Understanding Oklahoma Voters. A Compilation of Studies Conducted Summer 2016

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1 Understanding Oklahoma Voters A Compilation of Studies Conducted Summer 2016 by

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3 How Many Donate?.05% 1%.25% Gave $2600+ Gave $200 - $2,600 Gave Anything No Donation 98.7% Very few people engage in elections beyond voting. Only 1 in 100 give any amount. Only 25 out of a 10,000 give $200 or more and only 5 out of 10,000 gave $2,600 or more to a candidate.

4 General Election Voter Turnout 7 61% 42% 55% Turnout % 68% 45% 67% 47% 63% We do not see a trend toward apathy among those who are registered though their participation in gubernatorial reelects has decreased dramatically. What has changed according to census data, in 2000, 72% of adult Oklahomans were registered to vote; by 2010 it had dropped to. 42%

5 Composition of Senate District % 5.13% 41.03% 21.32% 20.21% Republican Runoff Voters Voted Primary / Not Runoff Registered Republican Not Voting Registered Other Parties Not Registered

6 Senate District 22

7 Senate District 22

8 Voter Turnout Percentage in Recent Elections % of Voters Age 65+ Turnout Percentage 63% 7 42% 34% 26% 42% 42% 42% 39% 27% 33% 2016 GOP Primary 2016 Pres. Primary 2014 General 2014 Rep. Primary 2012 General Election 2012 Pres. Primary Turnout percentages are of registered voters, not those eligible to be voters.

9 Voting Habits Over Time 48% 28% 32% Republican Democrat Independent 43% 44% 46% 47%47% 43% 42% 38% 39%39% 39% 36% 37% 51% 54% 34% 33% 31% 24% 22% 22% 14% 12% 11% 11% 14% 12% 9% 9% Jan-78 Jan-82 Jan-86 Jan-90 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Jan-14

10 Conservatives Since All Strongly Somewhat

11 Media Habits Social Media Usage 32% 33% Multiple Daily 11% 13% Daily Weekly Rarely Never Source of Local News Local TV Newspaper Local Radio Social Media Friends & Family 3% 19% 5% 56% 14% * Percentages may not add to 10 due to refusals and / or rounding. 11

12 Donald Trump Favorable? Trump has rebounded a bit in Oklahoma and is now a net positive. 28% Strongly Favorable; Somewhat Favorable; 9% Somewhat Unfavorable; 34% Strongly Unfavorable; 9% Heard of, No Opinion Favorable Unfavorable 66% 63% 7 48% 43% 57% 38% 34% 51% 29% 23% 48% 44% 43% 46% 56% 32% All Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts 12

13 Hillary Clinton Favorable? Clinton is as negative in the state as is Obama. She unites Republicans. 27% 67% 14% Strongly Favorable; 13% Somewhat Favorable; 9% Somewhat Unfavorable; 58% Strongly Unfavorable; 6% Heard of, No Opinion 74% 34% Favorable 5% 92% 51% Unfavorable 25% 7 32% 22% 74% All Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts

14 Presidential Ballot Trump largely unifies Republicans in the Sooner State and garners support from almost 3-in- 10 Democrats. He does exceptionally well in the minor media markets. Note, Trump only has a 48% favorable rating, but is getting 52% of the vote. 52% Trump; 27% Clinton; 8% Gary Johnson; 13% Undecided Trump Clinton 74% 69% 63% 52% 51% 49% 48% 42% 27% 31% 32% 33% 29% 22% 26% 18% 5% All January Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts

15 Presidential Ballot Test Fully 22% of voters have an unfavorable impression of both major candidates Trump leads this group by a 4-to-1 margin, but most remain undecided. This group gives a 30-point advantage to a generic Republican and will likely break Trump s way or stay home. Note Trump wins among those who say they have a somewhat unfavorable opinion of him. 48% 61% 28% 28% Trump 27% All Favorable Both Unfavorable Both Clinton 7% 41% 23% Somewhat Unfavorable Trump 8% Somewhat Unfavorable Clinton 15 7

16 Direction of Oklahoma Over Time This study represents the highest wrong track number we have ever recorded shattering any negativity we have seen in the last 25 years. 7 39% 56% 58% 55% 32% 31% 24% 62% 56% 57% 53% 46% 47% 57% 35% 35% 32% 27% 26% 43% 39% 48% 28% 43% 48% 36% 38% Right Track Wrong Track 24% 65% 18% 54% 51%51% 48%48%48% 49% 46% 47% 48% 49% 46% 47% 43% 42% 33% 35% 39% 33%34% 38% 38% 34% 31% 32% 43% 43% 42% 59% 42% 36% 39% 28% 66% 23% Jul-93 Sep-94 Oct-95 Jul-97 Oct-98 Nov-99 Sep-00 Jul-01 May-02 Dec-02 Aug-03 Apr-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Aug-06 Jan-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-13 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Sep-13 Nov. -13 Apr.-14 Nov.-14 Jul Aug.-15 Oct.-15 Feb. - May-16

17 Oklahoma Right Track? These are the worst numbers we have seen. Democrats have been solidly negative for quite some time much of the recent negative movement is among Republicans and those in Tulsa. 23% Right Track; 66% Wrong Track; 11% Undecided Right Track Wrong Track 76% 75% 7 66% 62% 61% 64% 57% 31% 31% 26% 23% 22% 21% 17% 13% 8 7 All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA Tulsa DMA Minor DMA 17

18 Fallin Favorable Over Time Favorable Unfavorable 7 56% 61%64% 61% 64%65% 66% 63% 62%58%55%52% 53% 54% 52% 52% 44% 48% 48% 13% 17%23%21% 21% 22% 19% 22% 28%31%32% 42% 39%39% 39% 44% 41% July 09 Jan. 10 April 11 Aug. 11 Dec. 11 April 12 Aug. 12 Oct. 12 Jan. 13 April 13 Sept. 13 Nov. 13 Apr. 14 Jul. 14 Jul- 15 Aug- 15 Nov. 15 Feb. 16 May. 16 Jul

19 Mary Fallin Favorable Fallin s numbers are no longer positive. She now has a significant partisan edge. 41% 19% Strongly Favorable; 22% Somewhat Favorable; 14% Somewhat Unfavorable; 34% Strongly Unfavorable; Heard of, No opinion; 1% Never Heard of 48% 47% 42% 35% Favorable 54% 63% 28% 21% Unfavorable 69% 48% 45% 45% All Men Women Republicans Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media Minor Mkts 7 19

20 Mary Fallin Favorable? Fallin continues to have real strength among senior citizens. Favorable Unfavorable 41% 48% 29% 59% 38% 57% 51% 51% 42% 43% 42% 33% All Under to 64 Over 65 Under $50k $50k- $100k Over $100k 20

21 Generic Legislative Ballot Test Republican Over Time The poor outlook on the direction of the state is taking a bit of a toll on Republican legislative candidates but they still have a 13-point advantage. As the presidential campaign continues, expect this number to widen (When this was asked, Trump had only a 20-point lead over Clinton.) This Republican lead is down from 16 points in January. Democrat 38% 43% 45% 43% 48% 48% 51% 47% 32% 34% 37% 36% 37% 39% 33% 33% 33% 32% 23% 31% 33% 25% 27% 29% 34%

22 State Legislator Generic Ballot? Despite the wrong track numbers and dissatisfaction we see among Republicans, they are still more united than are Democrats. We do see a substantial gender difference. 47% 47% Republican; 34% Democrat; 19% Undecided Republican Democrat 79% 63% 54% 47% 45% 49% 37% 34% 32% 35% 36% 28% 18% 6% 8 7 All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA Tulsa DMA Minor DMA 22

23 Issue Cluster State Legislature? Health and Education issues are followed by economic concerns as the areas currently garnering the most interest. We have seen a slight decrease in liberty and moral issue voters in recent years. Substantial gender and partisan differences exist. 26% Economic Issues; 12% Moral Issues; 7% Public Safety Issues; 33% Societal Issues; 15% Liberty Issues; 7% Undecided Economic Moral Public Safety Societal Liberty 15% 19% 12% 33% 24% 7% 12% 7% 13% 26% 32% 6% 12% 21% 25% 41% 23% 3% 15% 8% 28% 25% All Men Women Republican Democrat 7% 41%

24 Oklahoma Sales Tax Rate? We are starting to see these numbers increase a bit but they are still very low in an historical perspective. Generally, when the too high is below we see almost any effort for increase is successful. We see tax issues that hit a perceived need of the voters succeed when the too high starts as high as. 39% Too High; Too Low; 45% About Right; 6% Undecided 45% 45% 45% 39% 39% 39% 42% Too High Too Low About Right 9% 3% 36% 44% 41% 14% 48% 3% All Men Women Republican Democrat Voted Rep. Primary 36% 39% 17% Voted Dem. Primary 45% 35% 25% 15% 5% 24

25 Consistent with other studies, by a two-to-one margin, Oklahoma voters support raising taxes in order to generate teacher pay raises. Notice, there is a 24-point advantage for Republicans. Tax Raise for Teacher Raises? (Not Boren Proposal) 42% Strongly Favor; Somewhat Favor; 9% Somewhat Oppose; 22% Strongly Oppose; 7%Undecided 62% 63% Favor 58% Oppose 66% 65% 64% 58% 7 31% 34% 28% 34% 28% 25% 31% 34% All Men Women RepublicansDemocrats Minor Mkts. OKC Tulsa 25

26 Boren Proposal Initial Ask This issue starts with a sizeable lead. Democrats and women lead the charge but even among registered Republicans we see a 15-point advantage. 43% Definitely Yes; 17% Probably Yes; 8% Probably No; 26% Definitely No; 6% Undecided 56% 64% Favor 54% Oppose 65% 66% 58% 7 34% 29% 39% 32% 35% 35% All Men Women RepublicansDemocrats Minor Mkts. OKC Tulsa 26

27 Boren Proposal by Age The strongest line comes from age. The issue becomes very competitive among those over the age of 55. Favor Oppose % 8 72% 7 58% 52% 51% 53% 34% 43% 46% 43% 14% 22%

28 Best Option for Despite the support we see for the Boren sales tax proposal, voters really prefer other options for raising teacher pay in fact, only 12% support this option. They would much rather see tax credits cut or even the sales tax base broadened. Republicans are the most in favor of getting rid of tax credits for this purpose. Teacher Pay Raise? 12% Sales Tax Increase; 23% Broaden Sales Tax Base; 45% Cut Tax Credits; 21% Undecided Sales Tax Increase Broaden Sales Tax Base Cut Tax Credits 45% 47% 42% 23% 22% 23% 19% 49% 44% 26% All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA 22% 23% Tulsa DMA 32% 25% 12% 12% 11% 13% 11% 17% Minor DMA

29 Favor School Choice? The concept of school choice is overwhelmingly popular. Among registered Republicans, it is a 4-to-1 winner and approaches 2-to-1 among Democrats. 47% Strongly Favor; 23% Somewhat Favor; 11% Somewhat Oppose; 16% Strongly Oppose; 4% Undecided 7 68% 72% 27% 29% Favor 25% 79% Oppose 34% % 27% All Men Women Republicans Democrats Urban Rural 8 7

30 Favor ESAs? Initial Ask The initial ask on ESAs shows solid majority support and an 18-point advantage. ESAs start more partisan than the other reforms tested. Democrat primary voters actually lean against ESA s and differ from Democrats without a history of voting in primaries by a significant margin. (non-primary voting Democrats 56% support very close to Republicans). 29% Strongly Favor; 25% Somewhat Favor; 11% Somewhat Oppose; 26% Strongly Oppose; 8% Undecided 55% 55% 54% Favor 37% 38% 37% 58% 32% Oppose 49% 45% 57% 34% All Men Women Republicans Democrats GOP Primary Voters 49% 44% Dem Primary Voters Education Savings Accounts often called ESAs--is a proposal which would allow parents to take a portion of the yearly state funding which is currently used to educate their child in a traditional public school and create a personalized account to fund their child s education expenses. These expenses could be customized to include private or parochial school tuition, online education programs, tutoring, and books, and other future college expenses. These Education Savings Accounts would be administered and overseen by the state and would contain taxpayer protections against fraudulent activity or misuse of funds.

31 Favor Cigarette Tax Increase? We see very strong support for $1.50 per pack cigarette tax increase. Among Republicans, the advantage is 28 points and 48 among Democrats. 68% 55% Strongly Favor; 13% Somewhat Favor; 7% Somewhat Oppose; 22% Strongly Oppose; 3% Undecided 62% 73% Favor 62% 73% Oppose 67% 68% 69% % 36% 23% 34% 25% 29% 26% All Men Women Repub. Dem. OKC DMA Tulsa DMA Minor DMA 31

32 Favor Cigarette Tax Increase? Swing voters like somewhat conservative and those undecided on the presidential election are among the most supportive. 68% 63% 69% Favor 73% 68% Oppose 63% 72% % 34% 26% 23% 28% 36% 27% All Voted Rep. Primary Und. State Leg. Generic Ballot Test Und. Presidential Ballot Test Trump and Clinton Unfav. Rep. Fallin Unfav. Somewhat Cons. 32

33 How Vote on Alcohol SQ? Today, this contest is a little closer than we saw in January. 49% Definitely Yes; 11% Probably Yes; 5% Probably No; 31% Definitely No; 4% Undecided Yes No 64% 65% 56% 59% 58% 65% 7 31% 36% 32% 37% 36% 38% 31% January Today Men Women Repub. Democrats OKC Media Tulsa Media 33

34 How Vote on Alcohol SQ? The negative change occurs primarily in the rural southeast, rural northwest and a little bit in central Oklahoma. We saw no change in Tulsa and slight improvement in the rural northeast. Yes No 72% 59% 61% 54% 49% 49% 36% 39% 35% 37% 37% 25% All Northwest Northeast Cent. OK Southwest Tulsa Southeast