Presentation to Ottawa Chapter of the Marketing Research and Intelligence. Rick Hobbs / Sebastien Dallaire

Transcription

1 Orange Crush Presentation to Ottawa Chapter of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association September 22, 2011 Rick Hobbs / Sebastien Dallaire

2

3 Final Results 40 th General Election Federal Election 2008 Quebec Conservative Party 37.7% 21.7% Liberal Party of Canada 26.3% 23.7% Bloc Québécois 10.0% 38.1% New Democratic Party 18.2% 12.2% Green Party 6.8% 3.5% Other 0.7% 0.6% 3

4 Final Results 40 th General Election 4

5 Final Results 41 st General Election Q.2a Using a scale of 1 10 (10=very familiar, 1= not at all familiar), please rate your level of familiarity with the role of the Transportation Safety Board. 5

6 Liberals Ahead of Bloc in Québec May 2009 Federal vote intentions (QUÉBEC) Question: If elections were held today which party would you vote for? (If you haven t decided which party are you leaning towards?) (n=1053) Before redistribution n=1053 After n=928 Francophones n=829 Non-franco n=98 32% 37% 32% 58% 29% 33% 40% 4% 13% 14% 14% 16% 11% 13% 11% 19% 3% 3% 3% 3% Other 0% 0% 0% 0% Neither / spoil ballot 7% DK 4% Refuse 2% Québec May

7 Michael Ignatieff is the best leader (May 2009) Best leader Question: In your opinion who is the best leader? (N=1053) Franco- % phones n=942 Non-Franco n=110 Michael Ignatieff 29% 26% 41% Gilles Duceppe 23% 28% 4% Jack Layton 17% 17% 17% Stephen Harper 10% 10% 13% Elizabeth May 2% 1% 4% Ne sait pas / Refus 19% 18% 20% Québec May

8 Support for separation softening? LA SOUVERAINETÉ DU QUÉBEC Question: Si un référendum sur la souveraineté du Québec avait lieu aujourd'hui, voteriez-vous POUR ou CONTRE la souveraineté du Québec? (N=1053) Total Francophones n=833 Nonfranco n=218 Pour 41% 50% 8% Contre 59% 50% 92% La politique provinciale et fédérale au Québec Mai

9 Support for separation softening? 55% Pour 53% 51% 49% 47% 45% Pour 43% 41% 39% 37% 35% Jan 95 Jan 96 Jan 97 Jan 98 Jan 99 Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 La politique provinciale et fédérale au Québec Mai

10 Quebec Vote Intent up to June 2009 Quebec Vote Intent 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5%.-nov 05.-déc 05.-janv.-avr mai 06.-janv 07.-févr 07 -mars 07 -mars.-avr mai 07 -juin 07.-févr 08.-avr 08 -juin 08.-sept 08.-sept 08.-sept.-oct avril 09 -mai 09 -juin 09 PLC 32% 30% 20% 20% 20% 25% 32% 25% 25% 19% 17% 20% 27% 21% 23% 23% 20% 23% 24% 38% 37% 35% BQ 48% 50% 42% 32% 42% 36% 31% 36% 36% 34% 36% 35% 35% 33% 31% 30% 32% 33% 37% 32% 33% 35% PC 8% 9% 26% 27% 26% 19% 24% 19% 26% 34% 28% 29% 21% 29% 24% 30% 34% 26% 23% 14% 13% 11% NPD 10% 10% 8% 15% 8% 11% 6% 11% 10% 10% 13% 12% 11% 12% 16% 11% 9% 12% 12% 13% 14% 15% Évolution des intentions de vote fédéral au Québec 10

11 2010 Plus ca change Quebec January 2010 Conservative Party 17% Liberal Party of Canada 23% Bloc Québécois 40% New Democratic Party 15% Green Party 4% Other 1% 11

12 Voting Intentions in Canada Start of Campaign 12

13 VOTING INTENTIONS IN CANADA REGIONAL APRIL 4 13 Question If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? If a respondent did not have a clear opinion, a follow-up question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, if federal elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? Federal voting intentions Total voters (n=3 549) Decided voters (n=3 112) Atlantic Quebec Ontario MB/SK Alberta BC (n=234) (n=993) (n=883) (n=282) (n=421) (n=299) The Conservative Party of Canada 32% 37% 33% 20% 39% 51% 58% 40% The Liberal Party of Canada 23% 26% 37% 20% 34% 22% 18% 19% The New Democratic Party 15% 18% 24% 15% 17% 18% 12% 28% The Bloc Québécois 8% 10% - 39% The Green Party of Canada 7% 8% 6% 5% 10% 9% 9% 12% Other 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 3% 1% Would abstain / Cancel 6% Don t know 7% Refusal 1%

14 VOTE CERTAINTY BY PARTY PREFERENCE 14 Half of Canadians (50%) say that their choice for the upcoming election is final, while 43% said that they may still change their vote and 7% don t know. Question Is your choice final, or is it still possible that you may change your vote? Total (n=3 549) PC (n=1 139) LPC (n=824) NDP (n=542) Bloc (n=362) Green (n=216) Final 50% 64% 55% 43% 64% 26% I may still change my vote Don t know / Refusal 43% 33% 43% 53% 34% 72% 7% 3% 2% 4% 2% 2%

15 MOST TRUSTED FEDERAL LEADERS IN QUEBEC 15 Three Quebeckers out of ten (30%) trust Gilles Duceppe the most, followed by Jack Layton (28%). Of note is the fact that only a quarter (27%) of LPC voters in Quebec put their trust in Michael Ignatieff. Question Among the five leaders of the main federal political parties, who do you trust the most? Is it? Federal Party Leader Total (n=1 118) Francophones (n=936) Anglophones (n=127) Other (n=54) Gilles Duceppe 30% 35% 5% 13% Jack Layton 28% 27% 41% 27% Stephen Harper 14% 13% 19% 16% Michael Ignatieff 6% 5% 9% 5% Elizabeth May 3% 2% 5% 6% Don t know / Refusal 19% 18% 21% 32%

16 Politics in Quebec Country is doing worse than before (59%) Scarred of a Conservative majority (62%) Brand Liberal still reeling 20 years of the Bloc (neither hurt not harm cause) PQ support down

17 IS CANADA DOING BETTER OR WORSE SINCE THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE TAKEN POWER? Compared to our March 26 poll, those who say better remained the same at 17%, as well is down by 1% and worse is down by 1%. In other words: NO CHANGE Question The Conservative Party has been in power in Ottawa since In your opinion, is Canada doing better, as well, or worse than five years ago? Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario MB/SK Alberta BC (n=3,521) (n=300) (n=1,012) (n=1,003) (n=401) (n=404) (n=401) Better 17% 15% 7% 19% 25% 31% 18% As well 31% 35% 24% 31% 31% 37% 33% Worse 43% 37% 59% 41% 33% 26% 41% Don't know / refusal 9% 13% 10% 9% 11% 6% 8%

18 Tout le monde en parle

19 The debates 59% of Quebecois thought Layton won English debate 20% (2 nd place) thought he won the French debate 37% said more likely to support NDP as a result of the debate (English) 64% made up their minds following the debate 45% had enough of other parties 34% wanted to block Conservative Majority 33% Time to move on (after 20 years of Bloc) Only 24% identified Layton specifically

20 Voting Intentions in Quebec 20 Conservative Party Liberal Party of Canada New Democratic Party Bloc Québécois Green Party 50% 45% 40% 41% 39% 39% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 34% 27% 22% 24% 20% 20% 18% 18% 20% 20% 16% 15% 16% 15% 4% 4% 5% 2% 2% March 14, 2011 March 26, 2011 April 4, 2011 April 17, 2011 April 30, 2011

21 Best Prime Minister? 21 Since April 4, Stephen Harper has lost 8 points, while Micheal Ignatieff lost 6 and Jack Layton moved up by 14 points and is now in first place! Question Among the five leaders of the main federal political parties, who would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? Is it...? Total Atlantic Quebec Ontario MB/SK Alberta BC (n=3,521) (n=300) (n=1,012) (n=1,003) (n=401) (n=404) (n=401) Jack Layton 34% 29% 51% 32% 30% 18% 28% Stephen Harper 30% 27% 10% 33% 40% 55% 36% Michael Ignatieff 11% 16% 9% 13% 8% 6% 8% Gilles Duceppe 5% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% Elizabeth May 4% 7% 2% 5% 4% 3% 5% Don't know / refusal 16% 21% 9% 17% 18% 18% 23%

22 Where now?

23 Did NDP recreate a new left in Quebec? From an ideological stand point do you consider yourself: n=1000 Total Right wing 5% Centre-right 14% Centre 22% NDP voters 29% (Left or centre left) 14% Right or centre right 29% DK Bloc voters 48% (Left or centre left) 6% Right or centre right Centre-left 20% Left wing 8% Don't know / refusal 31% 23

24 Federal Voting Intentions 24 Question If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? In cases where respondents have no opinion, the following question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? Before distribution of undecided (n=1,625) After distribution of undecided (n=1,402) Federal Elections 2011 Conservative Party 33% 39% 39.6% New Democratic Party 28% 33% 30.6% Liberal Party of Canada 14% 17% 18.9% Green Party 5% 6% 3.9% Bloc Québécois 4% 5% 6.0% Other party 1% 1% 0.3% I would not vote / I would cancel my ballot 5% - - I don't know 8% - - I prefer not answering 2% - -

25 Satisfaction with the Harper Government 25 Close to half of Canadians (48%) are satisfied with the government led by Stephen Harper. Question Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not satisfied at all with the government of Canada led by Stephen Harper? Satisfaction TOTAL (n=1,625) Atlan. (n=100) QC (n=402) ONT. (n=600) MB/SK (n=125) AB (n=248) BC (n=150) TOTAL SATISFIED 48% 40% 29% 51% 64% 68% 53% Very satisfied 13% 11% 3% 17% 19% 27% 8% Somewhat satisfied 35% 29% 26% 34% 45% 41% 45% TOTAL DISSATISFIED 46% 54% 64% 41% 28% 25% 41% Not very satisfied 25% 36% 38% 20% 20% 13% 17% Not satisfied at all 21% 18% 26% 21% 8% 12% 24% Don t know / Refusal 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 7% 6%

26 Federal Voting Intentions by Region 26 The Conservative Party is ahead in Ontario (41%), Alberta (68%) and the Prairies (62%). The NDP is well ahead in Quebec with 43% ofthe voting intentions. Question If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote, would it be for...? In cases where respondents have no opinion, the following question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? Federal Voting Intentions After distribution of undecided (n=1,402) Atlan. (n=79) QC (n=319) ONT. (n=554) MB/SK (n=105) AB (n=215) BC (n=130) Conservative Party 39% 35% 19% 41% 62% 68% 35% New Democratic Party 33% 48% 43% 28% 23% 19% 36% Liberal Party of Canada 17% 14% 11% 24% 12% 7% 16% Green Party 6% 2% 2% 6% 4% 6% 13% Bloc Québécois 5% 1% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other party 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0%

27 Le respect du Québec au Canada 27 Six Québécois sur dix (59%) ne pensent pas que le Québec est traité avec le respect qu il se doit. Cette proportion atteint 67% parmi les francophones et 61% parmi les électeurs du NPD. Question Êtes-vous fortement d'accord, plutôt d'accord, plutôt en désaccord ou fortement en désaccord avec les énoncés suivants? Le Québec est traité avec le respect qu'il se doit au Canada Le Canada Total (n=976) PLC (n=97) PC (n=155) NPD (n=439) Bloc (n=257) Franco (n=814) Nonfranco (n=161) TOTAL ACCORD 35% 61% 69% 32% 4% 29% 63% Fortement d'accord 11% 25% 26% 6% 0% 7% 27% Plutôt d'accord 25% 36% 43% 25% 4% 22% 36% TOTAL DÉSACCORD 59% 34% 25% 61% 94% 67% 30% Plutôt en désaccord 35% 26% 20% 40% 38% 39% 17% Fortement en désaccord 25% 7% 6% 21% 56% 28% 12% Ne sait pas / refus 5% 6% 6% 7% 2% 4% 7%

28 NDP Leadership Race 28 Thomas Mulcair (17%) - mainly because of his support in Quebec (50%) - and Brian Topp (10%) are the two prospective candidates most respondents would like to see take charge of the NDP. Question The NDP will have to choose a new leader on March 24, Among the prospective candidates, which one would you like to see take charge of the NDP? Base: NDP voters (n=420) Total (n=420) QC (n=134) Rest of Canada (n=286) Thomas Mulcair 17% 50% 3% Brian Topp 10% 8% 11% Paul Dewar 3% 0% 4% Libby Davies 2% 1% 3% Peggy Nash 2% 0% 2% Gary Doer 2% 0% 3% Total (n=420) QC (n=134) Rest of Canada (n=286) Megan Leslie 1% 0% 1% Robert Chisholm 1% 1% 1% Peter Julian 1% 0% 1% Pierre Ducasse 1% 0% 1% Charlie Angus 1% 0% 1% Roméo Saganash 0% 1% 0% Nathan Cullen 2% 1% 2% Françoise Boivin 2% 5% 0% Pat Martin 1% 0% 1% Other 2% 1% 3% Don t know 51% 30% 60% Refusal 1% 1% 0%

29 NDP New Leader: Bilingualism is a Necessity 29 About two-thirds of Canadians (68%) believe it is essential for the next NDP leader to be bilingual. This proportion reached 93% in Quebec. Question In your opinion, is it essential for the next leader of the New Democratic Party to be bilingual? TOTAL (n=1,625) Atlan. (n=100) QC (n=402) ONT. (n=600) MB/SK (n=125) AB (n=248) BC (n=150) Yes 68% 63% 93% 60% 54% 48% 70% Non 24% 29% 5% 30% 35% 35% 23% Don t know / refusal 8% 8% 2% 10% 11% 17% 7%

30 Merger of the New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party of Canada 30 Liberal voters are divided on a Question Would you be very favourable, somewhat tfavourable, somewhat unfavourable, or very unfavourable to merger between a merger of the New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party of Canada? the NDP and the Liberal Party of Canada: 46% Satisfaction support the merger and 44% are opposed. Among NDP voters, more than half of them are opposed (58%). TOTAL (n=1,625) LPC (n=243) NDP (n=420) CP (n=594) BQ (n=63) GP (n=68) TOTAL FAVOURABLE 27% 46% 32% 17% 29% 41% Very favourable 7% 13% 8% 5% 8% 5% Somewhat favourable 20% 32% 23% 12% 21% 37% TOTAL UNFAVOURABLE 53% 44% 58% 67% 39% 43% Somewhat unfavourable 22% 24% 26% 22% 22% 24% Very unfavourable 31% 19% 32% 45% 17% 19% Don t know / refusal 19% 12% 11% 16% 32% 15%

31 Ontario preferred to drink something else Orange Crush in Ontario?

32 Battleground Ontario? Liberal support went to Conservative? Liberal support went to NDP? Conservatives more engaged? All of the above? 32

33 VOTE CERTAINTY BY PARTY PREFERENCE APRIL 26, Two-thirds say that their choice for the upcoming election is final. Question Is your choice final, or is it still possible that you may change your vote? Total (n=3 549) PC (n=1 139) LPC (n=824) NDP (n=542) Bloc (n=362) Green (n=216) Final 66% 77% 69% 64% 69% 43% I may still change my vote Don t know / Refusal 30% 21% 30% 35% 29% 54% 4% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3%

34 THE CAUSE OF NDP S INCREASE IN VOTING INTENTIONS 34 Question 1 Recent surveys suggest the NDP and Jack Layton are closing in Michael Ignatieff Almost two thirds of and the Liberals. Why do you think that is? Canadians (63%) think that the fact that NDP and Jack Layton are closing on Total LPC PC NDP Bloc Green Michael Ignatieff and (n=1 008) the Liberals is due to Jack klayton being a Jack klayton is a more impressive more impressive leader than Michael 63% 59% 65% 69% 84% 60% leader than Michael Ignatieff. Ignatieff The NDP platform is as attractive, or more, than that of the Liberals The polls are wrong and the Liberals will finish far ahead of the NDP 16% 12% 12% 25% 6% 21% 5% 11% 8% 2% 3% 5% Don t know / refusal 16% 18% 15% 4% 7% 14%

35 THE CAUSE OF NDP S INCREASE IN VOTING INTENTIONS 35 Question 1 Recent surveys suggest the NDP and Jack Layton are closing in Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals. Why do you think that is? Total (n=1 008) Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC Jack Layton is a more impressive leader than Michael Ignatieff The NDP platform is as attractive, or more, than that of the Liberals The polls are wrong and the Liberals will finish far ahead of the NDP 63% 73% 75% 62% 60% 58% 48% 16% 6% 12% 16% 16% 20% 23% 5% 4% 3% 5% 6% 6% 11% Don t know / refusal 16% 17% 10% 17% 18% 16% 18%

36 WHAT IF CONSERVATIVES WIN BUT ARE DEFEATED BY THE OPPOSITION SOON AFTER 36 If the Conservatives win a minority government and the opposition defeats the government soon after, half of Canadians (40%) think that opposition parties should form a coalition government, while 28% think that another federal election should take place and 30% have no opinion on the issue.. Question 3 If the Conservatives win a minority government and the opposition defeats the government soon after, what would you prefer to see? Opposition parties, with support of the Bloc if necessary, get together to form a coalition government Total (n=1 008) LPC PC NDP Bloc Green 40% 60% 9% 62% 87% 38% Another federal election 28% 9% 57% 14% 2% 26% Don t know / refusal 30% 30% 31% 23% 10% 35%

37 ISSUES OF IMPORTANCE FOR CANADIANS 37 Question 6 Between now and election day, what is the issue that will be most important to you in determining who you will support? Total (n=1 008) LPC PC NDP Bloc Green Social programs, including health care 16% 23% 9% 24% 15% 9% Fear of a Conservative majority 15% 35% 0% 23% 38% 7% Taxes 11% 7% 14% 9% 13% 11% Jobs and economic development 11% 6% 18% 8% 3% 13% Debt and deficit 7% 1% 14% 3% 3% 11% Fear of a coalition government 6% 1% 16% 3% 0% 1% Party leaders and leadership 6% 3% 8% 7% 0% 1% Ethics and governance 5% 8% 2% 8% 4% 5% My local candidate 4% 5% 4% 2% 7% 6% Respect of democratic institutions 3% 5% 1% 3% 2% 0% The environment 3% 0% 1% 2% 2% 31% National unity 1% 1% 1% 2% 10% 0% Canadian foreign policy 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% Other 3% 2% 5% 3% 2% 4% Don t know / refusal 7% 4% 6% 2% 2% 1%

38