Update on the Federal Political Landscape

Transcription

1 Update on the Federal Political Landscape Liberals Damaged but still Poised to Form Government in a more Competitive Political Environment February 27,

2 Methodology Telephone survey of the general public 1,020 interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and older Interview period: February 23-25,2004 National results valid within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

3 All Survey Results Overview

4 All Survey Results Sponsorship Scandal

5 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Sponsorship controversy registering with voters Q: Do you recall hearing or seeing anything about the recent controversy over the federal government's sponsorship program? Yes, clearly 62 76% recall Yes, vaguely 14 No 24 DK/NR

6 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Scandal seen as negatively affecting federal government Q: The sponsorship program was created to boost the visibility of the federal government in Quebec after the 1995 referendum on sovereignty. The controversy arose after the Auditor General revealed that between , Liberal-friendly advertising firms received $100 million in commissions and fees under the $250-million program. What kind of an impact do you think the sponsorship scandal will have on the federal government? DK/NR Negative impact No impact Positive impact

7 Public views scandal as typical of gov t problems may lean to worse Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Q: And which of the following best characterizes you personal view of the sponsorship scandal? Would you say it is the worst government scandal I can recall worse than other government scandals bad, but no worse than other government scandals 52 not a particularly bad problem 6 DK/NR

8 All Survey Results Current Voting Intentions

9 Federal voting intentions Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? EKOS Dec. 03 Election % 55.5% 40.9% 31.9% 23.2%* 37.7% CA: 25.5% PC: 12.2% 14.6% % Undecided/declined: 16.2% Will not vote: 2.7% % 25% 50% 75% 100% Base Decided voters only (includes leaners ); Feb. 04, n=806 *Combined vote intention; breakdown: 9.5% CPC, 9.0% PC and 4.7% CA

10 Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Feb. 04, n=806 Federal voting intentions: past year Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 28-Feb 30-Mar 29-Apr 29-May 28-Jun 28-Jul 27-Aug 26-Sep 26-Oct 25-Nov 25-Dec 24-Jan 23-Feb Feb-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Mar-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Liberals 52% 47% 48% 51% 53% 50% 51% 52% 50% 54% 52% 53% 57% 55.5% 42% Progressive Conservatives 17% 14% 17% 17% 16% 17% 18% 22% 21% 17% 16% 14% 13% 9.0% New Democratic Party 12% 17% 15% 12% 10% 10% 12% 9% 9% 10% 14% 13% 12% 12.4% 15% Canadian Alliance 13% 11% 12% 11% 12% 12% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 10% 6% 4.7% Conservative Party of Canada 9.5% 32%

11 Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Feb. 04, n=806 Long-term trend: Liberals at lowest, Conservatives at peak Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 100% Election 97 Election 00 75% 50% 25% 0% Dec-96 Jun-97 Dec-97 Jun-98 Dec-98 Jun-99 Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Liberal PC NDP Canadian Alliance CPC

12 Base: Decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Feb. 04, n=806 Federal voting intentions: regional Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?* 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl. Liberal 44% 30% 35% 47% 38% 44% CPC 27% 63% 33% 36% 11% 43% NDP 22% 6% 30% 15% 9% 12% BQ 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 0% Other 7% 1% 2% 2% 3% 1% Liberal CPC NDP BQ Other

13 Base: Quebec decided voters only (includes leaners ); most recent data point Feb. 04, n=197 Quebec federal voting preferences Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? 100% Election 00 75% 50% 25% 0% Oct- 00 Nov- 00 Nov- 00 Nov- 00 Jan- 01 Jun- 01 Aug- 01 Jan- 02 May- 02 Aug- 02 Oct- 02 Dec- 02 Jan- 03 Feb- 03 Mar- 03 Apr- 03 Apr- 03 May- 03 May- 03 Jun- 03 Jul- 03 Nov- 03 Dec- 03 Feb- 04 Liberal CA PC BQ NDP CPC

14 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 NDP and CPC favoured second choice Q: If you were to change your mind, which party would be your second choice? 24% EKOS Jul % 23% PC: 28% CA: 13% 15% 22% 4% 5% Other 1% Undecided/declined: 20% Will not vote/change mind: 12% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

15 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, 1/3 sample Harper and Stronach basically tied in vote appeal Q: The newly formed Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) is about to elect a new leader. Could you tell me if there is a chance that you would consider voting for the CPC in the next federal election under the leadership of? Belinda Stronach Stephen Harper Tony Clement DK/NR No, never Maybe Yes, certainly

16 All Survey Results Public Optic on Next Election

17 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Liberals no longer seen as infallible; written off by many Q: Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. For the first time in a long time, I think someone other than the Liberals can win the next election I'm so disturbed by problems with ethics and accountability that I simply won't vote for the Liberals in the next election DK/NR Disagree Neither Agree

18 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Doubt over the competency of opposition parties declining Q: Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements. No matter how much difficulty the Liberals are encountering lately, I still don't feel comfortable that any of the opposition parties could form a competent government. Feb Jun DK/NR Disagree Neither Agree

19 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Despite problems, most say Liberals will win next election Q: Putting aside your personal voting intentions for the next federal election, which party do you think will win? 63% 17% 3% 3% DK/NR 15% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

20 CPC thought to be most effective in role of opposition Q: And which party do you think would be most effective in the role of opposition? EKOS Dec % 36%* 23% 17% 12% 10% 18% 6% Other 1% DK/NR 18% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 *Combined; breakdown: 13% for CPC, 17% for PC and 6% for CA

21 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 More than half think next government will be a minority Q: Do you think it will be a minority or a majority government? Majority government Minority government 6 DK/NR

22 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=558 for minority, 394 for majority Minority gov t viewed more favourably than majority Q: Is this a good thing or a bad thing? A minority government A majority government DK/NR Bad thing Neither Good thing

23 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Plurality want election held in next 6 months Q: When do you think that the next federal election should be held? Should it be... within the next 3 months 23 within the next 6 months 42 within the next 18 months 30 DK/NR

24 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Social issues still top public agenda Q: Which of the following do you think will be the most important issue for the next federal election? 19% The economy, jobs and growth Social issues like health and education 51% 18% Issues like ethics and accountability 11% 2% DK/NR Fiscal issues like taxes and debt

25 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Regional variations in issue priority Q: Which of the following do you think will be the most important issue for the next federal election? National BC ALB PRA ONT QUE ATL Social issues (health, education) The economy (jobs & growth) Ethics and accountability Fiscal issues (taxes)

26 All Survey Results Rating Potential Leaders

27 Base: All Canadians; Feb. 04, n=1,020 Martin overwhelmingly seen as best suited for role of PM Q: Who do you think would make the best Prime Minister for Canada? [unprompted] Paul Martin Stephen Harper Belinda Stronach Jack Layton Jean Chretien Joe Clark Sheila Copps John Manley Mike Harris DK/NR May

28 For more information: Frank Graves, President All Survey Results Andrew Sullivan,Vice President t: