Afrobarometer Round 5 Uganda Survey Results: An Economy in Crisis? 1 of 4 Public Release events 26 th /March/2012, Kampala, Uganda

Transcription

1

2 Afrobarometer Round 5 Uganda Survey Results: An Economy in Crisis? 1 of 4 Public Release events 26 th /March/212, Kampala, Uganda

3 The AFROBAROMETER A comparative series of national public opinion surveys that measure public attitudes toward democracy, governance, the economy and market reform, leadership, identity and other issues Three key objectives: 1) Produce scientifically reliable data on public opinion in Africa 2) Strengthen institutional capacity for survey research in Africa 3) Disseminate and apply results (to decision makers, policy advocates, civic educators, journalists, researchers, donors, and ordinary Africans)

4 Afrobarometer Coverage Round 1, , 12 countries Southern Africa: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe West Africa: Ghana, Mali, Nigeria East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda Round 2, 22-23, 16 countries; added Cape Verde, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal Round 3, 25-26, 18 countries; added Benin, Madagascar Round 4, 28-29, 2 countries; added Burkina Faso, Liberia Round 5, , 35 countries (To add 15 countries)

5 Afrobarometer Methodology Respondents are all adult (18+) citizens of Uganda Nationally representative sample distributed with probability proportionate to population size Random selection of Enumeration Areas Households Respondent within household Every adult has an equal chance of selection Face-to-Face interviews in the language of the respondent s choice Rigorous double-blind translation process that ensures that equivalence of meaning is maintained across languages

6 Afrobarometer in Uganda Five rounds of surveys completed Round 1 May-June 2, n=2271; Round 2 August-September 22, n=24; Round 3 April-May 25, n=24; Round 4 July-September 28, n=2432; Round 5 December 211-February 212, n=24; Two extra surveys in November-December 2 (n=2) and January 211 (n=2). 6

7 The Uganda R5 survey Nationally representative sample size of 24 adults, based on UBOS 22 census data and related 211 projections Face-to-face interviews were conducted with Ugandan citizens of voting age between 2 nd December/211 and 27 th February 211. Survey reached 75% (84 of 112) of Uganda s districts across all four administrative regions and reaching both urban and rural areas A total sample of 62 interviews were conducted; 24 being the official AB sample and 38 being additional interviews conducted in USAID Uganda Mission Focus districts. However Results presented here are based only on the official AB sample The questionnaire was translated into14 local languages. Luganda, Runyankole- Rukiga, Runyoro-Rutooro, Lugbara, Alur, Luo, Ateso, Ngakirimojong, Lumasaba. Madi, Lugwere, Kupsabiny Lusoga and Japdhola. Local funding provided by USAID Uganda Mission and external central funding provided by the Afrobarometer Network group of donors. All field work was conducted by Wilsken Agencies Ltd The overall margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percent. 7

8 Sample Breakdown N = 24 % % Gender Male Female 5 5 Residence Locale Urban Rural Region Central West North East Kampala Education No formal education Primary Secondary Post Secondary Age Religion Christian Muslim Other

9 RESULTS One year post elections; Do Ugandans think the country is going in the right direction or going in the wrong direction? POPULAR PERCEPTIONS ON THE OVERALL DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY

10 KEY FINDINGS 74% think the country is going the wrong direction. This a complete reversal of the Jan 211 pre-election perception of the same A number of factors may explain this perception, especially evaluations of prevailing economic conditions and government handling of economic issues. A significant number of Ugandans have lost optimism. Ratings of the country s economic condition are at an all-time low, and this is the first time in all Afrobarometer surveys in Uganda that a majority foresee a future worse than the present.

11 Percent Perceptions of Overall Direction of the Country As regards the overall direction of the country, would you say that the country is going in the wrong direction or going in the right direction? AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) Going in the right Direction Going in the wrong direction Don't know n=24 11

12 Percent mention Perceptions of Overall Direction of the Country, by Key Demographics Precent Saying 'Going in the Wrong Direction' AB Jan AB R5 (212) Male Female Urban Rural NRM Opposition 12

13 Percent Mention Perceptions of Overall Direction of the Country, by Region Percent Saying 'Going in the Wrong Direction' AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) Central West North East Kampala 13

14 So what has changed? Understanding Results in context

15 Evaluations of the Prevailing Economic Conditions in the Country 15

16 Percent mention Present Economic Condition of the Country 8 In general how would you describe the present economic condictions of the country? AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) Good Niether good or bad Bad n=24 16

17 Percent mention Personal Living Conditions 7 In general how would you describe your own present living conditions? AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) 2 15 Good Niether good or bad Bad n=24 17

18 Percent mention Country s Economic Conditions Compared to 12 months Ago 8 7 Looking back, how do you rate the economic conditions of the country compared to 12 month ago AB Dec 2 AB R5 (212) Better Same Worse 18

19 Percent mention Country s Expected Economic Condition in 12 months 6 Looking ahead, do you expect the country' economic conditions to get better or worse? AB Dec 2 AB R5 (212) Better Same Worse Don't Know 19

20 Percent Country s Economic Conditions: Perceptions Over Three Survey Rounds Country's Present economic conditions. Percent saying 'fairly bad and 'very bad' Country's Present economic conditions compared to 12 months ago. Present saying 'Worse' and 'Much worse' Question text: 1) In general how would describe the present economic conditions of this country? 2) Looking back, how do you rate the present economic conditions in this country compared to 12 months ago? 2

21 Percent Personal Living Conditions: Assessements Over Three Survey Rounds Assessment of Personal Living Conditions, Percentage 'fairly bad' or 'very bad' Assessment of Personal Living Conditions Compared to 12 Months Ago, Percent Saying 'Worse' or 'Much worse' Expectations of Personal Living Conditions in Future, Percent Expecting to be 'Worse' or 'Much worse' in 12 months time Question text: 1) In general how would describe your own present living conditions? 2) Looking back, how do you rate your living conditions compared to 12 months ago? 3) Looking ahead do you expect your living conditions to better or worse? 21

22 Understanding the present economic context, realities and concerns

23 Percent Most Important Problems: Increasing Importance of Economic Issues Dec Jan/Feb Management of the Economy Rates and Taxes Unemployment Poverty Food Shortage In your opinion, what are the three most important problems facing this country that government should address? 23

24 Percent Most Important Problems: Declining Emphasis on Social Problems Dec- Jan/Feb Health Infrastructure/roads Education In your opinion, what are the three most important problems facing this country that government should address? 24

25 Percent Lived Poverty 8 7 Lived Poverty: How many times have you gone without the following in the past year. [Percent saying 'several times, Many time or Always ] Gone without enough food to eat Gone without enough clean water Gone without medicines/meadical treatment Gone without enough fuel to cook food Gone without a cash income AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) n=24 25

26 Percent Perceptions of Government Responsiveness 6 Do you think that Government is doing enough to address the current increases in the cost of living and food prices? Far too little Somewhat too little About the right amount Somewhat too much Far too much Don't know n=24 26

27 Percent Government Performance Ratings on Economic Issues How well or badly would say the government is handling the following matters? [Percent saying 'very badly' or fairly 'badly'] 41 Managing the Economy Improving the living standards of the poor Creating Jobs Keeping prices down Narrowing gaps btwn rich & Poor Ensuring that everyone has enough to eat AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) n=24 27

28 Percent Equitable Use of Oil Revenues? 35 3 How much of the oil revenue do you think will be used by the government for the benefit of all Ugandans? None of it Only a little Some of it Most of it All of it Don't know 2 n=24 28

29 Percent Parliament to Disclose Details of Oil Agreements? Support for full disclosure or non disclosure of oil exploration agreements. [percent agreeing with statements] 17 Agree to non disclose 79 Agree to disclosure Please tell me which of the following statements is closest to your view? Statement 1: Government is right not to fully disclose to parliament the details of the contracts it has made with oil exploration companies in order to avoid the politicization of oil exploration contracts. Statement 2: Government should fully disclose to parliament the details of the contracts it has made with oil exploration companies in order to minimize corruption n=24 29

30 Percent mention Who/What to Blame for Current Economic Conditions? 3 25 In your opinion, which of the following is most to blame for the current increased cost of living and food prices Poor Excessive management campaign of the economy spending by government during the 211 elections Rising fuel prices The global economic situation The value of the shilling against the dollar Don't know The political unrest in some Arab nations such as Libya None of the above n=24 3

31 So how is this affecting political attitudes and other assessments?

32 Satisfaction with the supply of Democracy 32

33 Percent mention Extent of Democracy in Uganda 5 In your Opinion, how much of a democracy is Uganda today? Not a democracy A democracy, with major problems A democracy, but with minor problems 12 A full democracy 1 Do not understand question/democracy Don't know AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) n=24 33

34 Percent mention Satisfaction with Democracy Overall how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in Uganda? Uganda is not a democracy Not at all satisfied Not very satisfied Fairly satisfied Very satisfied Don't Know AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) n=24 34

35 Percent Freeness and Fairness of the Last Election 4 35 On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and fairness of the last national elections? Not free and fair Free and fair, with major problems Free and fair, but with minor problems Completely free and fair Do not understand the question 6 6 Don't know 26 elections (results Jan 211) 211 elections (results Jan/feb 212) n=24 35

36 Percent Trust in State Institutions 8 How much do you trust each of the following? [Percent trust somewhat' 'or a lot' The President Parliament Ruling Party Opposition Political parties The Police The Army AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) n=24 36

37 Percent Performance Approval Ratings 9 8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the following people have performed their jobs over the past 12 months? [Percent approve] The President Your MP 3 2 AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) n=24 37

38 Percent Political Party Affiliation Do you feel close to any political party? AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) No, not close to any party Yes, feels close to a party 3 5 Refused to answer 1 1 Don't know n=24 38

39 Percent Party Choice Which Party closest to? National resistance movement (NRM) Forum for democratic change (FDC) 3 4 Democratic party (DP) Conservative party (CP) 3 2 Uganda peoples congress (UPC) 1 The peoples progressive party Uganda federal alliance Not applicable 5 4 Refused to answer Don't know AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) 39

40 Percent Vote Choice 7 If a presidentail election were held tomorrow, which party's candidate would you vote for? National Resistance Movement [NRM] Forum for Democraric Change [FDC] Democratic Party [DP] 2 Uganda Peoples Congress [UPC] Would not vote Refused to answer Don't know AB Jan 211 AB R5 (212) n=24 4

41 For More Information: 41