Reflections on the History of Migration

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1 Migration Policy Center IX Migration Summer School Theory, Methods and Policies Massimo Livi Bacci, University of Florence Reflections on the History of Migration Thursday, June 27 1

2 Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man Man has spread widely over the face of the earth, and must have been exposed, during his incessant migration, to the most diversified conditions. The inhabitants of the Tierra del Fuego, the Cape of Good Hope, and Tasmania in one hemisphere, and of the arctic region in the other, must have passed through many climates, and changed their habits many times, before they reached their present homes 2

3 Mobility and Migration - Individual prerogative and capacity - An essential component of human capital - Denied in particular de facto or legal settings (slavery, serfdom, indentured servants ); - Closely related to technical progress in communication and transportation; - Powerful factor of human relations and interactions; of biogenetic and cultural admixtures; - Powerful factor of diffusion of knowledge, cultural traits, languages, behaviors; - In modern times: free and often encouraged within states borders. But strictly controlled and restricted between states 3

4 John Kenneth Galbraith «The nature of Mass Poverty» (1979 (I) Over the last two centuries, the individuals seeking escape from the equilibrium of poverty rejecting accommodation have had one remarkably certain, recourse. For most of those who have attempted it, it has served well. For their children even better. It has only rarely required any active effort from the part of governments. More often it has required only their acquiescence and, most often, in recent times, only their non-vigilance. It has placed no strain on the capacity for public action of the poor countries. Where fully exploited, it has not only involved the escape from poverty for those directily involved, but it has facilitated escape within the equilibrium of poverty for those motivated to a 4 different course.

5 «The Nature of Mass Poverty» (II) Migration, we have seen, is the oldest action against poverty. It selects those who most want help. It is good for the country to which they go; it helps to break the equilibrium of poverty in the country from which they come. What is the perversity in the human soul that cause people to resist so obvious a good? (John Kenneth Galbraith, 1979) 5

6 Pristine forces of population dispersion Ability to reproduce and grow demographically; Ability to move and migrate Migration is an innately human characteristic promoting the diffusion, consolidation and growth of the human species Siberian hunters venturing eastward over the Behring landbridge 20 to 25,000 years ago, diffusing over America from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego in a few thousand years 6

7 Agricultural and Neolithic Revolutions in the Mediterranean: Waves of Progress & Diffusion (slow and gradual) Agricultural revolution from the Fertile Crescent in the Middle East (9,000 years ago) to the British Isles (5,000 years ago); Cultural diffusion hypothesis: knowledge and techniques are transferred to neighboring people; Demic diffusion hypothesis (Cavalli Sforza): agriculturalists migrate. Demographic growth generates migration waves into new empty or low-density territories. The wave proceeded with an average speed of about 1Km per year. Other possible case of demic diffusion: Bantu migration from the Camerun-Nigeria line, through central and southern Africa 7

8 Great eastward German migration, X to XIV century: Drang nach Osten Several hundred thousands farmers over three centuries, with proper tools, animals, and some capital; «generating» a population of 30 millions east of the Elba; From the Rhein valley, beyond Elba, Oder, Vistula 1,000 kms in three centuries Organized by Princes, Bishops, Chivalric Orders with capital and planners In open land, sparsely settled by seminomadic Vend (Slavs); Ownership of land and possible transmission of property Large families, generating demographic surplus and new settlement waves 8

9 Migration Waves in Modern Times In north America, the «frontier» moves across the Mississippi to the Pacific Ocean (acquisition of Louisiana, California, Texas; Homstead Act, 1862; gold rush; transpacific); In Siberian Russia, between the 1860s and First World War (liberation of serfs; transiberian railway); Into Manchuria from China, in the XIX century and until the 1920s (completion of the Peking-Mukden railway in

10 Selection & Reproduction (I) Migrants are not a random sample of the population of origin: age, health, strength, stamina, willingness to experiment, ability to adapt This amounts to the concept of fitness Numerical success of migrant groups depends on reproduction (fertility & survival) Founder or Settler effect (French Canadians XVII-XVIII, Germans in Russia, XVIII to XIX) Displacement of native groups; differential growth; political impact 10

11 Selection & Reproduction (II) Migrants of the «waves of migration» in rural contexts: higher fertility, larger families; Immigrants in Québec (XVII): higher marital fertility, lower age at marriage, lower mortality than in the regions of origin; Higher survival in Australia and New Zealand than in the British Isles; Immigrants in industrial and urban context: high mobility, low fertility and small families 11

12 Founder or Settler effect Differential (higher) increase of migrant groups and (possible) displacement of natives; French Canadians of Québec, several millions descending from few thousand settlers in the XVII c.; 30,000 German settlers in the Volga region in late XVII, half a million in late XVIII; Latinos in North America, mid XX to nowdays 12

13 America s Population, (I): «high returns» for European migrants At contact: unknown American indigenous population, 100% indios (30-50 million?); In 1800: 25 million, of which about 45% indios & mestizos; 32% europeans; 23% africans Net immigration from Europe (mostly from Britannia, Iberia), 2.3 million ( ); Europeans in America in 1800: about 8 millions; Ratio between stock and net migration (8/2,3), equals 3.6. ( high return : 3,6 discendents per migrant) Returns higher in North America than in Hispanic and Portuguese America 13

14 America s population, (II): negative returns for African (forced) immigration Population of African origin in America in 1800: 5,6 millions; Net immigration (slaves), , 7.2 milions; Ratio between stock and net immigration (5,6/7,2) equals 0,8: negative return : 0,8 descendants per 1 migrant; Worst negative return in the Caribbean islands (0,4); about average in Brazil (0,9); slightly «positive returns» in North America 14

15 The rise of modern Migration Policies (MP) Migration policies (MP) common feature of organized political entities (i.e: Greek-Roman World Inca empire); MP and the rise of modern States: formalization of borders, rules of citizienship, regulation of flows; MP intervene in order to select flows of emigrants; in some cases in the attempt of enhancing their fitness (incentives in money or kind, tools, seeds, land ); MP and organized migration: success (Drang van Osten, Prussia-Russia) but also failures (Spain- Santo Domingo, XVI; Lorraine-Tuscany, XVII; Germany-Andalusia, XVII ) 15

16 Policies Dilemmas Random or Selection Hidden or Transparent selectivity Short term or long term Settlement or full citizenship Persons or Workers Alone or connected Immigrants and Refugees 16

17 No International Governance of Migration OIM, ILO, UNCHR; UN family in general: no supranational functions or mandate; International Conventions: ILO # 97 (1949); # 143 (1975), dealing with migrant workers: few ratifications. UN Convention on the Rights of Migrant Workers and their Families: ratified by only 43 States (2 in Europe) as of 2009; UN Global Commission on Migration, 2005 (very modest) proposal of an Inter-Agency Global Migration Facility (IGMF), unimplemented; No International Agency like WTO is planned or even envisaged. No country inclined to forgo even a fraction of its sovereignety on migration in favor of a supranational org 17

18 International Governance Badly needed: Realistic Objectives for Today Data collection and monitoring of trends; Policy research and development; Migrant identification: certifying nationality, place of birth, family status & relations; Certifying education, skills, kowledge of languages; Ensuring cheap and secure transmission of remittances; protecting pension rights; Standards for family reunions; Standards for readmission of irregular migrants; Standards for work contracts; 18

19 International Governance Badly needed: Realistic Objectives for Tomorrow ABOVE ALL: Protection of the rights of migrants (reg & irreg); International agreements and enforcement powers for: - family reunions; - work contracts; - readmission of irregular migrants; - Etc etc 19

2. In what stage of the demographic transition model are most LDC? a. First b. Second c. Third d. Fourth e. Fifth

2. In what stage of the demographic transition model are most LDC? a. First b. Second c. Third d. Fourth e. Fifth 1. The three largest population clusters in the world are in a. East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia b. East Asia, South Asia, South America c. Africa, South Asia, East Asia d. Australia, South Asia,