How Democracies Die. A Full Spectrum of Indicators 11/5/ minutes then Q&A:

Transcription

1 How Democracies Die Professor Staffan I. Lindberg Principal Investigator, Director, V- Dem Institute & Wallenberg Academy Fellow European Research Council Consolidator Young Academy of Sweden, Member 30 minutes then Q&A: 1. The V-Dem Approach: -The Largest Database on Democracy 2. Annual Report How Democracies Die. (?) Electoral Core & 6 Democratic Properties Liberal Participatory Consensual Electoral Egalitarian Deliberative A Full Spectrum of Indicators Existing indices that cover most countries and many years measure only some of the attributes of democracy. Majoritarian Varying Democratic Core Values 1

2 11/5/18 Measures A Full Spectrum of Indicators V-Dem covers virtually all conceptions of democracy. Varieties = Electoral, Liberal, Participatory, Deliberative, & Egalitarian Democracy Components = 45 e.g. Women s Political Rights Index Rule of Law Index Horizontal Accountability Index Public Sector Corruption Index Indicators 450 e.g. Judicial accountability, Vote buying, Journalist harassment, CSO control, Executive corrupt, Legislative oversight, Women s freedom of speech, Party barriers, etc. Liberal Democracy ,200+ coders from 177 countries 63% of raw data local experts 178 Countries 450 indicators 19 mn Data American Political Science Association s Lijphart/Przeworski/Verba Best Data Set Award

3 11/5/18 A Collaborative Effort Total: 180,000+ unique users Since Jan 4th 2016: 70,000+ Dataset Downloads 500,000+ graphs on-line tools 201 countries 10 Principal Investigators: Michael Coppedge (U. Notre Dame), John Gerring (Boston U.), Carl-Henrik Knutsen (U. Oslo), Staffan I. Lindberg (U. Gothenburg), Svend-Erik Skaaning (Aarhus U.), Jan Teorell (Lund U.) Project Managers: David Altman (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile), Michael Bernhard (U. Florida), Steven Fish (UC, Berkeley), Adam Glynn (Emroy U.), Allen Hicken (U. Michigan), Patrik Lindenfors (U. Stockholm), Kyle Marquardt (U Gothenburg), Kelly McMann (Case Western Reserve U.), Pamela Paxton (UT, Austin), Dan Pemstein (NDSU), Jeffrey Staton (Emory U.), Eitan Tzelgov (U. East Anglia&Gothenburg). Jan Teorell (Lund U.), Yi-ting Wang (National Cheng Kung U.), Steven L. Wilson (U Nevada), Brigitte Zimmerman (UNC, Chapel Hill). Key Roles: V-Dem Institute, UGOT 37 Regional Managers, 170 Country Coordinators, 3,200+ Country Experts V-Dem Institute Team Post-Docs Assist. Prof. Outreach & Project Management 12 Data Team & Analysts PhD Students Interns 3

4 11/5/ How Democracies Die. Democracy Report 2018 & State of the World 2017: Autocratization and Exclusion? Democratization (onlinefirst) Current Trend: 1.Third Wave of Autocratization 2.Large, Influential Countries 3.Media/CSS first-most, and RoL 4.Slow, gradual Executive Aggrandizement 178 Countries 450 indicators 19 mn Data 4

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6 Liberal Democracy: Global and Regional Averages (right panel population-weighted) 24 Autocratization The image part with relationship ID rid2 was not found in the file. 6

7 25 Autocratization is Gaining Momentum 26 Large Countries Expression, Media, CSO, Rule of Law - Attack Indicators Liberal Democracy

8 New paths?: Towards Democracy And Back Again? 8

9 Regime Classification 33 Regime of the World 2017 Closed Autocracy Electoral Autocracy Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy No free and fair, de-facto multiparty elections or Dahl s minimal institutional prerequisites not fulfilled Free and fair and multiparty elections and Dahl s minimal institutional prerequisites fulfilled No multiparty elections for the chief executive Lührmann, Tannerberg & Lindberg Elections for the chief executive with a minimal level of multiparty competition Liberal principles not satisfied Liberal principles satisfied Politics and Governance 6(1): x-x. Online first DOI: /pag.v 6i (also V-Dem Working Paper Series, No. 47) Electoral Authoritarianism 37 Regime Transitions After Cold War Based on V-Dem V6 20 Autocratization 16 Democratization 9

10 37 Regime Transitions Autocratization of Democracies Autocratization 16 Democratization Autocratization of Democracies - Pace 39 Catch Backsliding Early: Turkey 10

11 Access to and Extension of Chief Executive Power during Democratic Recessions 41 How Democracies Die Today : 1.Third Wave of Autocratization 2.Large, Influential Countries 3.Media/CSS first-most, and RoL 4.Slow, gradual Executive Aggrandizement Thank you 11