CPGS is a registered non-profit entity under the Societies Registration Act XXI of 1860, Pakistan.

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2 CPGS is an independent, non-partisan and not-for-profit think tank with a vision to innovate future prospects for peace and security through intellectual discourse, and contribute to sustainable social, political and economic development. CPGS is a registered non-profit entity under the Societies Registration Act XXI of 1860, Pakistan. Copyright Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies (CPGS) All rights reserved Printed in Pakistan Published February 2014 No part of this publication can be used or cited without a clear reference to this publication and CPGS Office 101, Silver Oaks, F-10, Islamabad, Pakistan PO Box: 1486 Islamabad T: ( ) F: ( ) E: info@cpakgulf.org W:

3 Foreign Policy Roundtable Series Pakistan Afghanistan Relations: U.S. drawdown and implications for Pakistan Roundtable Report III Introduction The Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies (CPGS) is a non-partisan think tank established with a vision to Innovate future prospects for peace and security in the region and beyond through intellectual discourse and contribute to sustainable social, political and economic development. To this end, CPGS has organized this roundtable discussion under the initiative the Centre has embarked upon, i.e. CPGS Foreign Policy Roundtable Series, with an aim to review the foreign policy of Pakistan towards its partner states and the major powers of the World. Pakistan- Afghanistan Relations: U.S. Drawdown and its Implications for Pakistan is the third roundtable of the series; the first was on Pakistan-U.S. Relations: Convergences and Divergences held in November 2013 and the second was on Pakistan-Russia Relations: Prospects and Challenges, held in December 2013.

4 Contents Background 02 List of Participants 04 Key Questions 06 Fundamental Problems 06 Implications of Drawdown Alternative Scenarios Role of Regional and Extra-regional Powers Policy Options for Pakistan Conclusion and Recommendation 2

5 Background Afghanistan is the last tribal society in Central and West Asia. All the other tribal societies in these regions have changed or been transformed into modern democratic states. Unfortunately, though Afghan society is also in the process of such a transformation, but the trajectory of this transition is destructive, full of upheavals and instabilities. At present, as the time for NATO drawdown approaches, there are four transitions which are underway in Afghanistan. The first is the Security transition, which has almost been completed in the form of the establishment of the Afghan National Army and Police, and the handing over of control to these forces; the Political transition, which is going to come about during this year with Presidential elections in Afghanistan; the Economic transition, in the form of international aid which major economic powers have pledged for Afghanistan, almost $8 billion USD per year up till 2017, and finally the Societal transition, which is perhaps the most volatile and unpredictable of these transitions. In this backdrop, Pakistan, which is an immediate neighbour of Afghanistan to the east, recognizes that there will be numerous implications of NATO s Afghan exit strategy, whatever form it may take, on Pakistan s internal security and the overall stability of the region. What then are the policy options for Pakistan at this very significant juncture of history? 3

6 Participants The discussion was attended by renowned scholars, practitioners and members of the CPGS Team. The complete list of attendees is as follows: Chair Senator Afrasiab Khattak Moderator Prof. Dr Tahir Amin Participants Lt. Gen. (R) Syed Muhammad Owais HI (M) Former Ambassador Ayaz Wazir Lt Gen (R) Asad Durrani Dr Azmat Hayat Khan Air Commodore (R) Khalid Iqbal HI(M) Dieder Director MOFA Brig (R) Said Nazir Mr Nasir Hafeez Maj (R) Farrukh James Mr Majid Mehmood Mr Saqib Mehmood 4

7 Ms Sara Batool Ms Adeela Bahar Khan Mr Ikram Ullah Khan Mr M. Suleman Shahid Ms Sundus Ahmad Mr M. Rizwan *Various Research Scholars, HEC Scholars, M.Phil and PhD Students also attended the event. 5

8 Key Questions 1. What are the implications of U.S. drawdown from Afghanistan? 2. What alternative scenarios one can visualize with regards to political development in post-2014 Afghanistan? 3. What will be the role of regional and global powers (India, Iran, China, Pakistan, and Russia) in the evolving political situation in Afghanistan? 4. What are the policy options for Pakistan after the U.S. drawdown? Points Raised Afghanistan in the Region Afghanistan is the bridge between South and Central Asia; the nucleus of Afghan power structure lies in Tajik and Pashtun communities. Both these ethnic groups are wellestablished and highly empowered inside Afghanistan. It is amongst the last functional tribal societies of the region. The country is developing, albeit very slowly and the exposure to modernity of a country with fairly low pressure points as a result of its tribal structure have been high. As a result, Afghanistan s development has occurred along a very explosive trajectory. There is no enemy of Pakistan in Afghanistan. The speaker argues that there is visible backlash within the Afghan state s official policy only when there is a perception of Pakistan s undue interference in Afghan national affairs and internal struggles, and a feeling of being cornered only when pushed past all limits and left with no alternatives does the Afghan government retaliate in kind. Fundamental Problems in Pakistan-Afghan Relationship The security of Western border is vital for Pakistan s sovereignty, as much as it is for a peaceful Afghanistan. The speaker identified that over the years, Pakistan s policy has 6

9 unfortunately aimed at weakening the Afghan national identity, in order to make it more manageable. This has been done by proactively strengthening and supporting the Islamist element in Afghan society through entities like the Taliban, at the cost of weakening national cohesion and consensus. Currently there exists a distinct disconnect between the Pakistan and Afghan governments. The real issue perpetuating the disconnect was identified as the Pakistani strategy of sourcing out borders to militants historically this has been done mostly by the Pakistani side, but it is increasingly a strategy also being employed by the Afghan government to counter perceived Pakistani influence and/or interference in internal affairs. The resultant gap is a combination of mutual misperceptions, faux pas, grievances, trust deficit, shortsighted policies and policy differences. In addition, the ever-changing international security scenarios, and geopolitical and geo-strategic dynamics of regional and extra-regional powers are at the heart of the Pakistan-Afghan relationship today, collectively shaping and altering the dissociation between the two states. Other Issues Pakistan s policy towards Afghanistan is not the same as it was during the Zia era it has undergone many changes, but successive governments have been unable to elucidate these differences to the Afghan state and people correctly/clearly. The concept of strategic depth with the Pakistan-Afghan border as a buffer zone today in Pakistan is used simply in the context of the security of the country s eastern border from any external threat. Furthermore, the issue of Durand Line obtains an entirely different status the moment Afghanistan is independent that is to say no longer under any form of occupation by a regional or global power. 7

10 Implications of the Drawdown The drawdown of foreign troops from Afghanistan is likely to impact the four major transitions which are currently underway in Afghanistan. These are; 1. Security transition: Almost complete. The Afghanistan National Army (ANA) has developed significantly and appears to be a regular, trained and professional army. However, its capacity and ability to withstand the extreme nature of the challenges it is bound to face, that too without any foreign forces and support, is yet uncertain. 2. Political transition: This will take place as the new President of Afghanistan gets elected later this year. The event will be an important landmark in political history of Afghanistan and the first fully democratic transition since the invasion of Afghanistan in Economic transition: This transition is already underway in Afghanistan. Various international institutions and states have pledged vast amounts of financial support to Afghanistan current estimates are up to 8bn USD till 2017, half of which are to go towards securitization. The core issue in this regard however is the fact that given the practically non-existent state of Afghan industry and fragile economy, as well as the constraints on the pledged aid, there is little likelihood of sustainability of the Afghan economy on its own, without the massive influx of money that was there as a result of the presence of foreign troops and the war. 4. Social transition: At the societal level, Afghanistan is eager for a massive transformation, directly into progressive, moderate and peaceful society. However, it remains unclear how this will translate at the state level, particularly given the lack of cohesion between various power groups and the dynamics that will result from the power vacuum created by the drawdown of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. 8

11 It is important to remember in this context that the U.S. has to leave the region regardless of the outcomes of the above-mentioned transitions. Furthermore, the solution formula cannot be Afghan-led. Given the dynamic between competing entities and an already peaking power struggle within the country, the argument for an Afghan-led resolution ignores the probability of the outbreak of civil war between the warring factions should the drawdown of U.S. troops occur before the finalization of some sort of power sharing agreement. In addition, the vested interests of non-state parties (foreign and domestic) run far too deep to be separated from the development of any power sharing formula. The Northern Alliance, Taliban, Americans and all regional countries are active in Afghanistan. Several new alignments are already taking place. The second part of this problem is the fact that none of these negotiations are possible until the new president and government takes office, as the legitimacy and durability of any agreement with the current government will be considered dubious at best. This effectively places further limitations on an already inadequate timeline. Thirdly, the speakers identified that the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) currently under negotiations between the Afghan and U.S. Government is purely a dollar - motivated enterprise there is little to no interest in Afghanistan in the deal sans the financial aspect. The solution of Afghanistan s issues therefore does not lie in the BSA. Alternative Scenarios for Political Development There are four possible outcomes of the situation in Afghanistan post-u.s. troop drawdown: 1. Continuity of current regime and elections effective success of democracy. It was argued that Afghans should not be underestimated the ANA has become reasonably capable, and the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) will most probably be signed, despite the odds. While such a peaceful outcome is highly 9

12 desirable, it also remains highly unlikely without the resolution of the connected issues. 2. Taliban Victory a resurgence of the Afghan Taliban post-u.s. is also not impossible, with a return to the pre-invasion status quo inside the country. 3. Civil War the power vacuum left by the drawdown of the Allied Forces without the establishment of a power-sharing formula between the warring factions may also develop into a full blown civil war, funded by the various interest groups in the country, both national and international. 4. New Peace Deal among contending groups Speakers also raised a question mark over the capability of the ANA and Afghan Security Forces. Are the ANA and SF actually ready to handle the security situation inside Afghanistan, because if not, a new Peace Deal and a power sharing formula are the only likely remaining options for peace in Afghanistan. Role of Regional and Global Powers USA drawdown from Afghanistan is a reality but so is the fact that U.S. intelligence systems will remain intact behind them, effectively stimulating their presence in the region and regional developments and dynamics. The remaining U.S. troops may have little influence in Afghan politics, but their interests in the region will continue to be represented and safeguarded via such an arrangement. India is another regional power with increasingly significant influence inside Afghanistan. They are pouring vast amounts of money into the Afghan economy and infrastructural developments inside the Afghan territory, effectively improving their relationship with the Afghan state and increasing trust and interdependence of the Afghan society. The role of India in Afghanistan is being perceived as a threat in Pakistan, in the context of regional encirclement. Nonetheless, it was identified that the Indian role will continue to remain limited in comparison to Pakistan. While it may not have the historical baggage Pakistan does, it does not have the same physical proximity either that ties 10

13 Pakistan and Afghanistan together in an infrangible bond, and make the two highly interdependent. Conclusion Pakistan-Afghanistan relations will face a massive upheaval following the exit of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2014, irrespective of the signing of the BSA and the retention of limited forces in the country. The causes of this upheaval are numerous and varied, and will determine the direction of any new developments in the relationship between the two states. It is of vital importance therefore that Pakistan s foreign policy towards Afghanistan is revisited and reanalyzed at the earliest, and in a comprehensive manner. An initial way forward has been identified within the recommendations below. Recommendations 1. Pakistan should focus on two core aspects of its relationship with Afghanistan befriending Afghanistan all over again, on equal terms without the prevalent condescending attitudes, and prioritizing the geo-economic mantra over the geostrategic. It is extremely important at this time to phase out the fighting mode that has endured in the form of the various wars in Afghanistan that Pakistan has been involved in, in any capacity. 2. There is also an urgent need to comprehensively revisit Pakistan s Afghan Policy and review it honestly while developing public consensus on key issues. It is vital to develop long-term and durable policy options to enhance relations and cooperation between the two states. Strategic needs of the moment should not be prioritized over long term national interests; the two must be developed side by side. In short, comprehensive solutions should be prioritized over the big fixes. 3. Misperceptions/trust deficit needs to be removed at both governmental and people to people levels. Actions speak louder than words in this regard, and as long as Pakistan continues to support a parallel Afghan government, there can be no 11

14 development in relations, as there is simply no space for two governments. Pakistan must befriend Afghanistan the nation, and not separate groups within it, and immediately stop outsourcing borders to militant groups. 4. Focus on geo-economic relationship encourage people-to-people contact and trust-building exercises. Afghanistan is one of Pakistan s biggest markets and increasing transit facilities and more educational links with Afghanistan will lead to substantial economic development. The two routes of Spin Boldak and Torkham are not enough; there should be efforts to build a rail line with Afghanistan as well. Maximization of trade facilities and routes is a necessity for development, as well as affording protection to routes and assets within the country, particularly in economic hubs such as Karachi. Furthermore, greater access to education in Pakistan should be given in addition to developing educational facilities in Afghanistan to strengthen bilateral ties. 5. Pakistani media channels should also run different programs on Afghanistan, similar to those on the Kashmir issue. Programs and slogans like Aman ki Asha may also be developed. Dialogue must be continued on Track II and III to enhance cultural and trade relations with Afghanistan. 6. Pakistan first must be the national agenda at all levels. Keeping national interests in mind, Pakistan should deal with insurgency and terrorism/extremism in FATA and Swat before interfering in internal Afghan security issues. Pakistan must also be very careful in developing a new Afghan refugee policy a long-term, comprehensive policy must be developed keeping in mind Pakistan s internal problems and constraints. 7. The development of a single unified national security policy is crucial. This will require a tri-partite reconciliation amongst the political, economic and military sectors of the country. The role of religion must also be monitored and increasingly controlled in order to enforce the writ of the state. 12

15 8. Respect for any power-sharing formula achieved by all regional players and super powers, irrespective of vested strategic interests is vital. 9. A special, confederation type relationship can resultantly be developed with Afghanistan, that looks towards mutually developed solutions for regional issues. 13

16 CPGS Vision Innovate future prospects for peace and security in the region and beyond through intellectual discourse and contribute in sustainable social, political and economic development. About the Centre The Centre for Pakistan and Gulf Studies (CPGS) is a non-partisan platform established to undertake studies in policy research, advocacy and consultancy to enhance understanding and relations in diverse fields between Pakistan and the Gulf countries. We regularly conduct seminars, workshops, roundtables and conferences with dignitaries, academics and experts from every walk of life, in order to actively promote regional harmony, global peace, security and stability by making substantive intellectual, academic and diplomatic contributions. The Centre aims to harness the immense potential for increasing cooperation in the region to attain peace, security and economic development and to asses emerging trends in regional policies and devise strategies for possible future challenges. Operational Framework & Objectives Promote regional peace and harmony through integrated and comprehensive understanding of issues between peoples, governments and other entities; Strengthen strategic, political, economic and social cooperation among countries of the region and beyond; i

17 Present view point of Pakistan and the Gulf countries to the rest of the world through academic engagements, discussion and dialogue among all stakeholders for sustainable development; Identify opportunities and areas of common interest for potential cooperation between Pakistan and the countries of the Gulf region at all levels including both public and private sector; Contribute towards development of ideological and social ideas to promote tolerance and co-existence for building multicultural human society based on shared ideas and common goals; Conduct Research and compile reports for the governments and private entities to explore alternative options for efficient management and resolution of regional and international issues; Organize workshops and events to develop strong working relationship between academia and practitioners; Collaborate with the other research institutions and Think Tanks for achieving the core objectives. Activities and Services Organize periodic seminars, workshops, lectures and other events which would bring together leaders, academics, practitioners and other stakeholders, to study and discuss issues of importance for the overall good of the society; Map out future policy options by analyzing existing trends and emerging scenarios; Compile, edit and publish (print and electronic) relevant information, data, commentaries and analysis regularly; Offer training and academic services for Skill Development and Strategic analysis; ii

18 Provide dedicated Consultancy and help create conducive environment for development of our society; All such other activities which help in achieving core objectives of the Centre and its programs, projects and initiatives; Prepare annual report of all activities for interested parties and stakeholders. iii

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