10 Worst Disasters (fatalities) in the past 3 decades

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1 Kenji Okazaki, Professor Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies Kyoto University, Japan 1 10 Worst Disasters (fatalities) in the past 3 decades Nation Disaster Year Death 1 Indonesia, others Eq/tsunami 2004 over 300,000 1 Haiti Earthquake 2010 over 300,000 3 Bangladesh Cyclone/flood ,000 4 Myanmar Cyclone/flood 2008 over 130,000 5 China Earthquake ,000 6 Pakistan Earthquake 2005 over 80,000 7 Iran Earthquake ,000 8 Venezuela Flood ,000 9 Iran Earthquake , Armenia Earthquake ,000 Deadly disasters occur in developing countries (10/10) Deadly disasters occur mostly in Asia (7/10 ) Deadly disasters are mostly caused by earthquakes (7/10 ) Unprecedented disasters have been increasing (6 in 2000 s) 2 1

2 What are the most important lessons from the past disasters? Earthquakes: Warning is not possible Hundreds of thousands people would not be killed if they would have constructed safe houses and would have retrofitted their vulnerable houses Tsunamis, Floods, and Cyclones: Warning is possible Hundreds of thousands people would not be killed if they would have evacuated promptly 3 Vulnerable houses to earthquakes in the world Adobe Brick Stone Timber Most of houses are non-engineered, being vulnerable to earthquakes. Most of deaths in earthquakes are caused by collapse of their own houses 4 2

3 1955 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster in Japan Approx. 90 % of the victims (about 5,000) were killed by their own houses, mostly old timber houses. Vulnerable houses magnified the scale of disaster. Collapsed houses blocked roads, and hampered evacuation, relief, and fire fighting activities, and spread fires After 1995 Earthquake, The Act to promote retrofitting was enacted in Most of Japanese citizens are aware that vulnerable houses would collapse and kill them in earthquakes. Techniques for retrofitting are affordable. Financial assistance for seismic diagnosis and retrofitting is available. Yet, people have many reasons not to retrofit their vulnerable houses Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami No warning, no evacuation Over 300,000 people were killed mostly by tsunami waves If they would have evacuated promptly, they would no have been killed. 6 3

4 Cyclone Damages in Bangladesh Casualties have been drastically decreasing Cyclone >> 300, ,000 deaths Cyclone >> 140,000 deaths Cyclone >> 4,200 deaths - Effective and practical warning system - Construction of cyclone shelters No. of shelters Deaths 7 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster, 11 March, 2011 Approx. 19,000 were killed or missing mostly by Tsunami caused by the M9.0 Earthquake. Kamaishi, Iwate Onagawa, Miyagi Rikuzen-takata (Iwate) 8 4

5 Many people did not evacuate promptly although they received warnings People in this region knew the tsunami would strike after a strong earthquake from the history. Repeated Tsunamis Meiji Sanriku Tsunami (1896), Showa Sanriku Tsunami (1933), Chile Earthquake Tsunami (1960), etc. Tsunami warning was issued 3 minutes after the earthquake. People had approx. half an hour or more before the tsunami stroke. Most municipalities instructed people to evacuate promptly. Yet, many people were reluctant to evacuate promptly. Why? 9 Why did not people evacuate immediately after the tsunami warning? Underestimated tsunami because of their past experiences Excessive trust in infrastructure (high sea walls) Looking for their children/elderly people Taking care of the disabled or handicapped Looking for money, valuables, bank notes, etc. Tried to evacuate by cars and were stuck Some people did not receive the warning 10 5

6 Motivation for safety Individual decision making is crucial for disaster reduction Few house owners invest for improvement of houses - Unless every house owner makes decision to invest in improvement of safety of the house, earthquake loss cannot be reduced. Many people do not evacuate immediately after warning - Unless every person makes decision to evacuate immediately, the warning system would not be effective. 11 People are not easily motivated for actions to avoid disaster risk - Normalcy bias and heuristics Risk perception is biased and not rational - Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky). People are risk-seekers when the choice involves loss. (People are risk-averse when the choice involves interest.) - Future uncertain loss is psychologically much discounted. - Investment for safety would be waste if any disaster would not occur within either the life of the house or the investor. 12 6

7 How can we convince people to take actions before a super disaster hits Policy development and institutionalization for safer communities Education, training, and awareness raising Community-based disaster management 13 Policies to promote retrofitting of existing vulnerable buildings in Japan Amendment of Building Standard Law Acts to improve building safety Promotion of technical development Financial assistance for retrofitting Earthquake insurance Training and education Information Dissemination, development of Simplified Seismic Diagnosis, etc. 14 7

8 Simplified seismic diagnosis for houses 15 Financial assistance for retrofitting of vulnerable buildings Seismic evaluation of houses 2/3 of the cost is subsidized by the national & local government Seismic retrofitting of houses - 23% or more of the cost is subsidized jointly by the national and local governments - Low interest rate for the loan - Deduction (10% of the cost) from Income Tax - Reduction (1/2 for three years) of Property Tax Yet, only few people have retrofitted their house in Japan 16 8

9 Paradigm shift is necessary Current vicious cycle for unsafer communities Large casualty/damage by earthquakes/floods Support for recovery locally, nationally, internationally Increase of vulnerable communities No incentive for safer communities 17 Proposed cycle for safer communities Decrease of victims and recovery cost Support for safer communities locally, nationally, internationally Increase of safer communities Strong incentives for safer communities 18 9

10 Roles of international societies for disaster reduction Local governments should motivate people for safer communities proactively National governments should motivate the local governments for safer communities proactively International societies (like EU-Japan) should motivate the national governments proactively, i.e. less assistance for reactive policies, and more assistance for proactive policy development. 19 Thank you! Kenji Okazaki Professor Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies Kyoto University, Japan