Forecasting skill supply and demand in Europe: Migration
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1 Forecasting skill supply and demand in Europe: Migration SKILLSNET TECHNICAL WORKSHOP June 2010, Thessaloniki, Greece Simonas Gaušas Public Policy and Management Institute, Lithuania
2 Key tasks Main aim of this task is to develop new insights and quantitative estimates, which could enhance the projections of skills supply and demand. Key tasks: 1. Provision of estimates of past and future levels of migration, incl.: Assessment of the past levels of outflows and inflows Analysis of the available findings on the influence of migration on demographic trends, skills supply and replacement demand Provision of estimates of future levels of emigration and immigration 2. Provision of recommendations for projections of the skills supply and demand, focusing on: Eurostat s assumptions on migration trends Recognition and comparability of qualifications Cross-border flows and replacement demand
3 Deliverables and focus of Year 2 Year 2 technical report will include: 1. An overall assessment of levels of past migration to and from EU Member States 2. A draft methodology for estimating the impact of migration on the projections of future supply of skills which will mainly provide implications for future demographic change, future qualifications of labour force and replacement demand Our focus: 2-3 donor and 2-3 recipient countries (countries to be agreed) Only cross-border migration, no within-country mobility Migration to/from EU27 and non-eu countries Only certain modules of the projections Next slide
4 Focus: relevant modules of the project Supply of skills Module 1: Multi-sectoral macroeconomic model (E3ME) Demand for skills Module 5: Stocks of people by qualifications, 3 ISCED levels & by economic status (QUALMOD) Module 6: Flows and graduate numbers by ISCED category (FLOWMOD) Numbers in the population by ISCED category Working age population by age and gender (exogenous) Active labour force by age and gender Labour market participation rates Benefit rates Economic activity Wage rates Unemployment Employment (labour demand) Module 2: Employment levels and Expansion Demand by occupation (EDMOD) Module 3: Employment levels and Expansion Demand by qualification (QUALMOD) Module 4: Replacement demand by occupation / qualification (RDMOD) Numbers in the labour force by ISCED category Module 7: Imbalances (Supply-Demand), 3 ISCED levels (BALMOD) Job openings by Qualification (ISCED category) Job openings by Occupation (ISCO 2 digit)
5 Selection of countries On the basis of the analysis of migrations flows we propose to select the following countries: Donor countries: Lithuania and Poland among the top donors according to three indicators (net migration, crude rate of net migration and working-age population resident in other EU MS) Netherlands only EU15 country among the main senders in according to net migration and crude rate of net migration Recipient countries: Spain: among the top recipients according to net migration and crude rate of net migration, leading country according to total immigration United Kingdom: one of the top-3 recipients according to net migration, among the leading countries in terms of total immigration.
6 Next steps Further efforts in: Collection of statistical data Overview of main drivers of migration incl. operationalisation of push and pull factors of migration Detailed analysis and operationalisation of key migration-related factors affecting future demografic change, future qualifications of the labour force and replacement demand Operationalised factors will provide the basis for i) estimates of the future levels of migration and ii) implications for projections of: Working age population Stocks of people by qualifications Flows and numbers of graduates Replacement demand
7 Contact Details Simonas Gausas Public Policy and Management Institute Gedimino ave. 50, LT Vilnius, Lithuania Tel:
8 Migration a misnomer? (1) DE IT UK ES FR NL AT GR IE SE PL DK CZ LU FI PT SK CY MT LT SI RO LV EE BG Source: Eurostat, 2008 Immigration from EU27 Immigration from non-eu27
9 Migration a misnomer? (2) DE UK PL NL IT FR IE AT ES SE GR DK PT LT LU FI CZ MT RO SI EE LV BG CY SK Source: Eurostat, 2008 Emigration to EU27 Emigration to non-eu27
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