2016 Journal of Industrial Ecology

Transcription

1 Skudder H., A. Druckman, J. Cole, A. McInnes, I. Brunton-Smith, and G. P. Ansaloni Addressing the carbon-crime blind spot: a carbon footprint approach. Journal of Industrial Ecology. This supporting information includes 7 appendices with details on the monetized economic and social costs of crime, detailed summaries of the carbon footprint of crime and estimates of the rebound effect. The appendices are: Appendix 1: EE-IOA datasets considered for use within study. Appendix 2: Monetised economic and social costs of crime estimates for Appendix 3: Offence mapping from recorded crime categories to offences within the economic and social cost of crime estimates. Appendix 4: Mapping economic and social cost of crime expenditure categories to SIC codes. Appendix 5: Detailed estimates of the carbon footprint per incident. Appendix 6: Summary of the carbon footprint of all crime by offence type. Appendix 7: Details relating to the rebound effect estimates. S-1

2 Appendix 1 Table S1: EE-IOA datasets considered for use within study. Dataset Regions Number of industry Years available sectors for UK Defra 1 - indirect emissions 2 - UK and rest of the from the supply chain (CenSA) world (ROW) EXIOPOL 2 43 countries Eora MRIO database countries worldwide OECD-WTO TiVA initiative 4 57 OECD countries , 2000, 2005, World Input-Output Database (WIOD) and countries worldwide Defra (Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affair) produces indirect emissions from the supply chain emission factors, calculated by the Centre for Sustainability Accounting (CenSA) and are available to view at: 2 Exiopol final product data available at: 3 Eora world multi-region input-output analysis datasets available to download at: 4 The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and World Trade Organisation (OECD-WTO) joint TiVA data are available at: 5 World Input-Output database available at: S-2

3 Defensive Expenditure Insurance Administration Physical and Emotional Impact on Direct Victims Value of Property Stolen Property Damaged/ Destroyed Property Recovered Victim Services Lost Output Health Services Criminal Justice System Total Costs ( ) Appendix 2 Table S2: Monetised economic and social costs of crime estimates for 2011 Costs in anticipation of crime ( ) Costs as a consequence of crime ( ) Costs in response to crime ( ) 2011 prices Offence category Homicide ,097, , , ,965 1,823,157 Serious wounding 1 1 5, ,414 1,635 17,401 26,268 Other wounding 1 1 5, ,414 1,635 1,186 10,053 Sexual offences , ,374 1,111 4,001 39,525 Common assault - - 1, ,797 Robbery , , ,155 9,022 Burglary in a dwelling , ,379 4,003 Theft-not vehicle Theft of vehicle ,020 2, ,069 Theft from vehicle ,057 Attempted vehicle theft Criminal damage ,081 Burglary-not in a dwelling , ,619 4,700 Commercial robbery , , ,356 9,598 Commercial theft of vehicle 1, ,061 5, , ,243 Commercial- theft from a vehicle ,276 Shoplifting Commercial criminal damage , ,886 S-3

4 Police activity Prosecution Magistrates Court Crown Court Jury Service Legal Aid Non Legal Aid Defence Probation Service Prison Service Other CJS Costs CJS Over-head Criminal Injuries Compensation Table S3: Breakdown of the Criminal Justice System (CJS) costs of crime for 2011 Costs in response to crime ( ) 2011 prices Total CJS costs Offence category Homicide 18,086 1, , ,541 1,793 1, ,839 4,333 1, ,965 Serious wounding 7, , ,313 1, ,401 Other wounding ,186 Sexual offences 1, ,001 Common assault Robbery 1, , ,155 Burglary in a dwelling ,379 Theft-not vehicle Theft of vehicle Theft from vehicle Attempted vehicle theft Criminal damage Burglary-not in a dwelling ,619 Commercial robbery 1, , ,356 Commercial theft of vehicle Commercial- theft from a vehicle Shoplifting Commercial Commercial- Criminal damage S-4

5 Appendix 3 Table S4: Offence mapping from recorded crime categories (Source: Home Office, 2012) to offences within the economic and social cost of crime estimates (Source: Home Office, 2011). Offence Categories used within study Offences included from police recorded crime statistics (ONS) Exclusions Homicide Serious Wounding Other Wounding Sexual Offences Common Assault Robbery Burglary in a Dwelling Homicide (collective term for murder, manslaughter and infanticide) Violence against the person - with injury (total) Violence against the person - without injury (total) and actual bodily harm (ABH) Sexual Offences (total) Assault without injury Robbery of personal property Burglary in a dwelling (total) Homicide and ABH Assault Theft - Not Vehicle Other theft (total) Shoplifting Theft of Vehicle Theft From Vehicle Attempted Vehicle Theft Criminal Damage Burglary - Not in a Dwelling Commercial - Robbery Commercial - Theft of Vehicle Commercial - Theft From Vehicle Shoplifting Commercial - Criminal Damage Theft or unauthorised taking of vehicle and Aggravated vehicle taking Theft from a vehicle Interfering with a vehicle Criminal damage (total) Burglary not in a dwelling (total) Robbery of business property CVS estimate* CVS estimate* Shoplifting Criminal damage to buildings other than a dwelling Offences not included in estimate Fraud and Forgery (total) Drug offences (total) Other miscellaneous offences (total) * Commercial Victimisation Survey 2012, best estimate available. The CVS represents 4 industrial sectors (manufacturing, retail, transportation and accommodation) and details crime recorded by businesses for the year 2011/12 (See Table T.1 - Home Office, 2013). S-5

6 N/A N/A N/A N/A Defensive Expenditure Insurance Administration Physical and Emotional Impact on direct victims Value of Property Stolen Property damaged or destroyed Property Recovered Victim Services Lost Output Health Services Police Activity Prosecution Magistrates Court Crown Court Jury Service Legal Aid Non Legal Aid Defence Probation Service Prison Service Other CJS costs CJS Overhead Criminal Injuries comp. Appendix 4 Table S5: Mapping economic and social cost of crime expenditure categories to SIC codes (EE-IOA emissions factor categories) Expenditure Category Offence Homicide Serious Wounding Other Wounding Sexual Offences Common Assault Robbery Burglary in a Dwelling Theft - Not Vehicle Theft of Vehicle Theft From Vehicle Attempted Vehicle Theft Criminal Damage Burglary - Not in a Dwelling Commercial - Robbery Commercial - Theft of Vehicle Commercial - Theft From Vehicle Commercial - Attempted Vehicle Theft Shoplifting Commercial - Criminal Damage Multipliers key and justification Colour SIC code Brief description Supply Chain Emissions Factor 2011 (kg CO2-eq / )* 26 Computer, electronic and optical products Security and investigation services Insurance, reinsurance and pension funding services, except compulsory social security & Pensions Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers Services to buildings and landscape Social Care services Human health services Public administration and defence services; compulsory social security services Legal services Accommodation services 0.45 (*Source: Defra, Indirect emissions from the supply chain, 2014) Justification of selection Includes consumer electronics which defensive products (immobilizers, CCTV, burglary alarms etc are likely to be, as well as those products that are likely to be stolen (laptops, mobile phones) Defensive spending associated with personal offences (violent crimes) is more likely to be linked to security services rather than electronic products Includes life and non life insurance taken out in anticipation of personal and property related crimes. Includes manufacture of the vehicle, parts and electronic equipment within the vehicle to replace stolen/damaged vehicles and their parts Includes specialised cleaning service and landscape services which could be required following criminal damage Victim support includes counselling, peer support and information provision, a similar service to those of social care. Includes hospital activities which are most likely to be used if a crime occurs Includes justice and judicial activities, public order and safety and general public administration. Solicitors, barristers and other legal services used for legal aid and non legal aid defence Includes hotels and similar short stay accommodation, which is similar in nature to prisons S-6

7 Defensive Expenditure Insurance Administration Property Stolen Property damaged / destroyed Property Recovered Victim Services Heath Services Police activity Prosecution Magistrates court Crown court Jury service Legal aid Non legal aid defence Probation service Prison service Other CJS costs Appendix 5 Table S6: Estimated carbon footprint per incident Anticipation of Crime Carbon footprint per incident (kg CO 2-eq) Consequences of crime Criminal Justice System Total Offence Homicide , ,208 1,162 71,172 Serious Wounding , , ,075 Other Wounding Sexual Offences ,380 Common Assault Robbery ,149 Burglary in a Dwelling ,110 Theft - Not Vehicle Theft of Vehicle , ,055 Theft From Vehicle Attempted Vehicle Theft Criminal Damage Burglary Not in a Dwelling ,303 Commercial Robbery ,222 Commercial- Theft of Vehicle , ,152 Commercial Theft From Vehicle Shoplifting Commercial - Criminal Damage denotes value <1, - denotes no value S-7

8 Appendix 6 Table S7: Summary of the carbon footprint of all crime, both recorded and unrecorded totals, by offence type. Offence category Carbon Footprint, CO 2-eq, 2011 (number of offences 2011/12) Police recorded crime Unrecorded crime - estimated Total Crime Homicide 39,299 (550) - (0) 39,299 Serious Wounding 186,173 (36,679) 7,527 (18,340) 193,700 Other Wounding 374,362 (522,773) 107,283 (261,387) 481,645 Sexual Offences 74,176 (53,665) 192,127 (676,179) 266,303 Common Assault 22,929 (202,513) 54,900 (1,397,340) 77,829 Robbery 78,187 (67,920) 54,561 (258,096) 132,748 Burglary in a Dwelling 272,552 (245,317) 309,159 (441,571) 581,711 Theft - Not Vehicle 156,377 (796,795) 299,721 (2,868,462) 456,098 Theft of Vehicle 189,152 (92,057) 27,617 (27,617) 243,854 Theft From Vehicle 83,183 (300,377) 196,202 (750,943) 279,385 Attempted Vehicle Theft* 3,666 (25,010) 3,924 (32,513) 7,590 Criminal Damage 82,805 (563,892) 299,455 (2,763,071) 382,261 Burglary - Not in a Dwelling 333,541 (255,736) 798,718 (230,162) 521,872 Commercial - Robbery 8,291 (6,770) 1,370 (25,726) 14,002 Commercial - Theft of Vehicle 29,068 (7,000*) 8,406 (2,100) 37,474 Commercial-Theft From Vehicle 19,719 (59,000*) 46,511 (147,500) 66,231 Shoplifting 15,250 (308,322) 199,063 (4,655,662) 214,313 Commercial - Criminal Damage 13,376 (67,329) 43,395 (4,329,912) 56,771 TOTAL 1,979,831 (3,611,705) 2,065,859 (14,886,579) 4,045,690 *best estimate available from commercial victimisation survey. Number of offences (police recorded or estimated unrecorded) included within parentheses. S-8

9 Appendix 7 In order to answer the question does crime really cost carbon? we need to take the rebound effect into account. This is, of course, a highly challenging task and there is no right or wrong answer. An estimation of this kind involves many assumptions, and one way of doing it is to assess the carbon emissions associated with a drop in a certain type of crime. We thus present the emissions associated with a hypothetical 5% drop in the number of domestic burglaries. This was chosen as it is the criminal offence which contributes most to the overall footprint, and a drop of 5% was recorded between 2010 and 2011 and so is realistic to analyse. In order to estimate the impact of the rebound effect, we need to consider how public and private money (final demand) currently associated with domestic burglary offences, would be spent if the number of these offences were to decline by 5%. In order to get a very rough assessment and avoid using untestable assumptions, following Druckman et al (2011), we estimate the lower, medium and upper bound of carbon emissions in this counterfactual scenario. In this calculation we have just two types of expenditure: household expenditure and central government expenditure. To estimate the lower bound we allocate all expenditure to the Standard Industrial Code (SIC) sector with the lowest EE-IOA derived multiplier, and similarly, to estimate the higher bound we allocate all expenditure to the SIC sector with the highest EE-IOA derived multiplier. We also present a 'medium' estimate, which is the most likely scenario. To do this we apportion expenditure according to average UK household consumption and central Government expenditure for the year 2011, using data from ONS Supply and Use Tables (ONS, 2013c). The major limitation of this approach is that estimates depend on the level of disaggregation of the EE-IOA dataset used (in this case 106 sectors); a dataset with higher disaggregation is likely to give a wider range of results. The results of our estimates are shown in Table S8. S-9

10 Table S8: Rough estimate of the counterfactual footprint of a 5% drop in domestic burglary. Actor concerned i Public ii and Victims of crime Central Government Spend category Anticipation of crime and property stolen or damaged Health services, police, legal, probation, courts and prisons Domestic burglary Associated spend ( billion) Total 1.53 iii 580 Carbon Footprint Assumption and selection of new emission factor Money saved on anticipation of crime and replacing stolen or damaged property spent on the lowest household carbon intensive sector in the economy (services of households as employers - SIC 87) Money saved on public services associated with crime (prisons, police, health etc.), spent on the lowest carbon intensive public service (education services - SIC 85) 5% less domestic burglary Low Estimate Medium Estimate High estimate New footprint Difference Assumption and selection of new emission factor Money saved on anticipation of crime and replacing stolen or damaged property spent proportionally on the average consumption pattern of UK households (multiple factors) Money saved on public services associated with crime (prisons, police, health etc.), spent proportionally between the average UK central government expenditure (multiple factors) New Footprint Difference Assumption and selection of new emission factor Money saved on anticipation of crime and replacing stolen or damaged property spent on the highest household carbon intensive sector of the economy (electricity transmission and distribution - SIC 35) Money saved on public services associated with crime (prisons, police, health etc.), spent on the highest carbon intensive public service (social care services SIC 87-88) New Footprint Difference Total Total Total % Original footprint 97% -3% % Original footprint 102% +2% % Original footprint 123% +23% i The actions of the offender if they cease to commit crime are not estimated as the offenders expenditure (monetised benefits of crime) is not included within the cost of crime estimates. ii Specifically those who take actions in anticipation of crime, such as buying insurance against theft or protecting their property with security measures. iii Total expenditure omits several cost categories due to ambiguities as detailed within this study s methodology sections. These include lost output and physical and emotional direct impact of crime and it is possible that emissions will arise in the absence of crime related to these avoided activities, such as emissions associated with the remaining years of a person who has avoided an early death. However, these emissions are likewise omitted from this counterfactual estimate due to these ambiguities. S-10

11 References Defra Table 13 - Indirect emissions from the supply chain. London: Defra. Accessed July Druckman, A., M. Chitnis, S. Sorrell and T. Jackson Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households. Energy Policy 39: Home Office Revisions made to the multipliers and unit costs of crime used in the Integrated Offender Management Value for Money Toolkit. Accessed August Home Office Crimes Detected in England and Wales 2011 to Accessed March Home Office Crimes against businesses: Detailed findings from the 2012 Commercial Victimisation Survey pdf. Accessed January ONS. 2013c. Supply and Use Tables 2013 Edition. Accessed 8 th December S-11