Tsunami Preparedness: Schools and Communities

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1 Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan Tsunami Preparedness: Schools and Communities Laura Kong Director International Tsunami Information Center

2 Plan of Talk Tsunamis where, when, what What happened 2009, 2010, 2011 How to Prepare when there is no time basic minimums Examples many ways, many solutions by all repeatedly

3 WDC-MGG/NGDC - ITIC, 2011 Tsunami Sources in the world (>2000 events from 1410 BC to 2011)

5 Where do destructive tsunamis occur? All tsunamis Most are local/regional tsunamis Fewer are distant tsunamis UNESCO/IOC Tsunami Glossary 2008 UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

6 How often do tsunamis occur? : ~1 fatal tsunami/yr 99% from local tsunamis UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

7 WHY IS A TSUNAMI A HAZARD? WAVE HEIGHTS GROW IN SHALLOW WATER Best Case: Quickly Rising Tide Worst Case: Wall of water with rocks and debris Runups > 30 m April 1, 1946 Aleutian Islands earthquake Hilo, Hawaii

8 WHY IS A TSUNAMI A HAZARD? DANGER CONTINUES FOR MANY HOURS HIGH FATALITY HAZARD GLOBAL IMPACT blind to political boundaries Locally, arrives in minutes Distant, travels hours across Ocean 230,000 deaths - 11 countries 1 million displaced Somalia Kenya - 1 Tanzania - 15 Seychelles ,389 Maldives ,262 Myanmar , ,149 Casualties Data source: International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 9 March 2005; TMA 80

away, instr detection Strikes shore later (2+ hours) => TIME for official evacuation Widespread Damage Tsunami

9 2 TSUNAMI THREATS LOCAL / REGIONAL: Generated nearby Strikes shore quickly (in minutes) => NO TIME for official evacuation Education, Awareness Every person recognizes / acts immediately DISTANT / OCEAN-WIDE: Generated far away, instr detection Strikes shore later (2+ hours) => TIME for official evacuation Widespread Damage Tsunami Warning Centre, then People know what to do and where to go - evacuate July 12, 1993,Japan Sea May 22, 1960, Chile tsunami in Hilo

10 Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan 2009, 2010, 2011: Deadly Pacific Tsunamis

11 29 September 2009 M8.0 earthquake and local tsunami Strong shaking felt > 60 s, possible > 2 min Tsunami arrived min after EQ Observed runup m in Samoa, Am Samoa, Tonga Extensive coastal dmg (e.g., structures, reefs destroyed) Casualties (191): Samoa (149), Am Samoa (34), Tonga (9) Complicated double event doesn t matter to public at time Early Warning Existing international alert system (PTWC): 11 min for 1 st unofficial estimate (16 min for official). Improvements through intl data sharing discussed since 2007 Local tsunami alerts require immediate action Don t wait!

12 29 Sept 2009 South Pacific Tsunami Samoa American Samoa Tonga: 191 deaths Pre-event awareness / education saved lives - For last decade, continuously , 2008 Pacific-wide tsunami exercise - Sept 2010 AS Disaster Preparedness month People heeded Natural Warning Signs - Earthquake shaking a wake-up call - Small receding wave ~10 min after Tsunami coming Head inland and to high ground 1 st large damaging wave min after Few died returning before it was safe (to help)

all levels of government Washington Emergency Management

13 Exercise and Drills Drill evacuation of schools and communities Exercise communications protocols Exercise all levels of government Washington Emergency Management Division UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

14 Tsunami Exercise / Drills Indonesia, Samoa

15 Tsunami Exercise / Drills Samoa

16 27 February Chile M8.8 earthquake and local tsunami Strong shaking felt for several minutes Tsunami arrived min after EQ 156 tsunami deaths Observed runups 10+ m, 50 m splash Extensive coastal dmg; destructive waves for 3-4 hours Few casualties; good building codes Coastal residents aware (remember 1960, signage/inundation maps, education, reminder 2005/2007), but tourists were not Early Warning PTWC Regional (+10 min 1 st unofficial, +12 official warning) Local tsunami alerts require immediate action Heed Natural Warnings Do not wait for official alerts Preparedness, Education, Awareness key for success

17 11 March Japan M9.0 earthquake and local tsunami Strong shaking felt for several minutes Tsunami arrived min after EQ 20,000+ tsunami deaths Observed runups m, 40 m up valley, up to 5-6 km inland Extensive structural damage, despite good building codes Japan known for tsunami preparedness, but tsunami was bigger (bigger than 1896 / 1933 Sanriku ) Early Warning JMA National (+3 min initial; +28 min upgraded warning) EQ Early Warning worked, but problems with false aftershocks GPS off-shore, surface buoy confirms ~15 min after eq Local Warnings (sirens) work, but it is not enough Heed Natural Warnings Do not wait for official alerts Education, Awareness key for success Forecast justify evacuation (Japan, Hawaii, Chile) - How high?

18 March Meiji-Sanriku 2011 Cause of Death 92.4%: Drowning 4.4%: Crushed 1.1%: Fire 2%: Unknown 1896 Meiji- Sanriku

19 Cause 1896 Meiji-Sanriku of Death - Past earthquakes 1923 Kanto EQ Total deaths: 105,385 Fire: 87.1% Collapsed house: 10.5% In the factory: 1.4% 1896 Meiji- Sanriku Flow out or buried: 1.0%

20 Cause of Death - Past earthquakes 1896 Meiji-Sanriku 1995 Kobe (Hanshin Awaji) Death: 6,434 Missing: 3 Crushed: 83.3% Fire: 12.8% Unknown: 3.9%: 1896 Meiji- Sanriku

Introduction Call for Action 26 December 2004 230,000 dead, 500,000 injured, 1 million

better equip individuals and communities to withstand them.

reducing the deadly affect of such natural disasters.

21 Introduction Call for Action 26 December ,000 dead, 500,000 injured, 1 million displaced, $8 billion in damages We cannot stop natural calamities, but we can and must better equip individuals and communities to withstand them. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan Anticipating, educating and informing are the keys to reducing the deadly affect of such natural disasters. Unfortunately such activities have not been given priority. UNESCO Director-General, Koïchiro Matsuura, 3 January 2005 UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

22 UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

23 Tsunami Awareness EQ Tsunami End-to-End Tsunami Warning Country Alert System TSUNAMI WARNING! EVACUATE Emerg Alert System & Mass Media TWC Intl / Natl Natl / Provincial /Local Govt UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center Public ITIC, SeismicReady Consulting 2009, after Japan Cabinet Office 2005

24 Key Strategies Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan

25 Early Warning System Saves Lives Proper Instruments detect early Warning informs Awareness enables Preparedness guides Planning means faster response Mitigation Countermeasures reduce impact Strong/safe buildings / wise land-use Stakeholder Coordination facilitates High-level Advocacy sustains

26 Tsunami Public Awareness - Localization Japan ADRC Samoa Know what to do: Earthquake 1 st, then tsunami

28 Tsunami Evacuation Map event Abredeen, Washington Local tsunami evacuation maps developed from inundation modeling, mapping, and community input UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

29 Evacuation Problems? Issues: No high ground exists No time to go inland to high ground Special needs populations Solutions: Vertical evacuation Seaside, Oregon UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

30 Considering Vertical Evacuation? If No High Ground, No Time, Traffic Designating tsunami-safe structures Engineering response to tsunami loading Vertical evacuation, Waikiki, Hawaii, 1994

31 How high is high enough? Hard countermeasures Soft countermeasures Human response?

32 How high is high enough? Vertical Evacuation Rikuzen Takata Kamaishi Minami Sanriku

33 How to Prepare basic minimums Tsunami are no-notice, rapidly evolving hazards; there will be no time to discuss /deliberate, therefore you must be ready. Pre-planning agencies/responders, businesses, schools, families, individuals Practiced plans to ensure familiarity (no panic)

Response starts with Preparedness Disaster Risk Reduction Response Mitigation Planning & regulations Preparedness Awareness & education Disaster Response to the disaster Warning People Evacuation

34 Response starts with Preparedness Disaster Risk Reduction Response Mitigation Planning & regulations Preparedness Awareness & education Disaster Response to the disaster Warning People Evacuation Technical Measures Contingency Plans Search & Rescue Early Warning Humanitarian Affairs Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Actions in response to the warnings: Warning Dissemination & Evacuation Focus on SOP

35 Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan The Way Forward Being Practical Priorities: Local Tsunamis 1 hr or less How will you know Natural Warnings What will you do? Evacuation Map, Vertical Evacuation in strong structures

State, Local govt Important for distant tsunamis Informal Information Friends, neighbors,

36 Communicating Alerts Tsunami Warning Information Natural Tsunami Warnings Strong coastal earthquake shaking Rapid sea level changes Roaring sound Official Information Federal, State, Local govt Important for distant tsunamis Informal Information Friends, neighbors, relatives Media, SMS, social networks UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

37 How to Improve Tsunami Response Pre-event public education/outreach workshops, town meetings, focus groups, etc Know tsunami natural warning signs Have evacuation maps Know evacuation routes/evacuation assembly areas Know community support network Have family plan and preparedness kit Know response for local and distant tsunamis Know community warning system UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

38 Key Stakeholders - Community Preparedness Local Government Individuals and Household School Community Community Preparedness UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center Indonesian Institute of Science Irina-lipi

39 Experiments (Japan PARI, 2010) Inundation height is about 50cm Inundation speed is about 4.0m/s

only ) (men) falling 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% children 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.

40 Probability of falling or sliding 確率 Preliminary Results: Probability of falling or sliding sliding 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 転倒等確率 ( 男性 ) Men 転倒等確率 Women ( 女性 ) For 転倒率 falling ( 男性 only ) (men) falling 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% children 浸水深 (m ) Inundation depth (m) Tsunami Warning in Japan * Tsunami Height is 50cm Arikawa, Japan PARI, 2010

Developing Community Resiliency Seaside, OR Tsunami

connected, Passionate Advocate for safety Communication,

Community-based decisions Receive / respond to warnings

41 Developing Community Resiliency Seaside, OR Tsunami Outreach Coord Identify a Tsunami Champion Locally connected, Passionate Advocate for safety Communication, Organizing Volunteer-raising Become TsunamiReady (USA) Community-based decisions Receive / respond to warnings - Plans Education start in schools Evacuation Maps, Signag Exercises

42 Drill Common messages Indonesia USA - Washington Thailand, USA (Hawaii) Chile

43 ADVICE Be Prepared. Be Aware. Be educated. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst Don t delay response Engineer Appropriately. Codes and Enforcement Primary is Life Safety Design for community resilience Design for economic recovery Educate and Train everyone Increase public awareness of threat /required response Develop effective warning systems and evacuation plans Practice, practice, practice. UNESCO/IOC-NOAA International Tsunami Information Center

44 Workshop of School Earthquake and Tsunami Safety in APEC Economies Reducing Risk and Improving Preparedness October 2011, Taipei, Taiwan Thank You Laura Kong Director International Tsunami Information Center

HISTORY Regional TWS

Dr. Laura S. L. Kong, Director International Tsunami Information Centre HISTORY Regional TWS 1997: ITSU XVI noted need for due to high seismic hazard, destructive tsunami history 1989: TWSP Master Plan