AGE CURVE. The. How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm. Kenneth W. Gronbach

Transcription

1 The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach

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3 Wisconsin, A Demographic Crossroad Ahead!

4 Where are the people?

5 World Population Growth billion billion billion billion billion?

6 World Population

7 Corn and Potatoes

8 World population is like a bathtub.

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10 Demographic Dominos

11 Demography 101 Two similar groups of people, one has 1,000 people and one has 500 people. Which group will require the most food? If we prepare the same amount of food for both groups and the group of 500 doesn t finish can we assume they were not hungry or didn t like the food? Which group is likely to have the most criminals? Traffic accidents? Old people over ninety? People in the military? People who will retire to Florida? Which group will supply you with the most efficient opportunities? Which group is likely to need more of everything?

12 Talent Pool?

13 Hot Dogs at the State Fair

14 The parking lot is filling up with school buses!

15 Mom s Apple Pie

16 Demographics 201 More is more. Groups of people Groups of people are. are predictable.

17 Bureau of Labor Statistics IPHONE MOTORCYCLES RINGS COLLEGE CARS HOMES/ KIDS 2 ND MORTGAGE RETIREMENT TRAVEL BICYCLES TRICYCLES 5-15 DIAPERS HEALTHCARE WHEELCHAIRS FUNERALS

18 Stages Of Life (Part 2) Heavy Lifters

19 Demographics More is more. Groups of people are 2. The more things change, the more. predictable. If you want to predict the 3. If you want to predict the future,! future, DO THE MATH!

20 Motorcycle Sales + Births Motorcycle Sales

21 1964 to 1998 equals 34 years!

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23 Birth Chart Build US Live Births Latino Immigration 40 Million+ GI Generation 56.6 Million Silent Generation 52.5 Million Baby Boomers 78.2 Million Generation X 69.5 Million Generation Y 100 Million (through 2010)

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25 CBS Interview

26 Generation Y Born 1985 to 2004

27 Generation Y is Why. Generation Y was born 1985 to 2004 and is bigger than the Baby Boomers (about 83 million). They are very green, humanitarian and do not see race or color. They are flooding the labor market and currently face 50% unemployment. They should supply you with all the truck drivers you will ever need. They will open a sea of small businesses because they need to eat. They will speak cyber as a first language. They will move out of their parents homes! They have to live somewhere!

28 Generation Y workplace requirements. Purpose Transparency/Integrity/Honesty Green/Caring/Fairness/Empathy Advanced Cyber Focus They won t work for mean people!

29 Gen Y weddings will set records!

30 Car or Internet?

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33 Smaller Households

34 Generation Y young men will flood technical schools

35 A Huge Paradigm Shift As Boomers retire a void is created in the technical fields they dominate. Generation X rejected the technical blue collar professions. Technical schools filled up with the best and the brightest seeking high paying in demand jobs. Today a good mechanic can earn more than an attorney.

36 Piercings and Tattoos will make the workplace a little more interesting.

37 The Boomers are Coming

38 What is your Disneyland?

39 Just Burgers?

40 What is your Egg McMuffin?

41 Big Cars

42 Powerful lightweight two door cars

43 What is your Mustang?

44 Baby Boomers will never change! Born 1945 to1964

45 They just change everything else! Baby Boomers will redefine retirement. Baby boomers will eventually flood into Florida and the South in general. Baby Boomers are currently 50 to 69 years old, peaked at about 58. As the current housing market corrects...watch-out! How will exiting/retiring Boomers influence Wisconsin s commerce?

46 The over-65 population is expected to more than double by 2050 according to the United States Census, bolstered by Baby Boomers, people born between 1945 and 1964, adding to the strain on an already existing shortage of physicians.

47 Boomer Retirement Are you ready to have up to 25% of top level executives and older staff retire in the next two to three years?

48 Generation X Born 1965 to 1984

49 Gen X Perils Closed maternity wards Crippled the diaper and toy industry Shut down public schools (not colleges) Erased Japanese motorcycle sales Baffled Detroit and Japan auto makers Shrunk U.S. workforce creating immigration issue Tipping point in housing crisis Gutted the middle class and the Republican Party A management shortage? You think!

50 Look for women to lead.

51 The glass ceiling is shattering. Women out number men in college at a 60/40 ratio. They will run things.

52 Women in the Workplace On average women make about 75% of what men make for the same job.

53 Where is Three D Printing Going?

54 Think Remote Everything

55 The Internet of things.

56 Cars that Drive Themselves!

57 Think Everything Elderly on Steroids!

58 Think Remote Education/Learning, MOOCs.

59 The traditional education model is history! We are about to find out that we did not get much for our trillion three hundred billion dollar student loan debt. The age of the liberal arts education is about to give way to specific, measurable training.

60 Changes in housing and hotels, think small, think IKEA!

61 Movies and entertainment move indoors.

62 Fewer kids are riding bicycles.

63 Millions of Kids Vanish! In April of 1987 seven million children mysteriously and suddenly disappeared in the United States without a trace. There was virtually no publicity, outrage, shock or grief. No police action was taken at the local, state or federal level. Why?

64 Starting in 2015 the number of funerals will start to double!

65 17% Latinos

66 The Latino Influence Latinos are spiritual Catholics. Latinos are very family oriented and take responsibility for their elderly. Latinos are aspiring and assimilate into U.S. culture in twenty years. They will buy millions of homes! They will consume and populate the labor force at all levels!

67 13% African American

68 The African American Influence The symbolic impact of the Obama family in the White House has had a profound positive influence on African American culture. As African Americans advance socio-economically so will their influence on construction, housing and the U.S. economy.

69 5% Asian Americans

70 Asians make up only about 5% of our total population but that will change as Asians continue to flood this country especially from China. Asians will positively influence the U.S. economy!

71 Smart Rich Asian and E.U. Entrepreneurs

72 35% of U.S. Market is Minority!

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75 What color is Wisconsin? USA Wisconsin Total Population 316,000,000 5,743,000 White 63% 82.5% Black 13% 6.5% Latino 17% 6.3% Asian 5% 2.5% Other 2% 2.2%

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77 The Baby-Blenders 2025 to 2044 No more red-heads

78 Will manufacturing return to the United States?

79 China present 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies

80 Four Grandparents, Two Parents, One child

81 China present 500,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies

82 90,000,000 young Chinese men who have no prospect of marrying!

83 China s One Child Only Policy is the biggest demographic, economic and humanitarian blunder in the history of the world!

84 Per Capita Contribution GDP United States $50,000 China $5,000 The United states has not been at China s level of productivity since 1865!

85 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies

86 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies

87 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies

88 A 16 year old Russian male has a 50/50 chance of living to 60.

89 The abortion rate and the birth rate in Russia are equal! Fertility is 1.41

90 Vladimir Putin A government of censorship, corruption, brutality, oppression and assassination. George F. Will, Washington Post

91 A Russia Public Relations Victory!

92 Ukraine, a public relations nightmare!

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94 50 million healthy Ukrainians

95 Mumbai, India

96 The United States represents 5% of the world s population, but precipitates 25% of the world s economy!

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99 The United States runs on oil. About 18 million barrels a day We re using theirs up first.

100 Middle Eastern fertility is well above Western averages. Middle Eastern Immigrant s fertility in the European Union is well above native fertility. Over time the Muslim culture will dominate the European Union. Western European culture and Muslim culture are not homogeneous.

101 Do we have an immigrant problem? No. We are a nation of immigrants!

102 Ellis Island: In 1892 they opened the doors and let the people through!

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104 U.S. Prisons

105 We currently have 2,000,000 men in jail in the United States. About 1,000,000 African Americans, 500,000 Latinos and 500,000 whites

106 There are only about 200,000 women in jail. Why?

107 Marijuana will be legal soon. It will be very heavily taxed. It will be a bigger crop than wheat! It will be a cultural issue.

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109 Housing s Perfect Storm! The foreclosure/housing issue is correcting, freeing up five years of pent up demand. Baby Boomers will sell their houses, retire and move south. Unemplyment will decline African Americans and Latinos will build and buy houses. Asian and European immigrants will build and buy houses. The huge Generation Y will rent, buy and build. Women will buy and build houses. The U.S. economy is housing!

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111 Imagine

112 Big Changes Ahead! Medicine-We are going to live a lot longer. Manufacturing-automation and 3D printing. Housing-Small and sustainable. Education- Big changes - MOOCS? Food consumption will be more nutrition based. The U.S. economy will restore and sore to new heights we can t comprehend!

113 The best days for the United States and Wisconsin are ahead of us, not behind us! Believe it!

114 Remember: There are three types of people in the world. Those that can count. And those that can t.

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118 The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach

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122 (2) Department of Food Science and Technology, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA

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125 PLASTIC

126 According to the National Household Travel Survey, from 2001 to 2009

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