V-AUT: CONCEPTUALIZING AND MEASURING VARIETIES OF AUTOCRACY

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1 V-AUT: CONCEPTUALIZING AND MEASURING VARIETIES OF AUTOCRACY Research Initiation Workshop at the V-Dem Institute/University of Gothenburg 31 May to 2 June 2017 Version 4, May 2017 (Preliminary) Motivation for V-Aut Many authoritarian regimes 1 resisted the third wave of democratization starting with the Carnation revolution in Portugal in In recent years, a variety of countries (including democracies previously considered well consolidated) have experienced democratic regression, taking on more authoritarian tendencies (Bermeo 2016, Diamond and Plattner 2015 ed., Pappas 2016). These developments have sparked renewed scholarly interest in understanding the nature, resilience, and trajectory of authoritarian regimes. 2 However, there is arguably no single extant effort that provides a conceptual scheme of autocracies that covers all variants/regime types and no single data source provides measures of all relevant characteristics of those regimes. Furthermore, at a time when democracy is arguably under threat, we need better indicators on causes and modes of autocratization. Many existing large-n data sets focus on democratic regime traits treating autocracies as the absence of democracy (e.g. V-Dem, Freedom House). Based on these democracy-oriented data sets scholars have gauged the authoritarian regime spectrum, for example, by defining a range of regimes from these data (e.g. Diamond 2002, Lindberg 2016) or capturing the structure of the executive across regime types (Teorell and Lindberg 2015). Other data sets focus on the binary distinction between democracies and autocracies (Boix, Miller and Cheibub et al. 2010, Ulfelder and Lustik 2007). Scholars have also combined ratings of other data sets into their own categorical (Hadenius et al. 2012) or continuous democracy indicators (Pemstein et al. 2010). Several laudable efforts have been made to explicitly capture characteristics of authoritarian regimes. The prominent Polity IV data set includes a select range of institutional characteristics of autocracies as a unified phenomenon (Marshall et al. 2016). Geddes, Wright, and Frantz (2014) mainly distinguish between party, personalist, and military regimes as well as monarchies. Magaloni et al. (2013) proceed in a similar vein, but do not include the category of personalist regimes. Cheibub, Gandhi, and Vreeland (2010) classify autocracies as civilian, military, or royal dictatorships and provide several other indicators on regime characteristics and endurance. Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi, and Przeworski (2000) distinguish based on the presence of political parties between mobilizing dictatorships and exclusionary dictatorships as well as dictatorships with and without legislatures. Hadenius, Teorell and Wahmann (2012) split the authoritarian regime spectrum in monarchies, military, one-, multi or no-party electoral 1 In this outline we use the terms authoritarian regime, autocracy, authoritarianism and non-democracy interchangeably. In a later stage, we will disentangle and more precisely define these terms. 2 See for example: Boix and Svolik (2013), Brownlee (2007), Bueno de Mesquita et al. (2011), Donno (2013), Frantz and Ezrow (2011), Gandhi (2008), Geddes et al. (2014), Gerschewski (2013), Levitsky and Way (2010), Svolik (2012), Schedler (2013), Skaaning and Moller (2013), Tanneberg et al. (2013) and Way (2012). 1

2 authoritarian regimes, and other types of autocracies. Kailitz (2013) distinguishes between personalist, communist, military, one-party and electoral autocracies as well as monarchies. Svolik (2012) provides data on the type of military control and the selection of executive and legislative. Some data sets cover explicitly cover the type and consequences of authoritarian regime breakdown (Geddes et al. 2014). Data collection efforts with the specific purpose of assessing autocratization processes in democratic regimes are rare and mainly focus on the final transition to autocracy (Ulfelder and Lustik 2007) or coups d état in general (Powell et al. 2011). To summarize, during the last decades, several data sets on autocracies have been compiled, which mainly focus on more general characteristics of the regime elites and the way they accessed power. Most of these data sets are not regularly updated. Furthermore, extant large- N approaches arguably do not capture all the specific characteristics of the range of regimes that are non-democracies. For instance, we lack cross-national, times series data on the many ways authoritarian regimes organize elite cohesion including patrimonial networks (Erdmann et al. 2007) and regional power bases. Furthermore, we need to develop a deeper understanding of the extent to which authoritarian regimes penetrate society and how capable they are of exerting coercion. Other important characteristics concern the arbitrariness of authoritarian rule (Schedler 2013), authoritarian legitimization strategies (Grauvogel and von Soest 2014), and populist appeals (Acemoglu et al. 2013). Just as with democratic traits, many of the specific characteristics of autocratic regimes that we need to measure are unobservables requiring sophisticated use of expert coding. In this project, building on extant efforts we aim to and 1) develop a comprehensive conceptual scheme of the entire spectrum of autocratic regimes, and their component parts; 2) identify aspects that are not yet covered, or do not have adequate and regularly updated measures at present, and create reliable indicators for measuring these aspects of authoritarianism; and 3) build upon the existing state-of-the-art methodology, as well as the advanced research infrastructure and management systems, and expertise already developed by the V-Dem project in the collection and validation of expert-coded data. Based on the V- Dem methodology (Pemstein et al. 2015) we aim to include both factual and expert-coded data on all varieties of autocracy covering virtually all countries in the world from 1900 to today. Aims and Structure of the Research Initiation Workshop We are planning to submit a V-Aut research grant application for data collection in the spring of In order to ensure that the collected data will meet the needs of the scientific community, we are bringing together leading scholars in the field for a workshop at the University of Gothenburg from 31 May to 2 June This workshop has two main aims. First, we aim to develop and validate a conceptual framework on autocracy and start to develop a measurement scheme identifying relevant indicators, both in terms of pre-existing measures and new ones for which data have yet to be collected. Second, we aim to build a network of international experts as advisors or project managers for the research project and future data collection on Varieties of Autocracy. We start with sessions on the merits and shortcoming of existing efforts. Based on this foundation, we discuss how a project seeking to accomplish something along the lines of what V-Dem has done for measuring democracy, but for autocracies, could take shape. 2

3 Workshop Program Note: The core question for the workshop is: How should all important aspects of autocracies, as well as authoritarian traits in democracies, be conceptualized and measured, and what of these are not being measured adequately at present? Presenters are expected to address this question with regards to their area of expertise and panel topic. We envision brief, interaction-oriented interventions and not conference-style paper presentations. Based on the presentations, we are planning to make a collective assessment of: o What is already solved/agreed upon conceptually, and what is not? o Can different existing conceptual and empirical schemes be combined to cover the entire spectrum of non-democracies, or what is yet to be covered? o How well do extant measures tap into all aspects of different non-democratic regimes, and which aspects need better, or additional measures? Which would those measures be? Wednesday, 31 May 2017 State of the Art in Conceptualization and Measurement of Autocracy 9:00-9:30 Welcome and Introduction 9:30-11:00 Advances and new frontiers in conceptualization and measurement of autocracies I: General debates and typologies Chair: Ellen Lust - Jan Teorell - Joseph Wright Coffee break 11:30-13:00 Advances and new frontiers in conceptualization and measurement of autocracies II: Focus on mass support, elections and civil society Chair: Staffan I. Lindberg - Lucan Way: Elections - Christian von Soest: Legitimation of autocracies - Anja Neundorf: Indoctrination and socialization Lunch 14:30-16:00 Advances and new frontiers in conceptualization and measurement of autocracies III: Focus on control and coercion Chair: Jan Teorell - Abel Escribà Folch - Steve Wilson: Internet - Mayling Birney Coffee break 16:30-18:00 Advances and new frontiers in conceptualization and measurement of autocracies IV: Focus on elite cooptation, patrimonialism and clientelism Chair: Mayling Birney - Alexander Schmotz: Cooptation - Pierre Landry: Elite management - Kristen Kao - Carl Henrik Knutsen: Support Coalitions Dinner. 3

4 Thursday, 1 June 2017 The Indicators We Want 8:30-10:30 Processes and indicators of autocratization/backsliding Chair: Anna Lührmann - Andreas Schedler - Milan Svolik - Ellen Lust - Svend-Erik Skaaning: Autocratic backsliding in the interwar years Coffee break 11:00-12:30 What we know and what we need to know - Conceptual memo: Framing V-Aut Discussants: - Jennifer Gandhi Lunch 13:30-14:00 14:00-16:00 Brainstorming and development of suggestions for indicators In plenary: Introducing the V-Dem approach and infrastructure In thematic sub-groups: Brainstorming on potential V-Aut indicators Coffee break 16:30-18:00 Plenary discussion of suggestions for V-Aut indicators - Reporting from indicator sub-groups - Revisit conceptual debates on authoritarianism Dinner (with the opportunity to make a glass based on traditional Swedish glass blowing technique) Friday, 2 June 2017 Way Forward 9:00-11:00 Synthesis and way forward (optional) Lunch (optional) Departure/Free afternoon Dinner (optional) 4

5 Selected References (to be extended suggestions welcome) Alvarez, Mike, Cheibub, José Antonio, Limongi, Fernando and Przeworski, Adam Classifying political regimes. Studies in Comparative International Development, 31(2): Acemoglu, Daron, Georgy Egorov, Konstantin Sonin A Political Theory of Populism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Acemoglu, Daron. and Robinson, J. A Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy. Cambridge Ake, Claude Charismatic legitimation and political integration. Comparative Studies in Society and History, 9(1): 1 13 Arendt, Hannah [1994]. The Origins of Totalitarianism. Harvest Book, New York. Bermeo, Nancy On Democratic Backsliding. Journal of Democracy, 27(1), Bernhard, Michael and Karakoç, Ekrem Civil Society and the Legacies of Dictatorship. World Politics, 59(4), Bernhard, Michael, Timothy Nordstrom and Christopher Reenock Economic Performance, Institutional Intermediation, and Democratic Survival. Journal of Politics, 63(3): Bogaards, Matthijs How to classify hybrid regimes? Defective democracy and electoral authoritarianism. Democratization 16 (2): Boix, Carles Democracy and redistribution. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Boix, Carles and Susan Stokes Endogenous democratization. World Politics 53(4): Boix, Carles, Michael Miller and Sebastian Rosato A Complete Data Set of Political Regimes, Comparative Political Studies 46(12): Boix, Carles and Svolik, Milan W The foundations of limited authoritarian government: Institutions, commitment, and power-sharing in dictatorships. The Journal of Politics 75(2): Brooks, Risa Political-Military Relations and the Stability of Arab Regimes. Oxford: Oxford Brownlee, Jason Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization, Cambridge Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph Siverson, and James Morrow Dictators Handbook: Why Bad Behavior Is Almost Always Good Politics. Public Affairs, New York. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and Georg Downs Development and Democracy. Foreign Affairs. 84 (5): Chehabi, H.E. and Juan Linz (eds) Sultanistic Regimes. Johns Hopkins University Press. Maryland. Cheibub, José Presidentialism, Parliamentarism, and Democracy. Cambridge Cheibub, José, Jennifer Gandhi, and James Raymond Vreeland Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice, 143 (2-1): Collier, David The New Authoritarianism in Latin America. Princeton. Collins, Kathleen Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia. Cambidge: Cambridge Cook, Steven A Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey. Baltimore: The John Hopkins Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Staffan I. Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, M. Steven Fish, Adam Glynn, Allen Hicken, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Kelly McMann, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Jeffrey Staton, Rachel Sigman, Brigitte Zimmerman, Frida Andersson,Valeriya Mechkova, and Farhad Miri V-Dem Codebook v6. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project. 5

6 Diamond, Larry. & Plattner, Marc (ed.). Democracy in Decline? National Endowment for Democracy. Diamond, Larry Thinking about hybrid regimes. Journal of Democracy 13 (2): Donno, Daniela "Elections and Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes." American Journal of Political Science (57) 3: Eisenstadt, Shmuel N Traditional Patrimonialism and Modern Neopatrimonialism, London: Sage Publications. Erdmann, Gero and Ulf Engel "Neopatrimonialism Reconsidered: Critical Review and Elaboration of an Elusive Concept." Commonwealth & Comparative Politics Vol. 45(1), Escribà-Folch, Abel and Wright, Joseph. Foreign pressure and the politics of autocratic survival. Oxford: Oxford Finer, Samuel [2002]. The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics. Transaction Publishers. New Brunswick. Fraenkel, Ernst [2010]. The Dual State: A Contribution to the Theory of Dictatorship. The Lawbook Exchange. London. Frantz, Erica and Natasha Ezrow The Politics of Dictatorship: Institutions and Outcomes in Authoritarian Regimes. Boulder & London: Lynne Rienner Publishers. Friedrich, Carl J. / Brzezinski, Zbigniew.K Totalitarian Dictatorship and Autocracy. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass. Gandhi, Jennifer (2008). Political Institutions under Dictatorship. New York: Cambridge Gandhi, Jennifer and Adam Przeworski Cooperation, Cooptation, and Rebellion under Dictatorship. Economics and Politics 18(1): Gandhi, Jennifer; Lust-Okar, Ellen Elections Under Authoritarianism. Annual Review of Political Science 12 (1): Gandhi, Jennifer Political Institutions under Dictatorship. New York: Cambridge Geddes, Barabara Erica Frantz and Joseph Wright Military Rule Annual Review of Political Science, Geddes, Barbara, Joseph Wright and Erica Frantz Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set Perspectives on Politics 12 (02), (GWF). Gerschewski, Johannes "The Three Pillars of Stability: Legitimation, Repression, and Co-Optation in Autocratic Regimes." Democratization (20) 1, Grauvogel, Julia and Christian von Soest Claims to legitimacy count: Why sanctions fail to instigate democratisation in authoritarian regimes. Eur J Polit Res 53 (4), Hadenius, Axel and Jan Teorell Authoritarian Regimes: Stability, Change, and Pathways to Democracy, , Kellogg Institute Working Paper Series 331, University of Notre Dame, November. Hadenius, Axel, Jan Teorell and Michael Wahmann Authoritarian Regimes Data Set, Version 5.0; Codebook. Hadenius, Axel and Jan Teorell Pathways from Authoritarianism, Journal of Democracy 18(1): Huntington, Samuel P The Soldier and the State: The Theory and Politics of Civil- Military Relations. Belknap Press. Huntington, Samuel P Political Order and Changing Societies. Yale University Press. Huntington, Samuel P. and Clement H. Moore (Ed.) Authoritarian Politics in Modern Society: The Dynamic of Established One-Party Systems. Basic Books, New York. Kailitz, Steffan Classifying political regimes revisited: legitimation and durability. Demcratization 20(1) Kaya, Ruchan and Bernhard, Michael Are Elections Mechanisms of Authoritarian Stability or Democratization? Evidence from Postcommunist Eurasia. Perspectives on Politics. 11(3):

7 Landry, Pierre Decentralized Authoritarianism in China- The Communist Party s Control of Local Elites in the Post-Mao Era. Cambridge Levitsky, Steven and Lucan A. Way Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War. Cambridge: Cambridge Lieberthal, Kenneth and David Lampton (eds) Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao China. Berkely: University of California Press. Lindberg, Staffan I. (Ed.) Democratization by Elections - A New Mode of Transition. Baltimore: John Hopkins Lindberg, Staffan I Democracy and Elections in Africa, Johns Hopkins University Press. Lindberg, Staffan I Ordinal Versions of V-Dem s Indices: When Interval Measures Are Not Useful for Classification, Description, and Sequencing Analysis Purposes, Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 8(2): Linz, Juan and Alfred Stephan The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Linz, Juan. 1993: "Authoritarianism", in: The Oxford Companion to Politics of the World, New York / Oxford, Linz, Juan Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes. London: Lynne Rienner Publishers. Lust-Okar, Ellen Elections under Authoritarianism: Preliminary Lessons from Jordan. Democratization, 13, Lust, Ellen Competitive Clientelism in the Middle East. Journal of Democracy 20 (3), Lust, Ellen Change and Continuity in Elections after the Arab Uprisings. Swiss Political Science Review 18 (1): Lust, Ellen and David Waldner Theories of Democratic Change - Phase I: Theories of Democratic Backsliding. USAID Research and Innovation Grants Working Papers Series. Magaloni, Beatrix Voting for Autocracy. Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. Cambridge: Cambridge Magaloni, Beatrix Credible power-sharing and the longevity of authoritarian rule. Comparative Political Studies 41(4 5): Magaloni, Beatriz, Jonathan Chu, and Eric Min Autocracies of the World, (Version 1.0). Dataset, Stanford University. Mainwaring, Scott and Anibal Perez-Liñan Democracies and Dictatorships in Latin America: Emergence, Survival, and Fall. Cambridge Marshall, Monty G., Robert T Gurr and Keith Jaggers Polity IV Project- Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, Dataset Users' Manual, Center for Systemic Peace. Merkel, Wolfgang Systemtransformation. Eine Einführung in die Theorie und Empirie der Transformationsforschung. 2nd Edition, Wiesbaden. Nathan, Andrew J Authoritarian resilience. Journal of Democracy, 14, O'Donnell, Guillermo Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism. Berkeley. Pappas, Takis S The Specter Haunting Europe: Distinguishing Liberal Democracy s Challengers. Journal of Democracy 27(4), Pemstein, Daniel, Kyle L. Marquardt, Farhard Miri, Eitan Tzelgov, and Yi-ting Wang "The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data." Varieties of Democracy. WP:21. University of Gothenburg Pemstein, Daniel, Stephen A. Meserve, and James Melton Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type. Political Analysis, 18 (4): Pepinsky, Thomas The institutional turn in comparative authoritarianism. British Journal of Political Science 44(3): Powell, Jonathan and Clayton Thyne Global Instances of Coups from 1950-Present. Journal of Peace Research 48(2):

8 Przeworski, Adam, Michael E. Alvarez, José A. Cheibub, and Fernando Limongi Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World Cambridge: Cambridge Remmer, Karen L Military Rule in Latin America. Boulder: Westview Press. Roessler, Philip G., and Marc M. Howard "Post-Cold War Political Regimes: When Do Elections Matter?" In Democratization by Elections: A New Model of Transition, ed. Staffan I. Lindberg. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Ronald Wintrobe The Political Economy of Dictatorship. Cambridge: Cambridge Roth, Guenther Personal Rulership, patrimonialism and empire building in the new states. World Politics, 20(2): Schedler, Andreas. (Ed.) Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers. Schedler, Andreas "The Menu of Manipulation." Journal of Democracy (13) 2: Schedler, Andreas The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford Studies in Democratization. Oxford: Oxford Schmotz, Alexander Vulnerability and Compensation: Constructing an Index of Cooptation in Autocratic Regimes. European Political Science 14 (4), Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Jørgen Møller "Autocracies, Democracies, and the Violation of Civil Liberties", Democratization, 20 (1): Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Jørgen Møller Single-party Autocracies, Ideology, and Repression. Statsvetenskaplig tidskrift. 114 (4): Soest, Christian von Democracy prevention: The international collaboration of authoritarian regimes. European Journal of Political Research, 54, Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way The Durability of Revolutionary Regimes. Journal of Democracy. 24 (3): Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way Beyond Patronage: Violent Struggle, Ruling Party Cohesion and Authoritarian Durability. Perspectives on Politics 10, No. 4: Svolik, Milan W The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge Tanneberg, Dag, Christof Stefes and Wolfgang Merkel Hard times and regime failure: Autocratic responses to economic downturns. Contemporary Politics 19(1): Tansey, Oisin, Kevin Koehler, and Alexander Schmotz (2016): Ties to the Rest: Autocratic Linkages and Regime Survival. Comparative Political Studies, published online before print. Teorell, Jan and Staffan Lindberg "The Structure of the Executive in Authoritarian and Democratic Regimes: Regime Dimensions across the Globe, ", V-Dem Working Paper Series 2015:5, The Varieties of Democracy Institute, University of Gothenburg. Truex, Rory Making Autocracy Work. Cambridge Wahman, Michael, Jan Teorell and Axel Hadenius "Authoritarian Regime Types Revisited: Updated Data in Comparative Perspective," Contemporary Politics 19(1): Way, Lucan Deer in Headlights: Incompetence and Weak Authoritarianism after the Cold War. Slavic Review, 71(3): Wright, Joseph and Abel Escribà-Folch "Authoritarian Institutions and Regime Survival: Transitions to Democracy and Subsequent Autocracy." British Journal of Political Science (42) 2, Zakaria, Fareed The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. (New York: W.W. Norton). Zolberg, A. R Creating Political Order: The Party-States of West Africa. Chicago: Rand MacNally. 8