2018 FLORIDA ELECTION CYCLE:

Transcription

1 2018 FLORIDA ELECTION CYCLE: BIG CHALLENGES FOR ELECTION OFFICIALS AND CANVASSING BOARDS

2 What We re Already Seeing in Florida State s key role in national politics More women & minorities running for and getting elected to various positions (executive, legislative, judicial) at all levels Activism on the upswing: sparked by major events related to social/economic injustices More interest in ancestry; rise in identity politics Growing intergenerational conflicts Rise of independent voters, especially among younger voters disgruntled w/ Ds and Rs

3 Offices: National and State U.S. Senate Congress (27 seats) Governor CROWDED BALLOT Cabinet (attorney general; chief financial officer; agriculture commissioner State Senate (20 seats even numbered) State House (120 seats) State Attorney (only 20 th Judicial Circuit) Public Defender (only 20 th Judicial Circuit) 3 FL Supreme Court Justices (retention); some Circuit and County Court judges (nonpartisan) Amendments--13 (Legislature; Petition; CRC)

4 2018 MIDTERM ELECTIONS FILING DEADLINES: May 4, 2018 (U.S. Senator, Representative in Congress) June 22, 2018 (Governor, Cabinet positions, State Senators and Representatives) Florida Legislature (as of April 19, 2018): 27 incumbents facing challengers in their respective primary elections : 14 Republicans ; 13 Democrats (Fla Senate: 4 Rs, 3 Ds; Fla House: 10 Rs, 10 Ds)

5 2018: FLORIDA AGAIN NATION S MOST FASCINATING STATE Democrats Republicans? Photo source:

6 2018: WHY DEMOCRATS PREDICTING WAVE ELECTION President s party almost always loses seats in midterm election Out party more energized, especially when wins popular vote, but loses Electoral College Democrats see real possibility of winning back control of U.S. Senate AND U.S. House; Florida key to both Democrats want to reverse decline in governorships and in state legislatures

7 FLORIDA LIKELY TO BE INTENSELY COMPETITIVE AGAIN!

8 CURRENT PARTISAN MAKE-UP IN FLORIDA LEGISLATURE & CONGRESS FLORIDA SENATE: 23 Republicans, 16 Democrats (1 vacancy) FLORIDA HOUSE: 75 Republicans, 40 Democrats (5 vacancies) CONGRESS (27 SEATS): 16 Republicans, 11 Democrats Photo attribution:

9 DEMOCRATS HAVE TO DEFEND MORE U.S. SENATE SEATS THAN REPUBLICANS Picture:

10 HANDICAPPING U.S. SENATE RACES

11 REPUBLICANS HAVE MORE GUBERNATORIAL SEATS TO DEFEND Picture:

12 GUBERNATORIAL RACE RATINGS: APRIL 5,

13 STATE LEGISLATURES: DEMOCRATS HOPING TO REGAIN CONTROL Source:

14 INDEPENDENT VOTERS INCREASING NPA = No Party Affiliation; Source: Florida Division of Elections

15 FLORIDA S IDEOLOGICAL MAKE-UP 35% Conservative 36% Moderate 22% Liberal +13 NET CONSERVATIVE Sample size: 11,094 respondents Source: Saad, Lydia. Conservative-leaning states drop from 44 to 39. Gallup.

16 LATE PRIMARY, LOW TURNOUT

17 FL GENERAL ELECTIONS: TURNOUT DIPS IN MIDTERM YEARS

18 THREE DIMENSIONS OF VOTING RIGHTS REGISTRATION VOTING REPRESENTATION Photos:

19 VOTING RIGHTS ISSUES ACROSS U.S. Registration Registration deadlines & cut-off rules Misinformation/instructions; reading levels Voter caging (registered mail) Purging voter rolls Felon disenfranchisement Voting Underfunding, long lines Voting equipment Photo ID laws, DMV closures Voter privacy Early voting restrictions Disability rights Transgender issues Overseas voters Precinct location Early voting: timing & absentee ballot drop-off Representation: Gerrymandering Photo Source:

20 MOST DEBATED ELECTION PRACTICES: FL Online registration cyber attacks, saves $ FVRS: ineligible voters, deceased Voter roll purging backlash, impact on minorities Absentee: no reason, in writing if diff. address, hard to correct Early voting: number/location/days/hours lack of uniformity Wait times: high turnout, locations, staffing, inefficiency, long ballots, equipment (black/latino precincts) Disabled, touch screen machines Felons, restoration of voting rights Provisional ballots invalid: not registered, wrong precinct whose fault? Security of election equipment, data, Photo source:

21 MORE FIRST-TIME CANDIDATES (NOVICE CANDIDATES) Unaware of election laws Lack of understanding of campaign finance laws Races more nationalized; more outsider consultants recruiting & advising candidates Photos:

22 MORE AGGRESSIVE ACTIVISM Grassroots election/voting rights monitoring focus is voter suppression Rise of intimidation tactics Picture:

23 #ACTIVISM ON THE RISE

24 MORE CYBERSECURITY WORRIES Election Integrity Commission concerns of safety of constituent information Russian hacking attempts during 2016 election Public perceives registration data, voting machines, and election results tabulations as vulnerable Photos:

25 BALLOT ISSUES Ballot length (length and number of amendments and races); long lines at polls Ballot language Where/when to drop off absentee ballots Storage & security Picture source:

26 MORE CONFUSION & MORE REQUESTS FOR EXPLANATIONS Proposed Constitutional Amendments Judicial contests Security of election process, outcome, and equipment Photo source:

27 CONTINUED MAIL COMPLICATIONS Absentee ballots, mail-in ballots All-mail elections Mail system slow Photos: 28-primary-election-could-be-in-your-mailbox-tomorrow

28 POLLING LOCATION ISSUES Accessibility for disabled Privacy of balloting Interactions w/ minors Infringement of religious freedom Security Racial equity More difficulty finding suitable locations Image:

29 MORE CLOSE ELECTIONS & RECOUNTS Costly Lengthy Intense media scrutiny Photo source:

30 STILL DEBATES ABOUT FRAUD Absentee ballots Double registration Bundled registration forms Ineligibles voting Photo:

31 MORE PRESSURE TO IMPROVE OUTREACH The more platforms, the better! Photo source:

32 Living Generations: Major Life Events, Presidents Generation classifications: Pew Research Center; events by author

33 WHAT ABOUT USING FOCUS GROUPS TO DEVELOP MORE TARGETED OUTREACH? Source:

34 LOOKING AHEAD: 2020 U.S. CENSUS UNDER ATTACK Photo sources:

35 AND SO IS PARTISAN REDISTRICTING. U.S. SUPREME COURT DECISION EXPECTED SOON!

36 WORRIES IN DIVERSE FLORIDA: U.S. CENSUS 2020 & REDISTRICTING IN 2022 Citizenship question on Census Changing demographics/definitions Immigrant issues Who draws maps? Photos:

37 THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT Picture:

38 Source:

39 OPINIONS ABOUT MEDIA released January 16, 2018; Media Seen as Key to Democracy But Not Supporting It Well by Zacc Ritter and Jeffrey M. Jones

40 A BIG CHALLENGE IN 2018 BELIEVABILITY Photo attribution: Photo attribution:

41 Source: Weber Shandwick and Powell Tate with KRC Research, Amid Political Party Conflict, Individuals Agree: Erosion of Civility is Harming Our Democracy, March 1, Online poll of 1481 U.S. adults 18 years and older drawn from a national consumer panel; conducted January 2, 2018 to January 17, Eighth wave of studying Civility in America.

42 Source:

43 SUMMARY: CHALLENGES IN 2018 More voter confusion amendments Greater voter distrust of integrity of voting process Constant monitoring of every action by voter advocacy groups and media; need to step up poll worker training Greater likelihood of legal battles, especially if close election More focus on voter privacy rights More scrutiny of equity in voter outreach More pressure to use understandable ballot language More pressure to explain protections against hacking into election system Greater need for informational efforts

44 WHAT YOU CAN DO IN 2018 Step up training of poll workers & frontline employees Need more situational training of election officials in a media-intensive era (cell phone cameras) Prepare as many audio and video educational tools as possible; place on multiple platforms Engage voters in helping improve communication materials Develop video showing voters how registration and election results data are protected from hacking; clear up myths Enact a very comprehensive outreach plan

45 BEST WISHES FOR A SUCCESSFUL 2018 ELECTION CYCLE! Photo sources:

46 Expectations in 2018: Close, AGAIN! Swing State! Graphic source: Policymic.com