Florida 2018: Another Nail-biter Election!

Transcription

1 Florida 2018: Another Nail-biter Election! Dr. Susan A. MacManus, Distinguished Univ. Prof. Amy N. Benner, David Bonanza Research Associates University of South Florida, Tampa Florida League of Cities, FL Nov. 15, 2018 SLIDESHOW FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY

2 2018: EARLY PREDICTION: A DEMOCRATIC WAVE ELECTION President s party almost always loses seats in midterm election Out party more energized, especially when wins popular vote, but loses Electoral College Democrats see real possibility of winning back control of U.S. Senate AND U.S. House; Florida key to both Democrats want to reverse decline in governorships and in state legislatures

3 Early in Florida: 2018 Greater clout in national politics More women & minorities running for and getting elected to various positions (executive, legislative, judicial) at all levels Activism on the upswing: sparked by major events related to social/economic injustices More interest in ancestry; rise in identity politics Growing intergenerational conflicts Rise of independent voters, especially among younger voters disgruntled w/ Ds and Rs

4 FL Election Officials Challenges (Presentation--May, 2018) More voter confusion amendments Greater voter distrust of integrity of voting process Constant monitoring of every action by voter advocacy groups and media; need to step up poll worker training Greater likelihood of legal battles, especially if close election More focus on voter privacy rights More scrutiny of equity in voter outreach More pressure to use understandable ballot language More pressure to explain protections against hacking into election system Greater need for informational efforts

5 Statewide Races: 1% Margin of Victory

6 FL U.S. Senate Race: Toss-Up! Source: Sabato s Crystal Ball, University of Virginia Center for Politics

7 FL Gov Race: Close!

8 Forgotten: Statewide Cabinet Races Attorney General Sean Shaw (D) vs. Ashley Moody (R) Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Jeremy Ring (D) vs. Jimmy Patronis (R) Commissioner of Agriculture & Consumer Services Nikki Fried (D) vs. Matt Caldwell (R) RECOUNT

9 Pre/Post Election Make-Up in Florida Legislature & Congress FLORIDA SENATE: 23 Republicans, 16 Democrats (1 vacancy) NOW: 23 R-17D or 24R-16D RECOUNT Cruz-Young Dist. 18 D ahead FLORIDA HOUSE: 75 Republicans, 41 Democrats (4 vacancies) NOW: 69 R; 49 Ds RECOUNTS (2) Dist. 26, 89 CONGRESS (27 SEATS):+2Ds 16 Republicans, 11 Democrats NOW: 14 Rs, 13Ds Source: Legislature as of August 24, Photos: Wikipedia

10 U.S. Senate Votes Politico 11/6

11 Who Are Florida s Voters? Photo attribution:

12 Party Registration Trend: FL Oct. 2018

13 Over One-Third of Registered Voters are Non-White

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15 Age Diversity

16 Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents Generation classifications: Pew Research Center; events by author

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18 Majority of Gen Z registered voters are nonwhite Graphic created by MacManus; calculated from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System data as of August 2018.

19 More NPAs Among Younger Generations

20 Women are a majority of Florida s registered voters

21 Women Make Up a Much Larger Share of Registered Democrats

22 45% of the state s registered voters live in the I-4 Corridor Graphic created by MacManus; calculated from Florida Division of Elections, Florida Voter Registration System data as of August 2018.

23 Florida s Ideological Make-Up 35% Conservative 36% Moderate 22% Liberal +13 NET CONSERVATIVE Sample size: 11,094 respondents Source: Saad, Lydia. Conservative-leaning states drop from 44 to 39. Gallup.

24 Dems: Key Base Constituencies Women Minorities, including newly-arrived Puerto Ricans Millennials and Gen Xers LGBTQ communities Unions, especially public employee and teachers unions Jewish voters Photo attribution:

25 2/3s of FL Dems Live in 3 Media Markets

26 Dems: Biggest Issues Education Environment Economy Health care Gun control Minority voting rights Criminal justice Immigration TRUMP Photo attribution: Infrastructure/Transport Reproductive rights

27 GOP: Key Base Constituencies Rural voters (high turnout; conservative) Older voters (super voters) Hispanics, including newly-arrived Puerto Ricans without strong party attachment Suburban voters, especially women; families Gun owners Conservative religious communities Agriculture communities Working-class whites Small business owners Photo attribution:

28 Nearly Half of FL Reps Live in I-4 Corridor Media Markets

29 Big Issues: GOP Economy/Taxes/Tariffs Socialism Education (school choice) Government over-regulation Protection of constitutional liberties (Second Amendment) Drugs (opioids) Immigration & border security Religious freedom/abortion Environment/Invasive species Photo attribution:

30 KEY CHALLENGE in 2018? BELIEVABILITY Photo attribution:

31 Media Bias Perceptions Increasing 66% say media not careful to separate fact from opinion; it was 42% in % see great deal of political bias in news coverage, up from 1989 Majority cannot name a source that reports news objectively Source: These results are based on a new Gallup/Knight Foundation survey on trust, media and democracy. The large-scale mail survey of more than 19,000 U.S. adults was conducted Aug. 4- Oct. 2, The historical comparisons are based on a 1984 mail survey conducted by MORI Research for the American Society of Newspaper Editors. Photo attribution:

32 Jump in Primary Turnout: 2014 to 2018 Graphic created by MacManus; calculated from data available from Florida Division of Elections

33 Turnout: Florida General Elections 62%? Source: Graphic created by MacManus using data from Florida Division of Elections

34 Hard to Predict Big Events That Impact Voter Decisions 2017 August September 10 October Confederate Monuments/White Supremacy issues Hurricane Irma strikes Florida #MeToo (hashtag goes viral) 2018 January 21 Women s Marches in Florida (anniversary of Trump inauguration) February 14 Shooting at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland; #NeverAgain June Separating Children from Parents at Border #WhereAreTheChildren? #KeepFamiliesTogether July-August Algae Bloom & Red Tide #algaebloom #redtide

35 Hard to Predict Big Events September October November Kavanaugh Supreme Court Confirmation Battle #WhyIDidn treport; #BelieveSurvivors September 22: Overseas Ballots Mailed October 2-9: Vote by Mail Ballots sent Hurricane Michael hits FL (Oct. 10) The Caravan gets national attention (Oct 15) Fl man sends bomb packages to natl. Dems. (Oct 24) October 27-November 3 In PersonEarly Voting Shooting in Pittsburgh Jewish Synagogue (Oct 29) October 31 TRUMP rally Ft. Myers Nov. 3 TRUMP rally Pensacola Election Day (Nov. 6) Biggest issue for voters?

36 Florida Full of Surprises

37 POLLS: SHORTCOMINGS PROBLEM Inaccurate lots of reasons Guide news coverage that creates what can be a erroneous storyline. Lower response rates Rural areas underrepresented Voter worries about privacy Can NEVER predict turnout, esp. late surges

38 Some Things Don t Change About Florida Midterm Elections

39 Expectations in 2020: CLOSE, AGAIN! Swing State! Graphic source: Policymic.com