The New Canada. Presented by: Dr. Darrell Bricker
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1 The New Canada Presented by: Dr. Darrell Bricker 2018 Darrell Bricker. All rights reserved. Contains Proprietary information and insights may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of the presenter. 1
2 We Don t Know Our Own Country Anymore 2
3 The Forces of Change Are Creating a New Canada 3
4 4 Let s Have Some Fun!
5 So, how well do you think you know your country and fellow Canadians? Let s find out 68% of Canadians enjoy quizzes 5
6 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region most likely to support the de-criminalization of marijuana? ATLANTIC CANADA 6
7 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region that hates taxes the most? QUEBEC 7
8 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region most religious, most believes the devil is active and most believes we ll all perish in battle of Armageddon? ATLANTIC CANADA 8
9 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? ATLANTIC CANADA 9
10 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region least likely to believe Canada would be better off if immigrants went back where they came from? ALBERTA 10
11 Oh Canada, eh? Percentage of Canadians who are Muslim: Average Guess: 20.2% Actual: 2% (-18.5 points) 11
12 12 We ve Changed
13 The Old Canada is giving way to the New Canada 13
14 The Great White North English and French very white The Old Canada More Rural focus on natural resources Big families, big households, what the kids want Values Of Elite Accommodation driven by white men in Toronto, Montreal and Ottawa Eyes on the Atlantic, fear of the US. Trusting Of Public Authorities And Institutions (Peace, Order and Good Government) 14
15 15 POPULATION PATTERNS
16 EMERGING DEMOGRAPHIC FORCES Fertility/Aging Urbanization Multiculturalism 16
17 17 FERTILITY
18 Historical Age Pyramid for Canada MALE FEMALE
19 THE FERTILITY RATE DROP Fertility Rate, Canada: (average number of children a woman aged 15 to 49 would have in her lifetime) 19
20 DECLINE EVERYWHERE 2011 Total Fertility Rate Canada 1.61 Saskatchewan 1.99 Manitoba Alberta Quebec Prince Edward Island New Brunswick Ontario Nova Scotia Newfoundland/Labrador British Columbia
21 WORLD VS CANADA: FERTILITY RATES WORLD 1960 = 4.9 Today = = 2.3 CANADA 1960 = 3.9 Today = = 1.7 United Nations Population Estimates 21
22 FERTILITY IN 10 BIGGEST COUNTRIES CUT BY HALF IN LAST HALF CENTURY China India US Indonesia Brazil Avg Pakistan Nigeria Avg. Today Bangladesh Russia Japan
23 23 AGING
24 AVERAGE LIFESPAN OF CANADIANS 1920's 57 Now
25 WORLD VS CANADA: PERCENTAGE OF SENIORS WORLD 1960 = 5% Today = 9.3% 2050 = 16% CANADA 1960 = 7.7% Today = 18.3% 2050 = 26.4% United Nations Population Estimates 25
26 POPULATION 65 YEARS AND OVER, BY REGION 2011 AND PROJECTED 2036 (PERCENT) CAN NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC
27 27 More Seniors Than Kids
28 Number of Canadians Aged ,900 By 2061 this will climb to 78,300 the size of Victoria, B.C. 28
29 WORKING AGE AND DEPENDENCY FOR CANADA 1971 In 1971 there were 6.6 people of working age for each senior 6.6 PER 2012 In 2012 there are PER 2036 Projections put the ratio at 2 to 1 in PER 29
30 MEDIAN NET WORTH OF CANADIAN FAMILIES $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 By Age of Family Head, 2011 (dollars) $378,300 $533,600 $460,700 $300,000 $200,000 $243,800 $182,500 $100,000 $0 $25,300 All Families Under 35 years years years years 65+ years 30
31 31 URBANIZATION
32 OVER HALF OF WORLD LIVES IN URBAN AREAS % of the World s population living in urban areas 32
33 % OF TOTAL CANADIAN POPULATION RURAL VS. URBAN POPULATION IN CANADA: Rural Population in Canada Urban Population in Canada YEAR Note: The rural population for 1981 to 2006 refers to persons living outside centres with a population of 1,000 AND outside areas with 400 persons per square kilometre. Previous to 1981, the definitions differed slightly but consistently referred to populations outside centres of 1,000 population. Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1851 to Last modified: 33
34 34 34
35 THE BIG SHIFT: SHARE OF POPULATION BY REGION Atlantic 6.6% 10.4% Quebec 23.3% 28.9% Ontario 34.3% 38.4% Prairies 17.5% 18.4% BC 9.0% 13.3%
36 THE BIG SHIFT CONTINUES: POPULATION GROWTH Canada 5.00 Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba BC Ontario 4.60 Quebec 3.30 PEI 1.90 Newfoundland/Labrador 1.00 Nova Scotia 0.20 New Brunswick New Brunswick
37 POPULATION GROWTH FOR MAJOR CITIES Calgary 14.6% Vancouver 6.5% Toronto 6.2% Ottawa/Gatineau 5.5% Montreal Halifax 4.2% 3.3%
38 TEN FASTEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS Calgary Edmonton Saskatoon Regina Lethbridge 14.6% 13.9% 12.5% 11.8% 10.8% Kelowna Guelph Victoria Oshawa Winnipeg 8.4% 7.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6%
39 TEN SLOWEST GROWING METROPOLITAN AREAS Saint John -2.2% Thunder Bay Greater Sudbury Kingston Saguenay Belleville Peterborough Trois-Rivières Windsor Halifax 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3%
40 IMMIGRATION: CANADA S SECRET WEAPON 40
41 AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH FOR THE G8 Canada Leads the Pack 1.0% United States 0.8% UK 0.7% Italy 0.6% Russia 0.5% France 0.4% Germany 0.1% Japan -0.1%
42 CHANGE IN IMMIGRATION ENTRY CLASSIFICATION EMPHASIS ON ECONOMIC IMMIGRANTS , ,845 Family Class 42% Economic Immigrants 36% Refugees 19% Family Class 24% Economic Immigrants 63% Other Immigrants 2% Refugees 13% 42
43 TOP 10 COUNTRIES OF BIRTH OF RECENT IMMIGRANTS TO CANADA 1970 NOW U.K. 26,497 Philippines 50,846 U.S. 24,424 India 39,530 West Indies (Caribbean) Italy 12,456 8,533 China Iran 19,532 11,669 Portugal 7,902 Pakistan 11,329 Greece 6,327 Syria 9,853 Yugoslavia 5,672 USA 7,522 India 5,670 France 5,807 China 5,377 UK 5,946 France 4,410 Nigeria 4,133 43
44 FOREIGN BORN POPULATION BY REGION 2011 (percent) Canada 20.6 ON BC AB MB QC 12.6 SK 6.8 NS PE NB NL
45 9 OF 10 IMMIGRANTS LIVE IN URBAN CANADA POPULATION LIVING IN A LARGE URBAN AREA 2011 (percent) Immigrants Total Canadian Population 45
46 FOREIGN BORN AS A % OF CITY POPULATION 49.7% 39.6% 36.5% 34.7% 31.7% 28.9% 27.9% 20.6% 19.9% 46
47 47 Will This Change?
48 United States United Kingdom Canada Australia Switzerland Germany France New Zealand Italy Spain Singapore Japan Sweden United Arab Emirates Netherlands Norway Austria Hong Kong Brazil Ireland Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 16% 15% 13% 12% 11% 22% 20% 20% Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown. 34% FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to? Base: All Employed Respondents: n=
49 Our International Brand is a Draw 49
50 How The World Views Canadians: A place I d like to visit Some of most beautiful landscapes in the world Friendly Where rights & freedoms are respected Polite Educated Hard working One of the best qualities of life anywhere in the world One of the best healthcare systems in the world Care about the environment 97% 90% 86% 86% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 84% 50
51 How The World Views Canadians: Different than people in the U.S.A Financially well off Someone I would welcome into my house for a meal Tolerant of people of different racial/cultural backgrounds Welcoming to immigrants Cool A leader in working for peace/human rights around the world If I had a choice I would move to Canada Canadians are sexy 53% 53% 82% 81% 80% 79% 72% 70% 67% 51
52 The Transition to a New Canadian Mindset 52
53 The New Canada Urban-Suburban Multicultural Older, More Female Smaller households Increasing Generational Divide Eyes on the Pacific Tolerant, Opinionated, Demanding, Difficult We The North 53
54 THE NEW CANADA For You We re changing not a good thing or a bad thing, but an important thing. Growth GTA to the West especially the suburbs. Rural/small town contraction. Redefining work and retirement. Living longer and healthier. Growing share of well-derly. Emerging consumer, political force. More, smaller households. Smaller share of kids. Younger generations crushing debt, crushed dreams. Single women at both ends of age scale. Emerging economic, political force. Pacific identity, Asian tastes. 54
55 Redemption: So, now you get a second chance How well do you know Canada and your fellow Canadians? 55
56 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers? ATLANTIC CANADA 56
57 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region that Most Supports Canada s Navy: SASKATCHEWAN 57
58 Oh Canada, eh? The Fastest Growing Language in Canada: TAGALOG (Philippines) 58
59 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region Most Likely to Believe that Aliens have Come Down From Another Planet and are Actually Walking Among Us, Disguised, Today: ALBERTA 59
60 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region Believe they Belong First and Foremost to the Country, and Not Their Province: ONTARIO 60
61 Oh Canada, eh? Province/Region most likely to have used a mobile device in the bathroom and most likely to scoop it out if it falls in? PRAIRIES 61
62 Oh Canada, eh? Canadian city where women are most satisfied with their love life, body image, their personal health and satisfaction overall? TORONTO Where Darrell lives 62
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