HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

Transcription

1 The Star Tribune Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research from Jan , Results for the questions about the presidential race were released on Sunday, Jan. 24, HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from January 18 through January 20, A total of 800 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ±3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all adults were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

2 STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Marco Rubio 38% 35% 21% 6% Bernie Sanders 36% 38% 22% 4% Hillary Clinton 35% 52% 13% - Ted Cruz 33% 45% 17% 5% Chris Christie 32% 48% 18% 2% Ben Carson 31% 50% 15% 4% Jeb Bush 23% 61% 15% 1% Donald Trump 21% 61% 17% 1%

3 *** 307 SELF-IDENTIFIED DEMOCRATS *** MARGIN FOR ERROR ±5.7% STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Hillary Clinton 72% 11% 17% - Bernie Sanders 60% 19% 18% 3% QUESTION: Which of the following candidates would you most like to see get the Democratic nomination for president? (ORDER ROTATED) Hillary Clinton 59% Bernie Sanders 25% Martin O Malley 1% Undecided (NOT READ) 15%

4 *** 236 SELF-IDENTIFIED REPUBLICANS *** MARGIN FOR ERROR ±6.5% STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION Do you recognize the name? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of? RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE Marco Rubio 68% 11% 16% 5% Ted Cruz 63% 18% 12% 7% Chris Christie 50% 30% 16% 4% Ben Carson 48% 38% 7% 7% Donald Trump 34% 36% 30% - Jeb Bush 34% 48% 17% 1%

5 QUESTION: Which of the following candidates would you most like to see get the Republican nomination for president? (ORDER ROTATED) Marco Rubio 23% Ted Cruz 21% Donald Trump 18% Ben Carson 11% Jeb Bush 7% Chris Christie 5% John Kasich 2% Carly Fiorina 2% Rand Paul 1% Rick Santorum 1% Mike Huckabee - Jim Gilmore - Undecided (NOT READ) 9%

6 QUESTION: Looking ahead to the general election in November, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat and Donald Trump, the Republican? CLINTON TRUMP UNDECIDED STATE 43% 38% 19% REGION CLINTON TRUMP UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 57% 30% 13% Metro Suburbs 38% 43% 19% Rest of State 35% 40% 25% SEX CLINTON TRUMP UNDECIDED Men 34% 48% 18% Women 51% 29% 20% AGE CLINTON TRUMP UNDECIDED % 33% 27% % 39% 18% % 40% 18% % 37% 17% INCOME CLINTON TRUMP UNDECIDED <$50,000 47% 30% 23% $50, % 42% 17% PARTY ID CLINTON TRUMP UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 83% 5% 12% Republican 1% 77% 22% Independent 36% 40% 24%

7 QUESTION: Looking ahead to the general election in November, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat and Ted Cruz, the Republican? CLINTON CRUZ UNDECIDED STATE 43% 45% 12% REGION CLINTON CRUZ UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 56% 33% 11% Metro Suburbs 40% 48% 12% Rest of State 35% 53% 12% SEX CLINTON CRUZ UNDECIDED Men 38% 52% 10% Women 47% 39% 14% AGE CLINTON CRUZ UNDECIDED % 41% 18% % 45% 11% % 49% 11% % 41% 11% INCOME CLINTON CRUZ UNDECIDED <$50,000 48% 37% 15% $50, % 48% 11% PARTY ID CLINTON CRUZ UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 83% 6% 11% Republican 1% 93% 6% Independent 36% 47% 17%

8 QUESTION: Looking ahead to the general election in November, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat and Marco Rubio, the Republican? CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED STATE 40% 49% 11% REGION CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 52% 37% 11% Metro Suburbs 40% 52% 8% Rest of State 30% 57% 13% SEX CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED Men 35% 53% 12% Women 45% 44% 11% AGE CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED % 46% 16% % 55% 8% % 48% 12% % 43% 11% INCOME CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED <$50,000 43% 41% 16% $50, % 53% 9% PARTY ID CLINTON RUBIO UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 80% 8% 12% Republican 1% 96% 3% Independent 30% 54% 16%

9 QUESTION: Looking ahead to the general election in November, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Bernie Sanders, the Democrat and Donald Trump, the Republican? SANDERS TRUMP UNDECIDED STATE 53% 37% 10% REGION SANDERS TRUMP UNDECIDED Hennepin/Ramsey 64% 30% 6% Metro Suburbs 43% 47% 10% Rest of State 51% 36% 13% SEX SANDERS TRUMP UNDECIDED Men 47% 45% 8% Women 60% 29% 11% AGE SANDERS TRUMP UNDECIDED % 30% 19% % 37% 9% % 41% 6% % 36% 12% INCOME SANDERS TRUMP UNDECIDED <$50,000 56% 31% 13% $50, % 40% 8% PARTY ID SANDERS TRUMP UNDECIDED DFL/Democrat 87% 2% 11% Republican 14% 80% 6% Independent 49% 38% 13%