Organizing On Shifting Terrain. Understanding the underlying shifts that are shaping polarization and realignment during the 2016 election

Transcription

1 Organizing On Shifting Terrain Understanding the underlying shifts that are shaping polarization and realignment during the 2016 election

2 Increasing Polarization

3 Major Social Shifts Reshape the Political Terrain Crises of economic inequality and the neoliberal economic project Changing role of the United States in the world Coming people of color majority and the end of the white majority

4 Neoliberalism Neoliberalism is a political and economic program with three main platforms: Cutbacks Corporate power Crackdowns: Strengthen the police and military Neoliberalism leads to CRISES

5 Crisis of Inequality

6 Crisis of Neoliberalism

7 Brazil, Russia, India and China Changing Global Role of the US Bric countries will soon contribute over half the world s growth Share of global GOP growth (% based on purchasing power parity $ terms) (forecast) Bric countries 32.2% 46.3% 61.3% G7 countries US, UK, Japan, Germany, Canada, France and Italy 41.1% 19.8% 12.8% Source: IMF

8 End of White Majority Rise of People of Color Majority

9 What meaning do people make of these shifts? Polarization & Instability 99% versus 1%? Working class versus ruling class? White versus people of color? Citizen versus immigrant? US versus China? US versus the world?

10 The rising American electorate and a backlash rooted in angry older white voters

11 What is the Rising American Electorate?

12 Changing Racial Composition of the Electorate

13 Race:åA Key Factor Shaping Political Alignment

14 Voter Turnout Rates by Race

15 Unmarried Women Voters: A Rising Force

16 Women of Color Voters: A Rising Force

17 Obama Romney Other/No Answer Women of Color Are Vote by Gender and Race More Progressive Voters Than White Women 2012 Presidential Election White men: 34% 35% 62% White women: 38% 42% 56% Black men: 5% 87% Black women: 8% Latino men: 5% Latino women: 6% All others: 5% 65% 33% 76% 96% 23%

18 The Rise of Millenials

19 Millenials Are More Progressive Voters Than Older Generations

20 2012 and 2014 Election Behavior: Rising American Electorate

21 Understanding White Backlash

22 Economic Hardship Is Real

23 The Middle Class Is Losing Ground

24 Especially in Regions Most Supportive of Trump

25 Will the Rising American Electorate be the basis for a lasting coalition that can drive a progressive agenda toward governing power in the US? Or will the backlash prevail and reinforce racism, further dismantle the social safety net and solidify the hegemony of right-wing, repressive politics for years to come? It s a question of political struggle. It depends on the work we do in the next few months.

26 The Intense Battle Ahead: What are the aims of the contending candidates and social forces?

27 Core Political Stance Trump Core Political Stance: Rightwing populism based on nationalistic nostalgia and racialized appeals. Clinton Core Political Stance: Opposition to Trump; Democratic Party establishment (militarism and economic neoliberalism, with an emphasis on domestic investment and social liberalism)

28 Potential Impacts Trump Trump has captured the GOP for rightwing racist populism. He has brought the most extreme right armed hate groups out from the margins and given them a foothold in the mainstream. He has thrown up even greater obstacles than before to building multi-racial class unity If elected, Trump threatens a new level of authoritarian rule that may lay the groundwork for an American version of fascism Clinton Clinton s main appeal is being an alternative to Trump. She aims to consolidate the establishment as hegemonic in US politics and win over GOP centrists and neocons to backing her If elected, the Democratic Party may become the establishment party, leaving outsider politics to the right. BUT Clinton is forced to contend with other social forces in the anti-trump coalition - the in-motion communities of color and the left-wing populists Sanders galvanized. How that will play out in actual policy will be decided by struggle before and after election day

29 What Came Out of His What Came Out of the Sanders Campaign? Outcomes Core Political Stance: Left-Wing populism Radical economic vision (restore and expand the New Deal) Race-weak class universalism Campaign? Proved that left-wing populism has a large social base, primarily downwardly mobile white people and young people of all races Emergence of broader movement of down-ballot progressives and leftists Bernie is trying to institutionalize a progressive wing of the Democratic Party via the Sanders Revolution organization, Sanders Institute, and so on. Other efforts to institutionalize a progressive wing are also underway.

30 Left Responses & Strategies We are now in a race between a socially liberal pro-wall Street hawk and a blatantly racist right-wing populist. Defeating that extreme threat means supporting the Democratic Party s Wall Street candidate. But how we do that matters. Now is the time to consolidate the rising electorate, work to win over downwardly mobile white voters and advance messages that challenge racism, neoliberal policies and wealth inequality.

31 Direct action against Trump Strategies Currently In Motion Third party candidate (Jill Stein and Green Party) Uncritical support of Hillary Down-ballot efforts Each of these strategies has important limitations in the critical effort to defeat Trump s right-wing insurgency. We need a more comprehensive left strategy to deal with the challenges of our

32 1. Work for a landslide victory against Trump Components of a Comprehensive Left Strategy: Defeat Electoral engagement with the Rising American Electorate: communities of color, millenials and women. Work to win over sections of the white working class Trump, Build a Tea Party of the Left

33 Components of a Comprehensive Left Strategy 2. Build on the Sanders momentum. Support downballot progressive candidates in local and state-level races. Build and strengthen organizational forms for the long-term battle in the electoral arena at all levels: a Tea Party of the left.

34 3. Build independent organizations for outside Components of a Comprehensive Left struggle to challenge whichever candidate becomes president Coordinate the outside fight with inside efforts. Strategy

35 4. Build a more unified progressive bloc, inspired Components of a Comprehensive Left Strategy by visions for peace, justice, equality and environmental sustainability, and anchored in the multi-racial working class. Current front-line battles: Opposition to the Wall Street economic agenda Anti-racism Anti-militarism

36 This presentation is one module of a three-part elections curriculum consisting of: Organizing on Shifting Terrain: A Changing Electorate and Rising Economic Inequality The Right, the Far Right, and the Rise of Donald Trump The U.S. Electoral System and Progressive Electoral Strategy The curriculum was developed by Linda Burnham, Max Elbaum, Harmony Goldberg, Jason Negron-Gonzales, Tarso Ramos and Bob Wing. The three presentations, the accompanying Facilitators Guides and a Supplementary Resource Guide can be downloaded at To contact us, electioncurriculum@earthlink.net.