Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek Liberals: Copps Wins Large Share of the Hearts of Loyalist Liberals

Transcription

1 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps Wins Large Share of the Hearts of Loyalist s A COMPAS/National Post Poll for Publication January 2004 COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research

2 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Overview Hamilton East Stony Creek Voters in Tumult According to media reports, both the Tony Valeri and Sheila Copps camps fighting for the nomination in the new federal riding of Hamilton East-Stony Creek believe that the Transportation Minister has the edge in delegates to attend the nomination meeting. A National Post/COMPAS poll of the new federal riding, conducted January 19, 2004, shows that area are decided split on the controversy and Copps has a larger share of the hearts of definite : Sheila Copps wins 37:33 over Tony Valeri among 1 who have definite opinions about which of the two is the more deserving of being nominated as the, as shown in table 1a 2 ; By a margin of almost 3:1, believe that Valeri should run in the neighbouring riding, where he lives (table 2a); Two-fifths (38%) of believe that Valeri is seeking the nomination as part of an effort by the Martin forces to push Copps out of the party (table 2a); A clear majority (56%) of s do not believe that Copps belongs in the (table 2a); 46% of s believe that the recently reported requirement for s to sign a non-compete agreement 3 is An unfair, anti-democratic attempt to harm Sheila Copps where as 33% believe that the requirement is a reasonable and fair requirement given the rumours that Sheila Copps might run for the (table 2b). If Copps were the, she would do better than Valeri if he were the 59% of the decided vote vs. 54% (tables 3d and 4d) If Valeri won the nomination, he would win a smaller majority of the vote in a general election than would Copps if she were the because Copps, as, would siphon away support to the 1 i.e. those who voted in the last federal election in that riding, 2 When soft are factored in, Copps loses her moral lead and s become evenly divided about who is the more deserving 40% for Copps and 41% for Valeri, as shown in table 1c. 3 i.e. an agreement that they would not seek the nomination of another party. 1

3 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a support up from 18% to 34% if Copps were the standard-bearer (tables 3d and 4d). The best news for the Valeri forces is that Valeri, running for the s would defeat Copps as the unless the Conservatives ran a very strong and strong national campaign, in which case it might be a three-way race. The best news for the Copps forces is that Copps is the more popular among definite and she elicits considerable sympathy. Copps Wins the Hearts of Strong Loyalists The evidence that Copps wins the hearts of the most of includes the following findings: Among definite, 37% think that Copps deserves the nomination compared to 33% for Valeri, as shown in table 1a and discussed above; If Copps were the, as many as 82% of those who voted in the last federal election would vote for her whereas only 62% of past would vote again if Valeri were running for the s and Copps for the ; By a margin of almost 3:1, believe that Valeri should run in the neighbouring riding, where he lives (table 2a); Two-fifths (38%) of believe that Valeri is seeking the nomination as part of an effort by the Martin forces to push Copps out of the party (table 2a); A clear majority (56%) of s do not believe that Copps belongs in the (table 2a); 46% of s believe that the recently reported requirement for s to sign a non-compete agreement 4 is an unfair, anti-democratic attempt to harm Sheila Copps where as 33% believe that the requirement is A reasonable and fair requirement given the rumours that Sheila Copps might run for the (table 2b). 4 i.e. an agreement that they would not seek the nomination of another party. 2

4 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Table 1: Which the More Deserving: (Q4-5) As you may know, the boundaries of the federal ridings have changed for the upcoming federal election. There s a contest for the nomination in the new amalgamated riding of Hamilton East Stoney Creek between two s [ROTATE] former deputy Prime Minister Sheila Copps and Transport Minister Tony Valeri. In your opinion, which of these is more deserving of being the in your riding in the next election? [ROTATE; SENTENCE OPTIONAL] [IF VOLUNTEERED DNK] To which of these would you lean [ROTATE SENTENCE OPTIONAL] Transport Minister Tony Valeri Table 1a: Initial Stated Preference (i.e. Whether Valeri or Copps is More Deserving of the Nomination) Former Deputy Prime Minister Sheila Copps Neither/don't like either Don't used * * Based on last federal election, response to Q

5 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Table 1b: Lean or Soft Preference (Asked Only of Respondents Not Expressing A Preference For Whether Valeri Or Copps is More Deserving of the Nomination) Transport Minister Tony Valeri Former Deputy Prime Minister Sheila Copps Neither/don't like either Don't used Table 1c: Combined, Vote + Lean (Soft Preference), Including Undecideds Transport Minister Tony Valeri Former Deputy Prime Minister Sheila Copps Neither/don't like either Don't used

6 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Table 2a: Opinions about the Controversy ( Q10) Please tell me if you agree or disagree with each of the following statements [ROTATE] Tony Valeri should run in the riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook where he lives Agree Disagree DNK Tony Valeri is trying to push Sheila Copps out of the party on behalf of Paul Martin Agree Disagree DNK Sheila Copps belongs in the Agree Disagree DNK %

7 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Table 2b: Opinions about Party Non-Compete Clause (Q11) The party has just announced that anyone who runs for a nomination will have to first sign a statement saying that he or she wont run for the nomination of another party. Do you think that this is [ROTATE] An unfair, antidemocratic attempt to harm Sheila Copps A reasonable and fair requirement given the rumours that Sheila Copps might run for the In Between Don't used

8 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Table 3: Federal Vote if Copps Were the Candidate Federal Vote (Q6-7) [ROTATE THIS QUESTION WITH THE NEXT] Thinking of the next federal election, whom would you vote for if you had the following choices [RANDOMIZE IF DNK] To which party would you then lean? [RANDOMIZE, SENTENCE OPTIONAL] Table 3a: Initial Vote an party Wouldn't vote Don't used

9 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Table 3b: Lean (Asked only of respondents not expressing a preference) An party Wouldn't vote Don't used Table 3c: Combined, Vote + Lean Including Undecideds An party Wouldn't vote Don't

10 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a used Table 3d: Combined Vote Excluding Undecideds An party Table 4: Federal Vote if Valeri were and Copps Candidates (Q8-9) Thinking of the next federal election [again], suppose you had a choice among [RANDOMIZE] [IF DNK] To which party would you then lean? [RANDOMIZE, SENTENCE OPTIONAL] Tony Valeri as the party Wouldn't vote Table 4a: Initial Vote Don't

11 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a used Table 4b: Lean (Asked only of respondents not expressing a preference) Tony Valeri as the party Wouldn't vote Don't used

12 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Table 4c: Combined, Vote + Lean Including Undecideds Tony Valeri as the party Wouldn't vote Don't used Table 4d: Combined Vote Excluding Undecideds Tony Valeri as the party

13 Tumult among Hamilton East-Stony Creek s: Copps v Valeri: a Methodology Samples of n=300 are normally deemed accurate to within 5.8 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal investigator on this study was Dr. Conrad Winn,