2016 Census: Release 5 Immigration and ethnocultural diversity, Housing and the Aboriginal population

Transcription

1 2016 Census: Release 5 Immigration and ethnocultural diversity, Housing and the Aboriginal population Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer November 2, 2017

2 Today s presenter Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer 2

3 housekeeping Listen-only mode for attendees Questions at the end. Use the Webex Q&A Feature in your Interface Technical difficulties? Presentation deck will be available environicsanalytics.com/webcasts 3

4 Long-form census data 1. Data in this release are from the census long form, a 25 percent sample of households 2. The universe for the data is the population in private households 4

5 Overview 1. Cultural Diversity Ethnic Origin/Ancestry Immigration/Citizenship Visible Minorities 2. Aboriginal Population 3. Housing 5

6 Ethnicity Question 6

7 250 Ethnic origins reported by Canadians Top Ethnic Origins, Single and Multiple Responses, 2016, Canada Canadian count 11,136,000 % multiple count % multiple 42.2 First Nations 1,525, English 6,320, East Indian 1,374, Scottish 4,799, Ukrainian 1,359, French 4,670, Dutch 1,111, Irish 4,627, Polish 1,106, German 3,322, Filipino 837, Chinese 1,769, Russian 622, Italian 1,588, Métis 600, Total Multiple 41.1%

8 A mix of first, second and third generations Top Ethnic Origins by Generation, 2016, Canada First generation Second generation Third generation Filipino % Ukrainian Chinese English East Indian Scottish Russian Irish Italian French Polish First Nations Dutch Canadian German Métis

9 Immigration Questions 9

10 Generation Question 10

11 Immigration to Canada has averaged over 250,000 in last five years Immigration to Canada, , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 Count Percent of Population 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0 0% Source: Citizenship and immigration Canada

12 In recent years, close to 60% of Immigrants were Economic class Distribution (in percentage) of Immigrants Living in Canada, by Admission Category and Year of Immigration, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Economic immigrants % Immigrants sponsored by family % Refugees % Other immigrants 0% Source: Citizenship and immigration Canada

13 Immigrants now at highest level since 1931 Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to 2036 Number Percentage 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000, % 25% 20% 15% 4,000,000 10% 2,000,000 5% ,540,830 Immigrants 356,000 Non-permanent residents 0% Source: Statistics Canada

14 number of immigrants will continue to increase Number and Proportion of Foreign-born Population in Canada, 1871 to ,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000, Number Percentage Actual 23.7 Projected % 25% 20% 15% 4,000,000 10% 2,000,000 5% ,540,830 Immigrants 356,000 Non-permanent residents 0% Source: Statistics Canada Diversity projections

15 Nearly One third of Immigrants have been in Canada less than 10 years Immigrants by Period of Immigration, Canada, 2011 Before % 12.1% 19.7% 12.3% 14.0% 16.1% 1,941, ,600 1,486, ,900 1,056,100 1,212, % 100.0% 7,540,830 Immigrants 356,000 Non-permanent residents

16 Toronto and Vancouver account for half of all immigrants to Canada Distribution of Total Population and Total Immigrants, Canada, 2016 Percent of Canadian Population Percent of Immigrants in Canada Toronto CMA 17 % Toronto CMA 36 % Montreal CMA 12 Montreal CMA 12 Vancouver CMA 7 Vancouver CMA 13 Next largest 7 CMAs* 20 Next largest 7 CMAs* 20 Rest of Canada 45 Rest of Canada 19 * Calgary, Ottawa-Gatineau, Edmonton, Hamilton, Winnipeg, Kitchener, London

17 Immigrants spreading across the country Immigrants by Province, Canada Ontario Quebec Alberta British Columbia Manitoba Saskatchewan Nova Scotia New Brunswick Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Immigrants , , , ,600 63,200 47,900 11,800 9,300 3,700 3,400 % Change from Total Canada : 1,212, % increase

18 12 larger CMAs areas have more than 20% of immigrants Percent of Population Immigrants, CMAs, 2016, Canada Toronto Vancouver Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Hamilton Winnipeg Edmonton Montréal Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo Windsor Guelph %

19 Africa surpasses Europe as source of immigrants Immigrants by Period of Immigration and Source Region (%), 2016, Canada Europe US and Oceania 6 South/Central America and Caribbean % Africa Asia Before

20 89 countries with 10,000 or more immigrants Top Countries for Total Immigrants, 100,000 or More, 2016 India 668,600 Percent in Last 10 Years 39.9 Iran 154,400 Percent in Last 10 Years 44.7 China Philippines United Kingdom United States Italy 649, , , , , Poland Germany Portugal Jamaica 146, , , , Hong Kong 208, Sri Lanka 132, Pakistan 202, Korea, South 123, Viet Nam 169, France 105, Total immigrants 7,540,825; percent in last 10 years 30.1 %

21 Large increases in immigrants from Iran, France and Philippines; 30,000 immigrants from Syria Number of Immigrants By Country of Origin, Canada Philippines India 188, , Percent change in Immigrants compared to Immigrants China 129, Iran 42, Pakistan 41, United States 33, Total Canada 1,212, % Syria 29, United Kingdom 24, France 24, Korea, South 21, Iraq 20,

22 Most immigrants speak English or French at home Percent of Immigrants Who Speak English or French Most Often or Regularly at Home, 2016, Canada Total on top % Speaks English or French regularly at home Speaks English or French most often at home All Immigrants Before

23 Over 40 percent are first or second generation Number and Percentage Change of Foreign-born Population by Generation, , Canada Population 2016 (Millions) 34.5 Percentage Growth Third generation or more % First generation % Second generation % 4.9 Total generations 13.9 First generation 7.0 Second generation 1.0 Third generation or more

24 Nearly 80% of Toronto Cma are first or second generation Percent of Population by Generation, Canada, 2016 CMAs of 200,000 pop or more Toronto % London % Vancouver Calgary Hamilton Edmonton First generation Second generation Total at end Oshawa Montréal Canada St. Catharines - Niagara Ottawa - Gatineau Windsor K-C-W Winnipeg Victoria Regina Saskatoon Halifax Sherbrooke Québec K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo

25 Incomes increase with length of time in Canada Median Individual Total Income, 2015 Canada $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Non-immigrants Before 1981 $ Age Groups Source: 2016 Census

26 Higher level of immigrants with low incomes, but declines with length of time in Canada Percent of Population in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada % % Total Non-immigrants Immigrants Before

27 Nearly 70% of Eligible immigrants are citizens Immigrants Before 2012 by Citizenship, 2016, Canada Citizens of Canada and at least one other country 16.8% Not Canadian citizens 14.2% Citizens of Canada only 69.0%

28 High level of citizenship after 15 years in Canada Percent of Immigrants with Canadian Citizenship, 2016, Canada % Total on top Canadian only Canadian and other Before

29 Population Group/Visible Minority Status 29

30 Nearly 1 in 5 are members of a visible minority group Number and Proportion of Visible Minority Population in Canada, 1981 to 2036 Millions Number 11.2 Percentage Actual 22.3 Projected % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % 2016 Visible Minority Population 7,674,580 Sources: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population Release, and Diversity: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036 (reference scenario).

31 Nearly 1 in 5 are members of a visible minority group Number and Proportion of Visible Minority Population in Canada, 1981 to 2036 Millions Number 11.2 Percentage Actual 22.3 Projected % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % 2016 Visible Minority Population 7,674,580 Sources: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population Release, and Diversity: Population Projections for Canada and its Regions, 2011 to 2036 (reference scenario).

32 Visible minority now a majority in Toronto CMA Percent of the Population Visible Minority, CMAs, 2016, Canada Toronto 51 % Ottawa - Gatineau 22 % Vancouver 49 Windsor 20 Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Edmonton Winnipeg K - C - W Hamilton Regina Oshawa Saskatoon Montréal 23 Guelph 17 Canada 22 London 16 K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo

33 The Minority is now a majority in 12 municipalities Percentage of Population Visible Minority, Census Subdivisions, 2016 Markham Richmond Brampton Greater Vancouver A Burnaby Richmond Hill Surrey Mississauga Ajax Vancouver Toronto Coquitlam %

34 34

35 Visible minority population will continue to increase Percent of the Population Visible Minority, CMAs, 2016, Canada Toronto Vancouver Calgary Abbotsford - Mission Edmonton Winnipeg Montréal Canada % 2016 Ottawa - Gatineau Projected 2036 % Windsor K - C - W Hamilton Regina Oshawa Saskatoon Guelph London % K-C-W is Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo

36 Visible minority population numbers 7.6 million Visible Minority Population, 2016, Canada Percent 2+ Generations, 2016, Canada South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Arab Latin American Southeast Asian West Asian Multiple visible minorities Korean Visible minority, n.i.e. Japanese 1,924,600 1,577,100 1,198, , , , , , , , ,100 92,900 count South Asian Chinese Black Filipino Arab Latin American Southeast Asian West Asian Multiple visible minorities Korean Visible minority, n.i.e. Japanese 31 %

37 Different mix of diversity across the country Largest Visible Minority Groups, Selected CMAs, 2016 Toronto Montréal Vancouver Calgary Ottawa - Gatineau Edmonton Winnipeg Hamilton South Asian Black Chinese South Asian Black South Asian Filipino South Asian Chinese Arab South Asian Chinese Arab Filipino South Asian Black Black Latin American Filipino Filipino Chinese Chinese Black Chinese 37

38 38

39 More diversity at younger ages Percent of Population Visible Minority by Generation, 2016, Canada First generation 2+ generations Total on top % All ages Age Groups

40 Most groups index below average on individual income, but second generation shows improvement Index of Median Individual Income, Population Aged 25-54, 2015, Canada (Total Population Aged =100) Not a visible minority Filipino Black Latin American Southeast Asian South Asian Chinese Japanese Arab Korean West Asian First Generation Index Chinese Japanese Not a visible minority Korean South Asian Filipino Arab Southeast Asian Black West Asian Latin American Second Generation Index Median income for total population $43,300

41 Aboriginal Questions 41

42 Enumeration of Aboriginal Population 14 Reserves not enumerated in Reserves not enumerated in census in Reserves in Census Division of Kenora, Ontario, enumerated later as a result of fires 42

43 Close to 1.7 million aboriginal peoples in Canada Percent and Population, Aboriginal, 2016, Canada First Nations (North American Indian) 977,235 58% Métis 587,545 35% Total Aboriginal Population 1,673,780 Other 43,975 3% Inuk (Inuit) 65,025 4%

44 Diversity within the aboriginal population Aboriginal Identity First Nations North American Indian First Nations Registered or Treaty Indian, 2016, Canada Off reserve 1,334,190 80% On reserve 339,595 20% Off reserve 642,845 66% On reserve 334,385 34% Off reserve 415,500 56% On reserve 329,300 44% Total aboriginal population 1,673,780 Total First Nations 977,235 Total First Nations Registered or Treaty Indian Status 744,900

45 A large majority of aboriginal population live off reserve Aboriginal Population, 2016, Canada On Reserve Off Reserve 1,334, , ,595 47, , ,350 Total Urban (CMA/CA) Rural Total Aboriginal Identity Population 1,673,800

46 Aboriginal population increases by 20 percent Population Growth, Canada Population Growth, % % Aboriginal Population Total Population First Nations (North American Indian) Métis Inuk (Inuit) and 2011 National Household Survey

47 Visible minority and aboriginal populations account for all of total population growth Population Growth , Canada % 4.9 Total population Visible minority population Aboriginal population -0.3 Rest of population Population (millions)

48 Ontario has largest Aboriginal population, but Manitoba and Quebec have highest concentrations outside the North Total Aboriginal Population (000s), 2016, Canada Count in 000s Ontario British Columbia Alberta Manitoba Quebec Saskatchewan Nova Scotia Newfoundland and Labrador Nunavut New Brunswick Northwest Territories Yukon Prince Edward Island On reserve Off reserve Total at end % of Total Pop ON BC (000s) On reserve Off reserve Total Aboriginal Pop Canada 340 1,334 1,674 (4.9%) 6.5 AB 18.0 MB 2.3 QC 16.3 SK 5.7 NS 8.9 NL 85.9 NU 4.0 NB 50.7 NT 23.3 YK 2.0 PE

49 Aboriginal population in Winnipeg Nearly 100,000 Urban Areas (CMA/CA) with at least 10,000 Aboriginal Population, 2016, Canada Winnipeg Edmonton 92,800 76, Percent of Total Population Prince Albert Halifax 16,800 15, Percent of Total Population Vancouver 61, Greater Sudbury 15, Toronto 46, Thunder Bay 15, Calgary 41, Hamilton 14, Ottawa - Gatineau 38, Prince George 12, Montréal 34, London 12, Saskatoon 31, St. Catharines - Niagara 11, Regina 21, Québec 11, Victoria 17, Kelowna 11, Kamloops 10,

50 A much younger aboriginal population Age Distribution, Canada, 2016 Aboriginal Population 26.8% 16.9% 38.9% 10.1% 7.3% Age Age % 100.0% Non-Aboriginal Population 16.4% 12.0% 40.9% 14.3% 16.3% Age Age 65+

51 aboriginal population is also aging Percent Growth of Aboriginal Population, , Canada % Total - all ages Age Groups

52 Less than 60 percent of aboriginal children live with two parents Living Arrangements of Aboriginal Children Aged 0-14, 2016, Canada Aboriginal Children Living with Others Loneparents 35% With others 8% Two parents 57% Living with grandparents (no parents present) Number Percent 12, % Living with other relatives 6, % Foster children 14, % Total Aboriginal Identity Population 1,673,800

53 Aboriginal population have lower levels of individual income Median Individual Income, Canada, 2016 Aboriginal identity Non-aboriginal $ ,900 47,500 25,500 34,600 28,400 37,100 37,800 36,700 31,600 40,600 22,400 27,500 10,200 11,600 All ages Age Groups

54 Aboriginal population has higher level of low income Percent of Aboriginal Population (excluding reserves and the North) Living in Low-income Households, 2015, Canada 30.4 % % Aboriginal Non Aboriginal Age Groups

55 Metis population has median income close to non-aboriginal population 43,700 Median Income Ages 25-54, 2015, Canada 41,500 Percentage Prevalence of Low-income (%), Excluding Reserves and the North, 2015, Canada 30 $ ,700 32,800 % Non-Aboriginal identity First Nations (North American Indian) Métis Inuk (Inuit) Non-Aboriginal identity First Nations (North American Indian) Métis Inuk (Inuit)

56 Housing conditions remain poor, especially on reserve and in Inuit communities Percent of Aboriginal Population Living in Dwellings Considered "Unsuitable", Canada % 10.0 % % 8.5 Aboriginal Non-aboriginal On reserve Off reserve First Nations Metis Inuit

57 Many dwellings in need of major repair; especially on reserves and in Inuit communities Percent of Population Living in Dwellings in Need of Major Repair, 2016, Canada Aboriginal Non-aboriginal % % 13.2 % On reserve Off reserve First Nations Metis Inuit

58 Housing

59 Housing Variables Dwelling Characteristics Tenure Subsidized Type of dwelling Number of rooms/bedrooms Financial Presence of mortgage Shelter costs Shelter costs/income ratio (30%) Condo status Period of construction Value of dwelling Condition of dwelling (need of repairs) Suitability (National Occupancy Standard)

60 Over two thirds of dwellings are owner occupied; 60 percent of owners have mortgages; 13 percent of rental housing is subsidized Home Ownership, 2016, Canada Mortgages, 2016, Canada Subsidized Rental Housing, Canada, 2016 Renter 4,452,850 32% Owner 9,368,330 68% Without mortgage 3,680,875 39% With mortgage 5,687,455 61% Not subsidized housing 3,876,140 87% Subsidized housing 576,710 13% Total Dwellings 13,821,180 Total Owners 9,368,330 Total Renters 4,452,850

61 Home ownership level drops for first time in 10 years Percentage Home Ownership, Canada % Source: Statistics Canada, various censuses

62 Home ownership drops at all ages except seniors Percent Homeowners, Canada % Total and over Source: Statistics Canada, 2006,2011 and 2016 Census

63 Home ownership varies across the country Home Ownership in CMAs, 2016, Canada Oshawa Not a CMA/CA Barrie Kelowna Calgary St. Catharines Niagara Brantford Thunder Bay Windsor Abbotsford Mission Lethbridge Peterborough Highest 77.8 Lowest % Toronto Greater Sudbury Kingston Saguenay London Vancouver Victoria Québec Halifax Trois-Rivières Sherbrooke Montréal %

64 Over half of all dwellings are single-detached... Number of Dwellings, ,072, 080 Population in Private Dwellings 34,460, 060 Singledetached house 54% Apartment, building that has five or more storeys 10% Singledetached house 60% Apartment, building that has five or more storeys 7% Other 37% Other 33% 64

65 ... But much higher growth for high-rise apartments Growth in Number of Dwellings by Type, Canada % Total Single-detached Apartment 5 or more storeys Other 751, , , ,900 Growth Source: Statistics Canada, 2006, Census 65

66 Nearly a third of recently constructed dwellings are condos Percent of Dwellings that are Condominiums, 2016, Canada Condos % Rented 33% Owned, 67% Total 1920 or before Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census and 2016 Census

67 Increasingly, condos are hi-rise Percent of Condominiums that are Hi-rise by Period of Construction, 2016, Canada % Total 1920 or before

68 Nearly one-third of Vancouver dwellings are condos Percent Share of Dwellings that are Condominiums by Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), 2016 Vancouver 30.6 % Montréal 16.0 % Calgary 21.8 Québec 14.6 Abbotsford Mission 21.5 Ottawa Gatineau 14.0 Kelowna 21.3 Guelph 13.7 Toronto 20.9 Regina 13.4 Edmonton 19.8 Canada 13.3 Victoria 18.4 Hamilton 13.0 Saskatoon 17.6 London 12.3 K-C-W 10.9 K-C-W is Kitchener Cambridge Waterloo

69 Young and old homeowners most likely to live in condos Percent of Homeowners Living in Condominiums by Age Group, 2016, Canada Hi-rise Other % Total - all ages Age of primary household maintainer

70 Home values highest in Toronto, Vancouver and Victoria Vancouver Toronto Victoria Kelowna Calgary Abbotsford Mission Hamilton Guelph Oshawa Canada Edmonton Barrie Ottawa Gatineau K-C-W Saskatoon Regina Montréal Kingston Average Self-reported Home Value (2015$), CMAs, 2016, Canada 1,005, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,800 $ 45.5 % 48.4 K-C-W is Kitchener Cambridge Waterloo Percentage Change in Average Home Value, CMAs, , Canada Vancouver Toronto Victoria Kelowna Calgary Abbotsford Mission Hamilton Guelph Oshawa Canada Edmonton Barrie Ottawa Gatineau K-C-W Saskatoon Regina Montréal Kingston

71 Young homeowners have highest shelter costs Percent of Owners Paying 30% or More of Income on Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Owner 2006 Owner % All All Ages ages Age Groups

72 Younger and older renters have highest shelter costs Percent of Renters Paying 30% or More of Income on Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Renter 2006 Renter % All All ages Ages Age Groups

73 High shelter costs for lone parents and persons living alone Percent of Households Paying 30% or More on Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Total households 23.6 % One-person 40.4 Lone-parent Non-family 2 or more persons Couple with children Multiple family Couple without children Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census and 2016 Census

74 Unattached Seniors pay the most in Shelter Costs Seniors Paying More Than 30 % of Income for Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Total Owners Renters 60.5 % % % Total Couple Living alone Total Couple Living alone Total Couple Living alone

75 Nearly a third of all households in Toronto and Vancouver have high shelter costs Percent of Households that Paid 30% or More of Household Total Income Towards Shelter Costs, 2016, Canada Toronto Vancouver Victoria Barrie Peterborough Kelowna Kingston London Abbotsford Mission St. Catharines Niagara Hamilton Halifax Oshawa Belleville Montréal Canada Kitchener Cambridge Waterloo Guelph Saskatoon % Brantford Ottawa Gatineau Regina Windsor Edmonton Calgary St. John's Greater Sudbury Sherbrooke Winnipeg Census agglomeration (CA) Lethbridge Moncton Thunder Bay Trois-Rivières Saint John Québec Not a CMA/CA Saguenay %

76 What s still to come 76

77 Final Census Release November 29,2017 Labour Journey to work Language of work Mobility and migration 77

78 What s Ahead for Environics Analytics DemoStats 2017 DemoStats released Based on 2011 Census geography Based on 2011 Census 2018 DemoStats released at end of March Shift to 2016 Census geography Still based on 2011 Census, but will incorporate some trends from DemoStats released at end of March Built with 2016 Census-based estimates adjusted for 2016 coverage Update to PRIZM5 based on 2016 Census and other data 78

79 Questions Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer