Brexit and Beyond. From Divided Britain to One Nation?

Transcription

1 Brexit and Beyond From Divided Britain to One Nation?

2 Methodology: what we did Qualitative phase: four focus groups Harlow, Essex Women aged All self-define as working class C2/D A mix of Leave and Remain Voters Leamington Spa, Warwickshire Women aged All self-define as middle class B/C1 A mix of Leave and Remain Voters Men aged All self-define as working class C2/D A mix of Leave and Remain Voters Men aged All self-define as middle class B/C1 A mix of Leave and Remain Voters Quantitative phase: nationally representative survey Online survey of 2,053 British adults weighted to be nationally representative

3 Key take-outs 1 2 Post EU Referendum, Britain is divided a nation of people who describe themselves as haves and have nots' In our poll 44% describe themselves as haves and 56% as have nots Have nots were much more likely to vote Brexit The public s biggest priorities post-brexit are focused on the NHS and immigration They also believe politicians should be focused on post Brexit economy/trade, support for working families, new homes, and bringing Britain back together 3For most, the jury is out on Theresa May Though many see reason to feel cautiously positive describing her as a steady hand and a change from Eton-dominated politics Others are impatient for change and growing concerned that May is slow to take action

4 Where people are starting from

5 The public finds it increasingly difficult to talk about one Britain the word that they most associate is divided I think the country s not broken but fractured after the referendum as well, you were labelled as either racist or unpatriotic depending on which side you were. Harlow, Male Divided the 52% and 48%, the country is very much unsure what to do. I voted to stay, and I m appalled that we are going to leave the EU, I m appalled that some of the people that voted won t even be here. And I think it s the worst decisions we ve made in 50 years. Leamington Spa, Male I love the idea of diversity in Britain and I actually embrace that but I feel that these days there s quite an undercurrent of xenophobia, and that makes me feel that Britain is broken. An undercurrent of intolerance. Leamington Spa, Female

6 Most of all, Britain is seen as divided between haves and have nots Have nots describe: A powerful sense of injustice about their situation in life The feeling that systems are in place which work in favour of elites and against their best interests Haves describe: Awareness of different levels of wealth and success in the UK And a growing contingent of people who feel left behind and disenchanted Themselves as different to that group - and are grateful that that s the case We as a country have created a society of levels. And this won t change, because politicians, most politicians are millionaires. So how are they representative of us? When they re making laws. The rich people could make change but won t because the system works for them Harlow, Male My family come from Stoke on Trent, and it s a really impoverished city. Their outlook on the EU was so different to my friends here, and in London, and these are my cousins, the same family, age. It s Cities vs Rural, but also cities with outdated industries that have no regeneration. My cousin by the time she was 26 had been made redundant 4 times, in an industry our family had worked in for generations. It s so different to my life. Leamington Spa, Female

7 The British public is more likely to identify with the have not than the have category Have not 56% Have 44% Q. People often talk about our divided society nowadays and how Britain is now a nation of Haves and the "Have nots". Which group do you feel best describes you? Base: Representative sample of the British public excluding those who say don t know (n=1,384)

8 But within this there are significant differences in terms of age, geography and socioeconomic grade SEX Men and women are more or less equally likely to feel disenchanted GEOG- RAPHY There is a clear North/South divide most strikingly in the NE versus SE 55% 45% 57% 43% Have Have not 77% 46% of people living in the North East identify as a have not of people living in the South East identify as a have not AGE Disenchantment increases with age up until pension age SEG Disenchantment is unsurprisingly higher the lower your SEG 41% 50% 59% 50% 65% 70% 67% 35% 30% 33% 43% 57% Have Have not 32% AB 52% 48% C1 68% 62% C2 38% 82% DE 18% Q. People often talk about our divided society nowadays and how Britain is now a nation of Haves and the "Have nots". Which group do you feel best describes you? Base: Representative sample of the British public excluding those who say don t know (n=1,384) Have Have not

9 And by political leaning and beliefs PAST VOTE Conservative leaners are MUCH less likely to feel disenchanted than Labour/UKIP supporters EU REF Leavers are more likely to feel left behind than remainers 66% are haves 32% are haves 33% are haves 34% are have nots 68% are have nots 67% are have nots 62% Leave voters 38% Have Have not 49% Remain voters 51%

10 People in different parts of Britain are living totally different lives Kerry, Cleaner, Waitress and Nanny, Harlow Single mum of a 10 year old boy, and rents a room in her mum s house Works three jobs to cover all the bill and childcare and even then has very little to spare at the end of the month Feels that people like her are ignored and that more money is spent on services for immigrant communities Martin, Civil Servant, Leamington Spa Is proud of what he s achieved in life: was the first person in his family to go to university and has built a comfortable life by working hard Felt pleased when his oldest daughter was accepted in to university, but worries about her future beyond that Blames struggles for young people getting onto the property ladder on poor management by successive politicians Charity should start at home. There are a lot of people struggling, and they can t get any help. I work 3 jobs and I can t afford somewhere to live. I live with my mum, with my 10 year old son in a room, we re earning just enough to get by. If I didn t have my mum s support I couldn t manage. I came from a working class background and I went to university and it took me to a life that I wouldn t have had. I think now young people are looking at the debt and are put off.

11 and holding totally different views of the same issue Steve, Builder, Harlow Has lived in Harlow all his life, and describes the area as in decline especially public services Thinks that places like East London are now too dangerous for White British people as the Muslim community is so dominant Feels he can no longer fly an England flag when the football is on because of political correctness gone mad British culture is fading away, the influx of the migrants is changing things in Britain. People who don t want to integrate. When they come over here, and they can t speak English properly, and you can t talk to them at work, you have to get someone to interpret. Chris, HR Manager, Leamington Spa Feels optimistic about his local area and the economy Thinks that multiculturalism has been a great thing for the UK and has made it a more interesting and vibrant place to live Says that most immigrants he has met or worked with have been hardworking, polite and a great addition to the country much harder working than white benefit scroungers There are British citizens who aren t working and there are people coming in and it s nothing to do with colour or religion, it s to do with whether you re willing to do certain jobs for that amount of money.

12 Does it matter if Britain is divided?

13 It does matter to the have nots because they feel they are losing out to an indistinguishable class of elites who are just out for themselves Them.. they don t get our lives, they don t live in our shoes. The working lower class voted out, and the upper class voted in because they ve got the money and they have more to lose. It affects them more than it affects you. People with money. They re panicking more that we re out [of the EU]. Harlow, Female The big people, they think that it s a united country, because they don t know about our lives. Harlow, Male They don t know about anything about real life, their daily shop probably cost what our weekly shop costs. Harlow, Female When it comes to these tax laws, and you tax these higher earners they ll go so long it s those higher earners that donate to the Conservative party, who own the big newspapers. It sounds good taxing them more but how are you going to do it? Harlow, Male

14 It matters to haves too, who are angry and embarrassed about a group of people they see as ignorant and uneducated The thing about Wales is they all voted out, but they re reliant on an industry that unfortunately doesn t work, and people need to understand that this industry doesn t work anymore. And yet the EU was plugging money into Wales! Leamington Spa, Female When those people get angry they will turn out in their droves to show their displeasure. We re not the political power anymore. The same people chose Boaty McBoatface at the end of the day. Leamington Spa, Male I was always proud of Britian s tolerance but the Referendum campaign became if you vote to leave all the immigrants will go. A lot of the guys I know from working class areas, are very much the immigrants ruin everything so they should go away. Leamington Spa, Male I m still appalled that we ever had the vote personally, I still can t believe they gave the public the chance to vote on it. Most people don t know enough and don t pay any attention to the facts. Leamington Spa, Male

15 Brexit is viewed as bringing these long-simmering divides to a head Seen by have nots as: Ordinary people triumphing over elites An opportunity to fight back against the personal and local impacts of immigration Being given licence to say things they wouldn't say previously because of fears of being un-p.c. Seen by haves as: Vulnerable downtrodden people who have been manipulated Scapegoating immigration because of problems in their lives Threatening dearly held values like tolerance and diversity We as a country have created a society of levels. And this won t change, because politicians, most politicians are millionaires. So how are they representative of us? When they re making laws. The rich people could make change but won t because the system works for them Harlow, Male My family come from Stoke on Trent, and it s a really impoverished city. Their outlook on the EU was so different to my friends here, and in London, and these are my cousins, the same family, age. It s Cities vs Rural, but also cities with outdated industries that have no regeneration. My cousin by the time she was 26 had been made redundant 4 times, in an industry our family had worked in for generations. It s so different to my life. Leamington Spa, Female

16 What should Brexit Britain look like?

17 Everyone agrees that there needs to be change otherwise Britain will become more and more divided Brexit is perceived as a catalyst for change Even remainers agree that Brexit must mean Brexit Critical for democracy And they are united in feeling fed up of slow progress Politicians seeming to go on holiday rather than focus on the task at hand Done right, Brexit is seen as an opportunity to bring Britain back together It is hoped that Brexit can lead to a fairer and more equal Britain Make Britain better, make it a fairer system. People who are working basically have to fend for themselves. I split up with my husband, my baby was 3 weeks old, I couldn t pay the mortgage, but because I was employed I got nothing. Harlow, Female Do something! They ve not done anything so far, a couple of them have taken some holidays. At the point of the biggest decision this country has ever made. Harlow, Male

18 And re Brexit, some unanimity emerges Everyone says they want clear and concrete plan as soon as possible With clear next steps, timescales and accountability All the speeches, they sound very good. I d like them to give a timescale of when things are going to happen. Not just taking quotes out of the sky, give a rough idea of when they re going to try to achieve these. So we can have more faith in what they re telling us. Harlow, Male I just want a plan - this is the only time I ve ever said this sentence, but I d quite like to see a PowerPoint presentation of the next steps, of what s going to happen. Leamington Spa, Male

19 But there is little understanding of the trade offs that will follow Brexit People no longer believe that the pledge of 350 million extra for the NHS will happen Have nots have little concern for the trade vs immigration trade off Haves are clear that trade is more important although acknowledge that continuing high levels of immigration will not be accepted Have nots are adamant that immigration is the priority and feel no connection to discussions over trade deals. It seems illogical to them that immigration would not have to decreased now Have nots expect that Brexit and lower immigration will free up the money needed to improve public services Well you could say, we re not going to have any immigration, but there s no certainty that that s achievable, so let s go for trade unless there s a plan otherwise. Leamington Spa, Female No one round this table owns a multimillion pound company, or is trading in stocks and shares. It shows again that in Westminster, it s about them lining their pockets, it s not about us. It could well be about jobs. But they re not hopping out their seats to bail out a steel mill in wales, but if it s a bank, they ve got their money invested in it and they care Harlow, Male

20 The public s top priorities for the country are focused on the NHS and immigration 30% 20% 10% 8% 6% 6% Deliver a well-funded and efficient NHS Significantly reduce immigration Negotiate strong trade deals for Britain as we leave the EU Better support for struggling working families Building 1m new Bringing Britain homes, with half to be together again council houses following the European referendum There s a lot within the cog of the NHS which is wrong, but to keep cutting and to keep cutting I see people on their knees on a daily basis. It s not about increasing the spending, it s actually looking at the management and making it work better Leamington Spa, Female Immigration control, there s a lot of things that they need to do, but the first thing she needs to do is control the population, help people get a job and somewhere to live Harlow, Male The policies that people don t prioritise include: Reintroducing grammar schools, improving the transport infrastructure outside the South East, cracking down on the pay of top executives, abolishing tuition fees and re-introducing the 50p top rate of tax Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you?

21 These priorities are shared by haves and have nots Deliver a well-funded and efficient NHS 29% 35% Significantly reduce immigration Negotiate strong trade deals for Britain as we leave the EU 6% 16% 18% 22% The focus has got to be on supporting people who are already working rather than benefits for the unemployed Leamington Spa, Female Better support for struggling working families 5% 9% Building 1m new homes, with half to be council houses 7% 6% Immigration first and the rest will flow, it will free up more money Harlow, Female Bringing Britain together again following the European referendum 6% 6% Have Nots Haves Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you?

22 And equally, haves and have nots are less interested in the same policies Abolish university tuition fees and bring back maintenance grants 3% 4% Reducing the deficit in Britain's public sector finances Reintroduce 50p top rate of tax for people earning more than 150k Improving transport infrastructure to improve economy outside London and the South East 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% Policies that affect other people (e.g. taxing the highest earners) are felt to have too little impact on people s own lives to be a priority by both groups Reintroduce grammar schools 1% 1% I think it gives nearly rich people a free education. I d love for my kids to go to grammar school, but I don t think it s fair. Leamington Spa, Male Put workers onto the boards of big companies 0% 1% Have Nots Haves Q1. Below are some policy ideas that have been proposed by leading politicians... Which one is the most important for you?

23 Immigration is the lens through which people see each of these policies and issues It is seen as the main cause of the overburdened NHS, rather than a lack of funding Everyone agrees that immigration must be better controlled and they want a clear and concrete plan for what this will look like Have nots are adamant that controlling immigration would solve many of the problems in the UK Haves agree that immigration needs to be controlled, so that only the best and most appropriate foreign workers are allowed to live in the UK An Australian points based system is a popular example given for how to control immigration successfully For me looking at a lot of them, the money s got to come from somewhere, and the only way you can get that is migration, stopping people coming to claim money then disappearing. We can put money in to schools, the NHS. Harlow, Male It s who you bring in rather than the number it s got to be like the Australians with a point system. It would solve a lot of problems rather than letting everyone in who becomes unemployed and is on benefits. Leamington Spa, Female

24 Is Theresa May the right person to lead Britain through Brexit?

25 For many voters, the jury is out on May For some, it is too soon to judge Theresa May as Prime Minister or to see if she ll be different to other politicians Too little has happened and she has had too little time to prove herself But many voters particularly women do see reason to feel cautiously optimistic In contrast to the perception of David Cameron as an out of touch Etonian, May appears more in touch with the average person Nothing she could do or say in those 5 minutes on the telly would make me think that this one s different. It s going to be actions over the next 5 years that matter. Harlow, Male I just don t know enough about her I m just watching her avidly to see whether she delivers on her promises. She obviously thought very carefully about her speech but she s made some interesting appointments. It s watch and wait really. Leamington Spa, Female David Cameron sometimes talks like he s above everybody, he couldn t explain the struggles of what normal people are going through. They re from the same party, but she talks with more compassion, she comes across as a warm person, addressing people as individuals. More sincere. Harlow, Female

26 Her One Nation speech is felt to indicate that things might be moving in the right direction While the speech is little known, when shown the clip most voters are positive, particularly on people left behind Make Britain a country that works not for a privileged few, but for every one of us Life is much harder than many people in Westminster realise I know that sometimes life can be a struggle The government I lead will be driven not by the interests of the privileged few, but by yours If you re at a state school, you re less likely to reach the top professions realise that there s than anger if and you re antiestablishment feeling. educated privately If you re just managing, I want to address you directly You have a job but you don t always have job security She showed empathy, when she was talking about we know your lives are hard Harlow, Female It gives me goosebumps I thought it Government not driven by the interests of the privileged few. I liked that. There are some sectors of people in this country who are neglected. Like the young ones, who can t find a job. Harlow, Male She mentioned privileged few on at least a few occasions so they re showing that they Leamington Spa, Male was brilliant. Stunning stuff. We will do everything we can to help anybody, whatever Leamington your Spa, background, Female to go as far as your talents will take you

27 But voters now want to see action and are unanimous that delivering Brexit will be May s biggest and most important test Those who know a little about her see May as a potentially strong negotiator May is perceived as tough and no-nonsense from her time as Home Secretary. This is seen as a valuable asset to have during Brexit negotiations I think she ll be a much stronger person she s shown it already in her role as Home Secretary. She was very adamant in things that she said and she stood by them. I think Ken Clarke was caught on TV saying she was a very strong character. Leamington Spa, Female But those who know less worry that she is just another politician Who will lie, let them down and fail to deliver on their promises You see that from politicians all the time saying they re being inclusive when they re not. Harlow, Male

28 On the public s top priorities, Theresa May is trusted to do a better job than Jeremy Corbyn even with the NHS Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn I don't agree with this policy Don't know Number 1 priority: Number 2 priority: Number 3 priority: 58% 46% 38% 30% 31% 33% 28% 1% 12% 12% 9% 2% Deliver a well-funded and efficient NHS Significantly reduce immigration Negotiate strong trade deals for Britain as we leave the EU I don t think there s an alternative. I ve never voted blue in my life but there s no one else out there who makes me feel passionate the way Theresa May does. Leamington Spa, Female There s no opposition at the moment, so the Tories can do what they want Leamington Spa, Male Q2. For each of these policies who would you trust most to do a good job Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn?

29 And she is generally trusted to do a better job of bringing Britain back together Who would do a better job of bringing Britain back together following the referendum? Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn I don't agree with this policy Don't know 34% 48% 2% 16% Q2. For each of these policies who would you trust most to do a good job Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn?

30 Corbyn has made little impact on voters Recognition of Corbyn and his policies is low Half of the participants in the focus groups in Harlow did not recognise a photo of him Those who do know him see him as a bit inept at best A man of principle but a poor leader of the party At worst, he is viewed as actively dishonest The train incident seriously dented trust among the more knowledgeable Repeated concerns directed at Corbyn include being disingenuous, arrogant and out of touch with the working class people he should be representing Who is he? Harlow, Female Poor Jeremy, he s not that bad! I think it s a shame, I feel sorry for him because he s a bit of tragic figure head Leamington Spa, Female He s the worst of that real left wing elite insular Primrose Hill set Leamington Spa, Female group

31 People think that Jeremy Corbyn could deliver on policies like scrapping tuition fees and increasing welfare payments i.e. the policies that matter less to many of them Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn I don't agree with this policy Don't know 38% 37% 39% 39% 41% 33% 31% 28% 30% 27% 28% 29% 23% 19% 17% 17% 9% 10% 4% 2% Abolish university tuition fees and bring back maintenance grants Reintroduce 50p top rate of tax for people earning more than 150k Crack down on the pay and bonuses of the highest paid executives Increasing welfare and benefit payments Better support for struggling working families Q2. For each of these policies who would you trust most to do a good job Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn?

32 A plan to bring Britain back together means 3 things: A Brexit Action Plan Timetable Impacts spelt out Immigration promises kept Points (or similar) A fair deal for the (deserving) have nots