One century of social pensions in Africa

Transcription

1 One century of social pensions in Africa From South Africa in the 1920s to Zanzibar today Jeremy Seekings Dar es Salaam, August 2016

2 Research Programme on Legislating and Implementing Welfare Policy Reforms (LIWPR) (University of Cape Town)

3 Working papers: see WP# Date Author(s) Title Seekings & Moore Kin, Market and State in the Provision of Care in South Africa Kelly Regulating access to the disability grant in South Africa, Donovan Infrastructuring Aid: The Practice of Materializing Social Protection in Northern Kenya Donovan The Biometric Imaginary: Standardization and Objectivity in Post-Apartheid Welfare (S. Africa) Mubiru & Grebe The politics of welfare policy-making and cash transfers in Uganda Grebe Donor agenda-setting, bureaucratic advocacy and cash transfers in Uganda, Granvik Policy diffusion, domestic politics and social protection in Lesotho, Seekings The developmental and welfare state in South Africa Seekings State capacity and the construction of pro-poor welfare states in the developing world Grebe The evolution of social protection policy in Ghana s Fourth Republic : Contributory social insurance reform and limited social assistance for the extreme poor under NPP and NDC governments, Grebe The politics of social protection in a competitive African democracy: Explaining social protection policy reform in Ghana ( ) Hamer Our Father s Programmes : Political branding around social protection in Botswana, Hamer Championing the poor: Branding around poverty reduction as a response to electoral competition in Malawi, Chinyoka & Did the participation of the political opposition in the Zimbabwean government between 2009 Seekings and 2013 make a difference to cash transfer programmes? Ulriksen Social protection in Tanzania Seekings Drought relief and the origins of a conservative welfare state in Botswana, Seekings Redefining the affordability of social assistance programmes: The Child Support Grant in South Africa, Siachiwena Policy reform in Zambia under the Sata presidency Kelly We want another doctor! Citizen agency and contested notions of disability in social assistance applications in South Africa Kelly Hard and soft medicine: Doctors framing and application of the disability category in their assessments of grant claimants fitness to work in South Africa their assessments of disability grant applicants in South Africa

4 Forthcoming working papers in 2016 Date Author(s) Title 2016 Kabandula & Seekings Donor influence, the Minister of Finance and welfare policy reform in Zambia, Bukuluki Popular attitudes towards cash grants/transfers and public works programs in Uganda 2016 Chinyoka Welfare policy reforms under ZANU-PF in Zimbabwe, Bukuluki & Mubiru Social protection and the 2016 elections in Uganda 2016 Seekings Welfare regimes and distribution across the global South: Theory and evidence in the construction of typologies 2016 Seekings Are African welfare regimes different? Welfare state-building in Africa in comparative perspective 2016 Granvik & Seekings The Initiation and evolution of Kenya s OVC cash transfer programme 2016 Seekings Welfare Reform and the Conservative Social Contract: Botswana under Botswana Democratic Party governments, Seekings Affordability and the political economy of social protection in contemporary Africa 2016 Chinyoka & Seekings Why do Botswana, Namibia and South Africa differ in their provision of cash transfers for children? 2016 Seekings A lean cow cannot climb out of the mud, but a good cattleman does not leave it to perish : The origins of a conservative welfare doctrine in Botswana under Seretse Khama, Granvik The Hunger Safety Net Programme in Kenya 2016 Chinyoka Botswana s child welfare regime, Siachiwena The politics of welfare policy reform in Zambia after the death of Sata in Seekings The promise deferred: Comprehensive social security in late colonial Mauritius, Seekings Independence and the introduction of social insurance in Mauritius, Nattrass Patterns and determinations of pro-poor public health spending in Africa

5 AFRICA IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE

6 The standard story: Africa is a laggard in terms of social protection, including for the elderly Africa has: the lowest expenditure (in relation to GDP) on either pensions for the elderly (or child benefits) (ILO, World SP Report 2014). 2.8 percent of GDP is spent on social security, compared to a global average of 5.7 percent (World Bank, The Cash Dividend, 2012). The lowest health coverage, in terms of the proportion of the population affiliated to public health system or private insurance schemes: 25% in Africa, compared to 61% globally (ILO, 2014)

7 Two trajectories of welfare state-building Industrialisation protection against risks (inability to perform wage labour) for formally-employed workers (i.e. when they non-workers) Workerist welfare regimes: Germany (and then much of Europe) from late C19th, much of Latin America (especially Argentina, Chile, Brazil) from early C20th; promoted by ILO through most of C20th Agrarian development protection against risks (uncertain prices for agricultural produce, drought) for peasants Agrarian welfare regimes: most of colonial Africa and South Asia (from 1940s) and post-colonial Africa and South Asia Evolving into pauperist welfare regimes, when peasants nonpeasants (i.e. rural/urban poor), in the face of deagrarianisation (= social as well as economic) (borrowing from the British model)

8 Who benefits? Protect nonpeasants (the poor) Protect formally-employed workers when they are non-workers

9 What political responses to what challenges? Protect nonpeasants Semi-democratic response to challenges of pauperism due, in part, to risks associated with agrarianism / deagrarianisation Authoritarian response (corporatism from above) to challenges of incorporating urban workers in the face or risks associated with industrialization Protect non-workers (formerly formallyemployed workers)

10 Chile Argentina Brazil (British) Africa, S.Asia (British) Caribbean / Mauritius Agrarian welfare regimes Industrialisation Deagrarianisation Workerist welfare regimes Pauperist welfare regimes Employment-based welfare regimes Citizenship-based welfare regimes

11 social insurance as % of GDP in SD from mean

12 Strongly pauperist Weakly pauperist Minimalist Weakly workerist Strongly workerist social insurance as % of GDP in SD from mean

13 Africa and South Asia Higher-spending LatAm & Lower-spending C/E Europe Higher-spending post- Communist Central / East Europe social insurance as % of GDP in SD from mean

14 SOCIAL PENSIONS IN AFRICA

15 Social pensions in East/Southern Africa 1920s: South Africa: white and coloured citizens only 1930s: Southern Rhodesia [Zimbabwe]: not African people [Barbados Trinidad & Tobago, British Guyana] 1940s: South Africa: pensions African/Indian people (lower benefits) debated in Southern and Northern Rhodesia [Zambia] 1950: Mauritius c1960: debated in Kenya 1970s: South-West Africa [Namibia] 1990s: Botswana (deracialisation completed in Namibia and South Africa) 2000s: Lesotho Swaziland pilot programmes in various countries 2010s: pilot programmes scaled up in Zambia, Uganda, etc 2016: Zanzibar

16 Common causes: Deagrarianisation What should be done about people unable to support themselves (or be supported by kin) through agricultural production? During drought: many people At all times: some people (without kin? without supportive kin? without land?) Public policy During droughts: Food-for-work programmes; school feeding programmes; food aid for households without working-age adults Institutionalised (e.g. Botswana from 1960s) At all times: Poor Laws (Mauritius, SA, etc) or support for destitutes ( public assistance ): typically discretionary modernised through social old-age pensions etc (= social assistance, for designated vulnerable groups )

17 Deagrarianisation social pensions Shift to social pensions because: Agrarian /peasant option foreclosed: limited or no access to land, or frequent drought Social and economic changes: salience of kinship; labour-constrained households (often because of AIDS); urbanisation rural landlessness Political change: competitive elections; presidential candidates self-branding, imperative of measurable poverty reduction: MDGs, ILO social protection floor, etc

18 Welfare regime types Welfare regime type Workerist Agrarian Pauperist Economy Import- substitution industrialisation Smallholder agriculture Export-oriented nonsmallholder commodity production Social character of working class Foreign immigrant Rural migrant expected to return to peasant society Rural migrant without future as a peasant Risks protected against Employment-related Prices for products Production-related (drought, AIDS, etc) Subaltern politics Urban strikes (and, later, elections) Popular (cross-class), anti-colonialism Hidden forms of resistance (and, later, elections) Elite strategy Corporatist Indirect rule then rapid decolonisation Slow liberal democratisation Discourses and ideology Corporatist (or social democratic) Conservative or liberal Liberal or new liberal

19 Why is social assistance expanding in contemporary Africa? Characteristics of Citizenship-based Welfare Regimes in the 2000s Economy Social character of working class Risks protected against Subaltern politics Elite strategy Discourses and ideology Export-oriented; few protected sectors; rural landlessness Permanent migrants (deagrarian) from countryside (and emergence in some areas of a rural working class of landless labourers) Drought; death of working-age adults; old-age Voting (but NB character of elections); occasional, muted direct action; weak civil society Placate voters; sometimes appease donors Mix of liberal, neoliberal, conservative Weak social democratic influence