2016 Congressional Election Presentation

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1 2016 Congressional Election Presentation

2 The Race to Control Congress Photo: USCP:FOP

3 114 th Congress House of Representatives 3 2 Senate Republican Democratic Vacancies Republican Democratic Independents

4 114 th Congress Leadership House Speaker Paul Ryan (R:WI) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R:KY) House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D:CA) Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D:NV)

5 Photo: U.S. Senate Senate

6 Senate Current Breakdown: 54R 46D* 2 Number of seats in cycle: 34 Majority: 51 senators or 50 senators + Vice President Number of turnovers needed for Democrats to regain a majority: 5 seats or 4 seats + Vice President Tim Kaine Republican Democratic Independents *The two independent Senators caucus with the Democrats

seats in cycle than do Democrats Current party breakdown of seats in

7 Democratic Advantage: Fourteen More Republican Seats Than Democratic Seats Up This Cycle Republicans have more than double the amount of seats in cycle than do Democrats Current party breakdown of seats in cycle: Republican: 24 Democratic: 10 Photo: UVA Center for Politics

8 Senate Seats Up For Reelection: Republicans Defending More Than Twice As Many Seats CA: OPEN Democrats (10 seats) NV: OPEN Republicans (24 seats) AK: Lisa Murkowski IL: Mark Kirk NH: Kelly Ayotte CO: Tom Udall NY: Chuck Schumer AL: Richard Shelby IN: OPEN OH: Rob Portman CT: Richard Blumenthal OR: Ron Wyden AR: John Boozman KS: Jerry Moran OK: James Lankford HI: Brian Schatz MD: OPEN VT: Patrick Leahy WA: Patty Murray AZ: John McCain KY: Rand Paul PA: Pat Toomey FL: Marco Rubio LA: OPEN SC: Tim Scott GA: Johnny Isakson MO: Roy Blunt SD: John Thune IA: Chuck Grassley NC: Richard Burr UT: Mike Lee ID: Mike Crapo ND: John Hoeven WI: Ron Johnson

9 Senate Seats Up For Reelection: 10 GOP Seats In Obama Territory Republicans have 7 seats up in states twice won by President Obama and 2 seats up in states he won in Republicans Running in States Obama Won Twice FL: Marco Rubio IA: Chuck Grassley IL: Mark Kirk NH: Kelly Ayotte OH: Rob Portman PA: Pat Toomey WI: Ron Johnson Republicans Running in States Obama Won In 2008 Only IN: OPEN NC: Richard Burr

10 The Senate: GOP on Defense* Ten of Eleven Battleground Races are GOP Seats Solid D (8) Likely D (1) Lean D (2) Toss Up (7) Lean R (2) Likely R (3) Solid R (11) CA: OPEN CO: Bennet IL: Kirk FL: Rubio AZ: McCain AK: Murkowski AL: Shelby CT: Blumenthal WI: Johnson IN: OPEN OH: Portman GA: Isakson AR: Boozman HI: Schatz MO: Blunt IA: Grassley ID: Crapo MD: OPEN NH: Ayotte KS: Moran NY: Schumer NC: Burr KY: Paul OR: Wyden NV: OPEN LA: OPEN VT: Leahy PA: Toomey ND: Hoeven WA: Murray OK: Lankford SC: Scott SD: Thune UT: Lee *Based on Cook Report Rankings Blue: Democratic Incumbents Red: Republican Incumbent

11 Power Rankings: Seats Most Likely to Flip Washington Post: Oct 6 1) IL: Kirk 2) WI: Johnson 3) PA: Toomey 4) NV: OPEN 5) NH: Ayotte 6) IN: OPEN 7) NC: Burr 8) MO: Blunt 9) FL: Rubio 10) AZ: McCain National Journal: Oct 15 1) IL: Kirk 2) WI: Johnson 3) PA: Toomey 4) NH: Ayotte 5) NC: Burr 6) MO: Blunt 7) IN: OPEN 8) NV: OPEN 9) FL: Rubio 10) AZ: McCain *Blue: Democratic Incumbent Red: Republican Incumbent

12 Competitive Seats Ranked from most likely to flip to least likely, based on the Oct. 15 National Journal Hotline Rankings. Photo: CNN

13 Illinois: Duckworth(D) v. Kirk(R) Incumbent: Mark Kirk (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Rep. Tammy Duckworth 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 57%, Romney (R), 40% 2010 Senate Election: Kirk (R) 48%, Giannoulias (D) 47% Cook Report Rating: Leans Democrat Rep. Tammy Duckworth Sen. Mark Kirk Photo: St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Illinois: State of Play Sen. Kirk was swept into President Obama s old Senate seat in the 2010 Republican wave after facing a damaged Democratic opponent.

14 Illinois: State of Play Sen. Kirk was swept into President Obama s old Senate seat in the 2010 Republican wave after facing a damaged Democratic opponent. In 2016, he faces a better prepared challenger in Rep. Tammy Duckworth. The seat consistently ranks as one of the most likely to flip in party control due to Illinois heavy blue state nature. Image: Real Clear Politics

15 Wisconsin: Johnson(R) v. Feingold(D) Incumbent: Ron Johnson (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Fmr. Sen. Russ Feingold 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 53%, Romney (R) 46% 2010 Senate Election: Johnson (R) 52%, Feingold (D) 47% Cook Report Rating: Leans Democrat Sen. Ron Johnson Fmr. Sen. Russ Feingold Photo: JS Online

16 Wisconsin: State of Play Sen. Johnson defeated former Sen. Feingold in the boon Republican cycle of In presidential years, Wisconsin behaves as a reliably blue state, and Democrats are hopeful that the environment is ripe for Feingold to return to the Senate, though recent polls show Johnson closing the gap. Image: Real Clear Politics

17 Pennsylvania: Toomey(R) v. McGinty (D) Incumbent: Pat Toomey (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Katie McGinty 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 52%, Romney (R) 47% 2010 Senate Election: Toomey (R) 51%, Sestak (D) 49% Cook Report Rating: Tossup Sen. Pat Toomey Katie McGinty Photo: St. Louis Post-Dispatch

g. gun control), which has earned him support among independent voters.

18 Pennsylvania: State of Play Sen. Toomey is attempting to escape the undertow of weak Trump poll numbers in Pennsylvania. Nonetheless, Toomey has run an aggressive campaign. During his Senate tenure, he has paired his conservative stances with more moderate positions (e.g. gun control), which has earned him support among independent voters. Pennsylvania is particularly strong for Democrats in presidential election years, and McGinty supporters are hoping to stoke anti-trump fervor to get key voting groups to the polls in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and their suburbs. Image: Real Clear Politics

19 New Hampshire: Ayotte(R) v. Hassan(D) Incumbent: Kelly Ayotte (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Gov. Maggie Hassan 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 52%, Romney (R) 46% 2010 Senate Election: Ayotte (R) 60%, Hodes (D) 37% Cook Report Rating: Tossup Sen. Kelly Ayotte Gov. Maggie Hassan Photo: JS Online

New Hampshire: State of Play Considered one of the truest tossup races, the Ayotte-Hassan matchup features two popular and successful New Hampshire women.

20 New Hampshire: State of Play Considered one of the truest tossup races, the Ayotte-Hassan matchup features two popular and successful New Hampshire women. With the fickle nature of the state s electorate, some analysts give the edge to Hassan, who has served two successful terms as governor. Polling also shows Clinton leading Trump in the state, possibly providing electoral coattails for other Democrats. However, over her six years in office, Ayotte has put in place a strong campaign infrastructure, and her relentless crusade to pass opioid legislation is a key selling point in drug-ravaged New Hampshire. Image: Real Clear Politics

21 North Carolina: Burr(R) v. Ross(D) Incumbent: Richard Burr (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Sec. of State Deborah Ross 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 48%, Romney (R) 51% 2010 Senate Election: Burr (R) 55%, Marshall (D) 43% Cook Report Rating: Tossup Sen. Richard Burr Sec. Deborah Ross Photo: The News & Observer

North Carolina: State of Play Sen. Burr started a heavy favorite in his reelection race. Though Republicans remain confident that he will win, polls have tightened.

22 North Carolina: State of Play Sen. Burr started a heavy favorite in his reelection race. Though Republicans remain confident that he will win, polls have tightened. Outside groups are moving to bolster Burr s campaign through ad buys to highlight Ross controversial tenure at the state office of the ACLU. Sec. Ross has been a surprisingly formidable candidate and is being helped by the Clinton campaign s push to win the state. Democrats are also hoping that the unpopular Gov. Pat McCrory, who is running for reelection, drags down the Republican ticket. Image: Real Clear Politics

23 Missouri: Blunt(R) v. Kander(D) Incumbent: Roy Blunt (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Sec. of State Jason Kander 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 54%, Romney (R) 44% 2010 Senate Election: Blunt (R) 54%, Carnahan (D) 40% Cook Report Rating: Leans Republican Sen. Roy Blunt Sec. Jason Kander Photo: St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Missouri: State of Play Like North Carolina, polls in the Missouri Senate race have tightened. Sen. Blunt has wide name recognition, and Trump is expected to easily win the state.

24 Missouri: State of Play Like North Carolina, polls in the Missouri Senate race have tightened. Sen. Blunt has wide name recognition, and Trump is expected to easily win the state. Still, Democrats are pleased with Sec. Kander s campaign, built largely around his youth and service in the War in Afghanistan. As in several states where Republicans are likely to prevail, Democrats hope Kander keeps the race close, forcing the GOP to shift resources to Missouri and away from battleground states. Image: Real Clear Politics

25 Indiana: Young(R) v. Bayh(D) Incumbent: Dan Coats (R), retiring Republican Candidate: Rep. Todd Young Democratic Candidate: Fmr. Sen. Evan Bayh 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 44%, Romney (R) 54% 2010 Senate Election: Coats (R) 55%, Ellsworth (D) 40% Cook Report Rating: Tossup Fmr. Sen. Evan Bayh Rep. Todd Young Photo: JS Online

26 Indiana: State of Play Former Senator Evan Bayh, who retired from the Senate in 2010, made a shocking, late entry into the race to reclaim his old seat. Democrats chances in the state dramatically improved given Bayh s substantial campaign war chest and widespread name recognition. While analysts believe Bayh s entrance will make it difficult for Republicans to retain the seat, Rep. Young remains confident. Trump is expected to win the state, and attacks on Bayh s residency and post-senate career have helped Young close the polling gap dramatically. Image: Real Clear Politics

27 Nevada: Cortez Masto(D) v. Heck(R) Incumbent: Harry Reid (D), retiring Republican Candidate: Rep. Joe Heck (R) Democratic Candidate: Fmr. NV Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 52%, Romney (R) 46% 2010 Senate Election: Reid (D) 50%, Angle (R) 45% Cook Report Rating: Tossup AG Catherine Cortez Masto Rep. Joe Heck Photo: KUNR Radio

28 Nevada: State of Play The race to replace retiring Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid remains competitive. Rep. Joe Heck has a strong electoral history and good relationship with the state s growing Hispanic population. His campaign has managed to keep the race tight. Former Attorney General Cortez Masto would be the first Hispanic woman elected to the U.S. Senate. Despite early stumbles, she has the backing of the powerful Reid operation, and Nevada has trended toward Democrats in recent presidential election cycles. Image: Real Clear Politics

29 Florida: Rubio(R) v. Murphy(D) Incumbent: Marco Rubio (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Rep. Patrick Murphy 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 49% 2010 Senate Election: Rubio (R) 49%, Meek (D) 20%, Crist (I) 20% Cook Report Rating: Tossup Sen. Marco Rubio Rep. Patrick Murphy Photo: Miami Herald

30 Florida: State of Play Sen. Rubio did not initially run for reelection, focusing on his unsuccessful run for the Presidency. He shocked observers when he jumped into the Florida Senate race, clearing the field of other Republican candidates. The GOP has lobbed successful attacks against Rep. Murphy, keeping Rubio on top in the polls. Democrats are hopeful that Clinton s strong operation in the state and the large Hispanic population will give Murphy an anti-trump boost, though Rubio s base includes Cuban-American communities in Southern Florida Image: Real Clear Politics

31 Arizona: Kirkpatrick(D) v. McCain(R) Incumbent: John McCain (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 44%, Romney (R) 54% 2010 Senate Election: McCain (R) 58%, Glassman (D) 34% Cook Report Rating: Leans Republican Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick Sen. John McCain Photo: Columbus Dispatch

32 Arizona: State of Play Democrats had hoped to make Arizona a battleground state. Sen. McCain faced a primary challenge that he only won with 52% of the vote. Since then, however, he has pull out a significant polling lead over Rep. Kirkpatrick. McCain has near universal name recognition across the state, but Kirkpatrick and the Clinton campaign are expected to continue to attempt to tie him to Trump s incendiary position on immigrants, which could pose a challenge for McCain in the Hispanic heavy state. Image: Real Clear Politics

33 Ohio: Portman(R) v. Strickland(D) Incumbent: Rob Portman (R), running for reelection Democratic Candidate: Fmr. Gov. Ted Strickland 2012 Presidential Election: Obama (D) 50%, Romney (R) 48% 2010 Senate Election: Portman (R) 57%, Fisher (D) 39% Cook Report Rating: Leans Republican Sen. Rob Portman Gov. Ted Strickland Photo: Columbus Dispatch

34 Ohio: State of Play Ohio was expected to be the marquee Senate race in 2016, but polls show an overwhelming advantage for Sen. Portman thanks to a sophisticated campaign operation and millions of spending from outside groups. The Republican is far outpolling Trump. Portman s surge led to Washington Democrats scaling back the resources devoted to the race. Gov. Strickland s campaign remains hopeful that the Clinton campaign will give them a boost. Democrats in the state are also framing Strickland as the champion of blue collar voters, who are all-important in Ohio elections. Image: Real Clear Politics

Ticket Splitting: Is It Happening? Despite Democratic efforts to tie Republicans to the controversial Trump, many of the key Senate and House races remain tight.

35 Ticket Splitting: Is It Happening? Despite Democratic efforts to tie Republicans to the controversial Trump, many of the key Senate and House races remain tight. Polling and analysis have suggested that American voters in 2016 could be poised to replicate the massive level of ticket splitting last seen in the 1996 presidential election. Analysts view this phenomenon as anticipatory balancing. The more voters expect Clinton will win the White House, the more likely they may be to support Republicans down ballot as a check on her presidency. However, analyst also assert that Trump will likely need to have a minimum level of support in swing states/districts for ticket splitting to occur, and some of his recent controversies have put a dent in several GOP Senate nominees polling. Photo: Politico

36 Ticket Splitting In Key Senate Races: GOP Candidates Outperforming Trump In Purple States, Underperforming in Red States State Presidential Average 2-Way Senate Average Florida Clinton Rubio +3.6 Indiana Trump +6.5 Bayh +3.7 Missouri Trump +7.2 Blunt +1.0 Nevada Clinton Heck +1.4 New Hampshire Clinton Ayotte +1.3 North Carolina Clinton Burr +3.2 Ohio Trump +1.0 Portman Pennsylvania Clinton Toomey +1.3 Source: Real Clear Politics

Looking Ahead To 2018: A GOP Wave In The Making? If Democrats take the majority in 2016, it may be short-lived.

Democratic incumbents in red states (IN, MO, MT, ND) and purple states (FL, OH, PA, VA).

37 Looking Ahead To 2018: A GOP Wave In The Making? If Democrats take the majority in 2016, it may be short-lived. Democrats are bracing for a difficult map in 2018, when they will have to defend 25 seats while Republicans will have just 8. Due to underperforming in friendly terrain in 2012, Republicans are optimistic of their chances in defeating Democratic incumbents in red states (IN, MO, MT, ND) and purple states (FL, OH, PA, VA). Recent midterm elections have been difficult for Democrats. Democrats major pickup opportunities in 2018 will likely be Nevada and Arizona. The winner of the 2016 presidential election could also affect races in Photo: Wikipedia

Vice President Kaine: What Happens In Virginia If Clinton Wins? If the Clinton-Kaine ticket is victorious, Tim Kaine will vacate his Senate seat to become Vice President (and President of the Senate).

38 Vice President Kaine: What Happens In Virginia If Clinton Wins? If the Clinton-Kaine ticket is victorious, Tim Kaine will vacate his Senate seat to become Vice President (and President of the Senate). Virginia law requires the Governor to appoint a replacement until a special election can be held to coincide with the next regularly scheduled election, which is the November 2017 gubernatorial election. Governor Terry McAuliffe would appoint a fellow Democrat to the vacancy. However, Republicans perform better in off year elections, and if Democrats produce a thin Senate majority (with a Vice President Kaine breaking tie votes), Republicans could conceivably regain the majority with a victory in the Virginia special election. Regardless of who wins in 2017, the seat is up in 2018 and will be a key battleground race for both parties. Photo: Wikipedia

39 House of Representatives Photo: U.S. House of Representatives

40 House of Representatives Current Breakdown: 246R 187D 3 Number of seats in cycle: 435 Majority: 218 Members Number of turnovers needed for Democrats to regain a majority: 31 seats Republican Democratic Vacancies

41 Open House Seats Democratic Deaths or Resignations Democratic Retirements or Primary Defeats Republican Retirements or Primary Defeats Republican Deaths or Resignations 2 Seats 18 Seats 27 Seats 1 Seat

42 The Senate: GOP on Defense* Far More Tossups For GOP Than Dems Likely D (6) Lean D (7) D Incumbent Tossup (1) R Incumbent Tossup (17) Lean R (13) Likely R (13) CA-52: Peters AZ-01: OPEN NE-02: Ashford CA-10: Denham CA-21: Valadao AK-AL: Young FL-10: OPEN CA-07: Bera CA-25: Knight FL-18: OPEN AZ-02: McSally MD-06: Delaney CA-24: OPEN CA-49: Issa IN-09: OPEN CO-03: Tipton NY-03: OPEN FL-13: Jolly CO-05: Coffman IA-03: Young FL-02: OPEN NY-25: Slaughter MN-08: Nolan FL-07: Mica KS-03: Yoder FL-27: Ros-Lehtinen VA-04: OPEN NV-04: Hardy FL-26: Curbelo MI-01: OPEN IL-12: Bost NH-01: Guinta IL-10: Dold MI-07: Walberg IN-02: Walorski IA-01: Blum MN-03: Paulsen MI-09: Bishop ME-02: Poliquin NY-01: Zeldin MT-AL: Zinke MN-02: OPEN NY-24: Katko NY-21: Stefanik NV-03: OPEN PA-06: Costello NY-23: Reed NJ-05: Garrett UT-04: Love PA-16: OPEN NY-19: OPEN WI-08: OPEN VA-05: OPEN NY-22: OPEN PA-08: OPEN TX-23: Hurd *Based on Cook Report Rankings Blue: Democratic Incumbents Red: Republican Incumbent VA-10: Comstock

43 Power Rankings: Seats Most Likely to Flip Roll Call**: Oct 6 1) FL-13: Jolly 2) NV-04: Hardy 3) NH-01: Guinta 4) IL-10: Dold 5) FL-07: Mica 6) TX-23: Hurd 7) FL-26: Curbelo 8) ME-02: Poliquin 9) IA-01: Blum 10) NJ-05: Garrett National Journal: Oct 19 1) FL-02: OPEN 9) FL-26: Curbelo 2) VA-04: OPEN 10) TX-23: Hurd 3) FL-10: OPEN 11) IA-01: Blum 4) FL-13: Jolly 12) ME-02: Poliquin 5) NV-04: Hardy 13) FL-07: Mica 6) NH-01: Guinta 14) NJ-05: Garrett 7) IL-10: Dold 15) FL-18: OPEN 8) MN-02: OPEN *Blue: Democratic Incumbent Red: Republican Incumbent **Poll excludes open seats

44 Generic Ballot Election Generic Ballot, Day of Election Outcome in the House 2006 Democrat Democratic Takeover 2008 Democrat +9.0 Democratic Hold 2010 Republican +9.4 Republican Takeover 2012 Republican +0.2 Republican Hold 2014 Republican +2.4 Republican Hold Oct 2016 Democrat +3.7 TBD The generic ballot is a good, but not infallible, indicator of which party will take the House majority in a given election. Generally, a takeover of the majority requires a generic ballot margin approaching double digits, as in 2006 and Smaller margins generally indicate a status quo outcome, as in 2012 and If the generic ballot margin begins to widen significantly for Democrats, it could foretell a possible takeover. Source: Real Clear Politics

45 Advantage GOP Analysts predict an advantage for House Republicans heading into election day. The party s strong performance in 2010 gave the GOP control of a majority of state legislatures ahead of legislative redistricting. As a result, many districts were redrawn to favor Republicans. Though some analysts suggest that Trump s recent controversies could put this GOP advantage in jeopardy, few observers believe Democrats will have a realistic chance of taking back the majority before redistricting commences following the 2020 U.S. Census. Image: National Journal

46 Photo: Huffington Post The Race Ahead

Campaign Issues While issues vary from race to race, several overarching issues have dominated congressional races, including: Progression of the

47 Campaign Issues While issues vary from race to race, several overarching issues have dominated congressional races, including: Progression of the presidential race Terrorism, national security, and foreign policy The economy Trade Immigration and refugee policy Dissatisfaction with government Image: The Atlantic

Democratic Strategy The number one priority for congressional Democrats over the next two weeks is to tie Republican incumbents and challengers to Trump and his controversial statements on women and

48 Democratic Strategy The number one priority for congressional Democrats over the next two weeks is to tie Republican incumbents and challengers to Trump and his controversial statements on women and minorities. The goal is to make GOP candidates choose between the Trump base and swing voters. Competitive Senate and House polling in swing states/districts where Trump is down indicates that this strategy may have limited effects. The Clinton campaign has an organizational advantage in most states, and Democrats will leverage that edge to bolster their congressional candidates get-out-the-vote operations. Democrats also seek to exploit the ongoing tensions between the Trump campaign and the Party s leadership following the flight of several congressional Republican supporters due to release of Trump s controversial 2005 recording. Image: Washington Times

49 Republican Strategy Republicans see challenges in running with Trump at the top of the ticket, but also opportunities. The GOP will seek to replicate Trump s success with working class Americans in key states and districts. In states and districts where Trump fairs more poorly, Republicans will attempt to localize the race, mimicking successful GOP efforts in Senate races in Ohio and New Hampshire. This may also result in Republican candidates continuing to disavow and/or disown Trump following his string of recent controversies. Republican candidates will also continue to train fire on Clinton, taking advantage of her low favorability ratings. Image: Washington Times

50 2016 Congressional Election Presentation

Campaign 16. A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016

Campaign 16. A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016 Campaign 16 A Hawthorn Group visit with Kansas City Chamber June 24, 2016 Agenda I. The Knowns II. The Unknowns III. The Early Appeals IV. The Hard Questions Bring Down Title The Knowns It s a Big Political