HOW MUCH OF THE DROP IN CRIME CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO CHANGES IN REPEAT VICTIMISATION TRENDS?
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1 HOW MUCH OF THE DROP IN CRIME CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO CHANGES IN REPEAT VICTIMISATION TRENDS? CRIME USERS SURVEY CONFERENCE DAINIS IGNATANS, LLB (Hons.), MA Assistant Lecturer and Doctoral Researcher in Criminology University of Kent Contact Supervisors: Prof Roger Matthews, Prof Chris Hale
2 CORE IDEA
3 THE DROP IN CRIME *Victimisation ratio per households based on British Crime Survey findings
4 THE DROP IN CRIME *Victimisation ratio per persons (taking into account differences in average household size)
5 THE CHANGES IN VICTIMISATION *Mean victimisation incidence in a victimised household
6 THE CHANGES IN VICTIMISATION *Mean victimisation incidence in a household victimised multiple times
7 - Can the changes in crime rates in the last 3 decades be attributed mostly to changes in households victimised multiple times? THE QUESTIONS - How much of the drop in crime can be attributed to the decrease in multiple victimisation incidents?
8 THE ANALYSIS
9 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN VICTIMISATION All Crimes Property Crimes Bike Theft Damage to Vehicle Theft from the Vehicle Theft of Vehicle Burglary Attempted Burglary Break-in with Damage 9-43 Damage to Personal Items Damage to Home 0-59 Theft from Outside Home Theft from Home Crimes in Previous Home Other Theft of Personal Belongings 8-71 Personal Crimes Attempted Theft from the Person Theft from the Person Sexual Offences Violence Threat of Violence 48-48
10 VICTIMISATION SPREAD *Percentage of households reporting one-off victimisation
11 VICTIMISATION SPREAD *Percentage of households reporting multiple victimisation incidents
12 CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO *Cross comparison between percentage change in crime and percentage change in households victimised once between 1982 and 1994
13 CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO *Cross comparison between percentage drop in crime and percentage change in households victimised once between 1994 and 2012
14 CORRELATION BETWEEN THE TWO *Cross comparison between percentage drop in crime and percentage change in households victimised once between 1994 and 2012 (with crimes with lowest share removed)
15 CRIME CONCENTRATION *Crime ratio per households in households victimised once
16 CRIME CONCENTRATION *Crime ratio per households in households victimised multiple times
17 EXTENT OF CONCENTRATION *Cross comparison between percentage drop in crime and percentage change in crime in multiple victimisation households between 1994 and 2012
18 VICTIMISATION REPORTING *Percentage of households reporting being victimised
19 VICTIMISATION SHARE *Percentages of total crime share attributed to each victimisation group
20 VICTIMISATION CHANGES *Percentage change in crimes (year after) in each victimisation group
21 ATTRIBUTION OF THE CHANGES *Attribution of percentage changes (year after) to each victimisation group (using base value of 100%)
22 THE RESULT
23 ATTRIBUTION OF THE CRIME DROP *Amount of changes in crimes (year after) attributed to single and multiple victimisation groups in population
24 --Yes. Can The the changes in crime rates in can the be last 3 decades attributed be mostly attributed to the mostly changes to changes in the in households amount of households victimised multiple victimised times? multiple times. THE FINDINGS -How Nearly much all of of the the drop in in crime in can the be last attributed 30 years has to the happened decrease exclusively in multiple due to the victimisation reduction in multiple incidents? victimisation incidents.
25 THANK YOU! CRIME USERS SURVEY CONFERENCE DAINIS IGNATANS, LLB (Hons.), MA Assistant Lecturer and Doctoral Researcher in Criminology University of Kent Contact Supervisors: Prof Roger Matthews, Prof Chris Hale
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