Could it Happen Here? Canada in the Age of Trump and Brexit

Transcription

1 Could it Happen Here? Canada in the Age of Trump and Brexit Michael Adams President The Environics Institute for Survey Research 1

2 Q: What exactly is it? A) Xenophobia B) Populist backlash C) Unprecedented income inequality D) Class resentment E) Erosion of democratic rules and norms F) All the above

3 The story of Could It Happen Here? begins on the evening of November 8 th, 2016 CLINTON 232 TRUMP 306

4 Back in the mid 1930 s, novelist Sinclair Lewis thought it could happen in America during the Great Depression

5 In today s world, on stage right we have, inter alia Viktor Orban Donald Trump Geert Wilders Marine Le Pen Norbert Hofer Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

6 And on the center-left we have... Justin Trudeau Emmanuel Macron Angela Merkel Jeremy Corbyn Bernie Sanders

7 And on the right in Canada we have recently seen the likes of... Mario Dumont Pauline Marois Stephen Harper Rob Ford Kellie Leitch Kevin O Leary

8 Let s turn the clock back and reflect on how our world has evolved since the end of the Cold War 8

9 With the collapse of European communism in 89-91, the dominance of democratic capitalism seemed inevitable to some

10 But then the former Yugoslavia imploded in ethnic and sectarian bloodshed

11 Followed by the shock of 9/11

12 And more recently the implosion of Syria and the rise of ISIS

13 Turmoil in the Middle East and Africa has led to massive dislocation and migration of refugees into Europe

14 Including baby Aylan Kurdi, who s death moved the hearts and minds of Canadians

15 Rekindling the spirit that inspired Canada to welcome 60,000 boat people in the late 1970 s

16 Meanwhile in Europe, the influx of refugees contributes to the rise of xenophobic nationalism across the continent

17 ...as well as intolerance: don t wear too many clothes on our beaches ladies!

18 Then, in the US, Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, taps into growing xenophobic populism by... Calling Mexicans rapists Promising a wall along the US-Mexico border Calling for a complete ban on Muslims entering the US Calling for the arrest of undocumented immigrants Promising to shut down Obama s Dreamer program

19 Exploiting the value divide between America s two seemingly irreconcilable political tribes, as revealed in Environics 2016 US social values survey Top Values of Republicans Xenophobia Status & Security Exclusion & Intensity Active Government Traditional Family Joy of Consumption AUTHORITY Duty Religiosity Obedience to Authority Cultural Assimilation Parochialism Multiculturalism Global Consciousness Authenticity National Pride & Responsibility Ethical Consumerism Idealism & Autonomy Ecological Concern FULFILMENT Top Values of Democrats Flexible Families INDIVIDUALITY

20 But Canada is no stranger to xenophobia 1600s today: Long assault on Indigenous Peoples 1800s: Poor treatment of Irish migrants : Racist immigration policies 1930s: Anti-semitism ( None is too many ) 1940s: Internment of Japanese Canadians More recently: Police profiling of racialised minorities

21 And our racist policies reflected public opinion of the times 1946 If Canada does allow more immigration, are there any of these nationalities which you would like to keep out? Japaneese Jewish German Russian Negro Italian Chinese Canadian Institute for Public Opinion (Gallup)

22 Even in the early 1960s 1961 As you know, Canada restricts the admission of non-whites to this country. Do you think this should continue, or do you think there should be fewer restrictions on non-whites? Restrictions should continue 53 Should be fewer restrictions 36 Qualified / No opinion 11 Canadian Institute for Public Opinion (Gallup)

23 However, the mid 1960 s ushered in more progressive principles and policies reflecting the rapid evolution of Canadian values 1967: Opening the door to point-based/colour blind immigration 1971: Canada becomes the first country to adopt Multiculturalism as an official policy, reinforced by the Canadian Multiculturalism Act in 1988 Late 1970 s: Accepting 60,000 refugees from South-East Asia 2015: Truth and Reconciliation report and calls to action 2015/16: Welcoming over 40,000 Syrian refugees

24 But do average Canadians truly support immigration and the ideology of multiculturalism? 24

25 First off, the plurality thinks multiculturalism and diversity makes Canada unique What makes Canada unique? (unprompted mentions) Multiculturalism/diversity 43 Land/geography 17 Freedom/free country/democracy 14 Friendly/humble/nice people The people (non-specific) Weather/climate/cold 7 Peace/peacefulness 7 Bilingualism 3 Natural resources 6 Aboriginal peoples/culture 2 Universal health care 6 Hockey 1 Political system 5 The North/Arctic 1 Tolerence 4 Other 9 Values 3 dk/na 7 Focus Canada (2016)

26 And Canadians now disagree that immigration levels are too high Agree Disagree: Immigration levels are too high Agree Disagree Focus Canada (2017)

27 With the vast majority continuing to believe that the economic impact of immigrants is positive Agree Disagree: Economic impact of immigration is positive Agree Disagree Focus Canada (2017)

28 And a strong majority consistently reject the idea that immigrants take away jobs from other Canadians Agree Disagree: Immigrants take away Canadian jobs Agree Disagree Focus Canada (2015)

29 For the first time in 30 years, the plurality of Canadians now disagree that many refugee claimants are not legitimate Agree Disagree: Many refugee claimants are not legitimate Agree Disagree dk/na Focus Canada (2017)

30 As for immigrants, the vast majority identify more with Canada than their country of birth Among Canadians born abroad Immigrant identification with Canada vs. country of birth Identify more with Canada Identify more with country of birth Both equally Neither/ dk/na Canadians on Citizenship (2012)

31 Members of the rapidly growing Muslim community are even more proud to be Canadian than non-muslims Very proud to be Canadian TOTAL Quebec Ontario West TOTAL MUSLIMS NON-MUSLIMS Survey of Muslims in Canada (2016)

32 Finally, Native-born Canadians and immigrants both agree on the values that immigrants should adopt 2011 What values are most important for immigrants to adopt? (unprompted mentions) Respect for Canada's history and culture English and/or French fluency Tolerance for others Respect for the law Respect for other religions 5 10 Need to assimilate 8 9 Immigrants Native-born Trudeau Foundation Survey (2011)

33 But do all these tolerant attitudes translate into behaviour? 33

34 Unlike elsewhere, the vast majority (85%) of eligible immigrants are citizens Citizenship status for Immigrants prior to 2012, 2016 Citizens of Canada and at least one other country 16.8% Not Canadian citizens 14.2% Citizens of Canada only 69.0% Statistics Canada, 2016

35 Even more remarkable is that in 2015 Canadians elected 46 foreign-born MPs, up from 42 in Parliament number of foreign-born elected MP s, by party 184 Total number of MPs Foreign-born MPs

36 Immigrants matter: At least 1 in 5 in our 12 largest cities - and nearly 80% in the Toronto CMA - are first or second generation Percent of population by generation, Canada, 2016 Toronto London Vancouver Oshawa Calgary Montréal Hamilton Edmonton Windsor K-C-W Winnipeg Victoria Canada St. Catharines - Niagara Ottawa - Gatineau Regina First generation Saskatoon Second generation Halifax Sherbrooke Québec Statistics Canada, 2016

37 From the RCMP to 24 Sussex: how soon before Canada s prime Minister sports a Turban (and totes a kirpan)?

38 However, the majority (albeit a declining proportion) of Canadians believe that too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values Agree Disagree: Too many immigrants do not adopt Canadian values Agree Disagree Focus Canada (2017)

39 And no Canadian value is more important than gender equality, including religious tolerance Canada should be a country In which men and women are treated equally in all walks of life Where the practices of all religions are respected, provided they fall within the law Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat/strongly disagree Trudeau Foundation Survey (2012)

40 Lest we forget our recent history 40

41 The early Reform Party tapped into the Eastern establishment's progressive liberalism by giving voice to......opposition to relentless efforts to accommodate Quebec, increasing immigration and the ideology of multiculturalism

42 Mike Harris s 1995 Common Sense Revolution was the first backlash against tax and spend government in Ontario

43 Stephen Harper s war on data led chief statistician, Munir Sheikh, to resign on July 21st, 2010

44 And his government s tough on crime agenda exploited anxiety about rising crime and lenient treatment of criminals We're not governing on the basis of the latest statistics" - Justice Minister Rob Nicholson, Dec 1 st, 2011

45 In 2015, Harper insists Muslim women show their face at citizenship ceremonies, however......zunera Ishaq asserts her Charter rights in court (and wins)

46 And in 2016, Kellie Leitch, co-author of the barbaric cultural practices snitch line, launches her bid for the Conservative party leadership If you are tired of feeling like we can t discuss what our Canadian values are, then please help me to fight back by making a donation.

47 And sometimes, Canada endures its own form of terrorism and hate crime 47

48 Toronto 18 ring leader, Zakaria Amara, is convicted of terrorism on Jan 18 th, 2010

49 And on January 29, 2017, Alexandre Bissonnette kills 6 Muslim worshippers in Quebec City

50 So while Canada is not immune to xenophobia, what is it that protects us from a populist tsunami? 50

51 Lets start by by looking at at the the evolving structure structure of authority of authority in the in the family... family...the cradle of our values Agree: Father of the family must be master in his own house ( ) USA Canada Environics Research Canadian and US Social Values ( )

52 And in the country that celebrates difference, there is a national consensus on patriarchy...unlike in the US Agree: Father of the family must be master in his own house (2016) Environics Research Canadian Social Values (2016)

53 Aside from gender equality, the most remarkable evolution of Canadian social values is the acceptance of same sex unions Society should regard people of the same sex who live together as being the same as a married couple ( ) Environics Research Canadian Social Values ( )

54 And sometimes we go beyond tolerance of the other: mixed race unions are becoming more commonplace % of couples in mixed unions in Canada Proportion of individuals in mixed unions - Visible Minority Group, Canada, 2011, 04.6% Japanese Latin American 48% 79% Black 40% Filipino 30% Arab Korean Southeast Asian West Asian 25% 23% 22% 20% Chinese 19% South Asian 13% Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011

55 And surprisingly, the great white north is more urban than the American republic % or total population living in... 55% United States Canada 36% 27% 13% Top 3 CMAs Top 10 CMAs U.S. Census Bureau estimates, 2016 Census

56 Why cities matter More diversity More cosmopolitan Better educated More youthful More reliant on public infrastructure and services More creative More open More tolerant

57 57 So, could it happen here?

58 Looking into the future Tolerance for the most part is holding for now What could change? Significant economic downturn/disruption Dramatic world events with global consequences Homegrown terrorism Erosion of central institutions (such as equalization, public health insurance and public education)

59 And a pollster s prediction Canada s... History of mutual accommodation Shared values Political institutions Healthcare and social programs Public education Dedication to reconciliation with Indigenous peoples Programs to promote immigrant/refugee integration Programs to eliminate racial and religious discrimination.suggest we will not experience deep alienation from marginalized minorities nor deep backlash from significant segments of the majority

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