Assessing China s Power

Transcription

1 Assessing China s Power

2 ASAN-PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SERIES The Asan Institute for Policy Studies is an independent, nonpartisan think tank with the mandate to undertake policy-relevant research to foster domestic, regional, and international environments that are conducive to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and Korean reunification. Asan Forum In June 2013, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies launched The Asan Forum, an online journal dedicated to the debate and analysis of issues that affect Asia and beyond. Under the leadership of Gilbert Rozman, The Asan Forum brings together scholars and policy experts from across the region and disciplines, seeking a diversity of views to harness the intellectual synergy created when perspectives compete and, more importantly, complement one another. OTHER BOOKS IN THE SERIES Gilbert Rozman (ed.), China s Foreign Policy: Who Makes it and How is it Made?, 2013 Clement Henry & Jang Ji-Hyang (eds.), The Arab Spring: Will it Lead to Democratic Transition?, 2013 Bong Youngshik & T.J. Pempel (eds.), Japan in Crisis: What will it Take for Japan to Rise Again?, 2013 Mo Jongryn (ed.), Middle Powers and G20 Governance, 2013 Mo Jongryn (ed.), MIKTA, Middle Powers, and New Dynamics of Global Governance, 2014 Baek Buhm-Suk & Ruti G. Teitel (eds.), Transitional Justice in Unifi ed Korea, 2015 Gil Rozman (ed.), Asia s Alliance Triangle, 2015 Jae Ho Chung (ed.), Assessing China s Power, 2015

3 Assessing China s Power Edited by Jae Ho Chung Palgrave macmillan

4 ASSESSING CHINA S POWER Copyright The Asan Institute 2015 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission. In accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6-10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN The author has asserted their right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire, RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of Nature America, Inc., One New York Plaza, Suite 4500, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. ISBN E-PDF ISBN: DOI: / Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Assessing China s power / edited by Jae Ho Chung. pages cm. (Asan-Palgrave Macmillan series) Includes bibliographical references and index. 1. China Foreign relations 21st century. 2. China Foreign economic relations 21st century. 3. China Economic conditions China Economic policy China Military policy. I. Chong, Chae-ho, 1960 JZ1734.A55A dc A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.

5 Contents List of Figures Li s t of Ta bl e s F o r e w o r d P r e fa c e vii ix xi xiii 1 Assessing China s Power 1 Jae Ho Chung Part I Domestic Sources/Constraints of China s Power 2 China s Economic Power: Catching up with the United States by 2025? 21 Francois Godement 3 China s Domestic Governing Capacity: Prospects and Challenges 41 Ton y S a i c h Part II Military Components of China s Power 4 Evaluating China s Conventional Military Power: The Naval and Air Dimensions 65 Andrew S. Erickson 5 Assessing China s Evolving Nuclear Capabilities 91 Michael S. Chase 6 China s Modernization Efforts and Activities in Outer Space, Cyberspace, and the Arctic 113 Kevin Pollpeter Part III Normative Scope of China s Power 7 China s Changing Influence on the Multilateral System: From Adaptation to Assertion 139 A n n K e n t

6 vi Contents 8 Evaluating China s Soft Power: Dimensions of Norms and Attraction 163 Hankwon Kim Part IV Regional Impact of China s Power 9 China s Power in the Regional Context (I): Northeast Asia 185 D a v i d K a n g 10 China s Power in the Regional Context (II): Southeast Asia 207 E v e l y n G o h Part V Assessing China s Global Power 11 China s Global Power/China as a Global Power 231 Shaun Breslin 12 China s Power from a Chinese Perspective (I): A Developing Country versus a Great Power 251 Suisheng Zhao 13 China s Power from a Chinese Perspective (II): Back to the Center Stage 271 Z h i m in C h e n List of Contributors 291 In d e x 295

7 Figures 3.1 World Bank governance indicators/income per capita (PPP) f ou r i nd ic ator s C omp a r i s on of US - C h i n a g ove r n a nc e i nd ic ator s Percentage of citizens who are extremely or relatively satisfied with government performance Satisfaction with public services and citizens perception of importance of such work by government, Views of China s influence ( ) Global favorability toward China ( ) Australian views toward the United States and China ( ) South Korean views toward the United States and China ( ) Corruption Perceptions Index of the United States and China ( ) Bribe Payers Index of the United States and China ( ) The GINI Index: United States The GINI Index: China Economic freedom in the United States and China ( ) East Asian and Latin American defense spending, (% of GDP) Naval personnel in Latin America and East Asia (2013) US ally versus nonus ally defense expenditures, (% of GDP) Leading external trade partners percentage share of ASEAN exports, Annual inflow of foreign direct investment into ASEAN from leading source countries and China, A and B projections of Chinese power 286

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9 Tables 4.1 PL A N s u bm a r i ne s PLAN surface fleet PL A A F f i xe d-w i n g a i rc r a f t PL A N f i xe d-w i n g a i rc r a f t Freedom rankings for the United States and China ( ) Change in absolute military spending (constant US$ 2011) Annual military expenditure of key Southeast Asian countries, , in constant US$ billion (2011) CNP of seven major countries in 1998 (CICIR2000-C7) CNP of 13 major countries (CAS 2003-C13) Chinese CNP versus US CNP (different assessments and rankings) 280

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11 Foreword A ssessing any country s power is a daunting task, let alone a country that is as dynamic and rapidly changing as China. Given its growing importance, it is imperative that we have a clear sense of China s real capabilities and potential. An accurate assessment of China s power is essential for any country s strategic calculations in the midst of the current changes in the regional and global order. For a country like Korea, a comprehensive appreciation of Chinese power has particular salience. While our alliance with the United States has long been the bedrock of our security, China is not only our largest trading partner but plays a critical role in our effort to denuclearize North Korea and ultimately unify the Korean Peninsula. China s rise has seen it play a more active role in the region commensurate with its growing capabilities. For the United States, Japan, and others, an increasingly assertive China, particularly in the security realm, has stoked fears of a revisionist power with hegemonic ambitions. In contrast, many of the economic and political initiatives presently being put forward by China have been welcomed by regional partners, including Korea. Nonetheless, these initiatives also pose profound questions for the existing regional order and how other states, including the United States, will respond. How the United States and others engage China in the years to come will be directly related to how they assess different measures of Chinese power. There have been many studies on China s power and its future role; however, few have been based on careful and in-depth analyses of quantitative measures of China s power as well as qualitative and perceptual factors. In that sense, this volume is a seminal work. I would like to thank and congratulate Prof. Jae Ho Chung for bringing together such a stellar group of scholars and experts for this project. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank Dr. James Kim and Ms. Park Jooyoung for their assistance in editing and bringing this project to fruition. Dr. Hahm Chaibong President, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies Seoul, Korea J u n e 2 015

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13 Preface F or scholars of international relations around the world, this is a hugely exciting moment as they are about to witness some key signs of power transition. Exploring real-time implications of the rise of a great power is not only thrilling but also rewarding both theoretically and policy-wise. As a citizen of a country neighboring China, however, there is as much concern as the excitement regarding the awakening of a giant nearby. Particularly given the track records of China s relations with its immediate neighbors throughout history, such concern is not entirely ungrounded. This volume, however, is not premised on preconceptions. Instead, it seeks to look at China as empirically and systematically as possible. As a matter of fact, this is intended as an anatomy of what China is, has, and will possess in the future. More specifically, chapters in this volume deal with three coherent themes: (1) assessing China s power today; (2) comparing China s power with that of the United States; and (3) forecasting China s power in At the end of the reading, hopefully, the readers would get a fairly good sense of where China is now and what it will become in a near future. From the planning stage to actual publication, many individuals and institutions provided financial and logistical support, as well as warm encouragement. Above all, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies was central in making this large project possible. Chaibong Hahm, Asan s president, was always supportive and receptive to new ideas. Jung-Yop Woo was instrumental in the initial stage of planning the book. James Kim and Joo-Young Park were indispensable in the stage of preparing for its publication. I am grateful to all the participants at the 2014 conference in Seoul where draft chapters were first presented. Two discussants, Linda Jakobson and You Ji, deserve thankful acknowledgment for their helpful comments. Seoul National University s Program on US-China Relations (SNU-AC) also provided support for the 2014 conference. I thank Jieun Kim and Joon-Hyung Yoo for their assistance. I also thank Farideh Koohi-Kamali and Veronica Goldstein of Palgrave Macmillan for their support and encouragement.

14 xiv Preface Last but not least, I am grateful to my wife, Hye Kyung, and my daughter, Jean, for putting up with my hectic schedule, often not in line with their usual preferences. Jae Ho Chung Seoul, June 2015