AGE CURVE. The. How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm. Kenneth W. Gronbach
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1 The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach
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3 We need to have vision
4 United States A Demographic Crossroad Ahead!
5 Where are the people?
6 World Population Growth billion billion billion billion billion?
7 World Population
8 Corn and Potatoes
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10 World population is like a bathtub.
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12 Demographic Dominos
13 to the Republic for which it stands We live in a republic, not a democracy. In a republic there is liberty and justice for all because factions, regardless of their size, have power. A republic is predicated on intricate checks and balances that prevent any one faction from seizing complete control. Warring political factions keep each other honest by design.
14 What is far and away the biggest enemy to any society, culture and government? Corruption! Did our founding fathers understand this?
15
16 Demographics More is more.
17 Demography 101 Two similar groups of people, one has 1,000 people and one has 500 people. Which group will require the most food? If we prepare the same amount of food for both groups and the group of 500 doesn t finish can we assume they were not hungry or didn t like the food? Which group is likely to have the most criminals? Traffic accidents? Old people over ninety? People in the military? People who will retire to Florida? Which group will supply you with the most efficient opportunities? Which group is likely to need more Outdoor Power Equipment and Engine Service?
18 Hot Dogs at the State Fair
19 The parking lot is filling up with school buses!
20 Mom s Apple Pie
21 Where do we get the information to improve our lives and our businesses? The silver screen? The flat screen? The computer screen?
22
23 16 minutes of commercial messages 14 minutes of news
24 If it Bleeds, it leads!
25 Demographics 201 More is more. Groups of people Groups of people are. are predictable.
26 (yrs) Stages Of Life
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28 Demographics More is more. Groups of people are 2. The more things change, the more. predictable. If you want to predict the 3. If you want to predict the future,! future, DO THE MATH!
29 Motorcycle Sales + Births Motorcycle Sales
30 1964 to 1998 equals 34 years!
31 Time Ages Humans You can t slow it down You can t speed it up You can t pretend it doesn t happen
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33 Birth Chart Build US Live Births Latino Immigration 40 Million+ GI Generation 56.6 Million Silent Generation 52.5 Million Baby Boomers 78.2 Million Generation X 69.5 Million Generation Y 100 Million (through 2010)
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35 Starting in 2015 the number of funerals will start to double!
36 The Death Industry The United States does not have enough funeral homes, crematoriums or cemeteries to handle Baby Boomer volume. Big changes ahead! Big challenges ahead!
37 CBS Interview
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39 Generation Y is Why. Generation Y was born 1985 to 2004 and is bigger than the Baby Boomers (about 86 million). They are very green, humanitarian and do not see race or color. They are flooding the labor market and currently face 50% unemployment. They should supply you with all the truck drivers you will ever need. They will open a sea of small businesses because they need to eat. They will speak cyber as a first language. They will move out of their parents homes! They have to live somewhere!
40 Big Cars!
41 Powerful small lightweight two door cars
42 What is the new Mustang?
43 Just Burgers?
44 What is your Egg McMuffin?
45 Generation Y workplace requirements. Purpose Transparency/Integrity/Honesty Green/Caring/Fairness/Empathy Advanced Cyber Focus They won t work for mean people!
46 Gen Y weddings will set records!
47 Car or Internet?
48 Generation Y young men will flood technical schools
49 A Huge Paradigm Shift As Boomers retire a void is created in the technical fields they dominate. Generation X rejected the technical blue collar professions. Technical schools filled up with the best and the brightest seeking high paying in demand jobs. Today a good mechanic can earn more than an attorney. Can someone make a living working for you?
50 Piercings and Tattoos will make the workplace a little more interesting.
51 The traditional education model is history! We are about to find out that we did not get much for our trillion three hundred billion dollar student loan debt. The age of the liberal arts education is about to give way to specific, measurable training.
52 Baby Boomers will never change! Born 1945 to 1964
53 They just change everything else! Baby Boomers will redefine retirement. Baby boomers will eventually flood into Florida and the South in general. Baby Boomers are currently 51 to 70 years old, peaked at about 58. As the current housing market corrects...watch-out! How will exiting/retiring Boomers influence the outdoor power equipment and engine service business?
54 The biggest worker retirement in the history of the United States is about to happen!
55 Boomer Retirement Are you ready to have up to 25% of top level executives and older staff retire in the next two to three years?
56 Generation X Born 1965 to 1984
57 Attendance Down 10%
58 Gen X Perils Closed maternity wards Crippled the diaper and toy industry Shut down public schools (not colleges) Erased Japanese motorcycle sales Baffled Detroit and Japan auto makers Shrunk U.S. workforce creating immigration issue Tipping point in housing crisis Gutted the middle class and the Republican Party A distributor management shortage? You think!
59 Look for women to lead.
60 The glass ceiling is shattering. Women out number men in college at a 60/40 ratio. They will run things. In the OPEES industry?
61 Women in the Workplace On average women make about 75% of what men make for the same job.
62 17% Latinos
63 The Latino Influence Latinos are spiritual Catholics. Latinos are very family oriented and take responsibility for their elderly. Latinos are aspiring and assimilate into U.S. culture in twenty years. They will buy millions of homes! They will need and use outdoor power equipment and engine service!
64 5% Asian Americans
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66 Asians make up only about 5% of our total population but that will change as Asians begin to flood this continent especially from China. Asians will influence the OPEES industry!
67 13% African American
68 The African American Influence The symbolic impact of the Obama family in the White House has had a profound positive influence on African American culture. As African Americans advance socio-economically so will their positive influence on construction and housing. And OPEES!
69 Did Dr. King ask for a hand-out? No! He asked for a hand up.
70 Bigotry and Economics? Bigotry is an economic enemy. Oppression is very expensive. The United States needs to cultivate as many heavy lifter tax payers as possible especially in the Generation X age range of 31 to 50 years old. How quickly can we advance African American, Latinos and immigrants?
71 So.If you re a bigot, get over it!
72 35% of U.S. Market is Minority!
73
74 According to National Geographic this is what an average American will look like in the year 2050.
75 The Baby-Blenders 2025 to 2044 No more red-heads
76 Will manufacturing return to the United States?
77 China present ±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
78 Four Grandparents, Two Parents, One child
79 China present ±500,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
80 90,000,000 young Chinese men who have no prospect of marrying!
81 China s One Child Only Policy is the biggest demographic, economic and humanitarian blunder in the history of the world!
82 Per Capita Contribution GDP United States $50,000 China $5,000 The United states has not been at China s level of productivity since 1865!
83 ±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
84 ±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
85 ±400,000,000 births prevented by one-child policies
86 A 16 year old Russian male has a 50/50 chance of living to 60.
87 The abortion rate and the birth rate in Russia are equal! Fertility is 1.41
88 Russia s Population In ,000,000 Today 130,000,000 A Net Mortality Country
89 Vladimir Putin A government of censorship, corruption, brutality, oppression and assassination. George F. Will, Washington Post
90 A Russia Public Relations Victory!
91 Ukraine, a public relations nightmare!
92
93 50 million healthy Ukrainians
94 INDIA Billion Population
95 Mumbai, India
96 The United States represents 5% of the world s population, but precipitates 25% of the world s economy!
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99 The United States runs on oil. About 18 million barrels a day We re using theirs up first.
100 Middle Eastern fertility is well above Western averages. Middle Eastern Immigrant s fertility in the European Union is well above native fertility. Over time the Muslim culture will dominate the European Union. Western European culture and Muslim culture are not homogeneous. Western Europeans will leave.
101 Do we have an immigrant problem? No. We are a nation of immigrants!
102 Ellis Island: In 1892 they opened the doors and let the people through!
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105 Cities will become dangerous places, again, as crime increases.
106 Cyber/Robo Cops
107 U.S. Prisons
108 We currently have 2,000,000 men in jail in the United States. About 1,000,000 African Americans, 500,000 Latinos and 500,000 whites
109 There are only about 200,000 women in jail. Why?
110 Marijuana will be legal soon. It will be very heavily taxed. It will be a bigger crop than wheat! It will be a problem for your industry!
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114 Housing s Perfect Storm! The foreclosure/housing issue is correcting, freeing up five years of pent up demand. Baby Boomers will sell their houses, retire and move south. African Americans and Latinos will build and buy houses. Asian and European immigrants will build and buy houses. The huge Generation Y will rent, buy and build. Women will buy and build houses. Everyone will landscape! The U.S. economy is housing! The demand for outdoor power equipment and engine service will spike!
115 Imagine
116 Think Remote Everything
117 Technology is not an option. The Internet of everything!
118 Big Changes Ahead! Medicine-We are going to live a lot longer. Manufacturing-automation and 3D printing. Housing-Small and sustainable. Education-The traditional model is dead. Food consumption will be more nutrition based. The U.S. economy will restore and sore to new heights we can t comprehend!
119 The best days for the United States and the Outdoor Power Equipment and Engine Service industry are ahead of us, not behind us! Believe it!
120 Remember: There are three types of people in the world. Those that can count. And those that can t.
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124 The AGE CURVE How to Profit from the Coming Demographic Storm Kenneth W. Gronbach
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