PCs with solid lead on provincial Liberals

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE PCs with solid lead on provincial s voters moving to NDP, parties tied - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 881 Ontario voters, one third will vote if the election were held today (34%, down from 39% last month), while fewer than 3-in-10 will vote (29%). In fact, the s are now effectively tied with the NDP (27%) for second place. One tenth claim they will vote (8%) and very few will vote another party (2%). It is clear the s (32% in February, 29% now) are losing vote share to the NDP (21% in February, 27% now). PC minority seen, NDP in opposition If these results are projected up to a 107 seat provincial legislature, the PCs would take a minority of 52 seats, 3 short of a majority. The Democrats would claim 32 seats to form the new opposition and the s would take just 23 seats. Elliott tests best as leader, not so Brown, McNaughton When voters are asked the electoral preference question with Christine Elliott specified as PC leader, the party s lead increase (36% to 28%), and the NDP do as well as they do in the generic measure. When Patrick Brown is tested as leader, the PCs the s and the NDP all tie (30%, 30% and 29%, respectively). When Monte McNaughton is tried in the leader s spot, the parties tie again (PC - 29%, - 31%, NDP - 29%). Elliott preferred for PC leader by PC voters and members When all voters are asked which of the three PC leadership candidates would be best for the job, the plurality chose Christine Elliott (24%), and this exceeds the score for the other two by a factor of four (Patrick Brown - 6%, Monte McNaughton - 7%). The largest group, one third, don t have an opinion (34%), while just fewer think none of them are up to the job (29%). Among those who will vote PC, Elliott is more strongly preferred (35%), at about three times the rate of Brown (11%) or McNaughton (15%). Among paid-up PC party members, Elliott is preferred by as many as half (51%), compared to just one tenth for Brown (10%) and McNaughton (13%). Among members, relatively few have no opinion (11%) or think none are up to the job (14%). Caution: data based on small size of party members. 1 MEDIA INQUIRIES: HIGHLIGHTS: One third will vote if the election were held today (34%, down slightly from 39% last month), while fewer than 3-in-10 will vote (29%). When voters are asked the electoral preference question with Christine Elliott specified as PC leader, the party s lead increase (36% to 28%). When all voters are asked which of the three PC leadership candidates would be best for the job, the plurality chose Christine Elliott (24%).

2 Premier s favourables falling, Horwath s up One third of voters approve of the job Premier Wynne is doing (33%) and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative -20. This is down from 36% last month and 40% the month before. In the meantime, Andrea Horwath has seen her approval increase to 40% from 37% last month and 36% the month before that. Her net score is a positive +7, up from -1. Interim PC elder Jim Wilson has approval from less than a quarter (22%) and his net is -4. Gas plants scandal seen to be more serious than Sudbury by-election Three quarters of voters are aware of the gas plants scandal (73%), while just half are aware of the more recent Sudbury by-election scandal (50%). Among those aware of both, the gas plants scandal is seen to be the most serious by half (50%), five times as many as those who find the Sudbury by-election scandal the most serious (10%). One quarter find both scandals equally serious (23%), and just fewer find neither serious (16%). Among provincial voters, this increases to 4-in-10 who find neither scandal serious (40%). More than a quarter of those aware of the gas plants (29%) and Sudbury (27%) claim their minds have been changed by these scandals. Those who now support the Democrats are the most likely to say their vote decision has changed (34%). This no longer appears to be one bad poll for the s, it appears to be part of a losing streak for them, and a gaining streak for the Democrats, whose eulogy may have been said too hastily. They are showing all the signs of a vibrant opposition party once more. Now to see a majority government trailing midmandate in the polls is not surprising, but to be trailing a leaderless party is not a good sign," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at or at (416) MEDIA INQUIRIES: HIGHLIGHTS: One third of voters approve of the job Premier Wynne is doing (33%) and her net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a very negative -20. Three quarters of voters are aware of the gas plants scandal (73%), while just half are aware of the more recent Sudbury by-election scandal (50%). Well, this no longer appears to be one bad poll for the s, it appears to be part of a losing streak for them, and a gaining streak for the Democrats. Their eulogy may have been said too hastily; they are showing all this signs of a vibrant opposition party once more. Now to see a majority government trailing midmandate in the polls is not surprising, but to be trailing a leaderless party is not a good sign," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. 2

3 Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 881 randomly selected Ontarians 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on March 23 rd to 26 th, Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at MEDIA INQUIRIES: 3

4 Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending [Decided / Leaning] % Sample Con Lib NDP Other February 28 th, January 30 th, December 20 th, November 29 th, November 1 st, October 1 st, August st, Popular Vote June 7 th, 2014 Provincial Election Results June 11 th, June 5 th, May 27 th, May 20 th, May 12 th, May 2-3 rd, April 7 th, Mar 24 th, Feb. 25 th, Jan th, Dec th, Nov. 26 th, Oct. 25 th, Oct. 2 nd, Aug 29 th, Jul 22 nd, Jun 26 th, May 28 th May 3 rd, April 26 th, Mar 26 th to 27 th Feb. 26 th to Mar 1 st, Feb. 20 th, Jan. 23 to 24 th, Dec. 17 th, Nov. 27 th to28 th, Oct. 30 th to 31 st, Sep. 25 th, Aug 15 th, Jun 15 th, Jun 4 th,

5 Overall Seat Distribution % Con Lib NDP February 28 th, January 30 th, December 20 th, November 29 th, November 1 st October 1 st, August st, Election June 12 th, June 5 th, May 27 th, May 20 th, May 12 th, May 2-3 rd, April 7 th, Mar 24 th, Feb. 25 th, Jan th, Dec th, Nov. 26 th, Oct. 25 th, Oct. 2 nd, Aug 29 th, Jul 22 nd, Jun 26 th, May 28 th May 3 rd, April 26 th, Mar 26 th to 27 th Feb. 26 th to Mar 1 st, Feb. 20 th, Jan. 23 to 24 th, Dec. 17 th, Nov. 27 th to28 th, Oct. 30 th to 31 st, Sep. 25 th, Aug 15 th, Jun 15 th, Jun 4 th, May 14 th, Apr 17 th, Mar 28 th,

6 Ontario Provincial Party Leader Approval Rating Trending (% Approve) [All Respondents] Sample Wynne Wilson Horwath February 28 th, January 30 th, December 20 th, November 29 th, November 1 st, October 1 st, August st, July 3 rd, Wynne Hudak Horwath May 27 th, May 20 th, May 12 th, May 2-3 rd, April 7 th, Mar 24 th, Feb. 25 th, Jan th, Dec th, Nov. 26 th, Oct. 25 th, Oct. 2 nd, Aug 29 th, Jul 22 nd, Jun 26 th, May 28 th May 3 rd, April 26 th, Mar 26 th to 27 th Feb. 26 th to Mar 1 st, Feb. 20 th,

7 PC Leader Dependent Party Preference Trending % Sample Con Lib NDP Other Christine Elliot February 28 th, January 30 th, November 29 th, November 1 st, Monte McNaughton February 28 th, November 1 st, Patrick Brown February 28 th, November 1 st,

8 Current Provincial Party Preference If a provincial election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? MEDIA INQUIRIES: [Decided/Leaning] Sample Another Party Sample Another Party Past Provincial Party Preference Other parties Sample Another Party

9 Party Preference If Christine Elliot Were the PC Leader If a provincial election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for if Christine Elliott were the PC leader? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party would you be leaning towards at this time if Christine Elliott were the PC leader? [Decided/Leaning] Sample Another Party Sample Another Party Past Provincial Party Preference Other parties Sample Another Party

10 Party Preference If Patrick Brown Were the PC Leader If a provincial election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for if Patrick Brown were the PC leader? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party would you be leaning towards at this time if Lisa MacLeod were the PC leader? [Decided/Leaning] Sample Another Party Sample Another Party Past Provincial Party Preference Other parties Sample Another Party

11 Party Preference If Monte McNaughton Were the PC Leader If a provincial election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for if Monte McNaughton were the PC leader? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party would you be leaning towards at this time if Lisa MacLeod were the PC leader? [Decided/Leaning] Sample Another Party Sample Another Party Past Provincial Party Preference Other parties Sample Another Party

12 Kathleen Wynne Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kathleen Wynne is doing as premier? [All Respondents] Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

13 Jim Wilson Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jim Wilson is doing as interim leader of the Opposition? [All Respondents] Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

14 Andrea Horwath Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the job Andrea Horwath is doing as Leader of the NDP? [All Respondents] Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

15 Paid Member of PC Are you a paid up member of the Party of Ontario or not? [All Respondents] Sample Member Not a member Sample Member Not a member Income <$20K $20-$40K $40-$60K $60-$80K $80-$100K $100-$250K Sample Member Not a member Education Secondary Some college or Completed college Post graduate school or less university or university studies Sample Member Not a member

16 Best Leader for PC Who would make the best leader of the Party of Ontario? [All Respondents] MEDIA INQUIRIES: Sample Christine Elliott Patrick Brown Monte McNaughton None of these Don't know Sample Christine Elliott Patrick Brown Monte McNaughton None of these Don't know Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Christine Elliott Patrick Brown Monte McNaughton None of these Don't know Paid Member of PC Member Not a member Sample Christine Elliott Patrick Brown Monte McNaughton None of these Don't know

17 Gas Plant Controversy at Queen s Park Awareness Are you aware of the gas plant controversy at Queen's Park? [All Respondents] Sample Yes No Sample Yes No Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Yes No

18 Sudbury By-Election Controversy at Queen s Park Awareness Are you aware of the Sudbury by-election controversy at Queen's Park? [Aware of Controversy] Sample Yes No Sample Yes No Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Yes No

19 Most Serious Controversy at Queen s Park Which of these two controversies is the most serious? [Aware of both gas plant and Sudbury by-election controversies] Sample Gas plants Sudbury by-election Both equally Neither Don't know Sample Gas plants Sudbury by-election Both equally Neither Don't know Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Gas plants Sudbury byelection Both equally Neither Don't know

20 Current Controversies to Change the Respondents Party Preference in the Next Election Have these controversies made you change your mind about the party you will support in the next provincial election? [Aware of both gas plant and Sudbury by-election controversies] Sample Yes No Sample Yes No Provincial Party Preference Another Party Sample Yes No

21 For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) Fax: (416) MEDIA INQUIRIES: 21