Polling Wisdom on the Issue of Immigration. Ed Goeas, CEO and President of The Tarrance Group David Mermin, Partner at Lake Research Partners

Transcription

1 Polling Wisdom on the Issue of Immigration Presented by: Ed Goeas, CEO and President of The Tarrance Group David Mermin, Partner at Lake Research Partners

2 Concerns about immigration are growing George Washington University Battleground N=1020 likely voters Feb , 2006 Only 4% volunteer immigration as most important problem Winston Group N=1000 registered voters Mar. 4-5, 2006 Only 4% select immigration as most important Congressional vote issue AP/IPSOS Public Affairs N=1003 adults Apr. 3-5, % name immigration as most important issue facing US Gallup N=1005 adults Apr , % name immigration as most important problem

3 When prompted, there is consensus that immigration is a major problem Pew Research Center N=1502 adults Feb. 8-Mar. 7, % believe immigration is a very big problem Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners N=1010 likely voters Mar , % believe immigration system is broken and needs to be fixed Gallup/USA Today N=1004 adults Apr. 7-9, % believe illegal immigration is out of control Gallup/USA Today N=1004 adults Apr. 7-9, % believe it is extremely or very important to develop a plan to deal with illegal immigrants already living in US.

4 Strong desire to end the flow of illegal immigration Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners N=803 likely voters Mar , % support tougher penalties for violators of immigration laws Time/SRBI N=1002 adults Jan , % believe US is not doing enough to stop illegal immigration Gallup N=1004 adults Apr. 7-9, % believe it is extremely or very important for the US gov t. to take steps to halt the flow of illegal immigration

5 However, strong belief it is not possible to deport all illegal immigrants Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners N=1010 likely voters Mar , % believe it deporting all 11 million illegal immigrants is unrealistic

6 Strong support for comprehensive approach to immigration reform Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners N=803 likely voters Mar , % support a comprehensive approach that includes registration, temporary worker program, multi-year citizenship program, no preferential treatment, tougher penalties, and family reunification

7 Support for this proposal crosses party lines 100% 80% 70% 78% Favor Oppose Unsure 77% 60% 40% 20% 0% 25% 20% 16% 7% 5% 2% Democrats Republicans Independents

8 And geographic lines 100% 80% 77% 79% Favor Oppose Unsure 72% 60% 40% 20% 0% 25% 18% 17% 5% 3% 3% Red States Blue States Purple States

9 And racial lines 100% 80% 78% 67% Favor Oppose Unsure 70% 60% 40% 20% 0% 31% 18% 17%13% 4% 3% White Black Hispanic/Latino

10 This strong support for comprehensive approach is seen in other polling Time/SRBI N=1004 adults Mar , % select a plan that allows illegal immigrants to work and become citizen if they register and enter a six year assimilation program Gallup/USA Today N=1004 adults Apr. 7-9, % believe US gov t. should deal with illegal immigrants to remain in the US and become citizens if they met certain requirements ABC News/Washington Post N=1027 adults Apr. 6-9, % select a plan that allows illegal immigrants to become a citizen if they met certain conditions

11 This strong support for comprehensive approach is seen in other polling (cont.) LA Times/Bloomberg N=1357 adults Apr. 8-12, % select an approach to immigration laws that includes both tougher enforcement and a guest worker program NBC News/Wall Street Journal N=1109 adults April 21-24, % select allowing illegal immigrants to stay in America of they pass a security check, meet certain conditions, and pay taxes.

12 All elements of comprehensive reform have strong support Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners Poll of N=803 likely voters conducted March 20-22, 2005 finds support at: 80% for allowing undocumented workers to register 65% for temporary worker program 63% for multi-year process for legal residency/citizenship 62% for no preferential treatment for current illegal immigrants 84% for tougher penalties for immigration law violators 67% for family reunification Time/SRBI Poll of N=1004 adults conducted March 29-30, 2006 finds support at: 79% for allowing illegal immigrants to register as guest workers 72% for granting temporary work visas to seasonal/temporary workers 71% for major penalties for employers who hire illegal immigrants 78% for allowing illegal immigrants to earn US citizen if they learn English, have a job, and pay taxes

13 Once the premise of border security and stronger enforcement is met, strong support for an earned legalization guest worker program Tarrance Group/Lake Research Partners N=1010 registered likely voters Mar , 2006 In an A vs. B matchup, 71% support a guest worker plan in which one could earn citizenship through working, paying taxes, and learning English