Climate-Induced Migration in Bangladesh: Assessing the Current Situation, Gap of Government Responses and Way forward with Policy Implications

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1 Climate-Induced Migration in Bangladesh: Assessing the Current Situation, Gap of Government Responses and Way forward with Policy Implications Khalid Md. Bahauddin, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR), China Nayma Iftakhar, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, South Korea Md. Hanif Uddin, North South University, Bangladesh Introduction The impact of climate change induced migration (CCM) on sustainable development and achieving of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is still an emerging and relatively unexplored issue. In the recent years, migration increase due to natural disasters has received a lot of attention both from the media and the political world. In the short-term, the main challenge related to displacement caused by natural disasters is humanitarian; in the long-term, policy makers have to guarantee a sustainable future to the populations affected (Banerjee, S, 2014). At the same time, millions of people are displaced by slow-onset environmental degradation. The decision to migrate in response to climate change is very complex and studying it from a sustainable development perspective helps understand the way in which environmental push factors interact with other economic, social and political variables (Afsar, R, 2010). This paper explores the situation and processes of climate change induced migration and focuses on the challenges of human security and sustainable development in Bangladesh. State of Climate Change Induced Migration Bangladesh is the world s seventh most populous nation with 160 million people within 143,998 km2; out of that 160 million, 30% are living in urban areas (Begum, A. 2015). Internal migration is one of the key drivers of rapid urbanization in Bangladesh.The urban population growth rate in Bangladesh is approximately 3.5%. The urban growth rateis1.3% and the determinant 2.2% is influenced by internal, one of the key drivers of rapid urbanization in Bangladesh. During the last decade climate change has emerged as an environmental push factor which has been credited with amplifying the migration rate. The total ultra-poor in urban areas is about 14.6 million, according to the World Bank, who are earning less than US$1 per day (ADB, 2012). Furthermore about 25% of these hardcore poor have migrated from rural areas and they have done so because of natural calamities and changes in the local physical environment, for example loss of farm land, increasing salinity, loss of welling, and no livelihood options (Black, R. 2010). According to the Department of International Development (DFID), migration is most prominent in Dhaka, thecapital of Bangladesh. The DFID annual report estimates that around 55% and 32% of Dhaka s population are absolute(actual number of people, the population has increased and decreased by in a certain period of time)and ultra-poor (the ultra-poor are as those living on $1.25 per day or less. They have very limited physical, human, and financial assets and social networks to draw on to mobilize and leverage household and community resources or external assistance.) respectively (Ahmed, 2010). Within the last 30 years Bangladesh has been hit by more than 100 cyclones, 60 flash floods and other such disasters like epidemics, drought, and heat waves. The coastal areas of Bangladesh are the home to almost 50 million people (1/3 of the total population) who are highly exposed to these natural calamities. For example around 9.2 million people from the south coast region of Bangladesh were affected by storm surge and tropical cyclones in Between 1984 and 2007, 19.3 million people throughout the Bangladesh were impacted by floods (Alam, 2011). The victims of natural disasters are often displaced from their secure homes; some are displaced for a short time eventually and subsequently returningto restart lives at the point of origin while others permanently migrate far and wide. According to the projected population census of 2001, by 2010 the rural vsurban population was to be roughly equal and by the end of 2020 the 1

2 urban population will be double that of rural areas (CDKN, 2011). Although the growth rate has come down due to some positive economic growth in selected part of the country, natural growth and traditional rural-urban migration cannot be the sole reasons for such a dramatic urban influx. Itis clear that external forces influence the population distribution and challenge the urban system in Bangladesh. Between 1980 and 2010 natural disasters have acted as direct push factors for internal migration to such an extent that it has altered the urbanization pattern and become a challenge for the urban planning system (Displacement Solutions, 2012). It isevident that over the last decade the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, especially cyclones and floods, have increased while the distribution of population between rural and urban areas has also changed (Hossain, 2009). Realizing the Climate Change Induced Migration Process This research study has been conducted throughout two districts i.e. Khulna and Satkhirain Bangladesh which are particularly prone to the impacts of climate change. Based on the collected data, it is found that internal migration is steadilyrising and there is a strong linkage between the sudden onset of disasters such as cyclones or tidal surges, and increasing number of migration. This study revealed that the displaced people initially try to relocate themselves within their niche or in neighbouring villages, and then gradually shift to the nearest urban centers, larger cities and finally to the capital. Most of them end up settling in slums or squatter settlements where there is a dearth of basic services.their numbershave been constantly increasing; by 2007 the growth rate was 4% per year. In 2007,displaced people represented 86% of the overall urban population (UN-HABITAT 2007). Heavy monsoonal rains in 2007 affected over 10 million people spreading over 39 districts out of total 64 districts, driving a reported 3,000 migrants a day to Dhaka due to inadequate relief and lack of income (IRIN 1997). However, where aid has been effectively distributed and food markets supported for example during the 2004 tornado and 1998 floods, migration has been minimal. From 1991 to 2002, around226,000 persons migrated overseas in search of employment. Most of who originally came from disaster prone areas of Bangladesh (Del Ninno et al. 2001). Seasonal migration has been a recognized trend in Bangladesh for decades, whereby people temporally migrate during the agricultural lean season and return to their homes at the conclusion of the season. This research found that seasonal migration has morphed permanent migration in recent times. A number of push factors have contributed to this permanent migration such as damage to infrastructure after a sudden disaster, lack of livelihood options and a decline in alternative coping mechanisms in the affected areas. Participants of focus group discussions stated that permanent migration tends to be seen as the only solution in such a situation. This research found that climate induced migration takes place after major extreme climatic events. The time span between extreme climatic events and actual migration differs from case to case. However, this study revealed three key situations. In the first instance, some of the victims migrate within 3 to 15 days following the onset of the extreme climatic events. During and immediately after such events, life comes to a standstill and the migrant families wait for a relatively better situation when the families can dispose of the remaining assets and are able to save enough money to cover travelling expenses. The families then set off for the receiving area. In this study, it has identified 115 families in such a situation which correspond to 40 percent of the total number of families questioned. The second situation involves families who have some assets at their disposal who try their best to restore their normal life after the event. Failing to be able to cope with their situation, the family decides to migrate. These families are forced to a distress sell their remaining assets to be able to pay the travel expenses to the receiving areas. This study has identified 108 families in such situation which corresponds to 29 percent of questioned families. The third situations identified are families who lose income and assets due to one or more natural calamities. This combined with social and economic constraints means that these families borrow money from more than one source to restore normal life. When these families cannot repay their loans, they leave for a new place. 72 such cases were identified in this study which corresponds to 19 percent of the total families addressed under the survey. The research has also found the increasing salinity in the coastal region districts. Due to the climate change and recession of glaciers in the mountain regions the fresh water discharge in cross boarding rivers of Bangladesh has decreased alarmingly in the last decade. As a result the fishermen depending on rivers have no livelihood now leading to migrate to the urban areas. The impact is the intrusion of salty water percolating to new farmlands due to lack of 2

3 fresh water. Although many of the farmlands are developed for shrimp cultivation but they couldn t accommodate the total displaced. Climate Induced Migration in the Context of Human Security and Sustainable Development The displaced populations during natural calamities who are unable to return to their dwellings or unable to resume their traditional livelihoods are usually forced to head towards the urban centers in search of employment and a better life. Such rural- urban migrants end up in the big urban slums and ghettos, earning the bare minimum in the informalsector. Generally, these people face insecurity of land tenure and shelter, with women being especially vulnerable to exploitation and abusive practices. The conditions under which most of the rural-urban migrants live violate their most basic human rights including lack of shelter, lack of secure tenure, and lack of access to basic services such as clean drinking water, healthcare and education (Akter, 2009). Rapid and unplanned urbanization has implications for environmental migrants, the urban poor and the society at large. There are serious and far reaching human security impacts arising from such conditions. Firstly, environmental and other rural urban migrants tend to live in overcrowded slums, and consequently end up contributing to the environmental degradation of the surrounding area (Huq, 2001). Absence of proper drainage and garbage disposal systems also compounds the effects. Secondly, competition is exacerbated over already scarce basic resources such as clean water, electricity, etc. This results in increased social tension within both slum population and the urban residents at large. This may lead to outbreaks of conflict (Huq, 2003). Thirdly, the arrival of displaced persons in large numbers jeopardizes a city's ability to plan for the future, as overcrowding and overuse of existing amenities and services disrupts urban planning. Finally, overcrowding and overpopulation of urban centers posesserious risk in wake of disasters such as floods and earthquakes as well a public health challenge. Given the current state of Bangladesh's cities, a mass exodus of environmental migrants from rural areas would no doubt be a cause for alarm (Rahman, 2007). Assessing the Gap of Existing Government Responses In 2005, Bangladesh completed and published its National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Forests. The preparation process was guided by a Project Steering Committee headed by the Ministry of Environment and Forests and members from other key ministries, department and agencies including Ministry of Finance and Planning ( Alam et al., 2011 ). A wide variety of stakeholders were consulted in the development of the NAPA for Bangladesh, including policy makers of Government, local representatives of the Government...scientific community members of the various research institutes, researchers, academicians, teachers...lawyers, doctors, ethnic groups, media, NGO and CBO representatives and indigenous women contributed to the development of the NAPA for Bangladesh. The 2005 NAPA recognizes that Bangladesh will be one of the most adversely affected countries due to climate change especially because of Bangladesh s low economic strength, inadequate infrastructure, low level of social development, lack of institutional capacity and a higher dependency on the natural resource base (ADB, 2012). The 2005 NAPA identified many adverse climatic impacts of climate change, many of which have clear links with climate displacement. The NAPA further identified that some of the effects of climate change have links with migration; however, these links were not expressed in concrete terms. For example, the report stated that the long term consequences of the project to promote adaptation to coastal crop agriculture to combat salinisation was that the affected community would not migrate to cities for job and livelihood and that the social consequences of mass scale migration to cities would to some extent be halted. The document also stated that a potential long term consequence of the adaptation to agriculture systems in areas prone to enhanced flash flooding project would be that people might get a means to continue with farming, instead of migrating to cities after the flood. However, the NAPA did not articulate any concrete links between climate change and displacement. 3

4 However, the 2005 NAPA did not prescribe any adaptation programmes or policies specifically related to the issue of climate displacement. In not identifying displacement as an adverse effect of climate change, the document unfortunately did not even begin the process of developing rights-based solutions for the millions of current and future climate displaced persons across Bangladesh. In September 2008, the Government of Bangladesh published the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP). Following the change of Government in the December 2008 national elections, the 2008 BCCSAP was updated and revised to reflect the new Government s priorities for future economic, human and social development in the country. As with the 2008 document, the 2009 BCCSAP is a 10 year programme ( ) designed to build the capacity and reliance of the country to climate change. The 2009 BCCSAP recognizes that Bangladesh is one of the most climate vulnerable countries on earth and will become even more so as a result of climate change (CDKN, 2011). The BCCSAP highlights the risk of many of the effects of climate change that have led to displacement, including: floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges and droughts. Importantly and in contrast with the 2005 NAPA, the 2009 BCCSAP draws direct links between climate change and displacement in Bangladesh. The BCCSAP states that increased river bank erosion and saline water intrusion in coastal areas are likely to displace hundreds of thousands of people and that if sea level rise is higher than currently expected and coastal polders are not strengthened and/or new ones built, six to eight million people could be displaced by 2050 and would have to be resettled. Specifically, the BCCSAP states that it is now evident that population in many parts of the country will be so adversely affected [by climate change] that they will have to move out The process of migration of climate changeaffected people, both inside and outside the country, need[s] to be monitored closely and adequate institutional support should be provided for their proper resettlement. However, despite drawing these direct links, the document does not accurately portray the full extent of climate displacement in Bangladesh. First, climate displacement in the BCCSAP is characterized as a potential future event, however, as noted by this report, climate displacement is already occurring in Bangladesh. Secondly, the BCCSAP suggests that increased river bank erosion and saline water intrusion in coastal areas are likely to displace hundreds of thousands of people ; however, surveys undertaken by the Association of Climate Refugees suggest that this number is likely to be more accurately in the millions of people displaced, rather than the hundreds of thousands. Thirdly, the BCCSAP suggests that six to eight million people could be displaced if sea level rise is higher than currently expected ; again, sea level is already leading to displacement from coastal areas in Bangladesh. Perhaps more critical than the mischaracterization of the seriousness and urgency of climate displacement in Bangladesh, is that the BCCSAP itself does not propose any policies, programmes or actions designed to address climate displacement. The document explicitly states that six to eight million people could be displaced by sea level rise and that they would have to be resettled ; however, the BCCSAP does not propose any policies or strategies for these millions of people, let alone any rights-based housing, land and property solutions for these affected communities. Instead the BCCSAP merely proposes that the process of migration of climate-change-affected people needs to be monitored closely and that adequate institutional support should be provided for their proper resettlement. There is no indication of where or how this institutional support will be provided. The BCCSAP does however, importantly, highlight that the role of monitoring climate displacement and ensuring institutional support for proper resettlement lies with the Ministry of Environment and Forests, the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperative. It is imperative that these Ministries develop transparent, effective climate displacement monitoring processes, and to begin now to design and implement durable and effective resettlement and relocation policies and programmes for climate displacement affected communities. Importantly, the BCCSAP highlights that climate change is likely to impact most severely on the poorest and most vulnerable in society...[and that] every effort will be made to ensure that they are protected and that all programmes focus on the needs of this group for food security, safe housing, employment and access to basic services, including health. This statement acknowledges the increased vulnerability of the poorest in society to the effects of climate change as well as the need to ensure safe housing as part of the Government s adaptation strategy. Unfortunately, however, the BCCSAP does not propose any specific projects or policies as to how exactly the Government will ensure safe housing for the most vulnerable members of society. 4

5 Way forward with Policy Implications Migration in Bangladesh remains a hit and miss strategy for households with little or no alternative (Siddiqui, T, 2013). For internal migration to become a radical adaptation strategy, policy changes are needed. This study suggests: Despite the reality of climate induced migration in Bangladesh, the issue is not yet properly addressed by national policies. This lack is most obvious in the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) and the National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA). The BCCSAP was reviewed and revised in 2009 but climate refugees were not properly addressed. Therefore, there is a need to lobby and advocacy to include climate migration into both the BCCSAP and NAPA. There is a need for the development of structures and other adaptation measures against natural calamities to reduce the need for migration. Coping strategies to face abrupt climate change should be strengthened in a variety of ways i.e training and awareness, better education, diversification of livelihood options, communityled natural resource management, and effective disaster risk management that can reduce vulnerability and increase the ability to manage climate change processes. By highlighting some important factors contributing to migration at the local level, this study gives valuable advice that can serve as a guideline and should be adapted to the local context. Take a rights-based approach to empower migrants and families left behind. The government could support this process by recognising how migration will fit into future climate change scenarios. Use financial streams such as the Municipal Development Fund to develop low-cost, disaster-resilient infrastructure. Rapid industrialization with proper urban planning in the small towns will help to absorb more migrants from the coastal areas. Enforcement mechanism of housing bye-laws needs to be improved in the urban areas to reduce vulnerable housing. Develop peri-urban areas with improved transportation for migrant populations. Gurgaon, a satellite town outside Delhi in India that houses migrant workers, could be a model. This policy would ease pressure on slums and squatter settlements, as well as on amenities like sanitation. Create urban hubs far away from the capital city and encourage settlement in growth areas to help absorb migrantsand reduce the pressure in Dhaka. Scale-up construction of infrastructure such as roads, bridges and culverts to complement the ongoing projects to build growth centres managed by the Local Government Engineering Department. View urbanisation as an opportunity for enhanced urban planning rather than a threat, while considering land-use patterns and potential conflicts in the planning process. Government projects for the landless, such as the Climate Victims Rehabilitation Project ( Gucchagram ) can help frame migration in a better light to promote livelihood strategies of the poor. For those people who have no other option than migration due to climate change, the government needs to take the necessary action to support the relocation of climate refugees through different development policies in Bangladesh. This could include prioritizing climate refugees in Khas land distribution and the affected people also need to be incorporated in social safety net programs. Foster greater understanding among scientists and policymakers on adaptation, resilience, capacity building and disaster risk reduction, especially in climate hotspots and vulnerable areas. Pursue more rigorous research on migration, displacement and movements of people internally and internationally. Reference 5

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