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1 Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios Hein de Haas heindehaas.org 17 January 2017 Speaker 1
2 Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration
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4 17 January 2017 Hein de Haas 4
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7 Source: Centre for Global Development
8 Source: Pew Research Center
9 Neither exodus, nor invasion So, what has changed?
10 ,000,000 EU25 and US immigration, yearly, ,500,000 2,000,000 EU25 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 US - Source: Hein de Haas, Simona Vezzoli and María Villares-Varela (2016 forthcoming) Trend and patterns of international migration DEMIG working paper. Based on DEMIG C2C data.
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19 Migratie als veiligheidsgevaar Migration as a threat to security (Map produced by Netherlands Ministry of Defence) Mondiale zekerheden en waarschijnlijkheden - Eindrapport 19 Verkenningen Houvast voor de krijgsmacht van de toekomst 2010, Netherlands Ministry of Defence
20 Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 20
21 Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 21
22 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
23 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
24 How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
25 How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
26 How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence Visas introduced It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
27 How the Dutch government stimulated unwanted migration from Suriname Independence Visas introduced It s now or never!!! Immigration from Suriname Returns Source: Simona Vezzoli (2014) The evolution of Surinamese emigration across and beyond independence: the role of origin and destination states. DEMIG Working Paper.
28 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
29 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
30 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
31 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
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34 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion 5.Increased role of smuggling Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
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36 25 years of Fortress Europe A lethal vicious circle.
37 Substitution effects Unintended consequences of immigration restrictions 1.Category jumping 2. Now or never migration 3.Interrupting circulation 4.Geographical diversion 5.Increased role of smuggling Source: Hein de Haas (2011) The determinants of international migration: conceptualizing policy, origin and destination effects. DEMIG Working Paper #2
38 Moroccan emigration to OECD countries Recruitment stop Visa regimes S-Europe Global economic crisis DEMIG C2C database - Estimation de l' émigration basée sur les chiffres d'ímmigration des pays de destination: FR, BE, NL, IT, ES, DE, DK, NO, FI, AT, CH, US, CA, AU Ligne rouge = moyenne glissante sur 4 ans
39 The migration policy paradox
40 The migration policy paradox 60 Percentage of population abroad Guyana Suriname Source: Vezzoli 2015
41 The migration policy paradox 60 Percentage of population abroad French Guiana Guyana Suriname Source: Vezzoli 2015
42 ,000,000 EU25 migration trends The migration policy paradox 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Immigration
43 ,000,000 EU25 migration trends The migration policy paradox 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Immigration Emigration
44 ,000,000 EU25 migration trends The migration policy paradox 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Immigration Emigration Within EU25
45 Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 45
46 Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 3. Development will reduce migration 46
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48 Migration as the anti-thesis of development?
49 Percentage of population The developmental drivers of migration Immigrants Very low Low Middle High Very high Human development index (HDI) Source: de Haas, Hein Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford 49
50 Percentage of population The developmental drivers of migration Emigrants Immigrants Very low Low Middle High Very high Human development index (HDI) Source: de Haas, Hein Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international migration. IMI/DEMIG Working Paper, University of Oxford 50
51 Destination country drivers of migration 51
52 Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 3. Development will reduce migration 52
53 Migration Myths 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 3. Development will reduce migration 4. Migration can solve the ageing problem 53
54 World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Males Population in Millions Females
55 World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in Global Education Trend - Scenario No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Males Population in Millions Females
56 World - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in Global Education Trend - Scenario No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Males Population in Millions Females Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
57 China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Males Population in Thousands Females World Population Proogram IIASA 2009 Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
58 China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in Global Education Trend - Scenario No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Males Population in Thousands Females World Population Proogram IIASA 2009 Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
59 China - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in Global Education Trend - Scenario No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Males Population in Thousands Females World Population Proogram IIASA 2009 Source: Wolfgang Lutz, World Population Program, IIASA 2009
60 Migration Facts 1. We live in times of unprecedented mass migration 60
61 Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high ( neither exodus nor invasion ), and main changes have been directional 61
62 Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Immigration restrictions reduce migration 62
63 Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation, discourage return, push migrants into permanent settlement and encourage smuggling 63
64 Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development will reduce migration 64
65 Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development drives migration by increasing capabilities and aspirations to migrate 65
66 Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development drives migration 4. Migration can solve the ageing problem 66
67 Migration Facts 1. Current global migration is not exceptionally high 2. Restrictions interrupt circulation and create illegality 3. Development drives migration 4. Migration cannot solve ageing and other structural socioeconomic problems 67
68 Migration to Europe drivers, trends and future scenarios Hein de Haas heindehaas.org 17 January 2017 Speaker 68
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