AGE CURVE. The. How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm. Kenneth W. Gronbach
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1 The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach
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3 A Demographic Crossroad Ahead!
4 Who am I and why should you listen to me?
5
6 Where are the people?
7 Land of the free, home of the brave. Brave people make things happen because they are not afraid to take chances. Fear and uncertainty prevents us from taking chances, making decisions. Fear and uncertainty are often products of bad information. The people of the United States did not get to be where they are today based on fear based decisions.
8 Knowledge is Power Sir Francis Bacon
9 to the Republic for which it stands We live in a republic, not a democracy. In a republic there is liberty and justice for all because factions, regardless of their size, have power. A republic is predicated on intricate checks and balances that prevent any one faction from seizing complete control. Warring political factions keep each other honest by design.
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11 Domino Theory
12 Demographics More is more.
13 Demography 101 Two similar groups of people, one has 1,000 people and one has 500 people. Which group will require the most food? If we prepare the same amount of food for both groups and the group of 500 doesn t finish can we assume they were not hungry or didn t like the food? Which group is likely to have the most criminals? Traffic accidents? Old people over ninety? People in the military? People who will retire to Florida? Which group will supply you with the most efficient opportunities? Which group is likely to need more property record recording?
14 Hot Dogs at the State Fair
15 The parking lot is filling up with school buses!
16 Mom s Apple Pie
17 Where do we get the information to improve our lives and our businesses? The silver screen? The flat screen? The computer screen?
18
19 16 minutes of commercial messages 14 minutes of news
20 If it Bleeds, it leads!
21 Good information is like gold. You need to mine it. It s hard work!
22 When do you brush? The internet of things!
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24 Demographics 201 More is more. Groups of people are Groups of people. are predictable.
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27 Demographics More is more. Groups of people are 2. The more things change, the more. predictable. If you want to predict the 3. If you want to predict the future,! future, DO THE MATH!
28 Motorcycle Sales + Births Motorcycle Sales
29 Time Ages Humans You can t slow it down You can t speed it up You can t pretend it doesn t happen
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31 Birth Chart Build US Live Births Latino Immigration 40 Million+ Number of Births (in Millions) GI Generation 56.6 Million Silent Generation 52.5 Million Baby Boomers 78.2 Million Generation X 69.5 Million Generation Y 100 Million (through 2010)
32 Starting in 2015 the number of funerals will start to double!
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34 World Infant Mortality Rates
35 CBS Interview
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37 Generation Y is Why. Generation Y was born 1985 to 2004 and is bigger than the Baby Boomers (about 83 million). They are very green, humanitarian and do not see race or color. They significantly influence trillions in consumer spending. They are flooding the labor market and currently face 50% unemployment. They will open a sea of small businesses because they need to eat. They will speak cyber as a first language. They have to live somewhere!
38 Big Cars!
39 Powerful small lightweight two door cars
40 What is your Mustang?
41 Generation Y workplace requirements. Purpose Transparency/Integrity/Honesty Green/Caring/Fairness/Empathy Advanced Cyber Focus They won t work for mean people!
42 Gen Y Weddings about to Spike!
43 Car or Internet?
44 Teen Pregnancy?
45 The Boomers are Coming
46 What is your Disneyland?
47 Generation Y young men will flood technical schools
48 A Huge Paradigm Shift As Boomers retire a void is created in the technical fields they dominate. Generation X rejected the technical blue collar professions. Technical schools filled up with the best and the brightest seeking high paying in demand jobs. Today a good mechanic can earn more than an attorney.
49 Piercings and Tattoos will make the workplace a little more interesting.
50 The traditional education model is history! We are about to find out that we did not get much for our trillion dollar student loan debt. The age of the liberal arts education is about to give way to specific, measurable training.
51 Generation Y will redefine marketing. The dawning of the Age of the Customer. The end of the Age of the Seller. The end of hype. The beginning of total transparency.
52 Unemployment will nosedive in the next five years!
53 Baby Boomers will never change
54 They just change everything else! Baby Boomers will redefine retirement. Baby boomers will eventually flood into Florida and the South in general. Baby Boomers are currently 49 to 68 years old, peaked at about 57. As the current housing market corrects...watch-out! How will exiting/retiring Boomers influence property records?
55 Just Burgers?
56 What is your Egg McMuffin?
57 The biggest worker retirement in the history of the United States is about to happen!
58 Boomer Retirement Are you ready to have up to 25% of top level executives and older staff retire in the next two to three years?
59 Generation X
60 Attendance Down 10%
61 Gen X Perils Closed maternity wards Crippled the diaper and toy industry Shut down public schools (not colleges) Erased Japanese motorcycle sales Baffled Detroit and Japan auto makers Shrunk U.S. workforce creating immigration issue Tipping point in housing crisis Gutted the middle class and the Republican Party A management shortage? You think!
62 Look for women to lead.
63 The glass ceiling is shattering. Women out number men in college at a 60/40 ratio. They will run things.
64 Women in the Workplace On average women make about 75% of what men make for the same job.
65 17% Latinos
66 The Latino Influence Latinos are spiritual Catholics. Latinos are very family oriented and take responsibility for their elderly. Latinos are aspiring and assimilate into U.S. culture in twenty years. Latino influence on our culture will grow dramatically as they advance socioeconomically.
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71 5% Asian Americans
72 Asians make up only about 5% of our total population but that will change as Asians begin to flood this continent especially from China. Asians will influence construction and housing!
73 13% African American
74 The African American Influence The symbolic impact of the Obama family in the White House has had a profound positive influence on African American culture. As African Americans advance socio-economically so will their influence on construction and housing. And recording!
75 Did Dr. King ask for a hand-out? No! He asked for a hand up.
76 Bigotry and Economics? Bigotry is an economic enemy. Oppression is very expensive. The United States needs to cultivate as many heavy lifter tax payers as possible especially in the Generation X age range of 29 to 48 years old.. How quickly can we advance African American, Latinos and immigrants?
77 So.If you re a bigot, get over it!
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80 The Baby-Blenders 2025 to 2044 No more red-heads
81 Will manufacturing return to the United States?
82 China present 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
83 Four Grandparents, Two Parents, One child
84 China present 500,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
85 30,000,000 young Chinese men who have no prospect of marrying!
86 China s One Child Only Policy is the biggest demographic, economic and humanitarian blunder in the history of the world!
87
88 South Korea Fertility 1.2
89 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
90 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
91 400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
92 A 16 year old Russian male has a 50/50 chance of living to 60.
93 The abortion rate and the birth rate in Russia are equal! Fertility is 1.41
94 Russia s Population In ,000,000 Today 130,000,000 A Net Mortality Country
95 Vladimir Putin A government of censorship, corruption, brutality, oppression and assassination.
96
97 Mumbai
98 The United States represents 5% of the world s population, but precipitates 25% of the world s economy!
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100 The United States runs on oil. About 18 million barrels a day We re using theirs up first.
101 Egypt and Libya?
102 Middle Eastern fertility is well above Western averages. Middle Eastern Immigrant s fertility in the European Union is well above native fertility. Over time the Muslim culture will dominate the European Union. Western European culture and Muslim culture are not homogeneous.
103 Do we have an immigrant problem? No. We are a nation of immigrants!
104
105 Ellis Island: In 1892 they opened the doors and let the people through!
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108 Cities will become dangerous places, again, as crime increases.
109 Cyber/Robo Cops
110 U.S. Prisons
111 We currently have 2,000,000 men in jail in the United States. About 1,000,000 African Americans, 500,000 Latinos and 500,000 whites
112 There are only about 200,000 women in jail.
113 Marijuana will be legal soon. It will be very heavily taxed. It will be a bigger crop than wheat! It will be a problem!
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117 Housing s Perfect Storm! The foreclosure/housing issue is correcting, freeing up five years of pent up demand. Baby Boomers will sell their houses, retire and move south. African Americans and Latinos will build and buy houses. Asian and European immigrants will build and buy houses. The huge Generation Y will rent, buy and build. Women will buy and build houses. The U.S. economy is housing! The demand for property records will spike!
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119 Wal-Mart s retail model only works in mature markets. Boomer s peak consuming years are over. Small business will return to the United States with a vengeance! God help us if Wal-Mart s vendor model controls our food.
120 Imagine
121 Big Changes Ahead! Medicine-We are going to live a lot longer. Manufacturing-automation and 3D printing. Housing-Small and sustainable. Education-The traditional model is dead. Food consumption will be more nutrition based. The U.S. economy will restore and sore to new heights we can t comprehend!
122 We need to have vision
123 The best days for the United States are ahead of us, not behind us! Believe it!
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127 The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach
AGE CURVE. The. How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm. Kenneth W. Gronbach
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