The Old Way ( ) 9/2/13. The Road to the White House. Nominations Primaries and Caucuses. Road to the White House Overview

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1 The Road to the White House Nominations Primaries and Caucuses Road to the White House Overview Presidential Elections The Road to the White House (A) The Primary System: Nominating Presidential Candidates 1. Historical Roots and The Old Way 2. The Reforms of 1972 and The New Way 3. The Primary Electorate 4. Campaign Finance 5. Summary: The Dynamics of Primary Campaigns (B) Politics and the Media 1. Incentives: Management, Reporters, Candidates 2. The Relationship between Reporters and Candidates 3. Characteristics of Political Reporting (C) The General Election: Choosing a President 1. The Rules of the Game --- Electoral College 2. The General Electorate 3. Candidate Decision Making and Campaign Strategy The Old Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: State party leaders controlled the selection of delegates to the national convention. 1

2 The Old Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: State party leaders controlled the selection of delegates to the national convention. [2] Nomination politics: The nomination game was then a struggle among the candidates to win the support of state party leaders and their delegations. The Old Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: State party leaders controlled the selection of delegates to the national convention. [2] Nomination politics: The nomination game was then a struggle among the candidates to win the support of state party leaders and their delegations. [3] Rank and File Voters: Primaries were largely beauty contests in which candidates tried to demonstrate their ability to attract votes. The Old Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: State party leaders controlled the selection of delegates to the national convention. [2] Nomination politics: The nomination game was then a struggle among the candidates to win the support of state party leaders and their delegations. [3] Rank and File Voters: Primaries were largely beauty contests in which candidates tried to demonstrate their ability to attract votes. [4] Conventions were meaningful. Brokerage politics prevailed in selecting a nominee. 2

3 A Condensed History of Party Conventions Years in Which There Were Multiple Roll Calls to Select a Nominee Year Democratic Nominee Ballots Whig/Republican Nominee Ballots 1844 James Polk (former Speaker; Gov; TN) 9 Henry Clay (former Sec State; KTY) Lewis Cass (Senator, MICH) 4 Zachary Taylor (General; VA) Franklin Pierce (former Senator; NH) 49 Winfield Scott (General; VA) James Buchanan (Ambassador; PA) 17 John C. Fremont (Senator, CAL) Stephen Douglas (Senator, ILL) 57 Abraham Lincoln (formerly House; ILL) Horatio Seymour (former Gov; NY) 22 Ulysses Grant (General; OH) Samuel Tilden (Gov; NY) 2 Rutherford Hayes (Governor; OH) Winfield Hancock (General; PA) 2 James Garfield (House; OH) Grover Cleveland (Gov; NY) 2 James Blaine (Secretary of State; ME) Grover Cleveland (Incumbent; NY) 1 Benjamin Harrison (former Senate; IND) William Bryan (former House; NEB) 5 William McKinley (Governor; OH) Woodrow Wilson (Gov; NJ) 46 William Taft (Incumbent; OH) Woodrow Wilson (Incumbent; NJ) 1 Charles Hughes (former Gov & Judge; NY) James Cox (Gov; Ohio) 44 Warren Harding (Senator; OH) John Davis (Ambassador; WVA) 103 Calvin Coolidge (VP; Incumbent; MASS) Franklin Roosevelt (Governor; NY) 4 Herbert Hoover (Incumbent; IA) Franklin Roosevelt (Incumbent; NY) 1 Wendell Wilkie (No office; IND) Harry Truman (Incumbent; MO) 1 Thomas Dewey (former Gov; NY) Adlai Stevenson (Governor; ILL) 3 Dwight Eisenhower (General; KS) 1 What Led to the Demise of the Old Way? The Vietnam War and Democratic Nomination Politics in

4 The Democratic National Convention in Chicago, August 1968: Self-Destruction in Prime Time The McGovern-Fraser Commission Creates the New Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: Control of State Party Leaders was broken. Delegates (high proportion of the total) must be selected in open caucuses or primaries. Delegate awards to the candidates must reflect their performance in caucuses or primaries. (Democrats use a proportionality rule). The McGovern-Fraser Commission Creates the New Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: Control of State Party Leaders was broken. Delegates (high proportion of the total) must be selected in open caucuses or primaries. Delegate awards to the candidates must reflect their performance in caucuses or primaries. (Democrats use a proportionality rule). [2] Binding: Delegates selected as supporters of a candidate must vote for that candidate at the convention. The only exceptions are delegates who are selected as uncommitted and the superdelegates. 4

5 The McGovern-Fraser Commission Creates the New Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: Control of State Party Leaders was broken. Delegates (high proportion of the total) must be selected in open caucuses or primaries. Delegate awards to the candidates must reflect their performance in caucuses or primaries. (Democrats use a proportionality rule). [2] Binding: Delegates selected as supporters of a candidate must vote for that candidate at the convention. The only exceptions are delegates who are selected as uncommitted and the superdelegates. [3] Sequencing and the Marathon: The national parties, in cooperation with the state parties, will schedule the nominating events between January and June of presidential election years. This creates a Marathon of primaries and caucuses. The McGovern-Fraser Commission Creates the New Way ( ) [1] Delegate Selection: Control of State Party Leaders was broken. Delegates (high proportion of the total) must be selected in open caucuses or primaries. Delegate awards to the candidates must reflect their performance in caucuses or primaries. (Democrats use a proportionality rule). [2] Binding: Delegates selected as supporters of a candidate must vote for that candidate at the convention. The only exceptions are delegates who are selected as uncommitted and the superdelegates. [3] Sequencing and the Marathon: The national parties, in cooperation with the state parties, will schedule the nominating events between January and June of presidential election years. This creates a Marathon of primaries and caucuses. [4] Party Conventions. Have ceased to be a brokerage meeting and have become coronations and prime time political talent shows. The Consequences of the New Way [1] Candidate momentum is a product of the marathon Early victories lead to disproportionate increases in campaign fundraising, poll standing, and media attention Jimmy Carter s 1976 campaign is a textbook example 5

6 The Consequences of the New Way [1] Candidate momentum is a product of the marathon [2] Disproportionate influence exercised by early state primaries and caucuses Iowa (2008) Democrats: 47 of 4,049 delegates 1.4% Republicans: 40 of 2,380 delegates 1.7% 6

7 New Hampshire (2008) Democrats: 27 of 4,049 delegates; 0.7% Republicans: 24 of 2,380 delegates; 1.0% The Consequences of the New Way [1] Candidate momentum is a product of the marathon [2] Disproportionate influence exercised by early state primaries and caucuses [3] Creates an unofficial primary of fundraising, campaigning, and debates that begins over a year before the first official caucus/primary The Unofficial Primary The Entry of Candidates into the Campaign Date 10/30/ /15/ /30/ /1/ /4/ /11/ /19/ /28/2006 1/3/2007 1/7/2007 1/11/2007 1/12/2007 1/15/2007 1/16/2007 1/20/2007 1/21/2007 1/29/2007 2/5/2007 3/11/2007 Event Representative Duncan Hunter (R, Cal) forms exploratory committee Former governor Tommy Thompson (R, Wisc) forms exploratory committee Governor Tom Vilsack (D, Iowa) announces candidacy Senator Evan Bayh (D, Ind) forms exploratory committee Senator Sam Brownback (R, Neb) forms exploratory committee Representative Dennis Kucinich (D, Ohio) announces candidacy Former governor James Gilmore (R, Va) forms exploratory committee Former Senator John Edwards (D, NC) begins his campaign in New Orleans Former governor Mitt Romney (R, Mass) forms exploratory committee Senator Joe Biden (D, Del) forms exploratory committee Representative Ron Paul (R, Tex) announces candidacy Representative Duncan Hunter (R, Cal) forms exploratory committee Representative Tom Tancredo (R, Col) forms exploratory committee Senator Barack Obama (R, Ill) forms exploratory committee Senator Hillary Clinton (D, NY) forms exploratory committee Governor Bill Richardson (D, NM) forms exploratory committee Former governor Mike Huckabee (R, Ark) forms exploratory committee Former mayor Rudy Giuliani officially declares candidacy Former Senator Fred Thompson (R, Tenn) announces he is considering a run 7

8 The Unofficial Primary Televised Debates prior to the Official Start of the Campaign Season Date 5/3/2007 5/15/2007 6/3/2007 6/4/2007 6/5/2007 6/28/2007 7/23/2007 8/5/2007 8/7/2007 8/19/2007 9/5/2007 9/16/2007 9/26/2007 9/27/ /9/ /14/ /21/ /21/ /30/ /15/ /28/ /4/ /9/2007 Event Republicans debate at the Reagan Presidential Library (MSNBC) Republicans debate at the University of South Carolina Democrats debate in New Hampshire (CNN) Sojourner s Forum with Clinton and Obama (CNN) Republicans debate in New Hampshire (CNN) Democrats debate at Howard University (CNN) Democrats debate in Charleston (CNN; YouTube & Google) Republican Forum in Des Moines, Iowa (ABC) Democrats debate in Chicago (AFL-CIO; MSNBC) Democrats debate in Des Moines, Iowa (ABC) Republicans debate in New Hampshire (FOX) Univision Republican debate in Coral Gables, Florida Democrats debate at Dartmouth College (NBC) Republicans debate at Dartmouth College (NBC) Republicans debate in Dearborn, Michigan Republicans debate in Manchester, NH (ABC) Republicans debate in Orlando, Florida (FOX) Democrats debate in Manchester, NH (ABC) Democrats debate in Philadelphia, PA (MSNBC/NBC) Democrats debate in Las Vegas, NV (CNN) Republicans debate (CNN; YouTube & Google) Republicans debate in Des Moines (FOX) Univision Republican Debate in Coral Gables, FL The Consequences of the New Way [1] Candidate momentum is a product of the marathon [2] Disproportionate influence exercised by early state primaries and caucuses [3] Creates an unofficial primary of fundraising, campaigning, and debates that begins over a year before the first official caucus/primary [4] The marathon creates a rapid weeding process The 2008 Presidential Election: Dramatis Personae Category Democrats Republicans Tier 1 Hillary Clinton,U.S. Senator, New York Barack Obama, U.S. Senator, Illinois John Edwards, Former Senator, North Carolina & VP Candidate (suspended campaign, 1/30/08) John McCain, U.S. Senator, Arizona Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts (suspended campaign, 2/7/08) Rudy Giuliani, Former Mayor of New York City (withdrew, 1/30/08) Tier 2 Mike Gravel, Former Senator, Alaska Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas Ron Paul, U.S. Representative, Texas Dennis Kucinich. U.S. Representative, Ohio Alan Keyes, (withdrew, 1/23/2008) Bill Richardson, Governor, New Mexico Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative, California (withdrew, 1/10/2008) (withdrew, 1/19/2008) Joe Biden, U.S. Senator, Delaware Fred Thompson, Former Senator from Tennessee & Actor (withdrew, 1/3/2008) (withdrew, 1/22/08) Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator, Connecticut Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative, Colorado (withdrew, 1/3/2008) (withdrew, 12/20/2007) Tom Vilsack, Governor of Iowa Sam Brownback, U.S. Senator, Kansas (withdrew, 2/23/07) (withdrew, 10/19/07) Tommy Thompson, Former Governor of Wisconsin (withdrew, 10/12/07 after Iowa straw poll) Jim Gilmore, Former Governor of Virginia (withdrew, 7/14/2007) Declined to Mark Warner, Governor of Virginia George Allen, after 11/07 defeat for reelection to the Senate Run Russell Feingold, Senator, Wisconsin Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House & U.S. Evan Bayh, Senator, Indiana Representative from Georgia Note: The 2008 election is the first presidential contest since 1952 not involving an incumbent president OR a sitting vice president as a candidate. 8

9 The Consequences of the New Way [1] Candidate momentum is a product of the marathon [2] Disproportionate influence exercised by early state primaries and caucuses [3] Creates an unofficial primary of fundraising, campaigning, and debates that begins over a year before the first official caucus/primary [4] The marathon creates a rapid weeding process [5] This has prompted states to frontload the schedule The Consequences of the New Way [1] Candidate momentum is a product of the marathon [2] Disproportionate influence exercised by early state primaries and caucuses [3] Creates an unofficial primary of fundraising, campaigning, and debates that begins over a year before the first official caucus/ primary [4] The marathon creates a rapid weeding process [5] This has prompted states to frontload the schedule [6] The process contributes to the polarization of American politics 9

10 Why men are Republicans Polarization: An illustration 10

11 The General Election? OR 11

12 The Electoral College A Red vs. Blue Nation? 12

13 Consider Closeness 13