: first, it threatens Pakistani-Pakistan identity, second, it threatens its National Purpose that is Democracy, Freedom, Equality, Tolerance and Social Justice (DFETS) and finally, it 5

10 threatens its six suggested Vital National Interests (VNIs) i.e. national integration and harmony, defence and security, economic well-being, favorable regional and global order, peoples security vis-a-vis state-security and promotion/affirmation of its national values. On the other hand, VNIs of all Western nations particularly US in Afghanistan are related to expansion of the defence and security parameters, benefit from the potential wealth of Afghanistan, containing China and Iran and promotion of national values. The Australian National Security Policy 2013 (Strong and Secure Australia) has prioritized its vital national interests as collective economic/ political security, human security of individuals, supply for food and energy security and the natural system security. The objectives are to ensure safe and resilient population; protect and strengthen state sovereignty in terms of decision-making and authority over territory and space; secure assets, infrastructure, institutions, and wealth; promote a favorable international environment; to influence/ shape the regional and global environment and to be conducive in advancing Australian interests and values. In Afghanistan, there is a need of integration of all ethnic factions through promotion of Islamic value system. Al-Qaeda has found a bigger ground in Arab Spring thus; the real threat in Afghanistan is from sole terrorists who are ideologically motivated individuals. The process of globalization, transfer of capital and information technology has facilitated such individuals. Moreover, the role of international community in future of Afghanistan should be inclusive not exclusive of the Afghan government. The solution should not be imposed from outside rather it should emerge from within Afghan polity. The future scenario should look into the interests of all nations particularly the interest of Pakistan which not only shares the common border but also common heritage with Afghanistan If US leaves Afghanistan and larger than life influence of India is established in the country, Pakistan will get destabilized ultimately leading to a destabilization of the whole region. The interests of regional security emphasize that international community should trust Pakistan as General Kayani rightly stated, Pakistan should be trusted and enabled. 6

11 INTERACTIVE DISCUSSION During the interactive discussion, the participants were keen in deliberating on issues regarding the presence of special forces in Afghanistan and impact on the process of state-building, Indian involvement in Afghanistan and fallout on Pakistan, probable scenario s post-2014 and current security situation of Afghanistan. It was opined that firstly, securing one s national interest is a universal right. Leaving back a surge of 10,000 to 15,000 in Afghanistan serves the US interest of operationalizing peace in Afghanistan. In this regard, state-building and bringing the house in order from scratch is a goal which the US foresees post The forces left behind are meant to train the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police which is a step towards building up institutions of Afghanistan. The Forces on Ground Agreement 2012 also confirms this goal. Hence, the presence of forces confirms the goal of first preparing the Afghan forces against any faction creating instability and second, at the larger canvas strengthening the Afghan institutions. Second, the Indian economic interests in Afghanistan are more pronounced than the political ones. They are inclined towards promoting economic relations with Afghanistan and keeps up with the traditional rivalry with Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan is concerned about the heavy Indian presence on its Western borders. This presence has the biggest repercussion in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. Furthermore, the situation becomes interesting with the Chinese involvement in Afghanistan. This role is expected to neutralize the heavy Indian involvement and promote stability in the process of transition. Thirdly, there might be multiple scenarios unfolding in Afghanistan Post There can either be a hybrid between the Taliban and other factions to form a government or there can also be a government entirely led by the Taliban. No matter what the case is, the truth remains that insurgency causing instability might continue if Afghanistan as a whole is not considered as an entity above every other institution. This disintegration may be caused from within the country because of two reasons: presence of local militias both in the form of Arbaki s and their absorption in the ANA and ANP is a ground reality. In addition, the heavy dependence of Afghan GDP growth 7

12 on foreign aid, along with involvement of foreign factions in Afghanistan poses grave threats to the Afghanistan security situation as a whole. Lastly, the current Afghanistan situation appears bleak. This may be considered with a three-fold focus: (a) 62% of Afghanistan is still under the control of the resistance which rises to 72% at night. (b) Opium production is at its peak being 6000 tons currently under the Americans which was once 50 tons (c) there are no job opportunities for the locals of Afghanistan, which fuels cross-border infiltration. According to a source, a total number of 1000 Afghans were stopped by the Afghan border security in their effort to enter Iran and work on daily wages. Hence, the way forward lies in an Afghanistan with no Al-Qaeda and a pluralistic arrangement of the Government. Afghanistan as a whole is a key to the regional peace and security. 8

13 WRAP-UP REMARKS In his concluding remarks, the Chair opined that rich contributions made by participants during the discussion will help the guest speaker in formulating a better report towards the description and solution of the crises in Afghanistan. The salients of the Chair s remarks are as follows:- After twelve years of conflict, Afghan society is so badly injured that there is more of pessimism and less of optimism in Afghanistan. In this war, having spent so much of blood and treasure, such an end result was never desired by the stakeholders. All the hopes are now placed in Afghan National Security Forces that perhaps they will endure and deliver. The US, the West and the Rest have become so weary of the conflict that they just want to walk out of it and wash their hands off. Those rudimentary forces that have been gathered over the last few years are expected to deliver after the withdrawal where coalition forces collectively have failed to deliver. Therefore, moving out of Afghanistan without a political solution will not only put these forces under tremendous stress and pressure but also there is a possibility of the reeruption of conflict in the country, a situation Pakistan wants to avoid due to obvious reasons. Therefore, a two-fold suggestion merits consideration: First, having been partner at the regional and global level and assisted the efforts in Afghanistan for last 35 years, Pakistan would not like to be re-ditched and left alone like eighties in the face of unsettled Afghanistan. Second, Afghanistan Security Forces should not be exposed and expected to defeat an enemy that US and allies have collectively failed to defeat for twelve years. Therefore, a compromised political solution emerging from within the people is needed to stabilize Afghanistan. Furthermore, extremism is a conflicting issue between Islamic world and the West. It is the area where combined efforts are needed to resolve the differences. There may be various reasons and causes for extremism amongst Muslims as: Palestine, Kashmir, Afghanistan Iraq and Iran. Extremism cannot be countered with extremism but it can be countered by addressing and resolving the root causes and through reorientation. 9

14 As far as Pakistan and India are concerned, they cannot remain enemies forever. Nevertheless, both have 65 years of history full of wars and clashes; therefore, Pakistan cannot afford larger than life influence of India in Afghanistan, especially when India has made ingress in Afghan security forces by way of training, while similar offer from Pakistan has been denied by Afghanistan. Moreover, while US wants India as its alternative in Afghanistan, for Pakistan, Indian influence in Afghanistan disturbs the already upset regional balance of power. US for tactical gains may look for larger Indian influence in Afghanistan, however strategically it would further destabilize the region. In Afghanistan, the main effort has been in the south while US has been operating in the center, creating a disconnect in the need and deployment of forces. Further to that, Kunar and Nooristan valleys were left as unimportant as General Patreaus focused on power centers creating a vacuum in those areas for Pakistan. In addition to that, US started negotiations with Taliban and pressurized Pakistan to operate against Taliban within Pakistan. Taliban also have held Pakistan by the throat and by siding with the US, Pakistan was declared infidel by the Taliban. It was forced to deploy one hundred fifty four thousand troops in FATA and Waziristan to fight Taliban. In its limited capacity, Pakistan has contributed and suffered in terms of men and material more than the fifty countries collectively did. Finally, any report coming at this time, should treat the Afghan issue and the region with objectivity; because there is already lot of animosity in the region. So, the report coming from an Australian academician should carry the concerns of all stakeholders equally. 10

15 WORK PLAN Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon on: Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders (08 May 2013) Chair: President NDU 12:20-12:30 hrs Recitation from Holy Quran Introduction: CVs 12:30-12:50 hrs Brief Remarks by Mr. Ian Dudgeon 12:50-13:10 hrs Presentation by AM (R) Masood Akhtar: A Perspective on Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Key Pakistani Interests 13:10-13:50 hrs Interactive Discussion 13:50-14:00 hrs Wrap up by the Chair / Presentation of souvenirs 11

16 PROFILES Speaker: Mr. Ian Dudeon Ian Dudgeon is a Canberra-based consultant whose services include policy advice and reviews of national security issues. He served previously in both the Foreign Affairs and Trade and Defence portfolios, That service included 16 years as a member of the Senior Executive Service and 12 years overseas in Europe, Asia and the Americas. As a Defence official in the 1990s, and later as a consultant, Ian was responsible for developing the concepts relating to Information Warfare and Information Operations. He has published and lectured on these and related issues, and was co-author of Australia and Cyber-Warfare published by the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at ANU in Ian has a Bachelor of Economics degree from Monash University, is a graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors, and has attended a residential Advanced Management Program at Harvard University's Graduate School of Business Administration. He has served as President of the AIIA ACT Branch since early

17 Discussant: AM (R) Masood Akhtar Air Marshal (R) Masood Akhtar, is a Distinguished Visiting Faculty at National Defence University. In his long professional career, he held several key assignments, noteworthy amongst them as Deputy Chief of Air Staff (Training); Director General National Accountability Bureau and Chief Instructor at the National Defence University. He was also Commandant at Air War College and Base Commander at various locations. 13

18 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS Roundtable with Mr. Ian Dudgeon Post 2014 Afghanistan Scenario: Interests of Major Stakeholders (08 th May 2013) Sr. Name Designation NDU Command 1. Maj Gen Ziauddin Najam DG ISSRA 2. Dr. P.I. Cheema Dean FCS 3. AVM Syed Razi Ul Hassan Nawab Dean FSS 4. Brig Nazir Ahmed COS Speaker/Key Discussants 5. Mr. Ian Dudgeon 6. AM Masood Akhtar H # 6, St # 7, Safari Villas, Bahria Town, Rwp , mak366@gmail.com DFMs & Other Distinguished Persons 7. Vice Admiral (R) Rao Iftikhar Ahmed Rao 14 House #16, Street # 27, F8/1 Islamabad Tel: Mob: Dr. Fahim Ahmed Khan H#28, St#33, Sector G-9/3, Islamabad Tel: Mob: Lt Gen Sardar Mehmood Khan, House # 26, Lane # 6, Defence Complex Islamabad (DCI), Sector E-9 Islamabad 10. Amb Rustam Shah Mohmand House # 124, Hayauddin Road, New Shami Road Colony, Peshawar (c) Think Tanks/Universities 11. Mr. Salman Khan Researcher, ISSI Sector F-5/2, Islamabad Dr. Noor ul Haq SRF/Acting President, IPRI H # 6, St # 63, F-8/4, Islamabad Mr. Arish ullah Khan Senior Analyst, IRS H # 12, St # 84, Ataturk Avenue, G-6/4, Islamabad / Ext: Dr. Maria Sultan Director General, SASSI H # 427, St # 1, F-11/1, Islamabad , Mr. Sakib Mehmood CPGS

19 H#7, St # 3, Safari Villas, Rwp ISSRA Faculty (all available) 16. Amb Arif Kamal Dir GS/RS 17. Brig Amir Yaqub Dir C&C 18. Brig Masroor Ahmed Dir DS 19. Brig M. Khurshid Khan Dir IS 20. Col Khush M. Khan DD Lib 21. Lt Col Asim Ahmed DD C & C 22. Lt Col Dr. M. Saif ur Rehman DD P & R 23. Lt Col Asif Raza DD KC&PP 24. Lt Col Manzoor Ahmed Abbasi DD N&MH 25. Lt Col Amir Hashmi DD IS&PR 26. Ms. Beenish Sultan RA GS/RS 27. Muhammad Shabbir RA GS/RS x RAs & Interns FCS Faculty x Dr. Syed Bashir Hussain HOD GPP 30. Dr. Shaheen Akhtar Associate Prof, IR 31. Dr. Rizwana Karim Abbasi Asst Prof, S&NS 32. Ms Arshi Saleem Hashmi Asst Prof, PCS 33. Mr. Shakeel Ahmed Asst Prof, PCS 34. Mr. Syed Muhammad Ali Lecturer, IR 35. Ms Nargis Zehra Lecturer, IR 36. Mr. Adnan Jamil Lecturer, LMS 37. Mr. Nasir Mehmood Lecturer, S&NS 38. Syed Ali Irtiza Lecturer, PCS FCS Students x 10 (as designated) 39. Mr. Areeb Masood Dept of LMS 40. Mr. Rameez Dept of PCS 41. Mr. Wasem Iftikhar Janua Dept of PCS 42. Mr. Ameer Abdullah Khan Dept of IR 43. Ms Tehzeeb Nisar Dept of IR 44. Mr. Ali Mustufa Dept of S&NS 45. Ms Palwasha Khan Dept of S&NS 46. Mr. Bilal Shahid Cheema Dept of GPP 47. Mr. Abdur Rehman Dept of GPP 48. Mr. Noman Ullah Khan Dept of PCS Policy Relevant Officials MOFA x Mr. Javed Jalil Director Afghanistan JSHQ and relevant agencies 50. Capt (N) Munawar 51. Lt Col Amir Bashir 52. Ms Amna Ejaz GHQ x Maj Gen Shahid Hashmat Deputy QMG,