The before, after and in between of immigration. Criminal interactions of foreign born people in England and Wales.

Transcription

1 The before, fter nd in between of immigrtion. Criminl interctions of foreign born people in Englnd nd Wles. Dr Dinis Igntns University of Huddersfield Kjetn Zielinski Wrsw School of Economics Greg Los University of Kent

2 USA Immigrtion nd Crime Is there link? Self report studies indicte low criminl involvement mongst immigrnts. (Kubrin nd Desmond, 2009; Butcher nd Piehl, 1998) Immigrtion revitlizes the res leding to lower crime rte. (Smpson, 2008; Kubrin, 2012) Violence decreses when migrnt concentrtion increses. (Stowell, 2012; Wdsworth, 2010, Velez, 2009; Mrtinez et l., 2004) Immigrtion bolsters the economy nd lowers crime rtes. (Ousey nd Kubrin, 2009) Europe UK Immigrnts more likely to be rrested nd imprisoned. (Albrecht, 1999; vn Klmthout, et l. 2007; Tonry, 1997) Crime by immigrnts significntly lower in recent yers. (Entorf nd Lrsen, 2004) Immigrnts from similr culture s ntives committing fewer crimes thn other immigrnts. (Alonso-Borego, 2012) Unemployed migrnts commit mjority of crime by immigrnts. (Bircn nd Hooghe, 2011) Asylum seekers commit more property crime, Europen immigrnts commit it less nd hve low unemployment rtes. (Bell, Mchin nd Fsni, 2010; Bell nd Mchin, 2011; Jitmn nd Mchin, 2013)

3 Rtionle of the reserch. 1) Immigrtion nd crime link is inppropritely ssumed to be liner. Concentrtion of immigrtion is very uneven nd so is its impct on crime. 2) Crime rtes t one point in time re not indictive of chnge. Chnge is not indictive of sitution t the time. Very high crime rtes + drop in crime = still high crime rtes. 3) Interctions between immigrnt groups with different origins re neglected. Sole definble immigrnt groups tend to be prevlent in most residentil res wheres multi-culturl res re uncommon. Wht is the reson nd how does crime/victimistion link into this?

4 Prt 1. Where re ll the immigrnts? OR How the reltionship between immigrtion nd crime is by no mens liner.

5 Proportionl distribution of Europen immigrtion nd for respective violent, property nd vehicle crimes for the yer of Proportion of Crime Euro Violent (Euro) Property (Euro) Vehicle (Euro) Are Deciles Proportion of Immigrtion

6 Proportionl distribution of Africn immigrtion nd for respective violent, property nd vehicle crimes for the yer of Proportion of Crime Africn Violent (Africn) Property (Africn) Vehicle (Africn) Are Deciles Proportion of Immigrtion

7 Proportionl distribution of Asin immigrtion nd for respective violent, property nd vehicle crimes for the yer of Proportion of Crime Asin Violent (Asin) Property (Asin) Vehicle (Asin) Are Deciles Proportion of Immigrtion

8 Proportion of victimised in top re deciles by immigrnt continent of birth nd the rest, CSEW Proportion of Victimised Euro Africn Asin Rest - Euro Rest - Africn Rest - Asin 0 Vehicle Property Personl

9 Victimistions per victimised household in top re deciles by immigrnt continent of birth nd the rest, CSEW Victimistions per Victimised Household Euro Rest - Euro Africn Rest - Africn Asin Rest - Asin Vehicle Property Personl

10 Prt 1 - Summry. Immigrtion popultions re highly concentrted. Ares with highest Europen nd Africn immigrnt popultions re somewht lower in rtes of police-recorded crime thn the res with fewer immigrnts. Ares with highest Asin immigrnt popultions hve significntly lower crime/immigrtion rtio thn the res with fewer immigrnts. Increse in crime rtes up until 7th-8th deciles is minor for ll res. CSEW dt shows tht verge victimistion is lower in res with high concentrtion of immigrnts. Linerity

11 Prt 2. Hve crime rtes chnged in res with highest immigrnt concentrtion? OR It is so esy to miss n elephnt in room tht is lredy grey.

12 Sttisticl differences in crime nd selected economic vribles between top decile by immigrtion versus the rest of res in Higher thn the rest. Lower thn the rest. Ares tht hd high immigrtion t this point in time. Ares tht would hve high immigrtion 10 yers lter. Ares tht would hve high immigrtion influx between Euro 2001 Afric 2001 Asin 2001 Euro 2011 Afric 2011 Asin 2011 Euro ( ) Afric ( ) All Crime 0.05 Serious Wounding Other Wounding Hrssment Common Assult Robbery Theft from the Person Criminl Dmge Burglry in Dwelling Other Burglry Theft of Motor Vehicle Theft from Motor Vehicle Asin ( ) Benefit Climnts Qulifictions Level Income Deprived Employment Deprived Employed 0.05 Averge Deprivtion Hourly Py

13 Sttisticl differences in crime nd selected economic vribles between top decile by immigrtion versus the rest of res in Higher thn the rest. Lower thn the rest. Ares tht used to hve high immigrtion in Ares tht hd high immigrtion in t this point in time. Ares tht hd high immigrtion influx between Euro 2001 Afric 2001 Asin 2001 Euro 2011 Afric 2011 Asin 2011 Euro ( ) Afric ( ) All Crime Serious Wounding Other Wounding Hrssment Common Assult Robbery Theft from the Person Criminl Dmge Burglry in Dwelling Other Burglry Theft of Motor Vehicle Theft from Motor Vehicle Asin ( ) Benefit Climnts Qulifictions Level Income Deprived Employment Deprived Employed Averge Deprivtion Hourly Py

14 Sttisticl differences in crime nd economics between top decile by immigrtion versus the chnge in the rest of res between 2001 nd Higher thn the rest. Lower thn the rest. ( ) Ares tht hd high immigrtion in Euro 2001 Afric 2001 Asin 2001 Ares tht hd high immigrtion in Euro 2011 Afric 2011 Asin 2011 Ares tht hd high immigrtion influx between Euro ( ) Afric ( ) All Crime Serious Wounding Other Wounding Hrssment Common Assult Robbery Theft from the Person Criminl Dmge Burglry in Dwelling Other Burglry Theft of Motor Vehicle Theft from Motor Vehicle Benefit Climnts Qulifictions Level Income Deprived Employment Deprived Employed Averge Deprivtion Hourly Py Asin ( )

15 Prt 2 - Summry. In 2001, res where immigrnt influx ws high/would be higher/would chnge the most lredy hd: Higher violent crime rtes Lower property crime rtes Less fortunte economic circumstnces In 2011, res where immigrnt influx ws high since 2001/ws high t the time/hd chnged the most hd: Higher violent crime rtes Lower property crime rtes Less fortunte economic circumstnces Between 2001 nd 2011, res where immigrnt influx ws high since 2001/ws high in 2011/hd chnged the most experienced: Greter drop in violent crimes Somewht greter increse in cr crimes (but not property crimes in generl) A greter improvement in economy Before, After nd In Between

16 Prt 3. Who commits ll the crimes nd where? OR How the reltionships between immigrnt sub groups re essentil in understnding crime.

17 Violent, property nd vehicle crime rtes by immigrtion popultion in None Euro Africn Asin Euro + Africn Euro + Asin Africn + Asin Euro + Africn + Asin Higher thn verge. Lower thn verge Men Stndrd Error N Violent Property Vehicle Violent Property Vehicle Violent Property Vehicle Violent Property Vehicle Violent Property Vehicle Violent Property Vehicle Violent Property Vehicle Violent Property Vehicle

18 Victim immigrtion sttus nd offenders ethnicity (where known) in res with high immigrnt concentrtion versus the rest, CSEW All E&W Euro Africn Asin Immigrnt Victim 9% 9% 9.2% 7.8% White Immigrnt Victim 3.7% 3.2% 3.2% 2.2% Blck Immigrnt Victim 1.8% 1.9% 2% 1.8% Asin Immigrnt Victim 3.6% 4% 4% 3.8% White Offender 88.80% 85.20% 86.5% 87.9% Blck Offender 7.60% 10.40% 9% 6.6% Asin Offender 3.60% 4.30% 4.5% 5.5%

19 Offences committed ginst immigrnts nd non-immigrnts by offenders ethnicity (where known), CSEW White Offender Blck Offender Asin Offender Non Immigrnt Victim 90.30% 6.60% 3.1% Europen Immigrnt Victim 70.70% 22.8% 6.5% Africn Immigrnt Victim 68.70% 25% 6.3% Asin Immigrnt Victim 61.90% 17.5% 20.6%

20 Prt 3 - Summry. Ares with two or more prevlent immigrnt groups hve (by lrge) higher crime rtes thn res with the sme immigrnt groups on their own. Ares with high popultions of Europen nd Asin immigrnts hve the highest crime rtes nd re lest common. Ares with high popultions of Europen nd Africn immigrnts hve the lowest crime rtes nd re most common. Immigrnt victims re spred throughout the res nd re not concentrted in res where immigrtion is prevlent (less likely to be victimised) Offenders from ll ethnicities re spred throughout the res nd re not disproportiontely concentrted where immigrtion is prevlent (less likely to offend). Victim-offender interctions suggest tht offending is within-ctegory rther thn between-ctegory for the UK s whole. But Victim-Offender Interctions

21 Summry of the ides 1) Immigrtion nd crime link is not liner. Ares where immigrtion is most concentrted hve lower crime nd victimistion rtes s opposed to 9 th deciles. 2) Crime rtes t one single point in time re not indictive of chnge. The chnge is not indictive of existing sitution. Ares where immigrtion is most concentrted hve high violent crime rtes nd low property crime rtes, yet violent crime hs dropped in them the most. Economy is improving. 3) Interctions between/within immigrnts re crucil in understnding immigrtion-crime link. Crimes committed ginst immigrnts re disproportiontely committed by offenders from the sme ethnicity (not necessrily immigrnt sttus) throughout the UK. More nlyses re necessry.

22 Thnk you! Dr Dinis Igntns University of Huddersfield Kjetn Zielinski Wrsw School of Economics Greg Los University of Kent