3 The Middle East. Basic Facts. Should the U.S. promote a regime change in Iraq, or should it work with the government of Saddam Hussein?

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1 3 The Middle East Should the U.S. promote a regime change in Iraq, or should it work with the government of Saddam Hussein? Should the U.S. ease sanctions on Iran? How strongly should the U.S. pressure its regional allies to make democratic reforms and observe human rights? How much assistance should the U.S. be prepared to provide in the context of an Arab- Israeli peace settlement? Basic Facts Since 1979, the U.S. has provided $100 billion to support peace between Israel and Egypt. Israel and the Palestinians are committed to reaching a final peace settlement by September 13, The death of Syrian president Hafez al-assad on June 10, 2000, and the succession of his son, Bashar, led to new uncertainty in the peace process. Some 65% of the world s known oil reserves are located in the Persian Gulf states; 8.5% are located in 31

2 David Lada Caspian Sea TURKEY Mediterranean Sea Persian Gulf Red Sea Atlantic Ocean MOROCCO ALGERIA MAURITANIA MALI SENEGAL GAMBIA GUI. BIS. BURKINA FASO GUINEA NIGER TUNISIA LEBANON ISRAEL Black Sea LIBYA Chad EGYPT SAUDI ARABIA OMAN Indian Ocean YEMEN FRANCE Spain Portugal WESTERN SAHARA ITALY CROATIA BOSN. & HERZOG. GREECE ROMANIA YUGO. BULGARIA MACED. ALB. CYPRUS SYRIA RUSSIA GEORGIA ARMENIA IRAQ AZERBAIJAN IRAN KAZAKHSTAN UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN AFGHANISTAN Golan Heights West Bank LEBANON Mediterranean Sea Dead Sea ISRAEL SYRIA Sea of Galilee JORDAN SUDAN JORDAN KUWAIT BAHRAIN QATAR UNITED ARAB EMIRATES PAKISTAN 0 Miles 500 EGYPT ERITREA DJI. ETHIOPIA SOMALIA 32 Middle East

3 North America. Over half of U.S. oil now comes from imports, as opposed to one third at the time of the oil shocks in 1973 and For the first time since the Iranian revolution 21 years ago, a Parliament dominated by reformers (who hold two thirds of 290 seats) took office in May An embargo imposed in 1995 prohibits practically all trade between the U.S. and Iran. Background Since World War II, U.S. policymakers have considered the Middle East to be of vital importance to American interests. The central U.S. concerns included containing Soviet influence, securing access to Persian Gulf oil, and supporting Israel s right to exist in peace with its Arab neighbors. With the end of the cold war and progress in the Arab-Israeli peace process, the main goals of U.S. policy in the region for the past half-century have been achieved and its strategic importance has been reduced. Meanwhile, though, new concerns have arisen, particularly to combat terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In the 10 years since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the Middle East has experienced many changes. In the wake of the war, in which a U.S.-led military coalition expelled the Iraqi forces, the U.S. has become the dominant external force in the Persian Gulf and the undisputed superpower of the region. But at the same time the limits of Washington s ability to force policy changes on small states (such as Iraq or Israel) is increasingly apparent. The Middle East at the turn of the millennium is in a process of transition as the goals of a new generation increasingly displace the concerns of their elders. In 1999 new rulers took over in Jordan, Bahrain and Morocco, and many longtime leaders are in poor health, Middle East 33

4 including King Fahd of Saudi Arabia and Yasir Arafat, chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The death of Assad after 30 years in power was another reminder that the Middle East soon will have a different lineup of leadership. The elections of Mohammad Khatami in Iran in 1997 and Ehud Barak in Israel in 1999 herald the changes ahead. On a positive note, one of the most intractable conflicts in the region, that between Palestinians and Israelis, is in the process of resolution, and the end of a bitter 15-year struggle between the Kurds and the Turkish government may now be at hand. There is a new détente in the Persian Gulf between Iran and most Arab states on its southern shore, notably Saudi Arabia. Thanks to new communication technologies such as the Internet, fax machines and satellite television, people in the region are much better informed and governments no longer hold a monopoly on information. This has led to increased pressure for political reform and democratization, as well as greater Western cultural penetration. On a negative note, the region s political leadership is often criticized for repression, corruption, inefficiency and a lack of respect for minorities. A major question is the future of Iraq, where Saddam Hussein continues to exercise one-man rule. In Iran, the revolution continues. The majority of the population has voted for the reform program of President Khatami, but a bitter struggle is now taking place there as hard-liners who are ideologically opposed to reform, and who benefit financially from the current system, have sought to delay or deny the popular will. Throughout the region, political disputes and weak leadership are obscuring the serious underlying problems that must be faced soon, including the lack of water resources, rapid population growth, high unemployment, a weak civil society, the need for economic liberalization and a lack of political participation. Many oil-producing states count on high prices to support 34 Middle East

5 their economies, but these have fluctuated greatly in the past few years, from the low teens in 1998 to over $31 a barrel by mid-june Arab-Israeli conflict After a century of tension and conflict, first between Arab nationalists and Zionists, and later between Palestinians and Israelis, the peace process now seems irreversible. While only Israel can grant the Palestinians what they want, namely statehood, only neighboring Arab states can give Israel what it wants, namely secure peace and regional acceptance, including the exchange of diplomats and an end to the economic boycott. Polls show that a majority of Israelis approve of making concessions to the Palestinians to achieve peace. The Six-Day War in June 1967 was a political turning point for the Middle East. Israel captured the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) from Jordan; the Gaza Strip and Sinai from Egypt; and the Golan Heights from Syria. UN Security Council Resolution 242 of November 1967 called for Israel to give up territories it had captured in return for Arab recognition of its right to exist within secure borders. The territory for peace formula established the premise for future negotiations; however, many Arabs argue that all the territories should be relinquished whereas many Israelis insist that parts of the West Bank or Golan Heights should be retained on grounds of security or historic right. American mediation has been a key element of the peace process for over two decades. The groundwork for the recent accords between Israel and the PLO was laid at Camp David, Maryland, in At that time President Jimmy Carter persuaded Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin to sign two major agreements: one provided for Israeli withdrawal from Sinai and an Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty; and the other, never implemented, was a framework for Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Middle East 35

6 In the years after Camp David, the Arab-Israeli dispute was put on the back burner as the U.S. was preoccupied with the Iranian revolution and hostage crisis ( ), the war between Iraq and Iran ( ) and the Desert Storm campaign to evict Iraqi forces from Kuwait ( ). Israel invaded Lebanon in June 1982 to expel the PLO, and established a security zone in southern Lebanon, which its forces patrolled to guarantee the security of northern Israel. Mounting Palestinian frustration at the lack of peace resulted in the outbreak of a major uprising, or intifada, in the West Bank and Gaza in December The Iraqi defeat in the Persian Gulf war, and the end of the cold war, led to a new attempt at peacemaking. Secretary of States James A. Baker 3d convened an unprecedented conference in Madrid, Spain, in the fall of 1991, where Israel, the Palestinians and neighboring Arab states held direct talks. Secret negotiations in Oslo, Norway, between Israel and the PLO led to the signing of the landmark Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements at the White House in September The declaration called for a five-year period of limited autonomy for Palestinians in the occupied territories and, after local elections, negotiations for a permanent settlement. A peace treaty with Jordan followed in The accords led to an upsurge of optimism, which was dashed by the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yizhak Rabin in November 1995 and a lack of trust between the Benjamin Netanyahu government ( ) and the Palestinian Authority, led by Arafat, which governs the returned territories. The election of Barak as prime minister of Israel in May 1999 rekindled the peace process. An accord reached that September committed the Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate a conceptual framework for a permanent settlement by February 2000, with a final peace accord to be achieved by September. This would include sensitive final status issues such as the ques- 36 Middle East

7 tion of Palestinian statehood, sovereignty over Jerusalem, the disposition of Israeli settlements and the return of Palestinian refugees. The parties were not able to meet the February target date. If progress has not been made by September, Arafat has threatened to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state. Both Barak, who presides over a broad coalition government, and Arafat have had trouble holding their political constituencies together. Despite a resumption of Israel-Syria peace talks in December 1999 after a four-year hiatus, progress has stalled over Israel s refusal to concede to Syria s key demand for a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights down to the Sea of Galilee. There will likely be a further delay as the new Syrian president tries to consolidate power. Israel unilaterally withdrew from Lebanon on May 23, 2000, despite a lack of agreement with Syria. Hezbollah, or the Party of God, a Shiite guerrilla group backed by Syria and Iran, reclaimed the zone in southern Lebanon formerly occupied by the Israelis. Many believe that the self-imposed deadlines have been a mistake. They have been missed regularly, however, and the important thing is that the peace process moves ahead as both sides realize there is no alternative. Palestinian statehood is recognized as inevitable by Israelis, although Arafat has not prepared Palestinian public opinion for the concessions that will have to be made to close a deal. American mediation also remains critical to the peace process, and all the players regard this year as critical to wrapping up an agreement. The Persian Gulf The principal importance of the Persian Gulf stems from its massive deposits of oil and gas; 65% of the world s known reserves are located there. Saudi Arabia ranks first in reserves, with 259 billion barrels, followed by Iraq (112 billion), the United Arab Emirates (98 billion), Kuwait (94 billion) and Iran (93 billion). The Gulf also figures in a number of other American foreign Middle East 37

8 policy concerns, including the Arab-Israeli peace process, the growth of political Islam, terrorism, the conventional arms race and the spread of WMD. After World War II, the U.S. became the dominant external force in Iran and Saudi Arabia as the Soviets gained influence in Iraq. Britain remained the predominant naval power in the Gulf and the main influence on the small Arabian peninsula states until it withdrew in After the British withdrawal, Washington relied on the twin pillars, Iran and Saudi Arabia, to keep the oil flowing and oppose Soviet inroads. The Iranian revolution and the fall of the shah in January 1979 created a power vacuum in the Gulf. The loss of Iran, combined with the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan in December 1979, led the Carter Administration to regard the region as a crescent of crisis. In a January 1980 address to Congress, the U.S. President warned the Soviet Union that an attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be repelled by the use of any means necessary, including military force. It soon became clear, however, that the major threat to stability did not come from the Soviet Union but from two major regional wars, the Iran-Iraq War and the Persian Gulf war. The wars were immensely destructive in terms of casualties and infrastructure, and they raised the level of distrust among people in the littoral states. The first war carried an undertone of ethnic (Arab vs. Persian) and religious (Sunni vs. Shiite) hostility, whereas the second pitted Arab against Arab, giving the lie to decades of rhetoric about pan-arab solidarity. These wars focused international attention on the Gulf and prompted the U.S. to an unprecedented level of military involvement in the region. Iraq s invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, altered political alignments in the Middle East, imperiled world energy supplies, and confronted the U.S. and U.S.S.R. with a major international crisis. President George Bush declared that the acquisition of territory 38 Middle East

9 Reprinted with special permission of King Features Syndicate by force is unacceptable, and rallied an international coalition which evicted the Iraqi forces in a 100-hour ground assault, Desert Storm, in February Although the ruling Al-Sabah family was restored in Kuwait, Saddam Hussein has defied expectations by continuing to rule and surviving a decade of punitive sanctions imposed by the UN. The privation has led to an alarming rate of child mortality and decimated Iraq s middle class. There is at present no realistic prospect that the Iraqi opposition can overthrow the government, and international support for sanctions is weakening. (See UN topic) In Iran, three years after the election of President Mohammad Khatami a bitter struggle continues between reformers, who back Khatami s call for law, tolerance and increased freedoms, and hard-liners, who resist change and are allied with the country s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranians have now voted overwhelmingly for change in several major elections, the most recent in February 2000 to elect a new Parliament. Reformers captured a large majority for the first time, yet they may continue to be frustrated in the short run. Discontent with the outcome of the revolution runs deep, with the country s economy in poor shape, the clo- Middle East 39

10 sure in the spring of 2000 of most reformist newspapers, widespread corruption and petty restrictions on lifestyles, including mandatory veils for women. Widespread antigovernment rioting in Tehran, the nation s capital, in the summer of 1999 put the government on warning that peoples patience was wearing thin. Many regard Khatami as Iran s last hope, the only one who can save the Islamic form of government by reforming it. Despite the rapid economic development that has transformed the Arab Gulf states over the past few decades, they lag behind much of the world in terms of political liberalization, while their economies have serious structural problems. The Gulf monarchs have staked their future on continued high prices for oil, and were badly shaken when prices plunged in Since the second Gulf war, all the states have been confronted with rising unemployment and demands for more political participation. So far, they show little willingness to undertake the reforms needed. Administration Policy In the past, major advances in the peace process were achieved with active American intervention; this will likely continue to be the case as negotiations for a final settlement continue. In the Persian Gulf, however, there is a sense of unfinished business as the U.S. remains estranged from the two largest states, Iran and Iraq. U.S. forces protect the Arabian peninsula monarchies, which has exacerbated internal criticism of their rulers. A plan for the long-term security of the Gulf is still needed. The policies of President Clinton toward Middle East peace are very much in line with those of previous Administrations. The U.S. has strongly supported Barak s goal of concluding negotiations this year, and has worked actively to bring the two sides together, as well as to draw Syria into the peace process. It wants to leave the outcome of the final-status issues to the parties themselves, however, and therefore has not taken a position 40 Middle East

11 on sensitive issues such as whether there should be a Palestinian state or if Jerusalem should be the capital of Israel. One issue yet to be addressed is the cost to the U.S. of a final settlement. With regard to Iran, the slow warming of relations that has taken place under the Khatami presidency hit a snag over the show trial in May 2000 of 13 Iranian Jews on trumped-up charges of spying for Israel. Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright had made a conciliatory speech toward Iran last March. In an overture to moderate forces there, she ended a few minor sanctions on Iranian products such as carpets, and acknowledged past errors in U.S. policy toward Iran, including support of the 1953 coup, which restored the shah to power. However, she reiterated longstanding U.S. concerns that block the way to normal relations, including Iran s support for terrorism, attempts to acquire nuclear weapons, and obstruction of the peace process. Major sanctions that the U.S. imposed on Iran in 1995 and 1996, which prohibit practically all trade with Iran and penalize investment in Iran s energy industry, remain in place. This has led to complaints by American companies that they are being prevented from doing business with Iran and cannot consider an Iranian route for the export of Caspian energy. Until the power struggle between reformers and hard-line clerics is resolved, a U.S.-Iran reconciliation will be limited. Dealing with Iraq still bedevils policymakers, and the Administration s policy has generated considerable debate and criticism. The U.S. seeks to force Iraq to comply with agreements it made at the end of the Gulf war to disclose the extent of its programs to develop WMD and ballistic missiles and to dismantle them. It also agreed to long-term monitoring by the UN. However, UN monitors were withdrawn in December 1998 in advance of a U.S.-British bombing attack. In April 2000 the Security Council created a new armsinspection agency which hopes to resume work later this year. (See UN topic) Middle East 41

12 Sanctions have not led to the fall of Saddam Hussein or full disclosure of Iraq s weapons programs, and have led to widespread hardship for Iraqis. Support for sanctions on the part of other UN Security Council members such as Russia, France and China is weakening. In recognition of this hardship, Iraq is now permitted to sell as much oil as it wants, although some of the proceeds are garnisheed by the UN to repay victims of the war and reimburse the peacekeepers. The U.S. also enforces no-fly zones for Iraqi aircraft in the north and south of the country, to protect Kurdish and Shia opponents of the government, and the Administration has made the replacement of Saddam s government a necessary condition for an easing of the sanctions. Relations with the Persian Gulf monarchies are very good, and U.S. forces remain in the region at their invitation. The U.S. also depends on the continued export of their oil, although not as much as Europe or Japan. However, while American forces can protect these states from external aggression, a strong case can be made that over the long term the real threat to their stability is internal. One question is whether the U.S. should exert greater pressure on its Persian Gulf allies to make political and economic reforms and show greater respect for human rights, including women s rights, and the free flow of information. Policy Options 1. U.S. Relations with Iran p a. The U.S. should lift its economic sanctions on Iran to help U.S. business and to bolster Iranian moderates. or p b. The U.S. should maintain its virtual ban on conducting business with Iran until the country proves it no longer engages in terrorism, ends its 42 Middle East

13 efforts to obtain nuclear weapons and supports the peace process. 2. Policy Toward Iraq p a. The UN should lift sanctions against Iraq and the U.S. should stop enforcing no-fly zones because these policies have led to a humanitarian disaster in the country and done little, if anything, to weaken Saddam Hussein s regime. or p b. The UN and the U.S. must keep the pressure on Iraq in order to prevent the development of weapons of mass destruction and to discourage Saddam from once again threatening his neighbors. 3. Peace Process p p a. In the context of a settlement, the U.S. should be willing to provide significant funds to Israel and a potential Palestinian state. or b. U.S. contributions should be proportional to those of other countries who also have a stake in the outcome. Select Bibliography The Middle East. Current History, January Entire issue devoted to a review of recent developments, including the peace process and the information revolution. Potter, Lawrence G., The Middle East at the Millennium. Great Decisions 2000, pp New York, Foreign Policy Association, Specialist discusses how that region fared in the last century and assesses current issues and likely prospects., The Persian Gulf in Transition. Headline Series No New York, Foreign Policy Association, pp. Explains the historic and strate- Middle East 43

14 gic importance of the Gulf and provides an assessment of current regional tensions and their effect on U.S. policymaking. Sick, Gary, The Coming Crisis in the Persian Gulf. The Washington Quarterly, Spring 1998, pp Outlines a slow-motion crisis arising from the domestic policies of the Arab Gulf states. Select Resources THE GULF/2000 PROJECT A major research and documentation project on the Persian Gulf states based at Columbia University. U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT, website on The Middle East Peace Process. ishome.html 44 Middle East